• Defense outlook 2015: A global survey of defense-industry executives
    Today’s leading defense executives offer their insights.
    April 2013 | byJohn Dowdy and Melanie Taylor
    http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/manufacturing/defense_outlook_2015

    Les prévisions des #marchands_de_la_mort

    In December 2012, we surveyed a small group of senior executives from leading aerospace and defense companies around the globe, 20 in total, to find the pulse point of the industry: what will the next three years hold? We invited executives to share their views on topics such as market outlook and overall trends, industry restructuring, and growth prospects. About three-quarters of the executives surveyed were C-level leaders at their organization—CEO, COO, CFO, CMO, or president—while the others were vice presidents or general managers. Our sample was geographically diverse, with two-thirds of executives from Europe and the Middle East; one-third were from the Americas. Most lead companies or divisions with at least $5 billion in revenues.

    Respondents agreed on many topics, especially the somber outlook for global defense spending. With only one exception, executives see global spending declining over the next three years. They see the defense industry changing, and they are all taking measures to adapt. Leaders are preparing to meet the challenge of evolving customer needs, especially the quest for affordable products, and expect to be active in corporate restructuring. Companies intend to find growth in international markets such as India and the Middle East. Finally, executives see growth potential in commercial aerospace, services, unmanned systems, and cybersecurity, with interesting differences of opinion on the relative attractiveness of these opportunities.

    A shrinking market
    When asked about the outlook for the global market, the near-universal expectation is for a decline, but executives disagree on the extent of the slump. About two-fifths believe that global market revenues will decrease between 1 and 5 percent, and one-fifth see a decline of more than 20 percent. The rest expect something in between.

    We also asked respondents about the outlook in the markets in which they are active, and found some clearly delineated differences. Asia-Pacific and the Middle East were seen by most as pockets of moderate growth, offsetting moderate to significant decreases in Europe and North America. South America and Africa were largely predicted to either remain the same or have slight increases.

    #armement #moyen-orient