Support For Ukraine’s Pro-War Parties Keeps Plunging

/support-for-ukraines-pro-war-parties-ke

  • Support For Ukraine’s Pro-War Parties Keeps Plunging - Business Insider
    http://www.businessinsider.com/support-for-ukraines-pro-war-parties-keeps-plunging-2014-9

    Polling of Ukrainian voters since the ceasefire in the civil war was negotiated on September 5 reveals that large, growing majorities of Ukrainians throughout the country are in favour of keeping to the ceasefire terms and stopping hostilities. The only political party Ukrainian voters say they support to do this is President Petro Poroshenko’s Solidarity bloc, an alliance with Vitaily Klitschko, Yury Lutsenko and Olga Bogomolets.

    Ukrainian politicians, including the current Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk and former prime minister Yulia Timoshenko, are losing support, the voters say, because they favour war in the Donbass, sanctions against Russia, and military intervention of NATO on Ukrainian territory. Yatseniuk and Timoshenko are leading blocs they are calling Patriots of Ukraine and Fatherland in the campaign for parliamentary seats to be decided on October 26. On current polling trends, their voters across the country will number less than 5%, the threshold for winning party seats in the new Verkhovna Rada.

    Also tested in last week’s polling are figures from western Ukraine, who have dominated the military and police ministries in Kiev until recently, and who are calling for NATO arms and US sanctions to fight Russia until President Vladimir Putin is toppled. They include Oleg Lyashko and his Radical Party; Oleg Tyagnibok’s Svoboda (“Freedom”), and Dmitry Yarosh’s Pravy Sektor (“Right Sector”).

    The new poll results show that voter support for them is evaporating since the ceasefire – in the case of Tyagnibok and Yarosh (Svoboda, Pravy Sektor) dwindling to single-digit numbers not larger than the pollster’s measure of statistical error. More than three-quarters of Ukrainian voters, including those who condemn the separatist movement in the Donbass, want a negotiated peace and end to war.


    la première colonne donne le pourcentage des répondants, la seconde en pourcentage des opinions exprimées (sans les sans-opinions et indécis)

    Rappel : il y a autour de 200 partis… la moitié des députés est élue au scrutin uninominal à un tour, l’autre à la proportionnelle, avec un seuil de 5% (des suffrages exprimés, je crois, mais n’arrive pas à en trouver confirmation)

    Évolution dans le temps


    Se reporter au tableau précédent pour la légende de l’image, les courbes des listes étant présentées par résultats décroissants.

    La dynamique actuelle est massivement pro-Porochenko. Son discours très belliciste de Washington est destiné à l’exportation : c’est ce que les « alliés » attendent de lui, mais va clairement à l’encontre de ses intérêts électoraux.

    Pour les circonscriptions locales et vu le système, difficile d’imaginer qu’il n’en sortent pas un bon nombre de potentats locaux ou leurs affidés plutôt représentatifs donc de la politique « à l’ancienne »…

    source : sondage SOCIS du 5 au 10 septembre
    http://www.socis.kiev.ua/ua/press/rezultaty-sotsiolohichnoho-doslidzhennja-ukrajina-na-starti-vyborchoji-ka