26 juillet et 2 août 2006 : au pifomètre, que pensent les chiites ? “Everyone is for Hizballah now !”
À la lecture des « analyses » prodiguées par les principaux chefs du 14 Mars qu’il a rencontrés pendant la guerre de 2006 (de Joumblatt/Hamadé à Gemayel/Geagea en passant par Siniora), Jeffrey Feltman pourrait conclure que :
– la popularité du Hezbollah est en chute libre chez les chiites,
– si le Hezbollah avait eu la moindre popularité dans les autres communautés, celle-ci a disparu (et Aoun, allié du Hezbollah, est abandonné par ses électeurs chrétiens),
– le Hezbollah sait qu’il va perdre la guerre, il a peur, il veut un cessez-le-feu pour sauver ce qu’il lui reste,
– une invasion terrestre est ce que redoute le plus le Hezbollah, car il serait alors balayé.
C’est, en gros, ce que lui ont répété tous ses interlocuteurs. C’est, aussi, largement là-dessus que s’est fondée la propagande d’après guerre.
Le 26 juillet, Feltman tâte le terrain chez des chiites a priori pas hostiles. (C’est-à-dire, dans le jargon de Feltman, des « chiites modérés ».)
►http://wikileaks.org/cable/2006/07/06BEIRUT2474.html
Le premier, qui s’est pourtant présenté aux élections contre l’alliance Amal-Hezbollah, l’insulte carrément :
Riad al-Asad, a moderate Shia politician who had run against the Amal-Hizballah alliance in the 2005 parliamentary elections, reacted angrily to polstaff’s call. His colorful reply, after uncharacteristic profanities, was, “Everyone is for Hizballah now!”
Les interlocuteurs suivants confirment la popularité du Hezbollah parmi les chiites :
Moderate Shia intellectual Ibrahim Shamseddine was more cordial, but delivered the same message. Hizballah has more supporters and sympathizers in the Shia community than ever, he said. There is a growing conviction in the Shia community that if Hizballah were to disarm, “they” would pick us Shia off one by one. USG calls for a “New Middle East” have added to the anxiety of the Shia community, fearing the USG may target them next, according to Shamseddine. He added that most Shia believe that the USG is refusing to stop the war, so they are rallying to Hizballah.
Shia journalist Abbas Sabbagh told us that Shia support for Hizballah is still strong. He reported that Hizballah officials remain self-confident despite the Israeli attacks. They are enthusiastic about how Hizballah has been able to keep up its rocket attacks on northern Israel. Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah’s recent televised speech was designed to encourage his Shia constituency and to hold them together, according to Sabbagh.
Le 2 août, Feltman sonde à nouveau l’ambiance locale. Cette fois, ses interlocuteurs lui indiquent que la popularité du Hezbollah est forte même en dehors de la communauté chiite.
http://wikileaks.org/cable/2006/08/06BEIRUT2518.html
Timur Goksel, ancien porte-parole de la FINUL :
Goksel said that Hizballah has already won in the minds of the Shia population, and much of the non-Shia population, by standing up to the IDF this long.
[...]
He was recently surprised to see Sunnis supporting Hizballah and calling them heroes. Goksel commented that Hizballah will likely come out of the conflict stronger for which “we will all pay the price.”
Un autre interlocuteur :
Ali Osseirran, a Shia MP nominally in Speaker Berri’s parliamentary bloc, told us that in confessionally diverse Sidon, Shia, Sunni, and Christian residents are showing solidarity with Hizballah.
L’autre prétention qui ressort de toutes les discussions de l’ambassadeur avec les chefs du 14 Mars, c’est : le Hezbollah a peur, il sait qu’il ne peut pas gagner, il faut une invasion terrestre qui achèvera de l’éliminer.
Voici ce qu’en disent les témoignages du 26 juillet :
He [Sabbagh] said that Hizballah is “not unhappy” with the IDF ground incursion into Maroun el-Ras and Bint Jbeil because it provides Hizballah a pretext to keep fighting, this time to liberate Lebanese land.
Separately, former UNIFIL spokesman Timur Goksel told econoff that he saw the Israeli ground incursion as exactly what Hizballah wanted. Goksel’s contacts in Hizballah told him that they hope “Israel stays awhile.” Hizballah officials told Goksel that only 17 Hizballah fighters had delayed the Israeli advance on Maroun el-Ras and exacted a heavy price on the IDF. [...] Hizballah officials were further encouraged, according to Goksel, because the heavy fighting that bloodied Israeli forces in Maroun el-Ras and Bint Jbeil was carried out by local Hizballah militiamen, not their elite “Special Forces.” According to Goksel, Hizballah is holding back its best fighters in the event of a larger Israeli invasion.
[...] An invasion would provide a convenient distraction and a ready justification to continue fighting.
Le 1er août (rapport du 2 août), ce qu’il entend devrait achever de le convaincre que ses interlocuteurs du 14 Mars lui mentent éhontément.
Former UNIFIL spokesman Timur Goksel, Shia journalist Abbas Sabbagh, and MP Ali Osseirran all assessed that Hizballah believed it was winning the war with Israel.
[...]
Analyzing Hizballah military tactics, Goksel said that Hizballah is waiting for Israel to occupy southern Lebanon. Then Hizballah can begin its guerrilla operations in earnest and “it will get really ugly.” As he reported last week, Goksel said that it appears Hizballah is using only local militiamen to combat the limited Israeli ground incursions thus far. Hizballah is keeping its elite fighters in reserve to counter a larger invasion.
Abbas Sabbagh confirme, et Feltman insère l’intertitre « Morale high » :
Shia journalist Abbas Sabbagh based in south Beirut told us that morale among Hizballah fighters and the Shia populace is high. He did not see how any Israeli military campaign can defeat Hizballah at this point.
Et pour Ali Osseirran, la popularité du Hezbollah vient, avant tout, de sa résilience malgré les attaques israéliennes :
Hizballah’s support in the Shia community remains high not only because of the perceived brutality of Israeli tactics, but because of the perception that Israel’s military campaign has been ineffective against Hizballah.
#cablegate #Liban
