industryterm:oil prices

Iran’s Oil Exports Implode As Sanctions Sting | OilPrice.com
▻https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Irans-Oil-Exports-Implode-As-Sanctions-Sting.html

https://d32r1sh890xpii.cloudfront.net/article/718x300/bdc8dd9fba49ac55ceb1a624aeda971a.jpg

A [...] report from the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) [...] concludes that “the international community, and indeed some of the waiver countries, will at best partially comply with renewed U.S. sanctions.” Not only that, but the report argues that the U.S. may have to back down a bit in the face of rising oil prices. “Our modeling also suggests that there remains a high risk of U.S. capitulation in the face of international pressure to extend or reissue waivers, or to replace them with some equivalent mechanism.” Much depends on whether or not Saudi Arabia rides to the rescue and adds supply in order to offset outages in Iran.

#Iran #etats-unis #pétrole

Tom Stevenson reviews ‘AngloArabia’ by David Wearing · LRB 9 May 2019
▻https://www.lrb.co.uk/v41/n09/tom-stevenson/what-are-we-there-for

It is a cliché that the United States and Britain are obsessed with Middle East oil, but the reason for the obsession is often misdiagnosed. Anglo-American interest in the enormous hydrocarbon reserves of the Persian Gulf does not derive from a need to fuel Western consumption . [...] Anglo-American involvement in the Middle East has always been principally about the strategic advantage gained from controlling Persian Gulf hydrocarbons, not Western oil needs. [...]

Other parts of the world – the US, Russia, Canada – have large deposits of crude oil, and current estimates suggest Venezuela has more proven reserves than Saudi Arabia. But Gulf oil lies close to the surface, where it is easy to get at by drilling; it is cheap to extract, and is unusually ‘light’ and ‘sweet’ (industry terms for high purity and richness). It is also located near the middle of the Eurasian landmass, yet outside the territory of any global power. Western Middle East policy, as explained by Jimmy Carter’s national security adviser, Zbigniew Brzezinski, was to control the Gulf and stop any Soviet influence over ‘that vital energy resource upon which the economic and political stability both of Western Europe and of Japan depend’, or else the ‘geopolitical balance of power would be tipped’. In a piece for the Atlantic a few months after 9/11, Benjamin Schwarz and Christopher Layne explained that Washington ‘assumes responsibility for stabilising the region’ because China, Japan and Europe will be dependent on its resources for the foreseeable future: ‘America wants to discourage those powers from developing the means to protect that resource for themselves.’ Much of US power is built on the back of the most profitable protection #racket in modern history.

[...]

It is difficult to overstate the role of the Gulf in the way the world is currently run. In recent years, under both Obama and Trump, there has been talk of plans for a US withdrawal from the Middle East and a ‘#pivot’ to Asia. If there are indeed such plans, it would suggest that recent US administrations are ignorant of the way the system over which they preside works.

The Arab Gulf states have proved well-suited to their status as US client states, in part because their populations are small and their subjugated working class comes from Egypt and South Asia. [...] There are occasional disagreements between Gulf rulers and their Western counterparts over oil prices, but they never become serious. [...] The extreme conservatism of the Gulf monarchies, in which there is in principle no consultation with the citizenry, means that the use of oil sales to prop up Western economies – rather than to finance, say, domestic development – is met with little objection. Wearing describes the modern relationship between Western governments and the Gulf monarchs as ‘asymmetric interdependence’, which makes clear that both get plenty from the bargain. Since the West installed the monarchs, and its behaviour is essentially extractive, I see no reason to avoid describing the continued Anglo-American domination of the Gulf as #colonial.

Saudi Arabia and the other five members of the Gulf Co-operation Council are collectively the world’s largest buyer of military equipment by a big margin. [...]. The deals are highly profitable for Western arms companies (Middle East governments account for around half of all British arms sales), but the charge that Western governments are in thrall to the arms companies is based on a misconception. Arms sales are useful principally as a way of bonding the Gulf monarchies to the Anglo-American military. Proprietary systems – from fighter jets to tanks and surveillance equipment – ensure lasting dependence, because training, maintenance and spare parts can be supplied only by the source country. Western governments are at least as keen on these deals as the arms industry, and much keener than the Gulf states themselves. While speaking publicly of the importance of fiscal responsibility, the US, Britain and France have competed with each other to bribe Gulf officials into signing unnecessary arms deals.

Control of the Gulf also yields less obvious benefits. [...] in 1974, the US Treasury secretary, William Simon, secretly travelled to Saudi Arabia to secure an agreement that remains to this day the foundation of the dollar’s global dominance. As David Spiro has documented in The Hidden Hand of American Hegemony (1999), the US made its guarantees of Saudi and Arab Gulf security conditional on the use of oil sales to shore up the #dollar. Under Simon’s deal, Saudi Arabia agreed to buy massive tranches of US Treasury bonds in secret off-market transactions. In addition, the US compelled Saudi Arabia and the other Opec countries to set oil prices in dollars, and for many years Gulf oil shipments could be paid for only in dollars. A de facto oil standard replaced gold, assuring the dollar’s value and pre-eminence.

For the people of the region, the effects of a century of AngloArabia have been less satisfactory. Since the start of the war in Yemen in 2015 some 75,000 people have been killed, not counting those who have died of disease or starvation. In that time Britain has supplied arms worth nearly £5 billion to the Saudi coalition fighting the Yemeni Houthis. The British army has supplied and maintained aircraft throughout the campaign; British and American military personnel are stationed in the command rooms in Riyadh; British special forces have trained Saudi soldiers fighting inside Yemen; and Saudi pilots continue to be trained at RAF Valley on Anglesey. The US is even more deeply involved: the US air force has provided mid-air refuelling for Saudi and Emirati aircraft – at no cost, it emerged in November. Britain and the US have also funnelled weapons via the UAE to militias in Yemen. If the Western powers wished, they could stop the conflict overnight by ending their involvement. Instead the British government has committed to the Saudi position. As foreign secretary, Philip Hammond pledged that Britain would continue to ‘support the Saudis in every practical way short of engaging in combat’. This is not only complicity but direct participation in a war that is as much the West’s as it is Saudi Arabia’s.

The Gulf monarchies are family dictatorships kept in power by external design, and it shows. [...] The main threat to Western interests is internal: a rising reminiscent of Iran’s in 1979. To forestall such an event, Britain equips and trains the Saudi police force, has military advisers permanently attached to the internal Saudi security forces, and operates a strategic communications programme for the Saudi National Guard (called Sangcom). [...]

As Wearing argues, ‘Britain could choose to swap its support for Washington’s global hegemony for a more neutral and peaceful position.’ It would be more difficult for the US to extricate itself. Contrary to much of the commentary in Washington, the strategic importance of the Middle East is increasing, not decreasing. The US may now be exporting hydrocarbons again, thanks to state-subsidised shale, but this has no effect on the leverage it gains from control of the Gulf. And impending climate catastrophe shows no sign of weaning any nation from fossil fuels , least of all the developing East Asian states. US planners seem confused about their own intentions in the Middle East. In 2017, the National Intelligence Council described the sense of neglect felt by the Gulf monarchies when they heard talk of the phantasmagorical Asia pivot. The report’s authors were profoundly negative about the region’s future, predicting ‘large-scale violence, civil wars, authority vacuums and humanitarian crises persisting for many years’. The causes, in the authors’ view, were ‘entrenched elites’ and ‘low oil prices’. They didn’t mention that maintenance of both these things is US policy.

#etats-unis #arabie_saoudite #pétrole #moyen_orient #contrôle

Record High #Remittances Sent Globally in #2018

Remittances to low- and middle-income countries reached a record high in 2018, according to the World Bank’s latest Migration and Development Brief.

The Bank estimates that officially recorded annual remittance flows to low- and middle-income countries reached $529 billion in 2018, an increase of 9.6 percent over the previous record high of $483 billion in 2017. Global remittances, which include flows to high-income countries, reached $689 billion in 2018, up from $633 billion in 2017.

Regionally, growth in remittance inflows ranged from almost 7 percent in East Asia and the Pacific to 12 percent in South Asia. The overall increase was driven by a stronger economy and employment situation in the United States and a rebound in outward flows from some Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and the Russian Federation. Excluding China, remittances to low- and middle-income countries ($462 billion) were significantly larger than foreign direct investment flows in 2018 ($344 billion).

Among countries, the top remittance recipients were India with $79 billion, followed by China ($67 billion), Mexico ($36 billion), the Philippines ($34 billion), and Egypt ($29 billion).

In 2019, remittance flows to low- and middle-income countries are expected to reach $550 billion, to become their largest source of external financing.

The global average cost of sending $200 remained high, at around 7 percent in the first quarter of 2019, according to the World Bank’s Remittance Prices Worldwide database. Reducing remittance costs to 3 percent by 2030 is a global target under Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 10.7. Remittance costs across many African corridors and small islands in the Pacific remain above 10 percent.

Banks were the most expensive remittance channels, charging an average fee of 11 percent in the first quarter of 2019. Post offices were the next most expensive, at over 7 percent. Remittance fees tend to include a premium where national post offices have an exclusive partnership with a money transfer operator. This premium was on average 1.5 percent worldwide and as high as 4 percent in some countries in the last quarter of 2018.

On ways to lower remittance costs, Dilip Ratha, lead author of the Brief and head of KNOMAD, said, “Remittances are on track to become the largest source of external financing in developing countries. The high costs of money transfers reduce the benefits of migration. Renegotiating exclusive partnerships and letting new players operate through national post offices, banks, and telecommunications companies will increase competition and lower remittance prices.”

The Brief notes that banks’ ongoing de-risking practices, which have involved the closure of the bank accounts of some remittance service providers, are driving up remittance costs.

The Brief also reports progress toward the SDG target of reducing the recruitment costs paid by migrant workers, which tend to be high, especially for lower-skilled migrants.

“Millions of low-skilled migrant workers are vulnerable to recruitment malpractices, including exorbitant recruitment costs. We need to boost efforts to create jobs in developing countries and to monitor and reduce recruitment costs paid by these workers,” said Michal Rutkowski, Senior Director of the Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice at the World Bank. The World Bank and the International Labour Organization are collaborating to develop indicators for worker-paid recruitment costs, to support the SDG of promoting safe, orderly, and regular migration.

Regional Remittance Trends

Remittances to the East Asia and Pacific region grew almost 7 percent to $143 billion in 2018, faster than the 5 percent growth in 2017. Remittances to the Philippines rose to $34 billion, but growth in remittances was slower due to a drop in private transfers from the GCC countries. Flows to Indonesia increased by 25 percent in 2018, after a muted performance in 2017.

After posting 22 percent growth in 2017, remittances to Europe and Central Asia grew an estimated 11 percent to $59 billion in 2018. Continued growth in economic activity increased outbound remittances from Poland, Russia, Spain, and the United States, major sources of remittances to the region. Smaller remittance-dependent countries in the region, such as the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, benefited from the sustained rebound of economic activity in Russia. Ukraine, the region’s largest remittance recipient, received a new record of more than $14 billion in 2018, up about 19 percent over 2017. This surge in Ukraine also reflects a revised methodology for estimating incoming remittances, as well as growth in neighboring countries’ demand for migrant workers.

Remittances flows into Latin America and the Caribbean grew 10 percent to $88 billion in 2018, supported by the strong U.S. economy. Mexico continued to receive the most remittances in the region, posting about $36 billion in 2018, up 11 percent over the previous year. Colombia and Ecuador, which have migrants in Spain, posted 16 percent and 8 percent growth, respectively. Three other countries in the region posted double-digit growth: Guatemala (13 percent) as well as Dominican Republic and Honduras (both 10 percent), reflecting robust outbound remittances from the United States.

Remittances to the Middle East and North Africa grew 9 percent to $62 billion in 2018. The growth was driven by Egypt’s rapid remittance growth of around 17 percent. Beyond 2018, the growth of remittances to the region is expected to continue, albeit at a slower pace of around 3 percent in 2019 due to moderating growth in the Euro Area.

Remittances to South Asia grew 12 percent to $131 billion in 2018, outpacing the 6 percent growth in 2017. The upsurge was driven by stronger economic conditions in the United States and a pick-up in oil prices, which had a positive impact on outward remittances from some GCC countries. Remittances grew by more than 14 percent in India, where a flooding disaster in Kerala likely boosted the financial help that migrants sent to families. In Pakistan, remittance growth was moderate (7 percent), due to significant declines in inflows from Saudi Arabia, its largest remittance source. In Bangladesh, remittances showed a brisk uptick in 2018 (15 percent).

Remittances to Sub-Saharan Africa grew almost 10 percent to $46 billion in 2018, supported by strong economic conditions in high-income economies. Looking at remittances as a share of GDP, Comoros has the largest share, followed by the Gambia , Lesotho, Cabo Verde, Liberia, Zimbabwe, Senegal, Togo, Ghana, and Nigeria.

The Migration and Development Brief and the latest migration and remittances data are available at www.knomad.org. Interact with migration experts at ▻http://blogs.worldbank.org/peoplemove

▻http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2019/04/08/record-high-remittances-sent-globally-in-2018?cid=ECR_TT_worldbank_EN_EXT
#remittances #statistiques #chiffres #migrations #diaspora

#Rapport ici :

https://i.imgur.com/dIgQYKO.png https://i.imgur.com/YHr41Gv.png

ping @reka

Trade War ‘Totally Stopped’ U.S. Crude Oil Shipments To China | OilPrice.com
▻https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Trade-War-Totally-Stopped-US-Crude-Oil-Shipments-To-China.html

https://d32r1sh890xpii.cloudfront.net/news/718x300/1ddae2b3373fb594952223b70e791d08.jpg

Meanwhile, China is looking to replace U.S. crude oil because of the trade war, and is buying crude from West Africa at the highest level in seven years, according to Bloomberg data. Chinese refiners have purchased 1.71 million bpd of crude oil from West Africa for October loadings, the highest since at least August 2011 when Bloomberg started to compile the data.

Oil prices steady after stock markets plunge
▻https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/25/oil-markets-market-sell-off-looming-us-sanctions-on-iran-in-focus.html

Bowing to pressure from Washington, Chinese oil majors Sinopec and China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) have yet to buy any oil from Iran for November because of concerns that sanctions violations could hurt their operations.

#pétrole #énergie #Chine #Etats-Unis

▻https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2018/07/25/signs-point-to-trouble-ahead-for-saudi-economy/#3591ae46635d

Signs Point To Trouble Ahead For Saudi Economy

The lasting impact of that crackdown (or purge, depending on how you see it) has been a stifling of the Saudi private sector, with many wealthy Saudis unwilling to invest domestically despite Prince Mohammad bin Salman’s centralized push for business growth . The government, under the direction of the prince, is trying to compel economic growth and diversification, primarily through the Vision2030 program. This has left the Saudi government as the major source of investment in the Saudi economy, which, ultimately, defeats the objectives of diversification and privatization. Government investment can make Saudi economic numbers look good on paper, but it is a risky strategy. When oil prices fall so does government spending (meaning government spending does not lead to diversification).

This also sends a troubling signal to foreign investors and foreign businesses considering opportunities in the kingdom. If Saudis are trying to move their money out of the country—and if the government is concerned enough to prevent them from doing so—foreign investors or companies looking to open businesses in Saudi Arabia will hesitate. Without assurances that the rule of law is respected in Saudi Arabia, foreign businesses will consider Saudi Arabia too risky to enter. Capital flight from Saudi citizens is a key indicator.

#arabie_saoudite suites de la #nuit_torride

New U.S.-Russia-Saudi oil alliance could also have implications for Israel and Iran

A reported deal between Putin and the Saudi crown prince means they will have members of OPEC over a barrel when they meet in Vienna this weekend – but Jerusalem will be an interested spectator as well

Anshel PfefferSendSend me email alerts
Jun 20, 2018

▻https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/.premium-u-s-russia-saudi-oil-alliance-could-affect-israel-iran-too-1.61968

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman didn’t look like someone whose national team was losing 5-0 to Russia last Thursday. The broad smiles as he sat beside Russian President Vladimir Putin in the VIP box at Moscow’s Luzhniki Stadium indicated the opening match of the World Cup was just an excuse for their meeting.
According to briefings by Russian officials after the crown prince had left Moscow, he and Putin had agreed on a joint policy worth more than any sports trophy.
The two governments – also two of the world’s major energy producers – had reportedly agreed to “institutionalize” the relationship between Russia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Does this include all the OPEC members who are meeting in Vienna on Friday? Almost certainly not.
OPEC exists in theory to ensure its members’ market share of the global energy market and to try and boost oil prices, ensuring their major source of income remains lucrative. But it depends on consensus and coordination between the members. And geopolitics can intrude – in this case, the deepening enmity between two of the major oil producers: the Saudis and Iran.
In 2016, following a prolonged dip in oil prices (which saw the price of a barrel of crude drop to below $30), OPEC’s 14 members – along with OPEC Plus, a second group of associated nations, including Russia – agreed to cut back production. Along with the rise in global financial activity, this has gradually pushed oil prices back to over $70 a barrel.
Now, though, some nations – led by the Saudis and Russia – are calling for an increase in production. They are losing market share to U.S. shale oil producers and argue that, since demand is currently high, putting more oil on the market will not dramatically affect prices. They calculate that any dip in prices will be offset by the increase in production.
But not all OPEC members are capable of boosting production.
Iran, about to come under stiff new sanctions from the Trump administration, is already losing orders worth hundreds of thousands of barrels. In Venezuela, production is already plummeting due to political turmoil and the economic meltdown under the Maduro government, which also faces U.S. sanctions. For both countries, lower oil prices will only compound their financial woes.

Egypt : Government hikes fuel prices by up to 66.7% | MadaMasr
▻https://www.madamasr.com/en/2018/06/16/news/economy/government-hikes-fuel-prices-by-up-to-66-7

The government raised fuel prices at 9 am on Saturday morning by as much as 66.67 percent, according to Saturday’s edition of the Official Gazette. The move comes as part of the 2016 structural readjustment program agreed on with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and amid rising international oil prices.

Among the hikes introduced on Saturday morning, the second largest increases were levied on diesel and 80 octane fuel prices, which are used in microbuses and trucks. This will have a pronounced impact on low-income groups and overall inflation levels.

The greatest increase comes with the rise in prices of LPG cylinders used in households and some commercial outlets as an alternative to gas. The price of 95 octane and 92 octane fuel — used by private car owners — saw the lowest increase.

Norwegian Parliament Approves $6 Billion Plan for Giant ’Johan Castberg’ Arctic Oil Field – gCaptain
▻http://gcaptain.com/norwegian-parliament-approves-6-billion-plan-for-giant-johan-castberg-arct

The Norwegian Parliament has approved Equinor’s development and operation plan for the giant Johan Castberg field located in the Barents Sea within the Arctic Circle.

The plan now heads to Norway’s Ministry of Petroleum and Energy for formal approval.

The #Johan_Castberg field, with estimated recoverable resources of 450-650 million boe (barrels of oil equivalent), is currently the largest subsea field under development globally.

Johan Castberg was first discovered by then-Statoil in 2011, but its development was pushed back due to the crash in oil prices beginning in 2014.

Statoil, which recently changed its name to Equinor, finally greenlit the project in 2017 after cutting project costs by more than half compared to 2014-2015 levels, reducing the project’s break-even price to less than $35 per barrel of oil.

cf. posts
en 2013 ▻https://seenthis.net/messages/144878
et 2014 ▻https://seenthis.net/messages/303604
by @reka sur le report du développement du champ

Deepwater discoveries signal life in offshore sector - Houston Chronicle
▻http://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/article/Deepwater-discoveries-signal-life-in-offshore-12541700.php

Some of the world’s biggest oil companies announced this week that they’ve made major deepwater discoveries in the Gulf of Mexico and North Sea, signaling that the moribund offshore energy sector is coming back to life as rising oil prices and lower development costs hold the promise of new profits.

Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell, BP and the French company Total revealed their discoveries within a 24-hour period Tuesday and Wednesday, shifting attention from the Permian Basin in West Texas, which has become the center of the industry’s rebound from the last oil bust. This new activity offshore could provide a much needed boost to the explorers, drillers and equipment makers that employ tens of thousands of people in the Houston area.
[…]
Shell, the Anglo-Dutch oil major, said Wednesday that it struck a potentially major oil payload while drilling to 23,000 feet in the Gulf of Mexico about 200 miles south of Houston. Chevron, the second largest U.S. oil company, owns a 40 percent stake in the well, dubbed the “Whale.”

The discovery is near an area where Shell already has developed wells, about 10 miles from its massive Perdido platform, which is moored at 8,000 feet underwater.

#Diamond_Pipeline disrupts oil flows around U.S.
▻https://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL4N1PL4SZ

The Diamond Pipeline has
scrambled crude oil flows around the U.S. Gulf Coast and Midwest
since it opened in December, cutting supply at the Cushing hub
and hammering Louisiana oil prices.
The line from Cushing, Oklahoma to Memphis, Tennessee, a
joint venture between Plains All American Pipeline LP
and Valero Energy Corp , has dented volumes on the
Capline system - the nation’s largest crude pipeline that runs
from the Gulf to key refineries in the Midwest.
Prices for Gulf Coast crude grades traded in the Louisiana
region have been hit hard.
[…]
The 440-mile long Diamond line feeds Valero’s Memphis,
Tennessee refinery, which has a capacity of about 190,000 bpd.
Valero has historically moved large volumes from North Dakota’s
Bakken shale region by rail to Louisiana and then shipped it up
Capline, a long and expensive route, traders said.
In December, Marathon Pipe Line LLC said it would reverse
Capline, pending agreement among owners, to initially send about
300,000 bpd of crude south beginning in the second half of 2022.
However, if supply is getting stuck in Louisiana as a result of
Diamond, the additional crude from Capline could worsen that
effect.

▻http://www.diamondpipelinellc.com/project-overview/maps

http://www.diamondpipelinellc.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Planned_DiamondPipeline_Route_103114-1.jpg

House of Saud’s power struggle could turn bloody | Middle East Eye
▻http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/house-sauds-power-struggle-may-turn-bloody-737583439

Par Madawi Al-Rasheed

What we are witnessing today in Saudi Arabia among royalty is the beginning of the process by which the vertical succession may need bloodshed to be established as fait accompli, thus slimming down a cult that has gone too big at times of dwindling oil wealth.

If in the past money was thrown at disgruntled princes, today bin Salman wants to strip them of their cash to replenish his own coffers that are under the pressure of both population growth and decreasing oil prices.

He’s got to find money somewhere if he wants to mitigate against an imminent rebellion by both disgruntled princes and impoverished Saudis, who will have to resort to traditional methods of cooling their beds by sleeping under wet sheets in the absence of affordable electricity to power their modern air-conditioning units.

Should Mohammed bin Salman continue to deploy the sword against his rivals and more importantly the disenfranchised Saudis, he is unlikely to secure his place as the visionary saviour, the new imam of moderate Islam, the economic engine of affluence in the post-oil age, and the youngest head of the Al-Saud cult.

The Real Story of Automation Beginning with One Simple Chart
▻https://medium.com/basic-income/the-real-story-of-automation-beginning-with-one-simple-chart-8b95f9bad71b

https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1600/1*TKeXB4jzbsJKq6plJVXQCQ.jpeg

What should be immediately apparent is that as the number of oil rigs declined due to falling oil prices, so did the number of workers the oil industry employed. But when the number of oil rigs began to rebound, the number of workers employed didn’t. That observation itself should be extremely interesting to anyone debating whether technological unemployment exists or not, but there’s even more to glean from this chart.

First, have you even heard of automated oil rigs, or are they new to you? They’re called “Iron Roughnecks” and they automate the extremely repetitive task of connecting drill pipe segments to each other as they’re shoved deep into the Earth.

#automatisation #emploi

North Sea Oil Squeezed as U.S. Ships Crude Like Never Before - Bloomberg
▻https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-10/north-sea-oil-sandwiched-as-u-s-ships-crude-like-never-before

https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iy3IPzRErZoY/v2/1200x675.png

- European market faces influx of crude from across the Atlantic
– At the same time, U.S. crude is now competing for Asian buyers

As crude oil gushes out of the U.S. like never before, it looks increasingly like North Sea oil will suffer collateral damage.

America exported a record high 1.98 million barrels a day of crude in the week ended Sept. 29, equal to the crude that normally gets shipped every day in the North Sea. Much of the U.S. outflow is going to Asia, which has become increasingly important in recent years in determining North Sea oil prices, effectively sandwiching Brent crude between bearish forces.

“It’s direct competition to North Sea production on many different fronts,” said Olivier Jakob, managing director at Petromatrix GmbH in Zug, Switzerland. Where U.S. exports go to Asia, “it will be more difficult for the North Sea to push some of its barrels outside of the region. It creates competition. It’s going to be a bearish factor for the North Sea market.”

Saudi Arabia’s dependent fees leave Egyptian expats in dire straits

▻http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/07/saudi-arabia-fees-egypt-expats-economic-trouble.html

Egyptian workers along with other expatriates in Saudi Arabia expressed their concerns over the Saudi government’s recent decision to impose new fees on the dependents of foreign workers, in a move to boost state revenues that have been hit by the decline in oil prices. Feeling the pinch of the increased fees, many Egyptians are planning to send their families back home to avoid this extra financial burden that will swallow their salaries.

SUMMARY⎙ PRINT
Dependents of expat workers in Saudi Arabia will be charged a dependent fee starting in 2017, which is a further strain on the salaries of foreign workers and will likely result in large numbers of families going back home.
AUTHOR
Amira Sayed Ahmed
POSTED
July 16, 2017
The newly introduced levy, which went into effect July 1, came as part of Saudi Arabia’s fiscal balance program adopted in December. The program aims to strike a balance between revenues and expenditure by 2020.

The monthly fee will begin at 100 Saudi riyals ($26.65) per dependent in 2017. This amount is expected to increase gradually every year until 2020. It will double to 200 riyals in 2018. Then, it will increase up to 300 riyals and 400 riyals in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The passport department, meanwhile, announced that the fees are mandatory and need to be paid before residency permits can be renewed, and exit/re-entry visas issued.

According to official statements, the expat dependent fees will help the government yield total revenues of 1 billion Saudi riyals by the end of this year and 65 billion riyals by 2020.

Saudi Reforms and the Future of Mohammed bin Salman | New Eastern Outlook A russian point of view
►http://journal-neo.org/2017/04/29/saudi-reforms-and-the-future-of-mohammed-bin-salman

On April 22, as was already customary in the era of King Salman and his son, Prince Mohammed, a series of royal decrees were unexpectedly adopted and immediately published. The essence of these decrees is twofold: on the one hand, the level of salaries and bonuses for state employees will be restored, after having been canceled in September 2016, and they, respectively, will be increased by twenty percent. In addition, two salaries are paid at once to servicemen fighting in Yemen. On the other hand, a number of resignations and new appointments have been announced, which can also be divided into two parts – the appointment of new ministers and new governors.Rather significant figures have been dismissed from the group of appointees of Mohammed bin Salman himself, such as the Minister of Information and Culture, and technocrats, mostly not from the royal family, are listed in their place; whereas the posts of provincial governors and their deputies everywhere are taken up primarily by young princes of royal blood. The most notable appointment is the new ambassador to the United States – another son of King Khaled bin Salman. Yet another son, Abdelaziz bin Salman, changed from the Deputy Minister of Oil and Mineral Resources to State Minister for Energy (the post is more honorary than influential).

Behind all these decisions is the iron logic of power. If we speak about raising salaries and paying benefits, then the emergence of this decree is dictated by the need to calm the maturing opposition in the Saudi society and the frustration that is flaring up in social media. They accuse the young prince, who is responsible for the economic, defense and foreign policy of the country, of living wastefully against the backdrop of the misfortunes of the Saudi population (although those are quite relative compared with other countries), which has begun to live significantly worse, given the fall in oil prices and measures to reduce the budget deficit, which amounted to a record $75 billion in 2016. Muhammad bin Salman is also accused of inept, ill-conceived reforms that do not produce proper results, and of delaying the costly military campaign in Yemen, which has not yet yielded any results. In this context, the increase in salaries and the payment of bonuses were absolutely necessary to strengthen the young prince’s shaky positions. The royal finances now provide some opportunities for this because of the stabilization of oil prices at $52-55 per barrel, although they are not enough to solve the problems of a budget deficit – for this the price for oil would need to soar to $78 per barrel, which so far looks unrealistic.

►http://journal-neo.org/2017/04/29/saudi-reforms-and-the-future-of-mohammed-bin-salman

#Russie #Arabie

Russian Defense Ministry’s photos of reindeer in the Arctic hold a coded message to the world — Quartz
▻https://qz.com/898248/the-russian-defense-ministrys-photos-of-reindeer-in-the-arctic-hold-a-coded-mess
▻https://qzprod.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/russia_army_reindeer-e1485799877369.jpg?quality=80&strip=all
▻https://qzprod.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/russia_army_reindeer_03.jpg?quality=80&strip=all&w=940

As Reuters notes, Russia is engaging in its largest military expansion since the fall of the Soviet Union, focusing heavily on Arctic regions. Up for grabs are massive deposits of oil and gas. While oil prices worldwide remain low, Russia is laying the groundwork for regional dominance, including building up a fleet of nuclear-powered ice breaker ships.
Russia’s buildup hasn’t gone unnoticed: This week, US troops are conducting exercises with Poland. Two weeks ago, US Marines arrived in Norway.

#rennes #arctique #russie #pétrole #extractivisme

En Asie, l’exploration pétrolière et la construction navale premières bénéficiaires de l’accord de l’OPEP.
Dans la vidéo en tête d’article, la commentatrice de Bloomberg présente l’accord comme une grande victoire de l’Arabie Séoudite.
À comparer avec ▻https://seenthis.net/messages/547448 …

New Era for Oil Reverberates Through Asia’s Shipyards to Runways - Bloomberg
▻https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-01/new-era-for-oil-reverberates-through-asia-s-shipyards-to-runways

While the first OPEC production cuts since 2008 were inked as Asia slept, the winners and losers from the surprise deal are already becoming clear in the world’s biggest oil-consuming region.

U.S. crude is hugging $50 a barrel following Wednesday’s 9.3 percent surge, the biggest since February, and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is projecting further gains of more than 10 percent by the end of the first half as the current oil surplus withers into a deficit. A revival in prices could prove challenging to countries like India and China, which import most of the crude they consume. Yet the region is also home to some of the largest players when it comes to shipping and oil-market infrastructure.

“It’s extremely hopeful and optimistic for those traditional manufacturing companies in Asia,” Hong Sung Ki, a commodities analyst at Samsung Futures Inc., said by phone from Seoul. “Oil explorers as well as steel companies that supply pipeline makers will start boosting investment and production as oil prices are on the rise in the long term.”

Asian energy stocks are surging the most in almost 10 months, with exploration companies such as Australia’s Santos Ltd. and Tokyo-based Inpex Corp., Japan’s biggest oil and gas explorer, leading gains.

Fossil fuel investors seek risks disclosure

▻http://us6.campaign-archive1.com/?u=6e13c74c17ec527c4be72d64f&id=f20103f029&e=08052803c8

Fossil fuel investors
seek risks disclosure

US investors worried about the value of their shares in fossil fuel companies want more information about climate change’s financial effects.

By Kieran Cooke

SAN FRANCISCO, 4 October, 2016 – On one side are the big oil and gas companies. On the other is an increasingly vocal group of investors – both big and small – who are worried about the declining value of billions of dollars’ worth of shares they hold in these mighty conglomerates.

Investors in the oil majors, already stung by a tumble in the value of their holdings due to the global slump in oil prices, say the fossil fuel companies − in particular, Exxon, the most powerful in the world − are failing to disclose vital financial information.

#climat #énergie_fossile

Singapore Defaults Boost Calls for Aid as Oil Firms Falter - Bloomberg
▻http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-18/singapore-defaults-boost-calls-for-state-aid-as-oil-firms-falter

Singaporean companies struggling to meet debt obligations as oil prices slump may get more support from the government if the economy deteriorates further, according to global auditing firm EY. UBS Group AG’s wealth management unit warns more defaults are possible.
[…]
The marine and offshore industry, which includes the world’s two biggest oil rig builders Keppel Corp. and Sembcorp Marine Ltd., provides about 19 percent of Singapore’s manufacturing jobs. Unemployment in the city rose to its highest level in more than two years in the second quarter, at 2.1 percent, as both companies slashed jobs.

Swiber’s default follows missed payments in the city by telecommunications provider PT Trikomsel Oke and seafood producer Pacific Andes Resources Development Ltd. Malaysian oil and gas company Perisai Petroleum Teknologi Bhd. said on Aug. 18 it’s seeking to engage holders of its S$125 million notes maturing on Oct. 3.

Oil and shipping markets on edge after South China Sea ruling | Reuters
▻http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-ruling-shipping-idUSKCN0ZS1AJ

Deux points de vue sur la liberté de navigation en #Mer_de_Chine_méridionale, l’un « politique », l’autre (un assureur) « pragmatique »…

The ruling will be seen as a victory by other regional claimants such the Philippines and Vietnam, but with China rejecting the ruling and saying its military would defend its sovereign rights, nerves were on edge.

Although shippers and oil traders said they did not expect an immediate impact on shipping as a result of the ruling, oil prices jumped following the findings. Brent crude futures were up over $1, or more than 2 percent, to $47.60 per barrel at 1110 GMT.

“It is vital that merchant ships are allowed to go about their lawful business on the world’s oceans without diversion or delay. We will of course be monitoring for any interference in the coming weeks,” said Peter Hinchliffe, Secretary General of the International Chamber of Shipping in London.
[…]
Neil Roberts, manager of marine underwriting at the Lloyd’s Market Association, said the South China Sea is not listed by the LMA’s joint war committee which highlights insurance hotspots.

“Unless it is there would be no prospect of premiums rising,” Roberts told Reuters. “The shallow waters and numerous reefs in the Spratly island region means that commercial shipping is unlikely to be sailing within the territorial waters of any of the islands.”

The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer : Saudi soccer crisis : A microcosm of what reform means for the kingdom
▻https://mideastsoccer.blogspot.fr/2016/07/saudi-soccer-crisis-microcosm-of-what.html

Qu’on la trouve pertinente ou non en définitive, l’analyse de James Dorsey sur le management du foot et la possibilité pour l’Arabie saoudite de se réformer mérite d’être lue.

The resignation of Prince Nawaf and the campaign against Prince Faisal gained added significance in a nation in which the results of premier league clubs associated with various members of the kingdom’s secretive royal family are seen as a barometer of their relative status, particularly at a time that its septuagenarian and octogenarian leaders have initiated a generational transition and are seeking to restructure the economy and recast the social contract without granting political concessions.

“The Saudis are extremely worried. Soccer clubs rather than the mosque are likely to be the centre of any revolution. Kids go more to stadiums than to mosques. They are not religious, they are not ruled by religious dogma,” said Washington-based Saudi dissident Ali al-Ahmad, who heads the Gulf Institute.

Mr. Al-Ahmad was referring to the power of clerics preaching Wahhabism, the puritan interpretation of Islam developed by 18th century preacher Mohammed ibn Abdul Al-Wahhab. Saudi Arabia’s ruling Al Saud family established the kingdom with the help of the Wahhabis who in return were granted the right to ensure that their views would dominate public life.

Similarly, the federation’s ban on the hiring of foreign talent came as Prince Mohammed was seeking to force employers to replace foreign labour with Saudi nationals. The effort that predates last year’s accession to the throne of King Salman and the instalment of Prince Mohammed as one of the kingdom’s most powerful men provoked soccer opposition already in late 2014.

Clubs resisted the application of a quota system to soccer and warned that it would put them at a disadvantage in international competitions. The problem of Saudi clubs was compounded by the kingdom’s reluctance to encourage Saudi players to garner experience by playing abroad for foreign clubs.

Saudi Arabia has long had a complex relationship with soccer because it evokes passions similar to those sparked by religion. Saudi clerics rolled out mobile mosques during the 2010 World Cup in South Africa in an effort to persuade fans gathered in cafes to watch matches to observe obligatory prayer times.

A senior Saudi soccer executive highlighted a key Saudi soccer problem, saying that “we are funded by the government to serve the country.” With oil prices strongly reduced, Saudi Arabia, like other countries is seeking to cut costs and control spending, making less money available to soccer clubs.
Equally importantly, serving the country in Saudi Arabia means the government’s desire to control soccer because it provides popular entertainment and often deviates attention from more political concerns, yet constitutes a potentially powerful venue for the expression of dissent.

To achieve Vision 2030’s goals of greater Saudi competitiveness and transparency, Prince Mohammed and the federation will have to square those goals with dealing with the corrosive effect of political interference in the sport, particularly by members of the ruling family. Dealing publicly with match fixing and debt suggests the government and the federation may have taken a first step.

The World’s Top Three Shipyards Want to Raise $7.3 Billion in Revamp - Bloomberg
▻http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-08/world-s-top-three-shipyards-seek-to-raise-7-3-billion-in-revamp

The world’s three biggest shipyards, battered by the deepest industry slump in at least two decades, are getting a helping hand — from the state.

South Korea’s government is at the forefront of efforts to revive the shipbuilders, which employ almost 62,000 people, or 1.4 percent of the nation’s manufacturing sector workforce. After pledging active steps in April to help the sector weather the slowdown, policy makers in Seoul on Wednesday announced an 11 trillion-won ($9.5 billion) fund to help lenders absorb losses.

For their part, Hyundai Heavy Industries Co., Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co. and Samsung Heavy Industries Co. unveiled plans to raise a combined 8.41 trillion won selling assets as part of the restructuring. The companies have struggled with losses and mounting debt after a slide in crude oil prices, which more than halved in the past two years, prompted customers to slash investments, and cancel or postpone projects.

5 reasons why it’s been a brutal week for Saudi Arabia
▻http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/20/5-reasons-why-its-been-a-brutal-week-for-saudi-arabia.html

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Thursday that real gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the country is projected at 1.2 percent this year, down from 3.5 percent in 2015.
(...) Public borrowing has begun to play a bigger role in financing the fiscal deficit, which slowed down the erosion in fiscal reserves. But, as noted above, the lack of transparency in public borrowing makes it difficult to monitor fiscal developments," the French banks (BNP Paribas) said in a note on Thursday.
(...) BNP Paribas said the “continued rapid decline” in foreign-exchange reserves should be ringing alarm bells. “The decline in reserves (from 2015) far exceeds the current account deficit, which implies that, in addition to the terms-of-trade shock, the country is also facing capital outflows,” it added.
(...) “Without meaningful reform, we believe Saudi Arabia faces another protracted cycle of stagnation and decay as the most recent boom unwinds – a disturbing, and, we believe, highly motivating prospect given that the Kingdom’s population is now twice as large as it was when the last boom went sour,” Simon Williams and Razan Nasser, two economists at HSBC, said in a note on Tuesday.
(...) On Saturday, ratings agency Moody’s downgraded Saudi Arabia’s credit rating by one notch, noting the fall in oil prices. It said the government had “ambitious and comprehensive” plans to address the shock by diversifying its economic and fiscal base, but added that those plans are at an early stage of development and their impact remained uncertain.

#arabie_saoudite

Something Stunning Is Taking Place Off The Coast Of Singapore | Zero Hedge
▻http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-20/something-stunning-taking-place-coast-singapore

The red dots show ships either at anchor or barely moving, either oil tankers or cargo, which have made the Straits of Malacca, one of the world’s most important shipping lanes which carries about a quarter of all seaborne oil primarily from the Persian Gulf headed to China, into a “bumper to bumper” parking lots of ships with tens of millions of barrels in combustible cargo.

it is also the topic of the latest Reuters expose on the historic physical crude oil glut which continues to build behind the scenes, and which so far has proven totally immune to dissipation as a result of the sharp increase in oil prices over the past three months.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/05/13/singapore%20ships_0.jpg

▻http://www.reuters.com/article/us-asia-oil-storage-idUSKCN0YA129

#Singapour #pétrole #cargo #tanker #transport_maritime

Big Oil Abandons $2.5 Billion in U.S. Arctic Drilling Rights - Bloomberg
▻http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-10/big-oil-abandons-2-5-billion-in-u-s-arctic-drilling-rights

Drillers forfeit millions of acres amid slump in oil prices
Royal Dutch Shell still holding on to one lease in Chukchi Sea

After plunking down more than $2.5 billion for drilling rights in U.S. Arctic waters, Royal Dutch Shell Plc, ConocoPhillips and other companies have quietly relinquished claims they once hoped would net the next big oil discovery.

The pullout comes as crude oil prices have plummeted to less than half their June 2014 levels, forcing oil companies to cut spending. For Shell and ConocoPhillips, the decision to abandon Arctic acreage was formalized just before a May 1 due date to pay the U.S. government millions of dollars in rent to keep holdings in the Chukchi Sea north of Alaska.

The U.S. Arctic is estimated to hold 27 billion barrels of oil and 132 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, but energy companies have struggled to tap resources buried below icy waters at the top of the globe.

Shell last year ended a nearly $8 billion, mishap-marred quest for Arctic crude after disappointing results from a test well in the Chukchi Sea. Shell decided the risk is not worth it for now, and other companies have likely come to the same conclusion, said Peter Kiernan, the lead energy analyst at The Economist Intelligence Unit.
“Arctic exploration has been put back several years, given the low oil price environment, the significant cost involved in exploration and the environmental risks that it entails,” he said.

All told, companies have relinquished 2.2 million acres of drilling rights in the Chukchi Sea — nearly 80 percent of the leases they bought from the U.S. government in a 2008 auction. Oil companies spent more than $2.6 billion snapping up 2.8 million acres in the Chukchi Sea during that sale, on top of previous purchases in the Beaufort Sea.

Shell relinquished 274 Chukchi leases and others in the neighboring Beaufort Sea. In doing so, the company forfeits what it paid the U.S government for the rights to drill in those tracts — and the millions of dollars it spent on annual rent since then.

“These actions are consistent with our earlier decision not to explore offshore Alaska for the foreseeable future,” Shell spokesman Curtis Smith said by e-mail. The decision also reflects the high costs of operating off Alaska’s northern coast and evolving regulatory standards, Smith said.

#Arctique #Mer_des_Tchouktches #Mer_de_Beaufort