Deux études sur le #climat sorties hier :
l’une (▻http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0081648) disant que l’objectif de 1000 milliards de tonnes de #carbone generalement associé à un réchauffement de +2°C est beaucoup trop haut et qu’il doit être revu à 500 milliards pour éviter de terribles consequences.
Sachant qu’on en est actuellement à 575 milliards...
▻http://www.trillionthtonne.org
Study Rebuts IPCC, Calls For More Severe Emissions Cuts
▻http://www.climatecentral.org/news/study-proposes-far-more-stringent-carbon-emissions-cuts-16794
The study found that a 3.6°F [2°C] warming target, which many experts already consider to be extremely ambitious given recent emissions trends and the slow progress in international climate diplomacy, would actually commit the globe to much more warming over the longer term, as various slow-moving feedbacks in the climate system kick in, such as the buildup of deep ocean heat content.
The study recommended that fossil fuel emissions should decline by 6 percent per year starting immediately.
... L’autre (▻http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=18373) concerne les changements abrupts causés par le réchauffement (même si celui-ci est progressif), que ce soit l’impossibilité des especes animales à s’adapter, la chute des rendements agricoles ou les consequences de la hausse du niveau des mers.
Gradual Climate Changes Could Cause Sudden Impacts
▻http://www.climatecentral.org/news/gradual-climate-changes-could-cause-sudden-impacts-16792
Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities have already altered the climate. Most changes have been gradual, but the possibility of abrupt shifts concerns the scientific community. Anthony Barnosky, a paleoecologist at University of California, Berkeley, likened gradual changes to being able to see the road while driving. With unexpected changes, the “road drops out from under you,” he said at a press conference.