Obama : Striking Syria risks hitting chemical weapons sites
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2013/06/18/Obama.html
La partie la plus significative à mon avis,
“We can’t have the situation of ongoing chaos in a major country that borders a country like Jordan which in turn borders Israel,” he said, adding Washington has “serious interests there and not only humanitarian interests.”
Syrie (16 juin 2013)
Huge blast shakes Damascus military airport
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/17/explosion-shakes-damascus-military-airport
Une vingtaine de membres des forces gouvernementales auraient été tués dans un attentat à la voiture piégée dans Damas près de l’aéroport.
L’Égypte coupe toute relation avec Damas, annonce Mohamed Morsi - ÉGYPTE - FRANCE 24
http://www.france24.com/fr/20130615-legypte-coupe-definitivement-tout-lien-damas-annonce-mohamed-mors
« Le Hezbollah doit quitter la Syrie et ce ne sont pas des paroles en l’air. Il n’y a pas de place pour le Hezbollah en Syrie. »
Egypt cuts relations with Syrian government - Associated Press - POLITICO.com
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/06/egypt-cuts-syria-government-relations-92851.html
Egypt’s Islamist president announced Saturday that he was cutting off diplomatic relations with Syria and closing Damascus’ embassy in Cairo, decisions made amid growing calls from hard-line Sunni clerics in Egypt and elsewhere to launch a “holy war” against Syria’s embattled regime.
...
The rally that Morsi addressed on Saturday was called for by hardline Islamists loyal to the Egyptian president to show solidarity with the people of Syria. However, Morsi also used the occasion to warn his opponents at home against the use of violence in mass protests planned for June 30, the anniversary of his assumption to power.
Egypt’s top bureaucracy advised against Morsi move on Syria - Politics - Egypt - Ahram Online
http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/74122.aspx
The announcement that Egypt will sever all ties with Syria, made by President Mohamed Morsi while addressing thousands of Muslim Brotherhood members at Cairo Stadium Saturday night, reflects a decision made by the president against the advice of top bureaucratic aides, informed government sources say.
The decision was pronounced in the course of an otherwise fiery speech where the president in a high pitch insisted that “Hezbollah should leave Syria.”
It came in the wake of several activities among Islamist figures who underlined the need to support Sunni Syrians against Hezbollah and the Shia-offshoot regime. It also came back to back with a US announcement that it will provide arms for Syrian groups who are fighting — alongside foreign jihadis — to remove the Alawite regime of Bashar Al-Assad.
While some government sources said they were briefly notified of the presidential decision, in order to take the necessary logistical steps ahead of the announcement, others said they only knew of the decision when it was announced at the Muslim Brotherhood event on Saturday night.
According to the informed sources, who spoke to Ahram Online on condition of anonymity, Morsi was advised against the move by some of his top bureaucratic aides who insisted that the move would antagonise the Syrian regime against any mediation forums that have been proposed.
Morsi uses Syria as a mobilisation tool: Salafist Nour party - Politics - Egypt - Ahram Online
http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/74086.aspx
Nader Bakkar, whose party has been at odds in recent months with the ruling Muslim Brotherhood, criticises Morsi’s new stance on Syria
Salafist Al-Nour party spokesman Nader Bakkar says the position President Mohamed Morsi announced at the Cairo Stadium’s indoor venue Saturday night contradicts earlier statements Morsi made.
“The president’s [new line] is not in line with the statement he made earlier in Moscow on the similarity of the Egyptian and Russian stance [towards Syria],” Bakkar tweeted, referring to Morsi’s agreement in April with Russia on the importance of maintaining channels of communication with the Syrian regime.
During the mass rally attended by 20,000 Islamists, President Morsi announced Egypt was cutting all diplomatic ties with Syria.
(...)
Bakkar charged that the timing of the event held by the presidency adds fuel to the fire for mobilisation and counter-mobilisation before 30 June.
The ’Rebel’ 30 June protests are set to demand early presidential elections. ’Rebel’ aims to gather 15 million signatures to withdraw confidence in the president - outnumbering the 13.2 million votes that put Morsi into office in the June 2012 presidential elections. The campaign had gathered 7 million signatures by the end of May.
In a phone interview on Al-Qahera Al-Youm television show, Bakkar accused the presidency of using several recent events to mobilise against upcoming anti-government protests.
On Wednesday, a joint press conference of a number of Islamist groups, including Gamaa Islamiya, the centrist Wasat Party, and the Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party (FJP), from which Morsi hails, said they would hold a rally to “denounce violence” on 21 June, warning that figures from the Mubarak regime plan to use violence as part of the opposition protests.
Un législateur russe senior et le gouvernement de la Syrie accusent les États-Unis de fabriquer la preuve d’utilisation d’armes chimique par le régime de Bashar Al-Assad pour justifier l’intervention au 27ème mois de guerre civile.
http://www.businessinsider.com/us-accused-of-fabricating-syria-evidence-2013-6#ixzz2WEhzI6TI
Syrie.
Utilisation d’armes chimiques par le régime syrien. Quelques liens sur la décision américaine de fournir des armes à l’opposition syrienne.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/13/syria-chemical-weapons-us-confirm
http://edition.cnn.com/2013/06/13/politics/syria-us-chemical-weapons
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/13/syria-chemical-weapons-assad_n_3437640.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-22899289
Il y a un mois, cela enquiquinait visiblement Thomas Pierret d’apprendre que, selon l’Observatoire syrien des Droits de l’homme, presque la moitié des tués en Syrie seraient alaouites. Son argument était que, si cela était vrai, cela signifierait qu’il y a autant de morts dans les rangs de l’armée syrienne que parmi les rebelles, ce qu’il juge impossible.
Pourtant, auparavant et depuis ce chiffre, l’Observatoire a régulièrement annoncé que les pertes de l’armée étaient au moins aussi élevées que celles des rebelles.
In such circumstances, it is likely that the largest share of Alawite victims are members of the military and pro-regime militias, since Alawites constitute most of the regime’s fighting units. Here again, however, the figure mentioned in the report is doubtful. Indeed, since it is likely that more than half of the estimated 80.000 Sunni victims are civilians, and since Sunni casualties also include soldiers who died while fighting on the regime’s side, the SOHR estimates imply that regime forces lost as many or even more men than the opposition. This is hard to believe given the massive imbalance between the two sides in terms of firepower and protection: contrary to loyalist forces, insurgents have no helicopters, no planes, no ballistic missiles, very few tanks and heavy artillery; they rarely wear helmets and body armors, and they totally lack decent medical infrastructures. In such circumstances, the weakest belligerent generally suffers considerably higher casualties, even when it wins in the end - the Vietnam war is a case in point, since the Viet Cong and North Vietnamese army lost two to four times more combatants than the South Vietnamese and US forces.
In conclusion, the number of Alawite victims of the Syrian conflict was probably overestimated by the SOHR. If it is accurate, then it is likely that the total death toll is much, much higher than 120.000.
(Il y a un mois) Selon l’Observatoire syrien des Droits de l’Homme, entre la moitié et le tiers des tués en Syrie seraient alaouites.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/14/syria-death-toll-120000_n_3272610.html
At least 94,000 people have been killed during Syria’s two-year conflict, but the death toll is likely to be as high as 120,000, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said on Tuesday.
The group said that at least 41,000 of those confirmed killed were Alawites, the sect of President Bashar al-Assad.
Rami Abdulrahman, the head of the Observatory, said that the Alawite death figures were confirmed by eight different Alawite sources in coastal cities and in Homs.
À rapprocher de l’affirmation du même observatoire, cité le mois suivant, selon laquelle 43% des tués sont des soldats ou combattants du régime :
http://seenthis.net/messages/144656
Comme tout le monde, j’ai du mal à admettre ces chiffres, et je pensais qu’il s’agissait d’une citation erronée (ou inventée) de cet Observatoire, mais là on a deux citations différentes sur des informations différentes mais concordantes.
Ami lecteur, si tu as d’autres sources, je suis vraiment preneur, parce qu’en dehors de ces deux billets (eux-mêmes cités comme uniques sources par Wikipédia…), je n’ai rien trouvé d’autre.
Selon l’Observatoire, 6000 tués en mars 2013 : 25% de rebelles, 24% de soldats, 35% de civils.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/middle-east-live/2013/apr/02/6-000-killed-in-bloodiest-month-for-syria-crisis-live-updates
The Observatory gave figures of 1,486 rebels and army defectors and 1,464 Syrian army soldiers killed, along with 2,080 civilians, 298 of them children and 291 women. In addition, the group listed 387 unidentified civilians and 588 unidentified fighters.
U.N. says 93,000 killed in Syrian conflict, fears for Aleppo
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/13/us-syria-crisis-toll-idUSBRE95C08G20130613
One of the monitoring groups, the British-based, pro-opposition Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, said on Thursday it had now confirmed at least 98,000 deaths in the conflict, but that the total figure could exceed 130,000.
It said the confirmed toll included 25,040 Syrian soldiers and security personnel, and 17,107 pro-Assad militiamen.
C’est cohérent avec les chiffres qu’il a donné la semaine dernière à McClatchy. Contrairement à ce que je pensais, l’Observatoire n’a donc pas démenti ces chiffres, mais les a répétés à Reuters.
LA Times - U.N. says Syria death toll has likely surpassed 100,000
http://touch.latimes.com/#section/-1/article/p2p-76288195
Each side in the conflict has been implicated in mass killing, the U.N. noted, and the new study does not specify which side has been responsible for more deaths.
But Pillay noted that government forces have access to greater firepower — including heavy artillery, aerial bombardments and specialized ordinance such as cluster bombs, which drop numerous bomblets.
Syria: Inventing a Religious War by Toby Matthiesen | NYRblog | The New York Review of Books
http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2013/jun/12/syria-inventing-religious-war
This is not a fight purely or even primarily about Islam; it is a war about the future of the Middle East. Unfortunately, however, all the talk about sectarian war is fast becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. And by misunderstanding the complicated history of Syria’s alliances with Shia groups, we may contribute to the very sectarian tensions that are tearing the region apart.
Reports : Obama administration close to approving arms shipments to Syrian rebels
Haaretz
http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/reports-obama-administration-close-to-approving-arms-shipments-to-syrian-re
Des cargaisons d’armes américaines aux rebelles syriens ? Une zone d’exclusion aérienne ? Une « riposte » à l’intervention du Hezbollah et à la prise de Qoussair ?
C’est maintenant confirmé.
Washington « reconnait » que le regime syrien a utilisé du gaz sarin a dit ce matin RFI.
Pour la zone d’exclusion aerienne passera-t-on par le conseil de securité ?
So what ?
Des armes chimiques en Syrie, et alors ? - Great America
http://washington.blogs.liberation.fr/great_america/2013/06/des-armes-chimiques-en-syrie-et-alors.html
Pour annoncer ce jeudi que Bachar Al-Assad a franchi les « lignes rouges » tracées par Barack Obama, en utilisant à plusieurs reprises des armes chimiques, la présidence américaine a recouru à… un communiqué écrit de Ben Rhodes, conseiller adjoint à la sécurité nationale, chargé de la communication. Autant dire le degré « grave, mais pas au point de déplacer le président », sur l’échelle de dramatisation de la Maison Blanche.
(…)
Dans la foulée, un briefing téléphonique du même Ben Rhodes a confirmé que personne ne croit plus à Washington à une action décisive d’Obama en Syrie. Première question d’un collègue américain : "... Cela signifie-t-il qu’il n’y aura pas de réponse imminente à ce franchissement de la ligne rouge ? " Réponse de Ben Rhodes : " Tout d’abord, nous pensons que nous sommes déjà passés à l’action… " Deuxième question : " Vous ne pensez pas qu’il y a urgence ? " Réponse de Rhodes : "… La situation est urgente depuis déjà deux ans "…
Widespread Middle East Fears that Syrian Violence Will Spread | Pew Global Attitudes Project
http://www.pewglobal.org/2013/05/01/widespread-middle-east-fears-that-syrian-violence-will-spread
Populations in five of the six countries in the region that were surveyed oppose Americans or Europeans supplying the Syrian rebels with weapons. This opposition is particularly strong in Lebanon where 80% of the total public and 98% of Shia Lebanese do not want the West to get involved.
Voir aussi que personne, en dehors des deux tiers des sunnites libanais et des jordaniens, ne soutient l’envoi d’armes par les pays arabes aux rebelles syriens :
http://www.pewglobal.org/files/2013/04/SYRIA03.png
Noter même que 63% chez les sunnites libanais, ça n’est pas un score aussi tranché que ce qu’on obtient habituellement sur ce genre de questions très clivante au Liban (où les questions très clivantes et confessionnelles atteigne des taux de 90% dans un sens ou dans l’autre parmi les sunnites et les chiites).
De Aarsal à Baalbak ou Hermel, la Béqaa-nord aspirée dans la guerre
Rockets from Syria strike Baalbek | News , Politics | THE DAILY STAR
http://dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/Jun-06/219618-rockets-from-syria-strike-baalbek.ashx#axzz2VQ2Gr0vu
Nearly a dozen rockets fired from Syria hit areas in and around the city of Baalbek Wednesday night, injuring a number of people.
The National News Agency said 11 rockets, fired from the anti-Lebanon mountain range on the border with Syria, hit various locations, including the Shawarna neighborhood of the city, close to the home of MP Ghazi Zeaiter.
Agence-France Presse, citing a security source, said two projectiles landed near the city’s famous Roman ruins. Another three rockets hit the city’s center while others landed in areas near the city, AFP said. Al-Jadeed television said one child was wounded in the barrage, while other media spoke of up to five people who were injured.
The attack came hours after Syrian army troops and Hezbollah fighters gained control of the Syrian city of Qusair, near the border with Lebanon.
Dans un autre article :
http://dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/Jun-05/219518-syrian-chopper-drops-barrel-bombs-near-lebanons-arsal.ashx#ixzz
President Michel Sleiman Wednesday urged Damascus to respect Lebanese sovereignty after a Syrian helicopter attack on an area near the border town of Arsal.
Intervention du Hezbollah à Alep
La semaine dernière, plusieurs commentateurs expliquaient l’intervention du Hezbollah à Qusayr par la proximité de la ville du Liban et par le fait que ses intérêts stratégiques directs devaient y être défendus. On peut douter que ce soit le cas à Alep, ce qui signifierait - si cette intervention est confirmée - que l’intervention du Hezbollah dans le conflit syrien signifie une véritable régionalisation de la guerre et que cette organisation politique, longtemps perçue à travers le prisme de la libanisation, se dé-libanise.
4,000 Hezbollah fighters reach rebel-held Aleppo : FSA | News , Politics | THE DAILY STAR
http://dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/Jun-04/219388-4000-hezbollah-fighters-reach-rebel-held-aleppo-fsa.ashx#axzz2V
Over 4,000 fighters from Lebanon’s #Hezbollah have reached the northern Syrian city of Aleppo as part of military preparations to retake the rebel-held city, a spokesman for the Free Syrian Army told The Daily Star Tuesday.
“The number of Hezbollah members who have entered Aleppo has exceeded 4,000,” Louay Meqdad, the FSA spokesman, said.
Avis contradictoires de plusieurs observateurs militaires libanais sur la possibilité que le Hezbollah poursuive son intervention militaire en Syrie :
http://dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/Jun-06/219598-analysts-see-qusair-as-first-hezbollah-step-in-syria.ashx#axzz2
Sur l’engagement du Hezbollah en Syrie, le Dailystar est à manier avec prudence à mon avis...
oui, c’est pourquoi j’attends la confirmation. Du reste, le DS se contente de citer une source de l’ALS.
Who Gains From Syrian Bloodbath ?
http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/06/03/who-gains-from-syrian-bloodbath
There may be a more sinister reason why the US has started setting the bar so high for talks. Washington’s involvement is greater than appears because so much of it goes through Qatar, with the CIA determining who gets arms and money sent via Turkey. This would also explain why Britain and France are so keen to send the rebels weapons.
The explanation for the actions of the Western states may be that they do not want the war to end except as a victory for their allies. This certainly is the view of many in the Middle East, such as Mowaffak al-Rubaie, the former Iraqi National Security Adviser, who told me the civil war “is the best option for the West and Israel because it knocks out Syria as an opponent of their policies and keeps Iran busy. Hezbollah is preoccupied by Syria and not with Israel. Turkey’s idea of a new Ottoman empire is gone with the wind.”
La dépression syrienne (étendue au bloc BAO) s’accentue...
http://www.dedefensa.org/article-la_d_pression_syrienne_tendue_au_bloc_bao_s_accentue_05_06_2013.h
• Les USA constatent leur impotence. • Les Israéliens ne sont pas mieux lotis. • L’UE ne jure que par les Russes...
Syrian war widens Sunni-Shia schism as foreign jihadis join fight for shrines
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/04/syria-islamic-sunni-shia-shrines-volunteers
Syrian rebels say they respect all holy sites but damage to Sayyida Zeinab shrine has spurred 10,000 Shias to volunteer
J’ignore si cet article est sérieux ou non. Les témoignages sont intéressants, mais il y a plusieurs assertions (par exemple le chiffre de 10000 volontaires chiites, l’obligation de s’enrôler dans l’armée syrienne, les bases d’entraînement…) assez invérifiables, et dont j’ignore comment on peut obtenir des informations fiables à leur sujet.
Assad backers reportedly make up 43 percent of dead in Syria
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/06/03/192881/assad-backers-reportedly-make.html
According to the new statistics, which the Syrian Observatory passed to McClatchy by phone, at least 96,431 people have lost their lives in the more than two years of violence that’s wracked Syria.
Of those, Syrian soldiers and members of the government’s security forces account for 24,617, while members of pro-government militias make up 17,031. Taken together, those deaths account for 43.2 percent of the total recorded.
Civilian noncombatants are the next largest group of the dead – 35,479, or 36.8 percent of the total, according to the human rights group.
Deaths among anti-Assad fighters total 16,699, or 17.3 percent, according to the new numbers. Of those, 12,615 were Syrian civilians who’d picked up arms against the regime, 1,965 were rebel fighters who’d defected from the Syrian military and 2,119 were foreigners who were killed fighting on the Syrian rebels’ behalf.
Il n’y a pas de raison de croire ces nouveaux chiffres plus que les précédents : pourquoi sortir ces précisions maintenant ? Auparavant, l’observatoire ne prétendait pas donner de chiffres précis selon les camps.
Et franchement, ces chiffres me semblent assez nettement dénués de sens. Le seul intérêt, c’est que l’Observateur syrien de Londres se mettrait soudainement à communiquer des chiffres qui sont totalement contraires à, grosso modo, tout ce qui se dit sur la Syrie depuis deux ans.
Pour tout te dire, je m’attends à un démenti vigoureux dans les prochaines heures.
Israël a fait part de son scepticisme devant les informations rapportées par la presse selon lesquelles la Syrie aurait acquis des missiles S-300. Le discours du président Assad était beaucoup plus vague. Quoiqu’il en soit, il faudrait des mois avant que ces missiles deviennent opérationnels. La question est de savoir dans quelle mesure les Russes sont partie prenante de cette déclaration du président Assad.
Israel doubts Assad possesses S-300 system, but has good reason to worry
By Amos Harel
Haaretz
Israel treated the report skeptically, saying it had no information to confirm it, suspecting it was merely a crude attempt at psychological warfare. And in fact, this skepticism proved warranted: When the full text of Assad’s interview with Hezbollah’s Al-Manar television station was published, it turned out that all he said, when asked whether the S-300 had been delivered yet, was, “All of our agreements with Russia will be implemented, some have been implemented during the past period and, together with the Russians, we will continue to implement these contracts in the future.”
Un journal russe confirme ce scepticisme
Russia has not yet supplied S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems to Syria and it is not clear if they will be supplied this year, influential business daily Vedomosti reported on 31 May, quoting a source in the Russian defence industry.
The source said that the Russian authorities’ reluctance to make public promises not to supply S-300 missiles to Syria did not necessarily mean that the deliveries would take place. “Moscow’s official position - that it will fulfil its contracts signed with Syria - is caused by the recent experience with Iran and Libya when in exchange for the decision not to supply S-300 systems to Iran in 2010 and the support for the UN Security Council arms embargo on Libya after the start of the civil war there in 2011 Russia got nothing, while its reputation of a reliable supplier has been damaged,” the paper said, citing the source.
The source went on to say that S-300 missile systems would not help the Syrian government to prevent air strikes by NATO and Israel, should they take place.
The Vedomosti article, headlined “S-300s have not arrived yet”, also quoted arms experts Konstantin Makiyenko as saying that following the EU’s decision to lift the arms embargo on the Syrian opposition, Russia should not back out of its contracts for providing Damascus with the weapons that it really needs, namely firearms and light weapons, as well as with fuel, rather than with expensive S-300PMU-2 missile systems.
Source: Vedomosti, Moscow, in Russian 31 May 13
Si la Russie avait livré des S-300, un raid Israélien aurait probablement tenté de les détruire avant même leur déploiement.
cf. Haaretz
Le quotidien Haaretz indique, pour sa part, jeudi que le conseiller à la sécurité nationale Yaakov Amidror, un proche collaborateur de M. Nétanyahou, a affirmé la semaine dernière qu’Israël « ne stopperait pas la livraison [des S-300] mais empêcherait que ces systèmes deviennent opérationnels ». Selon le Haaretz, M. Amidror a fait ces déclarations lors d’un briefing devant les ambassadeurs de l’Union européenne.
cité par Le Monde hier http://seenthis.net/messages/143161
On oublie un peu vite la réaction des israéliens à l’annonce des russes de livrer les S-300. C’était le 13 mai dernier, déjà. Autant dire l’éternité. C’était tellement loin qu’on en vient déjà à conclure, parmi les journalistes bien au fait des choses, que les S-300 sont une riposte à la fin de l’embargo européen.
Et pourtant, le 13 mai, ces annonces de livraisons - qui doivent avoir lieu depuis longtemps déjà, bien avant la guerre - ne sont qu’une riposte aux bombardements israéliens sur la Syrie.
Pour se souvenir de ce qui se disait le 13 mai...
►http://www.dedefensa.org/article-s-300_pour_la_syrie_et_netanyahou_sotchi-canossa_13_05_2013.html
Et pour un résumé de ce qui se dit aujourd’hui un peu partout...
►http://www.dedefensa.org/article-r_de_l_insaisissables_s-300_qui_arrive_s_en_va_revient_31_05_2013
Ca fait bien longtemps que le gouvernement Syrien est fort marri de voir l’IAF faire du tourisme dans son espace aérien défendu par des pièces de musée (http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-Syria-SAM-Deployment.html) - les S-300 sont certainement depuis de nombreuses années sur la lettre de Bachar au père Noël .
Il serait intéressant de savoir de quelle version du système il est question : la dénomination S-300 désigne une famille plutôt étendue... En fonction du mix de missiles, radars, systèmes de commande etc. les performances attendues sont variées. Les Russes vendraient-ils les variantes les plus performantes à ce genre de client export risqué ?
Admettons que le gouvernement Syrien parvienne à obtenir une batterie de S-300 et à la déployer sans se la faire démolir par le Sayeret Shaldag... Qui va opérer ce matériel ? Certes des habitués d’un truc aussi compliqué à opérer qu’un S-125 (il faut voir la tronche des interfaces...) devraient avoir la capacité à être converti sur S-300, mais il faut du temps pour monter en compétence sur un nouveau matériel et l’intégrer efficacement dans un réseau de défense anti-aérienne existant. Tout ça laisse penser que les annonces concernant les S-300 sont de l’esbroufe médiatique, autant côté gouvernement que côté insurgé.
Un point complet de Reuters, aujourd’hui, citant des sources de l’industrie d’armement russe.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/31/us-syria-crisis-russia-missile-idUSBRE94U0BR20130531
“Regarding the deliveries of the S-300, they can begin no earlier than the autumn,” the arms industry source told Interfax on Friday, speaking on the condition of anonymity.
“Technically it’s possible, but much will depend on how the situation develops in the region and the position of Western countries.”
Without naming Israel specifically, Interfax paraphrased the source as saying: “Air attacks on Syria from the side of a neighboring government or the introduction of a so-called no-fly zone above Syria may serve as a pretext for speeding up the deliveries of the S-300.”
Quant au modèle
Russian daily Vedomosti has reported that Assad bought four units of the modernized S-300PMU-2 system for nearly $1 billion.
et pour la mise en œuvre et la formation
The Defence Ministry source said Syrian troops would need to be trained on the S-300 in Russia’s southern province of Astrakhan.
Former Russian Air Force Commander General Anatoly Kornukov told Interfax that such training would need a minimum of two to four weeks depending on the diligence of the recipients.
The S-300s themselves would be ready for use “within five minutes after the delivery”, he said.
« Ready for use within five minutes after the delivery » - on sent le discours commercial... C’est un système mobile, mais quand même.
On peut imaginer que la formation des utilisateurs en Russie a déjà eu lieu - comment n’y ai-je pas pensé ?
Plus discret que le déploiement d’un nouveau système : l’amélioration des systèmes existants... Une spécialité Russe dont voici un aperçu pertinent compte tenu du parc Syrien : http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-Legacy-SAM-Upgrades.html - on peut imaginer que les livraison continuent sans le moindre bruit médiatique.
Pour les amateurs de défense aérienne vintage Guerre Froide, je ne saurais trop recommander le SAM Simulator - https://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972 dont SimHQ a une bonne revue : http://www.simhq.com/_air14/air_512a.html
Patrick Cockburn · Is it the end of Sykes-Picot?: The Syrian War Spills Over · LRB 6 June 2013
http://www.lrb.co.uk/v35/n11/patrick-cockburn/is-it-the-end-of-sykes-picot
Assad isn’t going to win a total victory, but the opposition isn’t anywhere close to overthrowing him either. This is worth stressing because Western politicians and journalists so frequently take it for granted that the regime is entering its last days. A justification for the British and French argument that the EU embargo on arms deliveries to the rebels should be lifted – a plan first mooted in March but strongly opposed by other EU members – is that these extra weapons will finally tip the balance decisively against Assad. The evidence from Syria itself is that more weapons will simply mean more dead and wounded.
The protracted conflict that is now underway in Syria has more in common with the civil wars in Lebanon and Iraq than with the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi in Libya or the even swifter regime changes in Egypt and Tunisia at the start of the Arab Spring. The civil war in Lebanon lasted 15 years, from 1975 to 1990, and the sectarian divisions which caused it are as marked as ever. In Iraq, 2006 and 2007 are usually described as being the worst years of the slaughter – three thousand people murdered every month – but sectarian killings began immediately after the US invasion in 2003 and haven’t stopped since.
According to the UN some seven hundred Iraqis were killed in April: the highest monthly total since 2008. Syria is increasingly resembling its neighbours to the west and east: there will soon be a solid bloc of fragmented countries that stretches between the Mediterranean and Iran. In all three places the power of the central state is draining away as communities retreat into their own well-defended and near autonomous enclaves.
Hezbollah urges Hamas members and officials to ‘leave Lebanon immediately’
http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=59095
The powerful Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah called on Hamas members and officials who are still present in Lebanon to leave the country ’immediately and within hours.’ The decision comes as a response to the Palestinian Islamist movement’s role in the ongoing war in Syria against the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.
Media sources close to the Palestinian national liberation movement Fatah in Lebanon said a Hezbollah senior security official informed Hamas representative in Lebanon, Ali Baraka, that all of those related to Hamas on the Lebanese territory […] have become unwelcome.
Syrie, guerre insaisissable
http://www.dedefensa.org/article-syrie_guerre_insaisissable_30_05_2013.html
Citation et commentaire du 30 mai 2013 – contribution de dedefensa.org
Le nombre de Syriens qui quittent la Jordanie pour rentrer chez eux excède maintenant le nombre de ceux qui arrivent.
Number of returning Syrians outpaces arrivals | The Jordan Times
http://jordantimes.com/number-of-returning-syrians-outpaces-arrivals
According to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), some 200 Syrians crossed into Jordan early Monday, continuing a week-long slowdown in new arrivals that has seen as few as one refugee enter the country within a 24-hour period.
The total number of new arrivals over the past nine days stands at 583 — nearly one-third of the 1,650 refugees who returned to Syria during the same period and well below the previous daily average inflow of 2,500 persons per day.
Israel Advocates Quiet on U.S. Plans To Arm Syria Rebels – Forward.com
http://forward.com/articles/177240/israel-advocates-quiet-on-us-plans-to-arm-syria-re/?p=all
WASHINGTON — Israel and its supporters in the United States are so far not challenging proposals to send ammunition and even light artillery to some Syrian opposition groups, despite fears that those arms could end up in the hands of fighters committed to global jihad.
An official with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the largest pro-Israel lobby, said the group has not taken a position on proposed legislation calling for the arming of certain opposition groups, or on the broader issue of arming the Syrian opposition.
« Not Taken a position » ? Qui sont les auteurs des « proposals » ?
The bill, co-sponsored by Democratic Chairman Robert Menendez and ranking Republican Bob Corker...
Deux grands bénéficiaires des fonds de l’AIPAC. http://maplight.org/us-congress/interest/J5100/view/all
L’Armée syrienne libre avait annoncé qu’elle bombarderait des populations civiles chiites au Liban, elle l’a à nouveau revendiqué ce matin, et évidemment ce soir elle dément et accuse le Hezbollah d’un plan bizarre.
L’enchaînement est assez clair.
1. Le 22 mai, un communiqué de l’Armée syrienne libre prétend avoir découvert un plan du Hezbollah de commettre des attentats contre des régions chiites au Liban pour se poser en victime et faire accuser les rebelles syriens. Évidemment, c’est idiot : comment peut-on « découvrir » un tel plan ? Des dirigeants du Hezbollah l’ont annoncé à leurs troupes en Syrie et ça a fuité ? Les dirigeants du Hezbollah s’échangent leurs plans machiavéliques via Facebook ? Hassan Nasrallah l’a dit en « off » à des journalistes du Guardian qui ont ensuite violé leur NDA ? Quoi ? « Nous avons découvert que… » et ça suffit ?
Comme l’avait alors noté As‘ad Abukhalil, cette fumeuse découverte revenait en réalité pour l’Armée syrienne libre à annoncer maladroitement qu’elle prévoyait elle-même d’attaquer les civils chiites libanais et ensuite d’accuser le Hezbollah d’en être l’auteur « secret ».
2. Dimanche matin, deux roquettes Grad tombent sur Chiyah et blessent 4 personnes. (Comme à la parade, les dépêches des agences présentent le quartier comme un « fief » du « Hezbollah chiite », alors que Chiyah est un quartier anciennement chrétien avec une municipalité maronite, avec une très forte population chiite, mais plutôt fief du parti Amal depuis les années 90. Cette façon de justifier immédiatement le bombardement d’un quartier civil de Beyrouth est déjà scandaleux, mais le faire unanimement avec un argument faux me semble particulièrement suspect.)
Selon une source sécuritaire citée par Reuters, une roquette de 107mm, qui ne s’est pas déclenchée, visait l’aéroport de Beyrouth.
3. Le même jour, deux roquettes du même type tirées depuis la Syrie tombent sur la région du Hermel dans le Bekaa, sans faire de victimes.
4. Dans la semaine, un commandant rebelle d’Alep, « apparemment en route pour Qusayr », avait menacé explicitement de bombarder Dahiyeh dans une vidéo postée sur le Web :
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/26/rockets-hit-hezbollah-stronghold-beirut_n_3339486.html
Earlier this week, a rebel commander threatened to strike Beirut’s southern suburbs in retaliation for Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria. The threat was made in a video showing Col. Abdul-Jabbar al-Aqidi, commander of the Syrian rebels’ Military Council in Aleppo, while apparently en route to Qusair.
“We used to say before, `We are coming Bashar.’ Now we say, `We are coming Bashar and we are coming Hassan Nasrallah,’” the commander says in the video.
“We will strike at your strongholds in Dahiyeh,” he says, using the Lebanese name for Hezbollah’s power center in south Beirut. The video was still posted online on Youtube on Sunday.
4. Surtout, dimanche matin, un responsable de l’Armée syrienne libre justifie l’attaque et menace explicitement le Liban. Personne ne peut lire les propos d’Ammar al-Wawi autrement que comme une revendication et une menace purement terroriste (menacer les civils pour obtenir un gain politique).
Earlier on Sunday, FSA secretary Wawi called on President Michel Suleiman and the Lebanese government to “put an end to what Hizbullah is committing in Syria or else the fire raging in Syria will spread into Lebanon.”
“The Syrian people will not stand idly by regarding what Hizbullah is doing in Syria,” Wawi said in an interview with LBCI television.
“Should the Lebanese government fail to stop Hizbullah, there will be repercussions against Beirut, Tripoli and the Rafik Hariri International Airport,” Wawi said, claiming that the airport “has become a corridor for Iranian planes that are shipping weapons to Syria.”
He added: “Our honorable people in Lebanon from all sects will not stand idly by regarding what Hizbullah is doing in Syria, and therefore there will be repercussions, such as what happened today in the rocket attack on the southern suburbs.”
5. Évidemment (c’est une habitude après chaque attentat), après avoir explicitement menacé, puis indirectement revendiqué en menaçant à nouveau, l’Armée syrienne libre condamne les attentats « dans les termes les plus forts » :
http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/84497-fsa-strongly-condemns-dahiyeh-rocket-attack-disavows-its-secretary-s
“We condemn in the strongest terms the act of sabotage and terrorism that targeted Dahiyeh and reiterate our commitment to Lebanon’s security, sovereignty and stability,” Fahd al-Masri, head of FSA’s Central Media Department, said in an interview with MTV.
In another interview with Voice of Lebanon radio (100.5), Masri strongly denied any role for the FSA in the rocket attack, describing remarks voiced by FSA secretary Ammar al-Wawi as “irresponsible.”
6. Et revoici comme prévu la très fumeuse théorie du complot des attentats « false flag » commis par le Hezbollah :
He described the incident as “deeply worrisome,” noting that “it confirms what we had revealed about an Iranian plot to make bombings in Shiite areas to cover up for Hizbullah’s failure in (the Syrian town of) Qusayr.”
7. À cette heure, aucune mention de tout ceci dans aucun média occidental, malgré une rapide mention des menaces dans une dépêche Reuters :
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/26/us-lebanon-hezbollah-rockets-idUSBRE94P01M20130526
But another Syrian rebel, Ammar al-Wawi, told Lebanon’s LBC Television the attack was a warning to authorities in Beirut to restrain Hezbollah. “In coming days we will do more than this. This is a warning to Hezbollah and the Lebanese government to keep Hezbollah’s hands off Syria,” he said.
Quelques mentions commencent à arriver (essentiellement la reprise automatique de la dépêche Reuters).
Un article du Telegraph :
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10081822/Syrias-Sunni-rebels-launch-cross-border-attack-on-Hizbollah.html
Sibylle Rizk plutôt claire sur le sujet, malgré le titre idiot : Le fief du Hezbollah frappé par des roquettes dans la banlieue de Beyrouth
http://www.lefigaro.fr/international/2013/05/26/01003-20130526ARTFIG00196-le-fief-du-hezbollah-frappe-par-des-roquettes-dan
Toute la classe politique libanaise a condamné ces tirs visant à « déstabiliser » le pays. Un terme consacré pour désigner la transformation des tensions sectaires alimentées par le conflit syrien en guerre ouverte qui risquerait de replonger le Liban dans les sombres heures de son histoire. Même si les auteurs des tirs n’ont pas été identifiés, les regards se tournent vers les groupes salafistes libanais ou syriens qui ont menacé à plusieurs reprises de répliquer au Liban à l’implication du Hezbollah dans la bataille d’al-Qusayr, alors que Hassan Nasrallah a invité samedi soir ses adversaires à cantonner la lutte armée sur le territoire syrien. Pour certains analystes, l’attaque pourrait aussi avoir été commanditée par le régime de Bachar el-Assad, qui a intérêt à élargir le théâtre du conflit syrien à son voisin libanais tout comme il aurait tenté de le faire en Turquie avec l’attentat de Reyhanli, début mai.
http://www.trust.org/item/20130527130347-tec8n/?source=search
A Lebanese security source said another 107mm rocket, which did not go off, had been aimed at Beirut airport.
Merci Kassem, je modifie mon billet en conséquence, puisque ça va directement dans le sens de la démonstration.
En remontant aux événements de 2008, on pourra toujours expliquer que, quand même, quelque part, l’aéroport est, un tout petit peu, un « fief du Hezbollah ».
Des avions israéliens survolent à moyenne altitude le Liban-Sud
http://www.lorientlejour.com/article/816312/des-avions-israeliens-survolent-a-moyenne-altitude-le-liban-sud.html
Des avions israéliens ont intensivement survolé lundi à moyenne altitude plusieurs secteurs du Liban-Sud, jusqu’à la ville côtière de Tyr. Ces survols interviennent alors que l’armée israélienne a lancé une enquête sur des explosions intervenues dans la nuit de dimanche à lundi à la frontière libano-israélienne.
Mairead Maguire’s Report Back from Syria | War Is A Crime .org
http://warisacrime.org/content/mairead-maguires-report-back-syria
Report and Appeal to the International community to support a process of dialogue and reconciliation in Syria between its people and Syrian government and reject outside intervention and war.
BY Mairead Maguire, Nobel peace laureate. Spokesperson for Mussalaha International Peace delegation to Lebanon/Syria l-llth May, 2013,
After a 10 days visit to Lebanon and Syria, leading a 16 person delegation from 8 countries, invited by Mussalaha Reconciliation Movement, I have returned hopeful that peace is possible in Syria, if all outside interference is stopped and the Syrians are allowed to solve their own problems upholding their right to self-determination.
Admire le gloubi-boulga confessionaliste de France 24-avec-Reuters :
http://www.france24.com/en/20130522-syria%E2%80%99-national-coalition-calls-rebels-defend-qusair-0
Assad’s forces are intent on seizing Qusair in order to cement their hold on a belt of territory that connects the capital Damascus to Assad’s stronghold on the Mediterranean coast, home to his minority Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shi’ite Islam that has largely supported him.
Seizing Qusair would also allow Assad to sever links between rebel-held areas in the north and south of Syria.
With Shi’ite Hezbollah leading the fight in Qusair, its involvement could drag Syria’s civil war - which already pits mainly Sunni Muslim rebels, including radical Islamists and foreign fighters, against an Alawite-led army - into a more regional sectarian conflict.
Rebel leaders have warned of sectarian revenge attacks against Shi’ites and Alawites on either side of the Syrian-Lebanese border if rebels lose Qusair. Fighters speak of a tacit agreement among their units to launch village by village attacks should they be defeated in the town of 30,000.
Sabra warned that Hezbollah forces in Qusair could regionalise Sunni-Shi’ite tensions across the Middle East.
C’est donc la faute au Hezbollah si les chefs rebelles menacent de représailles sectaires… La beauté de cette compilation d’arguments confessionnels ineptes, c’est qu’il n’est fait nulle part mention des chrétiens de Qusayr. Est-ce parce qu’ils ont disparu, chassés l’année dernière par les rebelles (ceux qui ne seraient pas confessionnels si ce n’était l’intervention du Hezbollah) : Christians Flee from Radical Rebels in Syria
►http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/christians-flee-from-radical-rebels-in-syria-a-846180.html
“There were always Christians in Qusayr — there were around 10,000 before the war,” says Leila, the matriarch of the Khouri clan. Currently, 11 members of the clan are sharing two rooms. They include the grandmother, grandfather, three daughters, one husband and five children. “Despite the fact that many of our husbands had jobs in the civil service, we still got along well with the rebels during the first months of the insurgency.” The rebels left the Christians alone. The Christians, meanwhile, were keen to preserve their neutrality in the escalating power struggle. But the situation began deteriorating last summer, Leila says, murmuring a bit more before going silent.
“We’re too frightened to talk,” her daughter Rim explained, before mustering the courage to continue. “Last summer Salafists came to Qusayr, foreigners. They stirred the local rebels against us,” she says. Soon, an outright campaign against the Christians in Qusayr took shape. “They sermonized on Fridays in the mosques that it was a sacred duty to drive us away,” she says. “We were constantly accused of working for the regime. And Christians had to pay bribes to the jihadists repeatedly in order to avoid getting killed.”
Ou ce rapport du Vatican qui accusait les rebelles d’avoir chassé les chrétiens de Qusair : Syria opposition denies Vatican report of Christians ordered out
►http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/world_now/2012/06/syria-opposition-denies-vatican-report-of-christians-ordered-o
Opponents of the Syrian government disputed a Vatican report that Christians had fled the town of Qusair after an “ultimatum” from the rebel leader, denouncing it as government propaganda.
News of alleged Christian persecution in the town close to the Lebanese border had been reported Saturday by the official Vatican news agency, adding to ongoing worries that the uprising against President Bashar Assad could devolve into sectarian strife between Islamists and religious minorities.
The Vatican agency said it wasn’t clear why Christians had been ordered out of the town. “According to some, it serves to avoid more suffering to the faithful; other sources reveal ’a continuity focused on discrimination and repression.’ Still others argue that Christians have openly expressed their loyalty to the state and for this reason the opposition army drives them away,” the news agency reported.