Edward Dark, pseudonyme d’un alépin, dans un intéressant article - qui mérite d’être lu in extenso - où est brossé un tableau pessimiste de la situation actuelle depuis l’implication directe des Russes, aussi bien géopolitique (critiquant à la fois la stratégie russe et occidentale) que de la survie au quotidien des Syriens, évoque brièvement cette question :
▻http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/flawed-prescription-peace-syria-more-war-272837545
Already significant gains by government forces and local and foreign-supporting paramilitary militias in south Aleppo on long frozen fronts, have been met with an unprecedented “unspoken alliance” between rival jihadi groups. It seems they’ve put aside their differences for now, and have coordinated an attack on the only supply route to government-controlled Aleppo city, effectively besieging around two million people and cutting off military supplies to the ongoing offensive there.
As ISIS launched suicide car bombs and captured parts of the long road, various rebel factions lead by al-Nusra attempted to cut off the route at the entrance to Aleppo. This unprecedented coordination between former sworn jihadi enemies is an ominous harbinger of what may come as a result of Russian intervention, but only time will tell if those fickle alliances will hold and morph into a “super jihadi” merger in the face of a shared existential threat.
En passant Dark rappelle ce qui est un secret honteux que partagent les différents diplomates. Si certains insistent tellement sur un calendrier de départ d’Assad, depuis qu’il est admis qu’il devra faire partie d’une éventuelle période de transition, tandis que d’autres insistent sur le fait que seuls les Syriens doivent pouvoir en décider, c’est que dans la situation actuelle, si des élections régulières étaient menées, Assad les gagnerait probablement :
A flurry of diplomacy and hastily convened meetings have failed to reach any consensus on the way forward in Syria, the major sticking point as usual being the impasse over the fate of Assad. Moscow would like to see him lead a transitional period and then run in elections, which he stands a good chance of winning. But given the fractured social and territorial state of Syria and the ongoing instability and violence, a free and representative ballot is next to impossible. The powerful backers of his opponents and various insurgent groups want to see him leave immediately or after a very short time, either way they envision no future for him in Syria.
