organization:north atlantic treaty organization

  • Kremlin says Syrian territorial integrity fundamental for Russia Reuters 11 mars 2016
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-kremlin-idUSKCN0WD0XT

    The Kremlin said on Friday that maintaining Syria’s territorial integrity was vital for Russia and that it expected all the relevant delegations to attend peace talks aimed at ending the Syrian conflict in Geneva next week.
    Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin spokesman, told reporters keeping Syria territorially whole was probably “a cornerstone” for many countries and a priority for Russia.

    #partition #Syrie #Russie

    • Ni partition ni fédéralisation forcée :
      Russia says no to Syrian federalization as former NATO commander talks partition
      https://www.rt.com/news/335384-syria-ceasefire-federalization-partition

      “While insisting on retaining the territorial integrity of Syria, so continuing to keep it as a single country, of course there are all sorts of different models of a federal structure that would, in some models, have a very, very loose center and a lot of autonomy for different regions,” a diplomatic source at the UN Security Council told the agency.
      However, the Kremlin responded by saying that no such talks were on the table – a message that was emphasized by Russia’s Foreign Ministry on Saturday.
      “That is total nonsense. We are not voicing such ideas; they must come from the Syrians themselves – it is up to them to discuss and agree on such things,” deputy foreign minister Mikhail Bogdanov said, as cited by TASS.
      Bogdanov added that, from Russia’s point of view, it is better to maintain Syria’s territorial integrity and keep its people intact.

  • Nato chief: Vladimir Putin ’weaponising’ refugee crisis to ’break’ Europe - Telegraph
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/12180073/Nato-chief-Vladimir-Putin-weaponising-refugee-crisis-to-break-Europe.ht

    Vladimir Putin is purposefully creating a refugee crisis in order to “overwhelm” and “break” Europe, Nato’s military commander in Europe said today.

    Gen Philip Breedlove, the Supreme Allied Commander Europe and the head of the US European Command, said that President Putin and Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad had “weaponised” migration through a campaign of bombardment against civilian centres.

    #impudence

  • Turkey thanks Merkel for support of #safe_zones in Syria

    Turkey’s foreign minister has thanked German Chancellor Angela Merkel for her support of the Turkish government’s demand to establish safe zones inside Syria, while U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry expressed wariness over a safe zone in Syria, saying that up to 30,000 troops would be needed to maintain the area.

    http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-thanks-merkel-for-support-of-safe-zones-in-syria.aspx?page

    Commentaire reçu via la mailing-list Migreurop :

    - De facto, since Aleppo bombing by Russian army, Syrians cannot enter any more Turkey. They are stopped at the border. This decision was taken by Turkey without any existence of “safe zone” yet. This means that protection of the population is not the main goal behind this decision of “safe zone” in Syria: stemming the “inflow” of refugees is the main objective.

    – Again, militarization of refugee “problems”: refugees will be surrounded by army to “protect” them. According to John Kerry, the deployment of up to 30,000 troops is needed and nobody agreed clearly on such deployment. Merkel agrees on safe zone but it is not sure that such protection can be granted to refugees. And what does protection mean when such troops can be the proper target of armed groups in Syria?

    – Merkel still raises her voice to welcome refugees in Europe and faces all other European countries, stuck in the closure of borders. But meanwhile, Merkel agrees de facto on the closure of all Turkish borders: Germany controls NATO operations at sea and support Turkish desire of establishing a “safe zone”.

    – Hypocrisy: "This proposal of Turkey was not seriously discussed when we first brought it to the agenda. But even with delay, Turkey’s proposal is now understood”. NO: the idea of safe zones had been rejected by the international community as an irrelevant “solution” that went against refugees safety. It had been seriously discussed and rejected with arguments. “Given the huge refugee problem threatening the EU’s unity”, Germany (and certainly the European Union will follow Merkel) changes her mind. For European ’safety’ and ’peace’, not for refugees’ protection.

    #Allemagne #Turquie #réfugiés #asile #migrations #safe_zone #Syrie #safe_zones #zone_sure #zones_sures

  • Companies from 20 countries involved in Islamic State bomb supply chain - Yahoo Finance UK
    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/islamic-state-bomb-supply-chain-includes-firms-20-000359241.html

    Companies from 20 countries are involved in the supply chain of components that end up in Islamic State explosives, a study found on Thursday, suggesting governments and firms need to do more to track the flow of cables, chemicals and other equipment.
    The European Union-mandated study showed that 51 companies from countries including Turkey, Brazil, and the United States produced, sold or received the more than 700 components used by Islamic State to build improvised explosive devices (IEDs).
    IEDs are now being produced on a “quasi-industrial scale” by the militant group, which uses both industrial components that are regulated and widely available equipment such as fertiliser chemicals and mobile phones, according to Conflict Armament Research (CAR), which undertook the 20-month study.
    Islamic State controls large swathes of Iraq and Syria. NATO member Turkey shares borders with both countries and has stepped up security to prevent the flow of weapons and insurgents to the hardline Sunni group.
    A total of 13 Turkish firms were found to be involved in the supply chain, the most in any one country. That was followed by India with seven.
    […]
    Bevan said the Turkish government refused to cooperate with CAR’s investigation so the group was not able to determine the efficacy of Ankara’s regulations regarding the tracking of components.
    Turkish government officials did not reply to requests for comment.
    […]
    Seven Indian companies manufactured most of the detonators, detonating cord, and safety fuses documented by CAR. Those were all legally exported under government-issued licences from India to entities in Lebanon and Turkey, CAR found.
    Companies from Brazil, Romania, Russia, the Netherlands, China, Switzerland, Austria and Czech Republic were also involved, the report found.

  • Liberal, Harsh Denmark
    Hugh Eakin

    A cartoon published by the Danish newspaper Politiken showing Inger Støjberg, the country’s integration minister, lighting candles on a Christmas tree that has a dead asylum-­seeker as an ornament, December 2015
    Anne-Marie Steen Petersen

    1.
    In country after country across Europe, the Syrian refugee crisis has put intense pressure on the political establishment. In Poland, voters have brought to power a right-wing party whose leader, Jarosław Kaczyński, warns that migrants are bringing “dangerous diseases” and “various types of parasites” to Europe. In France’s regional elections in December, some Socialist candidates withdrew at the last minute to support the conservatives and prevent the far-right National Front from winning. Even Germany, which took in more than a million asylum-seekers in 2015, has been forced to pull back in the face of a growing revolt from Chancellor Angela Merkel’s own party and the recent New Year’s attacks on women in Cologne, allegedly by groups of men of North African origin.
    And then there is Denmark. A small, wealthy Scandinavian democracy of 5.6 million people, it is according to most measures one of the most open and egalitarian countries in the world. It has the highest income equality and one of the lowest poverty rates of any Western nation. Known for its nearly carbon-neutral cities, its free health care and university education for all, its bus drivers who are paid like accountants, its robust defense of gay rights and social freedoms, and its vigorous culture of social and political debate, the country has long been envied as a social-democratic success, a place where the state has an improbably durable record of doing good. Danish leaders also have a history of protecting religious minorities: the country was unique in Nazi-occupied Europe in prosecuting anti-Semitism and rescuing almost its entire Jewish population.
    When it comes to refugees, however, Denmark has long led the continent in its shift to the right—and in its growing domestic consensus that large-scale Muslim immigration is incompatible with European social democracy. To the visitor, the country’s resistance to immigrants from Africa and the Middle East can seem implacable. In last June’s Danish national election—months before the Syrian refugee crisis hit Europe—the debate centered around whether the incumbent, center-left Social Democrats or their challengers, the center-right Liberal Party, were tougher on asylum-seekers. The main victor was the Danish People’s Party, a populist, openly anti-immigration party, which drew 21 percent of the vote, its best performance ever. Its founder, Pia Kjærsgaard, for years known for suggesting that Muslims “are at a lower stage of civilization,” is now speaker of the Danish parliament. With the backing of the Danish People’s Party, the center-right Liberals formed a minority government that has taken one of the hardest lines on refugees of any European nation.
    When I arrived in Copenhagen last August, the new government, under Liberal Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, had just cut social benefits to refugees by 45 percent. There was talk among Danish politicians and in the Danish press of an “invasion” from the Middle East—though the influx at the time was occurring in the Greek islands, more than one thousand miles away. In early September, Denmark began taking out newspaper ads in Lebanon and Jordan warning would-be asylum-seekers not to come. And by November, the Danish government announced that it could no longer accept the modest share of one thousand refugees assigned to Denmark under an EU redistribution agreement, because Italy and Greece had lost control of their borders.
    These developments culminated in late January of this year, when Rasmussen’s minister of integration, Inger Støjberg, a striking, red-headed forty-two-year-old who has come to represent the government’s aggressive anti-refugee policies, succeeded in pushing through parliament an “asylum austerity” law that has gained notoriety across Europe. The new law, which passed with support from the Social Democrats as well as the Danish People’s Party, permits police to strip-search asylum-seekers and confiscate their cash and most valuables above 10,000 Danish kroner ($1,460) to pay for their accommodation; delays the opportunity to apply for family reunification by up to three years; forbids asylum-seekers from residing outside refugee centers, some of which are tent encampments; reduces the cash benefits they can receive; and makes it significantly harder to qualify for permanent residence. One aim, a Liberal MPexplained to me, is simply to “make Denmark less attractive to foreigners.”
    Danish hostility to refugees is particularly startling in Scandinavia, where there is a pronounced tradition of humanitarianism. Over the past decade, the Swedish government has opened its doors to hundreds of thousands of Iraqis and Syrians, despite growing social problems and an increasingly popular far-right party. But one of the things Danish leaders—and many Danes I spoke to—seem to fear most is turning into “another Sweden.” Anna Mee Allerslev, the top integration official for the city of Copenhagen, told me that the Danish capital, a Social Democratic stronghold with a large foreign-born population, has for years refused to take any refugees. (Under pressure from other municipalities, this policy is set to change in 2016.)
    In part, the Danish approach has been driven by the country’s long experience with terrorism and jihadism. Nearly a decade before the Charlie Hebdo attacks in Paris in January 2015, and the coordinated terrorist attacks in Paris in November, the publication of the so-called Muhammad cartoons by the Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten had already turned Denmark into a primary target for extremists. Initially driven by a group of Danish imams, outcry against the cartoons gave strength to several small but radical groups among the country’s 260,000 Muslims. These groups have been blamed for the unusually large number of Danes—perhaps as many as three hundred or more—who have gone to fight in Syria, including some who went before the rise ofISIS in 2013. “The Danish system has pretty much been blinking red since 2005,” Magnus Ranstorp, a counterterrorism expert who advises the PET, the Danish security and intelligence service, told me.
    Since the publication of the Muhammad cartoons, the PET and other intelligence forces have disrupted numerous terrorist plots, some of them eerily foreshadowing what happened in Paris last year. In 2009, the Pakistani-American extremist David Headley, together with Laskar-e-Taiba, a Pakistani terrorist organization, devised a meticulous plan to storm the Jyllands-Posten offices in Copenhagen and systematically kill all the journalists that could be found. Headley was arrested in the United States in October 2009, before any part of the plan was carried out; in 2013, he was sentenced by a US district court to thirty-five years in prison for his involvement in the Mumbai attacks of 2008.
    In February of last year, just weeks after the Charlie Hebdo attacks, a young Danish-Palestinian man named Omar Abdel Hamid el-Hussein tried to shoot his way into the Copenhagen meeting of a free-speech group to which a Swedish cartoonist, known for his caricatures of Muhammad, had been invited. El-Hussein succeeded in killing a Danish filmmaker at the meeting before fleeing the scene; then, hours later, he killed a security guard at the city’s main synagogue and was shot dead by police.
    Yet many Danes I talked to are less concerned about terrorism than about the threat they see Muslims posing to their way of life. Though Muslims make up less than 5 percent of the population, there is growing evidence that many of the new arrivals fail to enter the workforce, are slow to learn Danish, and end up in high-crime immigrant neighborhoods where, while relying on extensive state handouts, they and their children are cut off from Danish society. In 2010, the Danish government introduced a “ghetto list” of such marginalized places with the goal of “reintegrating” them; the list now includes more than thirty neighborhoods.
    Popular fears that the refugee crisis could overwhelm the Danish welfare state have sometimes surprised the country’s own leadership. On December 3, in a major defeat for the government, a clear majority of Danes—53 percent—rejected a referendum on closer security cooperation with the European Union. Until now, Denmark has been only a partial EU member—for example, it does not belong to the euro and has not joined EU protocols on citizenship and legal affairs. In view of the growing threat of jihadism, both the government and the opposition Social Democrats hoped to integrate the country fully into European policing and counterterrorism efforts. But the “no” vote, which was supported by the Danish People’s Party, was driven by fears that such a move could also give Brussels influence over Denmark’s refugee and immigration policies.
    The outcome of the referendum has ominous implications for the European Union at a time when emergency border controls in numerous countries—including Germany and Sweden as well as Denmark—have put in doubt the Schengen system of open borders inside the EU. In Denmark itself, the referendum has forced both the Liberals and the Social Democrats to continue moving closer to the populist right. In November, Martin Henriksen, the Danish People’s Party spokesman on refugees and immigration, toldPolitiken, the country’s leading newspaper, “There is a contest on to see who can match the Danish People’s Party on immigration matters, and I hope that more parties will participate.”
    2.
    According to many Danes I met, the origins of Denmark’s anti-immigration consensus can be traced to the national election of November 2001, two months after the September 11 attacks in the United States. At the time, the recently founded Danish People’s Party was largely excluded from mainstream politics; the incumbent prime minister, who was a Social Democrat, famously described the party as unfit to govern.
    But during the 1990s, the country’s Muslim population had nearly doubled to around 200,000 people, and in the 2001 campaign, immigration became a central theme. The Social Democrats suffered a devastating defeat and, for the first time since 1924, didn’t control the most seats in parliament. Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the ambitious leader of the victorious Liberal Party (no relation to the current prime minister, Lars Løkke Rasmussen), made a historic decision to form a government with support from the Danish People’s Party, which had come in third place—a far-right alliance that had never been tried in Scandinavia. It kept Fogh Rasmussen in power for three terms.
    From an economic perspective, the government’s embrace of the populist right was anomalous. With its unique combination of comprehensive welfare and a flexible labor market—known as flexicurity—Denmark has an efficient economy in which the rate of job turnover is one of the highest in Europe, yet almost 75 percent of working-age Danes are employed. At the same time, the country’s extraordinary social benefits, such as long-term education, retraining, and free child care, are based on integration in the workforce. Yet many of the qualities about the Danish system that work so well for those born into it have made it particularly hard for outsiders to penetrate.
    Denmark is a mostly low-lying country consisting of the Jutland Peninsula in the west, the large islands of Funen and Zealand in the east, and numerous smaller islands. (It also includes the island of Greenland, whose tiny population is largely Inuit.) The modern state emerged in the late nineteenth century, following a series of defeats by Bismarck’s Germany in which it lost much of its territory and a significant part of its population. Several Danish writers have linked this founding trauma to a lasting national obsession with invasion and a continual need to assert danskhed, or Danishness.
    Among other things, these preoccupations have given the Danish welfare system an unusually important part in shaping national identity. Visitors to Denmark will find the Danish flag on everything from public buses to butter wrappers; many of the country’s defining institutions, from its universal secondary education (Folkehøjskoler—the People’s High Schools) to the parliament (Folketinget—the People’s House) to the Danish national church (Folkekirken—the People’s Church) to the concept of democracy itself (Folkestyret—the Rule of the People) have been built to reinforce a strong sense of folke, the Danish people.
    One result of this emphasis on cohesion is the striking contrast between how Danes view their fellow nationals and how they seem to view the outside world: in 1997, a study of racism in EU countries found Danes to be simultaneously among the most tolerant and also the most racist of any European population. “In the nationalist self-image, tolerance is seen as good,” writes the Danish anthropologist Peter Hervik. “Yet…excessive tolerance is considered naive and counterproductive for sustaining Danish national identity.”
    According to Hervik, this paradox helps account for the rise of the Danish People’s Party, or Dansk Folkeparti. Like its far-right counterparts in neighboring countries, the party drew on new anxieties about non-European immigrants and the growing influence of the EU. What made the Danish People’s Party particularly potent, however, was its robust defense of wealth redistribution and advanced welfare benefits for all Danes. “On a traditional left-right scheme they are very difficult to locate,” former prime minister Fogh Rasmussen told me in Copenhagen. “They are tough on crime, tough on immigration, but on welfare policy, they are center left. Sometimes they even try to surpass the Social Democrats.”
    Beginning in 2002, the Fogh Rasmussen government passed a sweeping set of reforms to limit the flow of asylum-seekers. Among the most controversial were the so-called twenty-four-year rule, which required foreign-born spouses to be at least twenty-four years old to qualify for Danish citizenship, and a requirement that both spouses combined had spent more years living in Denmark than in any other country. Unprecedented in Europe, the new rules effectively ended immigrant marriages as a quick path to citizenship. At the same time, the government dramatically restricted the criteria under which a foreigner could qualify for refugee status.
    To Fogh Rasmussen’s critics, the measures were simply a way to gain the support of the Danish People’s Party for his own political program. This included labor market reforms, such as tying social benefits more closely to active employment, and—most notably—a muscular new foreign policy. Departing from Denmark’s traditional neutrality, the government joined with US troops in military interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq; Denmark has since taken part in the interventions in Libya and Syria as well. (In his official state portrait in the parliament, Fogh Rasmussen, who went on to become general secretary of NATO in 2009, is depicted with a Danish military plane swooping over a desolate Afghan landscape in the background.)
    Yet the immigration overhaul also had strong foundations in the Liberal Party. In 1997, Bertel Haarder, a veteran Liberal politician and strategist, wrote an influential book called Soft Cynicism, which excoriated the Danish welfare system for creating, through excessive coddling, the very stigmatization of new arrivals to Denmark that it was ostensibly supposed to prevent. Haarder, who went on to become Fogh Rasmussen’s minister of immigration, told me, “The Danes wanted to be soft and nice. And we turned proud immigrants into social welfare addicts. It wasn’t their fault. It was our fault.”
    According to Haarder, who has returned to the Danish cabinet as culture minister in the current Liberal government, the refugees who have come to Denmark in recent years overwhelmingly lack the education and training needed to enter the country’s advanced labor market. As Fogh Rasmussen’s immigration minister, he sought to match the restrictions on asylum-seekers with expedited citizenship for qualified foreigners. But he was also known for his criticism of Muslims who wanted to assert their own traditions: “All this talk about equality of cultures and equality of religion is nonsense,” he told a Danish newspaper in 2002. “The Danes have the right to make decisions in Denmark.”
    3.
    Coming amid the Fogh Rasmussen government’s rightward shift on immigration and its growing involvement in the “war on terror,” the decision by the Danish paperJyllands-Posten in September 2005 to publish caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad seemed to bring into the open an irresolvable conflict. In the decade since they appeared, the cartoons have been linked to the torching of Western embassies, an unending series of terrorist attacks and assassination plots across Europe, and a sense, among many European intellectuals, that Western society is being cowed into a “tyranny of silence,” as Flemming Rose, the former culture editor of Jyllands-Postenwho commissioned the cartoons and who now lives under constant police protection, has titled a recent book.1 In his new study of French jihadism, Terreur dans l’hexagone: Genèse du djihad français, Gilles Kepel, the French scholar of Islam, suggests that the cartoons inspired an “international Islamic campaign against little Denmark” that became a crucial part of a broader redirection of jihadist ideology toward the West.
    And yet little about the original twelve cartoons could have foretold any of this. Traditionally based in Jutland, Jyllands-Posten is a center-right broadsheet that tends to draw readers from outside the capital; it was little known abroad before the cartoons appeared. Following reports that a Danish illustrator had refused to do drawings for a book about Muhammad, Rose invited a group of caricaturists to “draw Muhammad as you see him” to find out whether they were similarly inhibited (most of them weren’t). Some of the resulting drawings made fun of the newspaper itself for pursuing the idea; in the subsequent controversy, outrage was largely directed at just one of the cartoons, which depicted the Prophet wearing a lit bomb as a turban. Even then, the uproar began only months later, after the Danish prime minister refused a request from diplomats of Muslim nations for a meeting about the cartoons. “I thought it was a trap,” Fogh Rasmussen told me. At the same time, several secular Arab regimes, including Mubarak’s Egypt and Assad’s Syria, concluded that encouraging vigorous opposition to the cartoons could shore up their Islamist credentials.
    Once angry mass protests had finally been stirred up throughout the Muslim world in late January and early February 2006—including in Egypt, Iran, Sudan, Syria, Lebanon, and Afghanistan—the crisis quickly took on a logic that had never existed at the outset: attacks against Western targets led many newspapers in the West to republish the cartoons in solidarity, which in turn provoked more attacks. By the time of the Charlie Hebdo massacre in early 2015, there was a real question of what Timothy Garton Ash, in these pages, has called “the assassin’s veto,” the fact that some newspapers might self-censor simply to avoid further violence.2 Jyllands-Posten itself, declaring in an editorial in January 2015 that “violence works,” no longer republishes the cartoons.
    Lost in the geopolitical fallout, however, was the debate over Danish values that the cartoons provoked in Denmark itself. Under the influence of the nineteenth-century state builder N.F.S. Grundtvig, the founders of modern Denmark embraced free speech as a core value. It was the first country in Europe to legalize pornography in the 1960s, and Danes have long taken a special pleasure in cheerful, in-your-face irreverence. In December Politiken published a cartoon showing the integration minister Inger Støjberg gleefully lighting candles on a Christmas tree that has a dead asylum-seeker as an ornament (see illustration on page 34).
    Explaining his own reasons for commissioning the Muhammad cartoons, Flemming Rose has written of the need to assert the all-important right to “sarcasm, mockery, and ridicule” against an encroaching totalitarianism emanating from the Islamic world. He also makes clear that Muslims or any other minority group should be equally free to express their own views in the strongest terms. (Rose told me that he differs strongly with Geert Wilders, the prominent Dutch populist and critic of Islam. “He wants to ban the Koran. I say absolutely you can’t do that.”)
    But Rose’s views about speech have been actively contested. Bo Lidegaard, the editor of Politiken, the traditional paper of the Copenhagen establishment, was Fogh Rasmussen’s national security adviser at the time of the cartoons crisis. Politiken, which shares the same owner and inhabits the same high-security building as Jyllands-Posten, has long been critical of the publication of the cartoons by its sister paper, and Lidegaard was blunt. “It was a complete lack of understanding of what a minority religion holds holy,” he told me. “It also seemed to be mobbing a minority, by saying, in their faces, ‘We don’t respect your religion! You may think this is offensive but we don’t think its offensive, so you’re dumb!’”
    Lidegaard, who has written several books about Danish history, argues that the cartoons’ defenders misread the free speech tradition. He cites Denmark’s law against “threatening, insulting, or degrading” speech, which was passed by the Danish parliament in 1939, largely to protect the country’s Jewish minority from anti-Semitism. Remarkably, it remained in force—and was even invoked—during the Nazi occupation of Denmark. According to Lidegaard, it is a powerful recognition that upholding equal rights and tolerance for all can sometimes trump the need to protect extreme forms of speech.
    Today, however, few Danes seem concerned about offending Muslims. Neils-Erik Hansen, a leading Danish human rights lawyer, told me that the anti–hate speech law has rarely been used in recent years, and that in several cases of hate crimes against Muslim immigrants—a newspaper boy was killed after being called “Paki swine”—the authorities have shown little interest in invoking the statute. During the cartoon affair, Lidegaard himself was part of the foreign policy team that advised Prime Minister Fogh Rasmussen not to have talks with Muslim representatives. When I asked him about this, he acknowledged, “The government made some mistakes.”
    4.
    Last fall I visited Mjølnerparken, an overwhelmingly immigrant “ghetto” in north Copenhagen where Omar el-Hussein, the shooter in last year’s attack against the free speech meeting, had come from. Many of the youth there belong to gangs and have been in and out of prison; the police make frequent raids to search for guns. Upward of half the adults, many of them of Palestinian and Somali origin, are unemployed. Eskild Pedersen, a veteran social worker who almost single-handedly looks after the neighborhood, told me that hardly any ethnic Danes set foot there. This was Denmark at its worst.
    And yet there was little about the tidy red-brick housing blocks or the facing playground, apart from a modest amount of graffiti, that suggested dereliction or squalor. Pedersen seems to have the trust of many of his charges. He had just settled a complicated honor dispute between two Somalian families; and as we spoke, a Palestinian girl, not more than six, interrupted to tell him about a domestic violence problem in her household. He has also found part-time jobs for several gang members, and helped one of them return to school; one young man of Palestinian background gave me a tour of the auto body shop he had started in a nearby garage. (When a delegation of Egyptians was recently shown the neighborhood, the visitors asked, “Where is the ghetto?”)
    But in Denmark, the police force is regarded as an extension of the social welfare system and Pedersen also makes it clear, to the young men especially, that he works closely with law enforcement. As last year’s shooting reveals, it doesn’t always work. But city officials in Copenhagen and in Aarhus, Denmark’s second city, describe some cases in which local authorities, drawing on daily contact with young and often disaffected Muslims, including jihadists returning from Syria, have been able to preempt extremist behavior.
    Across Europe in recent weeks, shock over the arrival of hundreds of thousands of refugees has quickly been overtaken by alarm over the challenge they are now seen as posing to social stability. Several countries that have been welcoming to large numbers of Syrian and other asylum-seekers are confronting growing revolts from the far right—along with anti-refugee violence. In December Die Zeit, the German newsweekly, reported that more than two hundred German refugee shelters have been attacked or firebombed over the past year; in late January, Swedish police intercepted a gang of dozens of masked men who were seeking to attack migrants near Stockholm’s central station. Since the beginning of 2016, two notorious far-right, anti-immigration parties—the Sweden Democrats in Sweden and Geert Wilders’s Party for Freedom in the Netherlands—became more popular than the ruling parties in their respective countries, despite being excluded from government.
    Nor is the backlash limited to the right. Since the New Year’s attacks by migrants against women in Cologne, conservative opponents of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s refugee policy have been joined by feminists and members of the left, who have denounced the “patriarchal” traditions of the “Arab man.” Recent data on the anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats, who in January were polling at 28 percent of the popular vote, shows that the party’s steady rise during Sweden’s decade of open-asylum policies has closely tracked a parallel decline in support for the center-left Social Democrats, the traditional force in Swedish politics. Confronted with such a populist surge, the Swedish government announced on January 27 that it plans to deport as many as 80,000 asylum-seekers.
    As the advanced democracies of Europe reconsider their physical and psychological borders with the Muslim world, the restrictive Danish approach to immigration and the welfare state offers a stark alternative. Brought into the political process far earlier than its counterparts elsewhere, the Danish People’s Party is a good deal more moderate than, say, the National Front in France; but it also has succeeded in shaping, to an extraordinary degree, the Danish immigration debate. In recent weeks, Denmark’s Social Democrats have struggled to define their own immigration policy amid sagging support. When I asked former prime minister Fogh Rasmussen about how the Danish People’s Party differed from the others on asylum-seekers and refugees, he said, “You have differences when it comes to rhetoric, but these are nuances.”
    In January, more than 60,000 refugees arrived in Europe, a thirty-five-fold increase from the same month last year; but in Denmark, according to Politiken, the number of asylum-seekers has steadily declined since the start of the year, with only 1,400 seeking to enter the country. In limiting the kind of social turmoil now playing out in Germany, Sweden, and France, the Danes may yet come through the current crisis a more stable, united, and open society than any of their neighbors. But they may also have shown that this openness extends no farther than the Danish frontier.
    —February 10, 2016

    #danemark #migrations #asile #réfugiés

  • IRIN | Why warships can’t solve the refugee crisis

    http://www.irinnews.org/opinion/2016/02/15/why-warships-can%E2%80%99t-solve-refugee-crisis

    By Ruben Andersson - IRIN Columnist

    Tout juste signalé et recommandé par @isskein

    Another week, another project scrawled on the back of a napkin to try to solve the refugee crisis. This time it’s ‘send in the warships’.

    The panicky decision to involve NATO is not only an unprecedented step in the militarisation of Europe’s borders but also fits into the long-term trend of viewing refugees and migrants arriving by boat as an emergency that can only be addressed with increased border security.

    #réfugiés #mirations #guerre_aux_migrants #mésiterranée

  • La Turquie bombarde à l’artillerie les positions prises par le YPG et les SDF dans la base de Menagh (poche d’Azaz, nord d’Alep) et aux alentours - ceci afin de freiner son avancée vers Azaz :
    http://news.yahoo.com/turkey-shells-kurdish-held-areas-syrias-aleppo-monitor-155529508.html;_y

    Beirut (AFP) - Turkish artillery on Saturday bombarded areas of Aleppo province in northern Syria controlled by Kurdish forces, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.
    The monitoring group’s head, Rami Abdel Rahman, said Turkish shelling struck areas of Aleppo, including Minnigh, recently taken by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) militia from Islamist rebels.

    Même un « jihadologue » avec des analyses aussi discutables et partisanes que Charles Lister relève la contradiction de la politique américaine : des brigades de l’ASL alliées aux Kurdes du YPG (au sein des SDF), et soutenues par les USA, sont bombardées par l’alliée des USA, la Turquie, en soutien à d’autres brigades de l’ASL soutenues par les USA, la Turquie et l’Arabie saoudite :
    https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/698535922338439168

    #Turkey (NATO member) is bombing #YPG (backed by US, #Russia) & SDF (backed by US), for attacking FSA (backed by US, Turkey & Saudi)

    On passera vite sur l’alliance des ces groupes de l’ASL, soutenus par la Turquie, avec divers groupes jihadistes car évidemment M. Lister aimerait, lui, que les USA cessent leur alliance avec le YPG et laissent les Turcs bombarder tranquillement le nord de la Syrie.

    Cette contradiction avait déjà été évoquée ici il y a deux mois : http://seenthis.net/messages/435727
    Elle semble en tout cas de plus en plus difficilement tenable.

    • La contradiction de cette politique s’exprime par des remontrances, pour l’instant un peu molles, du Département d’Etat aux deux camps :
      http://seenthis.net/messages/460841

      Le porte-parole du département d’Etat américain a condamné ces tirs :
      « Nous avons pressé les Kurdes syriens et d’autres forces affiliées au PYD de ne pas profiter de la confusion en s’emparant de nouveaux territoires. Nous avons aussi vu des informations concernant des tirs d’artillerie depuis le côté turc de la frontière et avons exhorté la Turquie à cesser ces tirs ».

      Article du Monde signalé par @simplicissimus

    • #Syrie: Le Front al-#Nosra reçoit des renforts via la #Turquie
      http://fr.sputniknews.com/international/20160214/1021748782/syrie-renforts-terroristes-transit-turquie.html

      Près de 400 combattants du groupe djihadiste Légion du Sham (Faylaq al-Sham) sont arrivés à Tall Raafat, dans le gouvernorat d’Alep, en provenance d’Idlib, a annoncé dimanche la chaîne de télévision libanaise Al Mayadeen.

      Transitant par le territoire turc, ces « renforts » se battront aux côtés du Front al-Nosra contre les forces gouvernementales syriennes, précise Al Mayadeen.

    • Déclaration de Davutoglu : « la Turquie ne permettra pas la prise d’Azaz par les milices kurdes ». Le ministre des affaires étrangères turc revendique et justifie les bombardements à l’artillerie du YPG en sol syrien.
      http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-turkey-davutoglu-idUSKCN0VO0ZZ

      Turkey will not allow Azaz in northern Syria to fall to the Kurdish YPG militia and the group will face the “harshest reaction” if it tries to approach the town again, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said on Monday.
      Speaking to reporters on his plane en route to Ukraine, Davutoglu said YPG fighters would have seized control of Azaz and the town of Tal Rifaat further south had it not been for Turkish artillery shelling them over the weekend.
      "YPG elements were forced away from around Azaz. If they approach again they will see the harshest reaction. We will not allow Azaz to fall," Davutoglu said.
      He said Turkey would make the Syrian Menagh air base “unusable” if the YPG does not withdraw from the area, which it seized from Syrian rebels. He warned the YPG not to move east of its Afrin region or west of the Euphrates River.

      En attendant, le YPG et les SDF (le groupe Jaysh al-Thuwar, l’armée des révolutionnaires, issu de l’ASL : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Army_of_Revolutionaries) auraient pris le contrôle de la ville de Tall Rifaat contrôlé par les milices islamistes de Ahrar al-Cham al-islamiya et Harakat Noureddin al-Zenki

  • The Many Mideast Solutions - The New York Times
    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/10/opinion/the-many-mideast-solutions.html?smid=nytcore-ipad-share

    Tout arrive, signalé par Juan Cole je renvoie directement à l’article de Thomas Friedman, qu’il faut prendre pour ce qu’il est naturellement, un homme dont les avis sur la région sont marqués au coin d’un indéfectible soutien à Israël. Avis qui, justement pour cette raison, sont intéressants à connaître. Ses prévisions sont juste apocalyptiques. Et en cette fin de journée, je partage, non pas ses idées, ni même ses analyses mais sa noirceur qui ajoute aux nombreuses craintes qu’on se formule depuis longtemps.

    Tout de même, constater que même Friedman ne fait plus semblant de croire à la solution à deux Etats, c’est un signe à prendre en compte... Pour le reste, c’est terrifiant à lire parce que cela représente l’opinion d’une élite US qui s’intéresse aux questions internationales (par le biais israélo-US of course).

    ... with candidates spouting the usual platitudes about standing with our Israeli and Sunni Arab allies. Here’s a news flash: You can retire those platitudes. Whoever becomes the next president will have to deal with a totally different Middle East.

    It will be a Middle East shaped by struggle over a one-state solution, a no-state solution, a non-state solution and a rogue-state solution.

    That is, a one-state solution in Israel, a no-state solution in Syria, Yemen and Libya, a non-state solution offered by the Islamic caliphate and a rogue-state solution offered by Iran.

    Start with Israel. The peace process is dead. It’s over, folks, so please stop sending the New York Times Op-Ed page editor your proposals for a two-state solution between Israelis and Palestinians. The next U.S. president will have to deal with an Israel determined to permanently occupy all the territory between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea, including where 2.5 million West Bank Palestinians live.

    (...)

    So my advice to all the candidates is: Keep talking about the fantasy Middle East. I can always use a good bedtime story to fall asleep. But get ready for the real thing. This is not your grandfather’s Israel anymore, it’s not your oil company’s Saudi Arabia anymore, it’s not your NATO’s Turkey anymore, it’s not your cabdriver’s Iran anymore and it’s not your radical chic college professor’s Palestine anymore. It’s a wholly different beast now, slouching toward Bethlehem.

  • L’Europe continue de bricoler face à l’arrivée de migrants
    https://www.mediapart.fr/journal/international/120216/leurope-continue-de-bricoler-face-larrivee-de-migrants

    Ce début d’année 2016 montre que les arrivées de migrants ne ralentissent pas, au contraire. Après des mois d’atermoiements, l’Union européenne continue pourtant de bricoler. Dernière nouvelle en date : des navires de l’OTAN vont intervenir en mer Égée.

    #International #Alep #Allemagne #asile #europe #Grèce #hotspot #Lesbos #Otan #réfugiés #Syrie #turquie #union_européenne

    • En cherchant le film hors veoh.

      Russie politics : World War Three Inside the War Room et la tentation totalitaire en Occident
      http://russiepolitics.blogspot.de/2016/02/world-war-three-inside-war-room-et-la.html

      Tout d’abord, il a eu Occupied, et j’ai décidé de me taire, car cette série sur l’intervention russe en Norvège sur demande de l’UE le tout sur fond de guerre énergétique contre l’écologie et d’une fausse interrogation sur un hypothétique devoir de résistance populaire, était d’une absurdité sans nom. Finalement, c’était peut-être une erreur. Il faut s’exprimer sous peine de cautionner. Mais en parler, c’est donner aussi de l’importance à l’objet de la discussion et il me débectait de donner de l’importance à ces élucubrations.

      Maintenant, c’est la chaîne publique anglaise BBC 2 qui sort un film de fiction-documentaire selon lequel la Russie envahit la Lettonie et la question posée est de savoir s’il faut ou non massacrer quelques millions de russes. Encore un échelon a été franchi dans la guerre médiatique.

      Et là, il n’est plus possible de se taire. Comment se taire devant l’émergence récurrente d’éléments de totalitarisme dans notre Europe si tolérante, avec les siens. Mais prête à poser la question du massacre de millions d’êtres humains. Sans sourciller. Comment en sommes-nous arrivés là ?

      En plein prime time, la BBC sort un docu-fiction. Vous pouvez le voir en intégralité en anglais ici : World War Three : Inside the War Room.

      L’histoire de base est simple :

      « D’après le scénario, la Russie envahit la Lettonie pour soutenir les séparatistes pro-Kremlin qui se sont emparés d’une vingtaine de villes le long de la frontière russe. Alors que l’Otan tarde à intervenir, le Royaume-Uni et les Etats-Unis décident d’aider la Lettonie et d’évincer les forces russes de son territoire. La Russie répond par une attaque nucléaire dans laquelle 1.200 militaires britanniques trouvent la mort. Le Royaume-Uni refuse de recourir aux armes nucléaires pour aider l’Otan à reprendre le contrôle du Latgale (région à l’est de la Lettonie), mais pas les Etats-Unis. Une Troisième guerre mondiale éclate. »

      Comme l’écrit le Telegraph, le scénario est des plus réalistes depuis que la « Russie a anexé la Crimée » :

      « Nato has long been worried about Russian interference in the Baltic States and senior personnel regularly take part in war games to test how Western leaders would respond to conflict there. These exercises are top secret but now the BBC has run its own such war game and a new film shows what might happen in real life. World War Three : Inside the War Room convenes a war cabinet of former military and diplomatic figures to react to a hypothetical but all too plausible confrontation in Eastern Europe, given Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. »

      Ainsi, le docu-fiction commence par une réécriture de l’histoire : après que la Russie ait bombardé la Géorgie en 2008 (ce n’est plus la Géorgie qui a attaqué l’Ossétie du Sud), après que les troupes russes aient envahies l’Ukraine en 2014 (ce n’est plus Kiev qui s’est lancé contre le Donbass), ces fameuses et mystiques troupes russes arrivent dans les pays baltes et envahissent la Lettonie. Des images montées des conflits, notamment dans le Donbass, sont arrangées, mélangées à des images fictions, des prises de vues de V. Poutine avec modification des textes sont données les unes au milieu des autres pour montrer comment la population russe prend le contrôle du pays, un drapeau russe est hissé et l’armée russe est envoyée en soutien des combattants.

  • Nato orders fleet to deploy in Aegean Sea ’to help end Europe’s refugee crisis’ | Europe | News | The Independent

    Là, ce qui est impressionnant, c’est le titre : on comprend qu’ils veulent en finir avec la fameuse « crise des réfugiés » avec les trucs sur la photo, et du coup, on se dit : enfin, une vraie solution.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/nato-orders-fleet-to-deploy-in-aegean-sea-to-help-end-europes-refugee

    The Nato fleet is being deployed to the Aegean Sea immediately in a bid to end the flow of refugees crossing the sea into Europe from Turkey.

    #réfugiés #syrie #asile #crise_politique_européenne

  • Jamal Kashoggi, célèbre journaliste saoudien, réputé proche des services, nous livre sa brillante recette pour éviter la défaite saoudienne en Syrie. On peut se demander en quelle mesure tout cela correspond aux pensées en haut lieu. En tout cas, vous allez voir, c’est très simple et sans danger.
    http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/east-syria-vs-west-syria-914556837
    C’est plutôt la solution B évoquée ici, avec un petit supplément de A mineure : http://seenthis.net/messages/457855#message458439
    D’abord petit rappel de l’objectif, combattre l’Iran :

    Saudi Arabia’s motive is to prevent Iranian hegemony in Syria – an objective which it will not back down on. It wishes to break the stalemate that has gripped Syria after five years of bloodshed.

    Pour cela commencer à convaincre les Américains d’accepter la proposition des « boots on the ground » contre Da’ich à la prochaine réunion de Bruxelles. Le but est bien sûr de les entraîner dans l’aventure. S’il y a des réticences, on s’avance un peu sur le terrain avec les Turcs - surtout les Turcs ! - de manière à ce que la « communauté internationale » se sente menacée du risque d’une plus grande « catastrophe internationale ». En clair on fait monter la tension avec la Russie et on menace d’un affrontement direct qui impliquerait l’OTAN. Oui, d’un truc genre guerre mondiale, quoi.

    Riyadh would also be re-directing the attention of the international community to the Syrian crisis. When officials in Brussels or Washington see that a range of international forces that are hostile to each other gathering in a small spot in earth, they will surely think of beginning to act before it blows into a wider international catastrophe.

    En passant, on en profite pour filer des missiles sol-air à nos gentils rebelles (A mineure : option afghane-Stinger). Grâce à ça les Turcs pourront faire leur « buffer zone » au nord de la Syrie (A option Benghazi). Oui, oui, comme ça.

    Riyadh and Ankara should not miss the opportunity to support their trusted rebels as they advance, providing them with surface to air missiles. Turkey would then implement the buffer zone that it had long called for.

    Du coup, nos rebelles, appuyés par la coalition, pourront attaquer Da’ich - puisque c’est ce dont ils rêvent - et libérer les territoires de l’est (solution B). Et nous revoilà, avec le compère Erdogan, redevenus les facteurs principaux de l’équation syrienne. Car à ce moment-là on tiendra tout l’est. On en profitera alors pour faire la reconquête de l’ouest, ou obtenir aux négociations la chute d’Assad. Ou pas d’ailleurs. Une Syrie divisée et détruite peut aussi bien faire l’affaire !

    The world will have on its hand an “eastern Syria” versus a “western Syria” situation, based on sectarian lines. The Assad regime is advancing in Shia villages but faces fierce resistance in Sunni-majority areas. Even if the regime and its allies advance in Aleppo, they would be ruling it with an iron fist, which explains why there is already a mass of civilians fleeing it, as well as from the Latakia countryside. [...]
    Riyadh never stopped advocating a unified Syria, free from Assad and Iran. The Saudi ground operation would put pressure on Russia, which followed a scorched earth strategy ahead of the Geneva peace talks. The Russians would be forced to negotiate with the Saudis and Turks on forming a transitional government for all of Syria without Assad, or leave the country divided and let time heal its wounds.

    Quatre remarques sur ce pensum stratégique assez délirant :
    – d’abord cette convergence étonnante, et maintes fois relevée, entre les objectifs saoudiens et israéliens : ici une Syrie fragmentée selon des lignes confessionnelles et la confrontation avec l’Iran.
    Les néocons (comme dans le WaPo) sont d’ailleurs en ce moment vent debout contre Obama qu’ils exhortent à partir au sol en Syrie pour contrer les Russes.
    – puis le manque absolu de sérieux, entièrement assumé, dans la proposition d’envoi de troupes au sol contre Da’ich, qui ne sert qu’à faire chanter les pays alliés
    – ensuite le caractère tranquillement apocalyptique de l’ensemble
    – enfin, à aucun moment ce brave Kashoggi ne se demande quelles options il resterait si les USA et l’OTAN ne se laissaient pas entraîner.

    • Le Washington Post se fait l’avocat de l’option « buffer zone » à la Benghazi : https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-era-of-us-abdication-on-syria-must-end/2016/02/09/55226716-ce96-11e5-88cd-753e80cd29ad_story.html?postshare=6671455061

      Operating under a NATO umbrella, the United States could use its naval and air assets in the region to establish a no-fly zone from Aleppo to the Turkish border and make clear that it would prevent the continued bombardment of civilians and refugees by any party, including the Russians. It could use the no-fly zone to keep open the corridor with Turkey and use its assets to resupply the city and internally displaced people in the region with humanitarian assistance.

      En parcourant la fiche wikipedia des deux auteurs, M. Ignatieff et L. Wiseltier, on découvre que tous d’eux ont été partisans de l’invasion de l’Irak en 2003.

    • @souriyam Et toujours cette question insoluble : comment se fait-il que les médias de notre presse libre se mettent à publier, en même temps et spontanément, des opinions aussi identiques mais émanant de personnalités aussi « différentes » ?

    • Sinon, tout ça revient à nouveau à l’idée présentée chez Brookings l’année dernière : « Déconstruire la Syrie »
      Deconstructing Syria : A new strategy for America’s most hopeless war
      http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2015/06/30-deconstructing-syria-ohanlon

      What to do? Counterintuitively, at this stage, the only realistic path forward may be a plan that in effect deconstructs Syria. A comprehensive, national-level solution is too hard even to specify at this stage, much less effect. Instead, the international community should work to create pockets with more viable security and governance within Syria over time. With initial footholds in place, the strategy could develop further in a type of “ink-spot” campaign that eventually sought to join the various local initiatives into a broader and more integrated effort.

      Critiqué ici :
      http://seenthis.net/messages/397495

    • @nidal : merci pour le rappel de ce texte de la Brookings que j’ai dû lire (vu l’étoile sur le signalement) mais oublier. Ca fait donc un moment que des Américains s’imaginent une partition comme lot de consolation.
      Quelques éléments qui vont dans votre sens à verser dans le dossier Landis. Je viens de visionner cette vidéo du « Geneva Security Debate » de décembre 2015 où Landis professe la partition et la création d’un #Sunnistan.
      De 29’30 à 32’ il la justifie par le fait que, selon lui, l’armée syrienne ne pourra ni reprendre l’est à Da’ich, ni récupérer l’ensemble du territoire des « rebelles ». Il suggère de laisser la « rébellion » construire un Etat sunnite sur son territoire, déjà nettoyé du point de vue religieux, et de l’y aider. Et ensuite d’espérer que la meilleur gouvernance de ce Sunnistan attire à elle les autres sunnites et mène, in fine, à la réunification. Le tout sur le modèle des deux Allemagnes de la guerre froide.
      De 38’à 42’ : utilisation d’un autre argument. Les Russes et les Iraniens n’ont pas besoin de s’épuiser à reprendre tout le territoire syrien, comme le voudrait Assad. La côte et Damas suffiraient à leurs objectifs stratégiques. Les territoires de Da’ich à l’est ne leur sont pas utiles. Les USA peuvent donc s’arranger avec eux pour tracer de nouvelles frontières. On en déduit que ces territoires reviendraient à l’autre camp international et à la rébellion.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UWlF_HxEq3U

      PS : je ne maîtrise pas l’arabe, que l’on ne parlait pas à la maison (couple mixte). Ma connaissance s’arrête à moins que les rudiments, acquis en allant en vacances dans la famille, et à l’alphabet. Je suis bien incapable de comprendre un tel débat.

    • Merci @souriyam.

      Et comme toujours, tous ces gens font comme si une sorte de « réalité de la guerre » s’imposait finalement à eux, comme si la partition était une conséquence inattendue de la guerre.

      Ils nous ont déjà joué exactement la même partition (et continuent de le faire) pour l’Irak (dont la partition a pourtant été officiellement votée par le Sénat américain en 2007) :
      http://seenthis.net/messages/410133#message410138

      Si l’on fait remarquer que, vu comment ces guerres ont été me menées, on aurait voulu la partition sectaire dès le début (comme but de guerre, donc), on ne s’y serait pas pris autrement, relève de l’hérésie… En revanche, l’idée est omniprésente dans la région et est associée simultanément au rappel de vieux projets sionistes et/ou au principe colonial de « diviser pour mieux régner » (d’où l’intérêt de traiter les arabes de complotistes à tout bout de champ).

  • Article d’experts turcs en défense et en stratégie qui déclarent que le choix pour les autorités turques est soit de risquer d’être effacé de l’équation syrienne avec les groupes armés qu’elles ont soutenues, soit d’essayer de créer une zone refuge au nord de la Syrie pour ces mêmes groupes, malgré les grands risques que cela comporte du fait :
    – de l’absence probable de soutien de l’OTAN
    – de l’amélioration du dispositif militaire russe en Syrie depuis que le chasseur russe a été abattu par la chasse turque, et donc désormais de la difficulté à obtenir une supériorité aérienne
    – du risque de l’intensification du « front intérieur » (kurde), alors que des combats ont déjà lieu sur le territoire turc contre le PKK.
    En extrait, la conclusion :
    http://warontherocks.com/2016/02/prospects-for-a-turkish-incursion-into-syria

    In sum, Turkey seems to be caught between geostrategic necessities of launching a limited incursion and the twin risks of an uncontrollable escalation with Russia and the domestic terrorist threat. In the absence of robust support by its NATO allies, Ankara’s decision will depend on the volatile political-military calculus in Syria and the trajectory of the ongoing northern offensive.
    Without a doubt, any land incursion would significantly differ from the Turkish cross-border military operations into northern Iraq in the 1990s. In Syria, the Turkish air force would have to operate in contested airspace and the Turkish army would have to confront hybrid threats. The campaign would require planning to overcome the Russian A2/AD systems and hold ground defensively instead of repelling hostile groups for a limited time.
    Finally, predicting Russia’s possible moves will remain a great concern in Ankara. The Kremlin’s intentions for further escalation or even primitive revenge should be taken into consideration. Yet an over-cautious approach could end with the complete exclusion of Turkey from the Syrian chessboard. Ankara is stuck at the crossroads as it considers how to make its most critical political-military calculation in Syria yet.

  • Syrian rebels are losing Aleppo and perhaps also the war

    GAZIANTEP, Turkey — Syrian rebels battled for their survival in and around Syria’s northern city of Aleppo on Thursday after a blitz of Russian airstrikes helped government loyalists sever a vital supply route and sent a new surge of refugees fleeing toward the border with Turkey.


    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/syrian-rebels-are-losing-aleppo-and-perhaps-also-the-war/2016/02/04/94e10012-cb51-11e5-b9ab-26591104bb19_story.html?postshare=8571454760
    #Alep #guerre #Syrie #conflit

  • Angry Arab: Western media and lamentation about the "Arab spring"
    http://angryarab.blogspot.fr/2016/01/western-media-and-lamentation-about.html

    This is stunning about Western media commemoration of the “Arab spring”: they seem to engage in all sort of theorization and generalizations and explanations about “what went wrong” but oddly they leave out the most important element regarding the “Arab spring”: that Western governments and Israel proved that they will defend the Saudi-led Arab regional order with all the might of NATO.

  • En Afghanistan, une petite fille Hazara de 9 ans décapitée.

    Beheading of third-grade girl ‘was just the spark’ for Afghan minority group
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/beheading-of-third-grade-girl-was-just-the-spark-for-afghan-minority-group/2015/12/27/1d4b83d8-aa95-11e5-b596-113f59ee069a_story.html

    It was not the first time a group of Hazaras had been captured, and in some cases slain, by the Taliban or other predatory groups this year. Since the departure of NATO combat forces, Hazara leaders say, the growth of criminal gangs and aggressive Sunni Muslim insurgent factions have left members of their once-oppressed Shiite minority newly vulnerable to attack. In February, 31 Hazaras riding on two buses from Iran were abducted by Taliban fighters and six were killed; a dozen other assaults have occurred since then.

    But the gruesome beheading of the third-grader, whose battered image raced across Afghan social media, crystallized a sense of grievance among Hazaras and sparked the largest protest Kabul has seen since the overthrow of the Taliban, in 2001. On Nov. 10, chanting crowds carried the seven coffins across the capital, demanding that the government provide better security for Hazara regions and the highways linking them to Kabul and other cities.

    Encore une petite fille chiite qui devait certainement beaucoup humilier les sunnites… La #catastrophe, encore…

  • Israel hits Damascus, Russia looks away – Indian Punchline
    By M K Bhadrakuma – December 23, 2015
    http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2015/12/23/israel-hits-damascus-russia-looks-away

    The assassination of the Lebanese resistance’s war hero and Hezbollah leader Samir Kuntar in the city of Damascus on Sunday in what is believed to be an Israeli air raid took place right under the Russian nose. Yet Moscow didn’t sneeze. Ever read the famous line in Sherlock Holmes’ Silver Blaze hinging on the ‘curious incident of the dog in the night-time’ (which failed to bark)? The Russian ambivalence comes out in the Kremlin spokesman’s non-committal reaction.

    Israel no doubt pushed the envelope and seems to have got away with it. On Tuesday, in good measure, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu phoned President Vladimir Putin and reached an agreement “in particular to further coordinate anti-terrorist actions” in Syria, apart from discussing the development of cooperation between the two countries in various spheres”.

    To be sure, Moscow is not unaware of the bio profile of the slain Lebanese resistance leader. The RT, in fact, featured a column depicting fairly accurately the cold-blooded logic behind the Israeli decision to eliminate Kuntar (involving an operation on Damascus which is protected by Russia’s famous S-400 missiles and, doubtless would have been approved by ‘Bibi’ himself.) The columnist held out a vague warning to Israel, “Should a similar incident occur again no doubt Russian officials will intervene to stop further Israeli planes flying above an already overcrowded sky”.(RT).

    But, will the dog really bark the next time Israel comes to steal another Hezbollah race horse? The jury is out. The point is, Russia is finding itself between the rock and a hard place.

    Clearly, it is averse to confronting Israel, which may not be a NATO power but enjoys seamless American protection. Yet, Hezbollah is Russia’s crucial partner in Syria. Analysts generally agree that without the Hezbollah’s help, the Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad might have packed up. Moscow ought to be quietly pleased with the stellar role Hezbollah militia is performing on the ground in Syria currently in military operations such as the one around Aleppo.

    But then, Russia is also not willing to stick out its neck to protect Hezbollah, although the Israeli ploy to provoke it and distract it from its Syrian campaign against the Islamic State and other extremist groups cannot be in Moscow’s interests either. Truly, the Syrian conflict is riddled with contradictions and what we are witnessing here is one of the major contradictions in the Russian strategy.

    Russia would know that Israel has supported al-Qaeda affiliates in Syria fighting the Syrian regime. But, unlike with Turkey, Moscow prefers to deal with Israel wearing velvet gloves. For one thing, there are umbilical cords that tie the Russian and Israeli political elites, and, besides, on a deeper plane, Russia and Israel are on the same page vis-a-vis ‘Islamic terrorism’. (...)

    #Samir_Kuntar
    #Hezbollah #Russie #Israël #Syrie

  • Meet the Sultan of Civil War
    24.12.2015 | Pepe Escobar
    http://sputniknews.com/columnists/20151224/1032265320/erdogan-sultan-civil-war.html

    (...) So the question now hinges on how close — politically and militarily – will be Moscow’s support for the YPG-PKK.

    Moscow does not exactly favors the birth of a Kurdistan as advocated by Israel and US neocons. The US-Israel axis privileges some very specific Kurds; the vastly corrupt Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in northern Iraq, which also happen to entertain close relations with Ankara (the oil export angle). No one knows how a Syrian Kurdistan controlled by the YPG-PKK would fit into an already complex equation.

    Ankara’s red line though is much easier to detect: any Kurdistan qualifies as a red line.

    Waiting for Pipelineistan

    Erdogan, in desperation, is even flirting with Israel again. In this case, further Sultan burning may also be on the cards.

    Israel’s long game is an energy game: make sure it has access to non-stop, cheap Kurdish – as in stolen from Baghdad — oil flowing through the Kirkuk-Haifa pipeline. And in the long run Tel Aviv would love to bypass Ceyhan and replace it with Haifa as the top oil export terminal in the Eastern Mediterranean.

    Israel has easily bribed the noxious KRG mafia – and slimy Israeli operators have been involved for years in buying totally undocumented Kurdish oil, which may have been mixed along the way with stolen Iraqi/Syrian Daesh oil. Everyone familiar with the KRG knows how the Israelis on the ground are fronted by US and UK oil companies. The bottom line is startling: bribed-to-death Iraqi Kurds are selling discounted oil virtually stolen from Baghdad — which developed the wells and built the pipelines — to a country Iraq refuses to do business with.

    The “Kurdistan” Israel and US neocons really want, much more than a northern Syrian entity, is a northern Iraq colony, a vassal enclave run by the Barzani mob. That would imply no less than a war between Baghdad (supported by Tehran) and the KRG (supported by Washington and Tel Aviv). As apocalyptic scenarios go, this one at least is on hold.

    Moscow, for the moment, prefers to focus on stripping Ankara naked in those convoluted Syrian peace negotiations, which, for all practical purposes, boil down to a US-Russia game.

    And as much as Erdogan remains a Washington vassal and an “adversary” of Israel only in posture, now he cannot even be sure where the Obama administration stands.

    Only a few weeks ago Obama requested him to deploy “30,000 (troops) to seal the border on the Turkish side”. At the time, Team Obama was hopeful that Erdogan’s troops would be able to clear and hold an area 98 km long and 30 km deep inside Syrian territory that would harbor Erdogan’s famous “safe zone”. Ankara would need just a mere pretext to invade — and a little American air cover.

    After the downing of the Su-24 and Russia’s deployment of the S-400s, this plan is now six feet under.

    From the point of view of the myriad “Assad must go” front, the name of the game now in Syria is “hold on to what you’ve got”. Erdogan, as desperate as he may be, would have to accept his Jihadi Highway to retreat back across the Turkish border, and wait for the next window of wreaking havoc opportunity (which Russia will never open.)

    Yet the long game that really matters, for all players involved, is predictably Pipelineistan. Who will control a great deal of the oil and gas across “Syraq”, including the non-exploited wealth in the Kurdish areas; to where will it all flow; who sells it; and for what price.

    It’s a waiting game that the Sultan plans to fill with – what else – an anti-Kurdish civil war.

    • Empire of Chaos preparing for more fireworks in 2016
      Pepe Escobar | Edited time: 25 Dec, 2015
      https://www.rt.com/op-edge/326965-2016-us-syria-turkey

      (...) Beijing and Moscow clearly identify provocation after provocation, coupled with relentless demonization. But they won’t be trapped, as they’re both playing a very long game.

      Russian President Vladimir Putin diplomatically insists on treating the West as “partners”. But he knows, and those in the know in China also know, these are not really “partners”. Not after NATO’s 78-day bombing of Belgrade in 1999. Not after the purposeful bombing of the Chinese Embassy. Not after non-stop NATO expansionism. Not after a second Kosovo in the form of an illegal coup in Kiev. Not after the crashing of the oil price by Gulf petrodollar US clients. Not after the Wall Street-engineered crashing of the ruble. Not after US and EU sanctions. Not after the smashing of Chinese A shares by US proxies on Wall Street. Not after non-stop saber rattling in the South China Sea. Not after the shooting down of the Su-24.
      It’s only a thread away

      A quick rewind to the run-up towards the downing of the Su-24 is enlightening. Obama met Putin. Immediately afterwards Putin met Khamenei. Sultan Erdogan had to be alarmed; a serious Russian-Iranian alliance was graphically announced in Teheran. That was only a day before the downing of the Su-24. (...)

  • A lire absolument, le dernier article de « Sy » Hersh dans la London Review of Books, « Military to military » :
    http://www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n01/seymour-m-hersh/military-to-military
    Je tente un long résumé avec citations, mais ce serait plutôt à lire in extenso.

    A partir de l’été 2013, des membres haut placés dans l’appareil militaire américain (notamment le chef de la DIA M. Flynn et le chef d’état-major M. Dempsey) commencent à s’alarmer des conséquences du programme de la CIA d’armement des « rebelles syriens » en collaboration avec les pétromonarchies et la Turquie. Selon leurs informations il renforcerait les groupes les plus radicaux (parmi lesquels al-Nusra et Da’ich) :

    The military’s resistance dates back to the summer of 2013, when a highly classified assessment, put together by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) and the Joint Chiefs of Staff, then led by General Martin Dempsey, forecast that the fall of the Assad regime would lead to chaos and, potentially, to Syria’s takeover by jihadi extremists, much as was then happening in Libya. A former senior adviser to the Joint Chiefs told me that the document was an ‘all-source’ appraisal, drawing on information from signals, satellite and human intelligence, and took a dim view of the Obama administration’s insistence on continuing to finance and arm the so-called moderate rebel groups. By then, the CIA had been conspiring for more than a year with allies in the UK, Saudi Arabia and Qatar to ship guns and goods – to be used for the overthrow of Assad – from Libya, via Turkey, into Syria. The new intelligence estimate singled out Turkey as a major impediment to Obama’s Syria policy. The document showed, the adviser said, ‘that what was started as a covert US programme to arm and support the moderate rebels fighting Assad had been co-opted by Turkey, and had morphed into an across-the-board technical, arms and logistical programme for all of the opposition, including Jabhat al-Nusra and Islamic State. The so-called moderates had evaporated and the Free Syrian Army was a rump group stationed at an airbase in Turkey.’ The assessment was bleak: there was no viable ‘moderate’ opposition to Assad, and the US was arming extremists.

    Ces militaires américains, persuadés que dans ces conditions la chute d’Assad mènerait au chaos, vont tenter de convaincre l’administration Obama de changer de politique en Syrie ; mais en vain.

    Flynn told me. ‘We understood Isis’s long-term strategy and its campaign plans, and we also discussed the fact that Turkey was looking the other way when it came to the growth of the Islamic State inside Syria.’ The DIA’s reporting, he said, ‘got enormous pushback’ from the Obama administration. ‘I felt that they did not want to hear the truth.’
    ‘Our policy of arming the opposition to Assad was unsuccessful and actually having a negative impact,’ the former JCS adviser said. ‘The Joint Chiefs believed that Assad should not be replaced by fundamentalists. The administration’s policy was contradictory. They wanted Assad to go but the opposition was dominated by extremists. So who was going to replace him? To say Assad’s got to go is fine, but if you follow that through – therefore anyone is better. It’s the “anybody else is better” issue that the JCS had with Obama’s policy.’ The Joint Chiefs felt that a direct challenge to Obama’s policy would have ‘had a zero chance of success’.

    Ils vont alors tenter de contre-balancer celle-ci, sans rentrer en franche dissidence vis à vis de Washington, en faisant parvenir du renseignement par des canaux indirects (des militaires allemands, israéliens et russes) à Damas :

    So in the autumn of 2013 they decided to take steps against the extremists without going through political channels, by providing US intelligence to the militaries of other nations, on the understanding that it would be passed on to the Syrian army and used against the common enemy, Jabhat al-Nusra and Islamic State.
    Germany, Israel and Russia were in contact with the Syrian army, and able to exercise some influence over Assad’s decisions – it was through them that US intelligence would be shared. Each had its reasons for co-operating with Assad: Germany feared what might happen among its own population of six million Muslims if Islamic State expanded; Israel was concerned with border security; Russia had an alliance of very long standing with Syria, and was worried by the threat to its only naval base on the Mediterranean, at Tartus. ‘We weren’t intent on deviating from Obama’s stated policies,’ the adviser said. ‘But sharing our assessments via the military-to-military relationships with other countries could prove productive.

    L’article se poursuit avec un paragraphe rappelant l’ambition partagée par l’administration G.W. Bush et Obama de renverser Assad depuis au moins 2003, avec les différentes actions entreprises, malgré une coopération sécuritaire de Damas appréciée par les cercles militaires et de renseignement américains (choses assez bien connues).
    Ensuite Hersh balance une sacrée révélation : à partir de l’automne 2013, dans un contexte où l’effort financier turco-qataro-saoudien augmente et où l’ensemble de l’opération de déstabilisation d’Assad semble échapper aux Américains, ces militaires « dissidents » vont jouer un coup : en remplaçant la ligne d’approvisionnement principale libyenne des rebelles et des jihadistes en Syrie, par une ligne venue de Turquie, ils vont réussir à abaisser la qualité de l’armement obtenu par ceux-ci :

    The CIA was approached by a representative from the Joint Chiefs with a suggestion: there were far less costly weapons available in Turkish arsenals that could reach the Syrian rebels within days, and without a boat ride.’ But it wasn’t only the CIA that benefited. ‘We worked with Turks we trusted who were not loyal to Erdoğan,’ the adviser said, ‘and got them to ship the jihadists in Syria all the obsolete weapons in the arsenal, including M1 carbines that hadn’t been seen since the Korean War and lots of Soviet arms. It was a message Assad could understand: “We have the power to diminish a presidential policy in its tracks.”’
    The flow of US intelligence to the Syrian army, and the downgrading of the quality of the arms being supplied to the rebels, came at a critical juncture.

    Par la suite en 2014, Brennan (directeur de la CIA) tente de reprendre la main dans ce maelström. Il réunit les chefs du renseignement des Etats « arabes sunnites » et leur demande de ne soutenir que l’opposition modérée. Il obtient un oui poli mais non suivi d’effet, tandis que la ligne générale de l’administration Obama reste la même :

    Brennan’s message was ignored by the Saudis, the adviser said, who ‘went back home and increased their efforts with the extremists and asked us for more technical support. And we say OK, and so it turns out that we end up reinforcing the extremists.’

    Et reste le problème des Turcs, moins faciles à manipuler, qui soutiennent à la fois al-Nusra et Da’ich :

    But the Saudis were far from the only problem: American intelligence had accumulated intercept and human intelligence demonstrating that the Erdoğan government had been supporting Jabhat al-Nusra for years, and was now doing the same for Islamic State. ‘We can handle the Saudis,’ the adviser said. ‘We can handle the Muslim Brotherhood. You can argue that the whole balance in the Middle East is based on a form of mutually assured destruction between Israel and the rest of the Middle East, and Turkey can disrupt the balance – which is Erdoğan’s dream. We told him we wanted him to shut down the pipeline of foreign jihadists flowing into Turkey. But he is dreaming big – of restoring the Ottoman Empire – and he did not realise the extent to which he could be successful in this.’

    Suit un long exposé, d’une part sur les relations américano-russes, que certains du côté de ces « dissidents » perçoivent comme trop marquées du côté de Washington par une mentalité anti-russe anachronique venue de la guerre froide, et sur les raisons de la peur de la Russie du phénomène jihadiste, amplifiée depuis la mort de Kadhafi, d’autre part. Evoqué aussi le traitement médiatique hostile aux USA à l’intervention russe en Syrie.
    Reprise du récit. Après l’attentat de novembre dernier en France et le bombardier russe abattu par la chasse turque, Hollande tente d’amener Obama à un rapprochement avec la Russie mais sans succès, la ligne d’Obama restant départ d’Assad, opposition à l’intervention russe en Syrie, soutien à la Turquie, et maintien de l’idée d’une réelle opposiotn modérée :

    The Paris attacks on 13 November that killed 130 people did not change the White House’s public stance, although many European leaders, including François Hollande, advocated greater co-operation with Russia and agreed to co-ordinate more closely with its air force; there was also talk of the need to be more flexible about the timing of Assad’s exit from power. On 24 November, Hollande flew to Washington to discuss how France and the US could collaborate more closely in the fight against Islamic State. At a joint press conference at the White House, Obama said he and Hollande had agreed that ‘Russia’s strikes against the moderate opposition only bolster the Assad regime, whose brutality has helped to fuel the rise’ of IS. Hollande didn’t go that far but he said that the diplomatic process in Vienna would ‘lead to Bashar al-Assad’s departure … a government of unity is required.’ The press conference failed to deal with the far more urgent impasse between the two men on the matter of Erdoğan. Obama defended Turkey’s right to defend its borders; Hollande said it was ‘a matter of urgency’ for Turkey to take action against terrorists. The JCS adviser told me that one of Hollande’s main goals in flying to Washington had been to try to persuade Obama to join the EU in a mutual declaration of war against Islamic State. Obama said no. The Europeans had pointedly not gone to Nato, to which Turkey belongs, for such a declaration. ‘Turkey is the problem,’ the JCS adviser said.

    Hersh s’appuie ensuite sur l’ambassadeur syrien en Chine pour évoquer la cas de la Chine qui soutient aussi Assad. L’occasion de mentionner le Parti islamique du Turkestan Oriental, allié d’al-Qaïda et soutenu par les services turcs, et qui offre à des combattants notamment Ouïghours l’occasion de mener le jihad en Syrie avant peut-être de retourner le pratiquer dans le Xinjiang ce qui inquiète Pékin :

    Moustapha also brought up China, an ally of Assad that has allegedly committed more than $30 billion to postwar reconstruction in Syria. China, too, is worried about Islamic State. ‘China regards the Syrian crisis from three perspectives,’ he said: international law and legitimacy; global strategic positioning; and the activities of jihadist Uighurs, from Xinjiang province in China’s far west. Xinjiang borders eight nations – Mongolia, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India – and, in China’s view, serves as a funnel for terrorism around the world and within China. Many Uighur fighters now in Syria are known to be members of the East Turkestan Islamic Movement – an often violent separatist organisation that seeks to establish an Islamist Uighur state in Xinjiang. ‘The fact that they have been aided by Turkish intelligence to move from China into Syria through Turkey has caused a tremendous amount of tension between the Chinese and Turkish intelligence,’ Moustapha said. ‘China is concerned that the Turkish role of supporting the Uighur fighters in Syria may be extended in the future to support Turkey’s agenda in Xinjiang.

    L’article se finit sur le sort de ces « dissidents ». Flynn se fera virer en 2014, tandis que Dempsey et les autres au sein de l’état-major, qui ont été moins insistants, resteront en poste.

    General Dempsey and his colleagues on the Joint Chiefs of Staff kept their dissent out of bureaucratic channels, and survived in office. General Michael Flynn did not. ‘Flynn incurred the wrath of the White House by insisting on telling the truth about Syria,’ said Patrick Lang, a retired army colonel who served for nearly a decade as the chief Middle East civilian intelligence officer for the DIA.

    Dempsey finira par partir en retraite en 2015, mettant fin à cette « dissidence douce » au sein du Pentagone :

    The military’s indirect pathway to Assad disappeared with Dempsey’s retirement in September. His replacement as chairman of the Joint Chiefs, General Joseph Dunford, testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee in July, two months before assuming office. ‘If you want to talk about a nation that could pose an existential threat to the United States, I’d have to point to Russia,’ Dunford said.

    Conclusion :

    Obama now has a more compliant Pentagon. There will be no more indirect challenges from the military leadership to his policy of disdain for Assad and support for Erdoğan. Dempsey and his associates remain mystified by Obama’s continued public defence of Erdoğan, given the American intelligence community’s strong case against him – and the evidence that Obama, in private, accepts that case. ‘We know what you’re doing with the radicals in Syria,’ the president told Erdoğan’s intelligence chief at a tense meeting at the White House (as I reported in the LRB of 17 April 2014). The Joint Chiefs and the DIA were constantly telling Washington’s leadership of the jihadist threat in Syria, and of Turkey’s support for it. The message was never listened to. Why not?

  • Turkey’s Dangerous Game
    http://www.unz.com/article/turkeys-dangerous-game

    Turkey shot down the Russian plane because Moscow was effective in the fight against the Syrian insurgency, to include ISIS, enabling the Syrian army to recover lost territory. As Turkey is nominally a U.S. ally in combatting ISIS going after another de facto ally would seem to be a strange choice, but it ignores the fact that Ankara has been duplicitous from the beginning in terms of its real objectives. Turkey has been reckless in allowing jihadists to travel through it both coming from Europe and returning from the battlefields of Syria. Turkey’s major strategic goals in the Syrian civil war have everything to do with striking the Kurds and removing Bashar al-Assad from power. Erdogan has no interest at all in defeating ISIS, quite the contrary.

    Ankara has studiously avoided attacking ISIS because its true objective is to prevent the formation of any Kurdish State, which would in part be on a considerable piece of Turkish territory if it were fully realized. The animus being directed against Syrian President Bashar al Assad is due to the fact that Ankara believes him to be complicit in supporting anti-Turkish Kurdish rebels along the border. That means the Erdogan is using the war against ISIS as a cover for his own agenda, which is bombing the Kurds and eliminating the Syrian government as a potential supporter of dissident Turkish Kurds who might be using Syrian territory as a safe haven.

    Indeed, one might reasonably go a step farther to assert that Turkey has been an ally of ISIS, supporting from the beginning radical Sunni groups that eventually came together to form the terrorist organization. When I was last in Istanbul in July 2014, ISIS supporters were seen in various Istanbul neighborhoods collecting money to support their cause. There have since that time been frequent reports of ISIS militants moving back and forth across the Syria-Turkish border without any interference from Ankara. It has been suggested that wounded militants were routinely treated in Turkish hospitals and allowed to recuperate and rearm inside Turkey. There have also been widely observed movements of weapons into Syria to arm ISIS organized by Erdogan’s government. Recently two well-known Turkish journalists were arrested for reporting on the arms movements. They face years in prison if convicted, which will surely be the case.

    [...]

    More recently there have been a number of attacks inside Turkey that have been attributed to ISIS but which just as plausibly might be credited to the Turkish intelligence service MIT. One bombing in Ankara in October, attributed alternatively to ISIS and to Kurds, killed 102 and was particularly suspicious coming as it did shortly before elections. The various attacks were exploited to increase government pressure on the Kurdish minority and to weaken the opposition People’s Democratic Party (HDP), which is largely Kurdish. The so-called ISIS attacks also were used to create the impression to the U.S. and NATO allies that Turkey was actually in the fight against the Islamic State even though it really was not. The White House, frustrated by the Turkish inaction, was not fooled by the charade but it felt that it was in no position to contradict Erdogan.

    #Turquie #PKK #Syrie #Kurdes

  • US approves sale of ’smart bomb’ kits to Turkey
    http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2015/Dec-08/326502-us-approves-sale-of-smart-bomb-kits-to-turkey.ashx

    The U.S. State Department has approved the sale of precision bomb kits valued at $70 million to Turkey, a member of NATO and a key part of the U.S.-led coalition fighting Islamic State militants in Syria, the Pentagon said Thursday.

    Lawmakers have 15 days to block the sale, although such action is rare. Once it has cleared that hurdle, Turkey and the U.S. government can negotiate the actual sale.

    The Defense Security Cooperation Agency, which oversees foreign arms sales, told lawmakers that the government of Turkey had asked to buy 1,000 Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) tail kits that are used to turn unguided bombs into all-weather smart munitions using GPS guidance systems.

    “It is vital to the U.S. national interest to assist our NATO ally in developing and maintaining a strong and ready self-defense capability,” the agency said in a notice to lawmakers that was posted on its website on Thursday.

    It said the proposed sale would enhance the Turkish Air Force’s ability to defend its own territory and work together with NATO allies.

  • La Turquie refuse pour l’instant de retirer ses troupes du nord de l’Irak, malgré les menaces de Baghdad d’en référer au CS de l’ONU, arguant désormais qu’il s’agit seulement de troupes visant à protéger les équipes turques déjà présentes qui entraînent des peshmergas irakiens (Barzani) et des combattants irakiens contre Da’ich :
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-turkey-idUSKBN0TQ0SS20151207#5hSBErtuG7iqOX3X.97

    “It is our duty to provide security for our soldiers providing training there,” Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said in an interview on Turkey’s Kanal 24 television.
    “Everybody is present in Iraq ... The goal of all of them is clear. Train-and-equip advisory support is being provided. Our presence there is not a secret,” he added.
    Abadi has called the Turkish deployment a violation of Iraqi sovereignty. Government spokesman Saad al-Hadithi said Iraq was still waiting for Turkey to respond officially."In case we have not received any positive signs before the deadline we set for the Turkish side, then we maintain our legal right to file a complaint to the Security Council to stop this serious violation to Iraqi sovereignty," he said.

    On appréciera au passage la position acrobatique des Américains qui prétendent soumettre la légitimité de leurs opérations militaires en Irak au principe du respect de la souveraineté de Bagdad, mais pas à celle de Damas en Syrie, le tout sans condamner clairement, pour l’instant, le maintien de ces troupes turques en Irak :

    Brett McGurk, U.S. President Barack Obama’s envoy to the global coalition to counter Islamic State, said on Twitter that Washington did not support missions in Iraq without permission of Baghdad, which he said also applied to U.S. missions there.

    D’autant que, selon le journal Hurriyet, les Américains via ce Brett Mc Gurk ont été mis au courant par Ankara de ce mouvement de troupes turques - mais pas Baghdad ! :
    http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-base-in-iraq-targets-mosuls-liberation-from-isil.aspx?pag

    Turkish sources say the reinforcement plans were discussed in detail with Brett McGurk, U.S. President Barack Obama’s counter-ISIL fight coordinator, during his latest visit to Ankara on Nov. 5-6. “The Americans are telling the truth,” one high-rank source said. “This is not a U.S.-led coalition operation, but we are informing them about every single detail. This is not a secret operation.”

    Mais un détail encore plus troublant que révèle la dépêche Reuters est que les troupes irakiennes que les Turcs entraînent sont dirigées par l’ex gouverneur (jusqu’en mai 2015) de la province de Ninive, Atheel al-Nujaïfi, qui entretient des « liens étroits avec la Turquie » et qui était en poste au moment de la chute de Mossoul en 2014 devant les troupes de Da’ich, pourtant numériquement inférieures :

    The camp occupied by the Turkish troops is being used by a force called Hashid Watani, or national mobilization, made up of mainly Sunni Arab former Iraqi police and volunteers from Mosul.
    It is seen as a counterweight to Shi’ite militias that have grown in clout elsewhere in Iraq with Iranian backing, and was formed by former Nineveh governor Atheel al-Nujaifi, who has close relations with Turkey. A small number of Turkish trainers were already there before the latest deployment.

    Sur Atheel al Nujaifi : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atheel_al-Nujaifi

    Du coup on peut suspecter qu’Ankara, qui voit sa possibilité de peser sur le destin de la Syrie s’amenuiser avec les avancées du YPG et le soutien russo-iranien au régime syrien, tente de prendre pied en Irak en s’appuyant sur des obligés arabes irakiens et ses alliés les peshmergas de Barzani :

    Political analysts saw last week’s deployment in northern Iraq by Turkey, which has the second biggest army in NATO, as a bid to assert its influence in the face of increased Russian and Iranian involvement in Syria and Iraq.
    “Turkey seems to be angling to prove to the Russians and Iranians that they will not be allowed to have either the Syrian or Iraqi war theaters only to themselves,” said Aydin Selcen, former consul general of Turkey in Erbil, the capital of Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region.

    Et :

    The government of Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region, whose security forces control the area where the Turks are deployed, backed up Ankara’s explanation: Thursday’s deployment was intended to expand the capacity of the training base, said Safeen Dizayee, Kurdish government spokesman.
    “The increase of personnel requires some protection.”
    Although Turkey is strongly suspicious of Kurds in Syria, it has good relations with Iraq’s Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani.
    “Turkey, working through the Nujaifis and the Barzanis, is trying to establish its own sphere of influence in northern Iraq,” said Aaron Stein, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

    Moon of alabama a consacré un article intéressant à cette question en explorant l’hypothèse de raisons liées à la géopolitique de l’énergie (tenter d’imposer un deal eau du Tigre vs gazoduc Qatar-Irak-Turquie à Bagdad) : http://www.moonofalabama.org/2015/12/is-erdogans-mosul-escapade-blackmail-for-a-new-qatar-turkey-pipeline-
    Cette même hypothèse est développée par le journaliste d’al-Rai (journal koweïti) sur son blog en anglais ici : https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/2015/12/08/turkish-forces-in-iraq-to-impose-the-gas-versus-the-water
    ou l’article en arabe sur le site d’al Raï là : http://www.alraimedia.com/ar/article/special-reports/2015/12/08/641116/nr/iran