Yet, the current strife between Hamas and Fatah is not directly linked to the 2007 coup. While Hamas leaders do not deny that the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades forcefully expelled the security forces and took over the official national institutions in Gaza, the issue of the coup apparently ended the day the Palestinian unity government was formed, with both sides expressing their desire to bury the hatchet and declaring that they had turned over a new leaf. According to the reconciliation agreement, following which the unity government was formed in June 2014, a joint committee was supposed to prepare the PA for elections within six months — a period that ended in early 2015.
In recent weeks, and especially after Abbas’ call for outside intervention in Gaza, Hamas has concluded that the only explanation is that Abbas is looking for any excuse to avoid elections in the PA. Sami Abu Zuhri, the movement’s spokesman in Gaza, said April 2, “Abbas was chosen in an agreement between the Palestinian factions to be the chairman for a specified period of time. His term is over, and he would do well to know his limitations.”
Having been elected to the position in democratic elections after the passing of former Palestine Liberation Organization chairman Yasser Arafat in 2004, Abbas has been in office for more than 10 years. Holding elections now, amid a diplomatic campaign for international recognition of a Palestinian state, could prove hard for him for a number of reasons.
Even if he were to win the elections in a landslide, just holding such elections would officially make Hamas part and parcel of the Palestinian government. In that case, not only would Abbas have to take into account the demands by Hamas members to participate in governing and determining foreign policy, but it might also drive away potential supporters of the UN move he has been carefully orchestrating for a very long time.
Abbas is also apprehensive of another enemy lurking in the wings, waiting impatiently for an opportunity to get back in the ring. Former Fatah senior official Mohammed Dahlan, the president’s nemesis, has been rallying more and more supporters in the West Bank and Gaza. Having himself started a historic reconciliation process with Hamas, Dahlan has no intention of sitting idly by if elections are held, potentially posing a significant threat to Abbas’ re-election. Over the past year, Dahlan has raised tens of millions of dollars from Gulf states. This money, which was intended to alleviate the plight of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, has elevated him to savior status.
Dahlan has been carefully planning his return to center stage. Having recently met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, he has reprogrammed his trajectory to return to the Fatah movement from which he was ousted on the orders of Abbas. It remains unclear whether at this stage it will be enough to garner support that will seriously jeopardize the president’s standing. However, when Dahlan openly said in a March 2 interview with Newsweek that he was going to run against Abbas, saying, “If there’s an election tomorrow, I’ll go back,” he left Abbas with no room to take unnecessary risks.
While the Palestinians are preparing for their UN moves and Abbas and other senior PA officials threaten to appeal to the International Criminal Court, the stalemate in the reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas puts the Palestinian president in a bind. In the absence of elections, his legal status as PA president is questionable, but he is concerned that Hamas might once again exploit the democratic process it trampled violently eight years ago. He does not have a lot of time to vacillate.
As someone wishing to champion historic moves in the coming year, he will have to call the shots on a number of key issues relating to the character of the Palestinian state that he wants to establish with the support of the UN. He will have to decide whether the future state will be democratic, whether it will include the Gaza Strip and whether Hamas will be part of the official government.
