person:mikati

Confidences Liban
▻http://magazine.com.lb/index.php/fr/confidences/confidences-liban-?issue_id=215

Les Ikhwan avec Mikati
Alors que les séances du dialogue entre le Moustaqbal et le Hezbollah se poursuivent, la relation de la confrérie des Ikhwan libanais avec les deux partis se détériore. Ainsi, les canaux d’échange entre la Jamaa islamia et le plus grand parti chiite libanais sont quasi bloqués, de même avec le mouvement des Ikhwan palestiniens. La tension est montée d’un cran, selon des sources fiables, après l’assassinat de Samir Kantar par Israël, assassinat que les Ikhwan se sont abstenus de condamner. Sur les réseaux sociaux, certains commentaires semblaient brocarder l’agression, comme celui de la fille du Palestinien radical, Khaled Mechaal, qui réside au Qatar. Sur un autre plan, la discorde entre les Ikhwan et le Moustaqbal a atteint un niveau tel que le mouvement intégriste nie toute alliance passée ou future avec le parti de Saad Hariri. Les Ikhwan vont même jusqu’à provoquer ce dernier en organisant une série de dialogues politiques avec le président Najib Mikati. Des sources islamiques font allusion au rôle des services de renseignements turcs dans le rapprochement Mikati-Ikhwan.

Plusieurs articles suggèrent que la situation militaire en Syrie tourne en faveur du régime depuis une dizaine de jours. Ça ne veut pas dire que c’est vrai, mais c’est une information qui circule, et qui influe sur beaucoup de choses :
– les participations étrangères (Qatar, États-Unis, Europe…) sont certainement influencées par ces considérations (articles concernant la dernière réunion de la Ligue arabe et les critiques fuitées à l’encontre du Qatar ; soudain attentisme des Français ; récente campagne médiatique étatsunienne contre les rebelles « extrémistes »…) ;
– au Liban, la situation politique fluctue certainement en fonction de ce que chaque parti pense savoir du terrain syrien (après la démission de Mikati, le 14 pensait avoir la haute main ; désormais des articles suggèrent que Joumblatt est moins « radical » que prévu, et que le Hezbollah se sent plus en situation de force),
– possibles tensions au Liban, le recul sur le terrain ramenant potentiellement des combattants vers la frontière, et risque de provoquer encore plus l’exaspération et la radicalisation (actuellement, bombardements revendiqués de villages libanais par les rebelles, ce qui est nouveau),
– si l’armée libanaise accentue son contrôle autour d’Ersal, elle risque d’être encore plus la cible d’attaques et de manœuvres de délégitimation par les partis soutenant les rebelles syriens.

Exemple aujourd’hui dans le Akhbar : Assad says Qusayr main battleground : Lebanese official
▻http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/assad-says-quseir-main-battleground-lebanese-official

Syria’s “main battle” at present is raging in the Qusayr area, touching Lebanon’s northeastern border, President Bashar al-Assad reportedly told Lebanese politicians this weekend.

Speaking to a delegation of Lebanese backers of his government, Assad said the army was determined to succeed in the area “at any cost,” according to Abdel Rahim Mrad, former Lebanese defense minister who spoke to AFP after the meeting in Damascus.

“The main battle is taking place in Qusayr,” he quoted Assad as saying.

“We want to finish it at any cost and we want to do the same in Idlib,” a province on the Turkish border in the northwest which is a major rebel stronghold.

Ainsi qu’un second article : Syrian Army Surrounds Strategic Town of Qusayr
▻http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/syrian-army-surrounds-strategic-town-qusayr

In the course of two days, the Syrian army took over most of the territory surrounding the strategic town of Qusayr, cutting off the opposition’s supply lines from nearby Lebanon.

The Syrian army continued to make advances against opposition forces, this time in the strategic area of Rif Qusayr along both banks of the Assi River near the border with Lebanon.

Qusayr has played a key role in the conflict due to its proximity to the Lebanese border, where weapons, supplies, and fighters are smuggled through the rugged hills near the Lebanese town of Ersal.

Je vois que Tammam Salaam s’écrit aussi de cette façon dans les #cablegate, j’en ai donc trois de plus à signaler :

08BEIRUT1288 - 3 septembre 2008
LEBANON : WITH DAS HALE, VETERAN SUNNI FIGURE
STRESSES NEED FOR MORE ASSISTANCE TO THE ARMY
▻http://wikileaks.org/cable/2008/09/08BEIRUT1288.html

In his August 30 meeting with visiting NEA DAS David Hale, Minister of Culture and respected leader of the Sunni community Tammam Salaam stressed the need for progress in the Israeli/Palestinian peace process to defuse extremism in the region. Praising Hizballah’s quick admission of culpability in the August 28 attack on a Lebanese Army helicopter, Salaam opined that a “security by consensus” understanding was emerging between Hizballah and the government. Salaam stressed the need for more powerful USG assistance to the Lebanese Armed Forces, warned about continuing sectarian tension and rising extremism, as demonstrated in Tripoli, and expressed moderate praise for Lebanon’s top three leaders, President Sleiman, PM Siniora, and Speaker Berri. End summary.

(La citation qu’en fait Angry Arab est trop courte. Remise dans son contexte, elle ne me semble pas particulièrement scandaleuse.)

La même information reprise le lendemain :
08BEIRUT1296 - 4 septembre 2008
SUBJECT : LEBANON : LAF HELICOPTER ATTACK A HIZBALLAH ERROR ?

Minister of Culture Tammam Salaam told DAS Hale August 30, one day after the cabinet named Kahwagi as the new LAF Commander, that the appointment should give the impression that security is under control. Instead, the helicopter incident represented a step backwards. Salaam did not believe Hizballah would be held accountable for the incident, but credited Hizballah for not being “arrogant” in its public statements on the incident. Salaam added that what was evolving between Hizballah and the GOL was a “security by consensus” understanding.

Et quelques considérations de politique politicienne par Miqati :
09BEIRUT443 - 16 avril 2009
LEBANON : MIKATI CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT ELECTORAL OUTCOME, BUT SAYS RACE WILL BE CLOSE

Mikati observed that the process of state-building was difficult. He said an April 13 attack on a Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) patrol in the Bekaa valley proved that “curing” one institution was not enough, if the others were still “sick,” such as the Justice Ministry or the Internal Security Forces (the police). He called President Sleiman “wise,” and credited him for acting as an arbitrator between Lebanon’s political factions. If the electoral outcome produced a moderate majority, including a group of eight to ten independents, then Sleiman would be strengthened, he theorized. Among the independents, Mikati believed that he, current Minister of Culture Tammam Salaam (Sunni), and presidential advisor Nazem Khoury (Christian) were among those who could bring about this change.

Lebanon: Tammam Salam’s Path to Prime Minister
▻http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/lebanon-tammam-salam%E2%80%99s-path-prime-minister

How did Lebanon and Saudi Arabia’s power brokers decide on Tammam Salam as the country’s next prime minister? Al-Akhbar explains how former prime minister Mikati’s calculations failed him and paved the way for Salam’s rise.

When former prime minister Fouad Siniora delivered his speech to the massive crowds at the funeral of Wissam al-Hassan, the assassinated intelligence chief, standing next to him was none other than Tammam Salam.

Last night, Siniora and Salam were side-by-side once again, this time at Saad Hariri’s downtown mansion. The Arab and international signal had been given to begin negotiations on a new prime minister. With that, MP Salam is now the next prime minister in waiting.

Ibrahim al-Amin revient aujourd’hui sur les très lourdes ingérences étrangères dans la démission de Mikati et la déstabilisation du Liban. Où l’on apprend que François Hollande croit pouvoir se mêler personnellement des nominations à la tête des services de sécurité libanais :
▻http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/mikatis-resignation-end-dissociation

Regarding the domestic issues that prompted the move, which are inextricable from developments in Syria, a number of things can be noted.

One is the growing hold of the US and certain European and Arab governments over a great many Lebanese politicians, including Suleiman, Mikati, and Walid Jumblatt.

These countries wanted to block the adoption of a new election law that would deny the March 14 coalition a parliamentary majority and jeopardize the “balance-tipping” power of Jumblatt. So they went into action to ensure that no agreement would be reached on legislation that does not suit their strategy. Even the confused position of the Phalangists and Lebanese Forces was insufficient to enable the Orthodox Gathering Law to be approved.

[…]

The other directive that was issued relates to the security situation in the country.

For the West and its Arab clients, it is not enough to neutralize the Lebanese army, prevent it from acting decisively to bring the security breakdown under control, and threaten to split or scrap it. They also want direct control over the Internal Security Forces (ISF), so decided there is a pressing need for General Ashraf Rifi to be kept in his post as ISF head following the assassination of Wissam al-Hassan.

No opportunity was missed to press this point, whether in repeated remarks by the US ambassador to Lebanon, or in the Saudi ambassador’s claim to have been given an undertaking by the president of the republic that Rifi’s term would be extended. The French prime minister even raised the subject with Mikati, telling him within earshot of accompanying ministers that “President Hollande recommends” that Rifi be retained.

Il me semble que les deux raisons invoquées pour la démission de Mikati concernent deux points dans lesquels, bien plus que les tensions politiques libanaises intérieures, les pressions américaines étaient particulièrement importantes.

– les élections, il semble que ce sont bien plus les Américains qui tenaient absolument à respecter les dates (espérant le retour de leurs alliés aux affaires ?) et l’ont fait savoir ouvertement ; les politiciens libanais, eux, semblaient assez bien s’entendre pour repousser les élections ;

– Achraf Rifi atteint l’âge de la retraite (ça n’est pas une surprise), et son départ doit être rapidement suivi par le départ du chef de l’armée pour la même raison, ça peut se résoudre par un donnant-donnant entre les deux camps ; mais je suspecte que, sur le cas Rifi, les intérêts américains sont tout particulièrement en jeu.

Cette affaire sent particulièrement l’intervention de l’ambassade américaine dans les affaires intérieures libanaises. Ce qui ressemble à encore un psychodrame politico-politicien libano-libanais me semble plus le signe de très lourdes ingérences étrangères.

Lebanese PM would resign over lack of funding for STL, not over sanctions | Al Akhbar English
►http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/lebanon-pm-mikati-threatens-quit-over-stl-funding

Mikati told al-Akhbar that he asked the tribunal’s registrar, Herman von Hebel, when Lebanon had been made aware of the tribunal’s funding situation.

“I asked, when did the tribunal request funding, and he gave me a letter sent to [then PM] Saad Hariri from the tribunal at the beginning of December 2010 requesting the funding within 30 days.”

Mikati asked why the tribunal was not paid on time, the STL registrar said that there had been a deal made between Saudi Arabia and Syria that postponed the payment.

Ici, donc, le Premier ministre actuel découvre que le précédent Premier ministre, Saad Hariri, avait déjà manqué de payer la part libanaise du financement du TSL.

19 décembre 2008, câble (#cablegate #liban) explosif ; l’actuel premier ministre Mikati discute avec l’ambassadrice américaine au Liban. Les Américains commentent la rencontre ainsi : Mikati se présente à eux comme un « ennemi du Hezbollah », attendant l’occasion de redevenir Premier ministre.

En voici les passages les plus intéressants.

Lebanon : With DAS Hale, Mikati calls Hizballah a “Tumor” needing removal
►http://wikileaks.org/cable/2008/12/08BEIRUT1773.html

Responding to a question about the prime minister post in the event of a March 8 victory, Mikati said he would refuse the position under the circumstances because he would not be representing the Sunni population. Citing the unsuccessful governments of Salim Hoss and Omar Karami, Mikati said becoming prime minister without the full support of the Sunni community would always result in failure. Mikati said he was “not ready to fail.”

[...]

Describing President Michel Sleiman as quiet and unchallenging, Mikati said he had not yet seen in Lebanon the results of Sleiman’s efforts, domestically or from his many trips abroad. However, Mikati assessed Sleiman was trying to demonstrate his wisdom and judgment before serving as arbitrator, the traditional role of Lebanon’s presidents. According to Mikati, once Sleiman is arbitrator, he can govern. Nonetheless, Mikati described as “worrisome” a December 17 conversation with Sleiman in which the President said his job was easier than what he had expected. Mikati told DAS Hale and the Ambassador he had counseled Sleiman to create strong state institutions to counter Hizballah’s mini-state.

The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and the Maronite Patriarch, traditional strongholds of presidential support, are not stalwartly pro-Sleiman, according to Mikati. He described the LAF as polarized toward March 8 with most officers supporting Hizballah and opposition Christian leader Michel Aoun. Mikati described Sleiman as unsure he had the LAF’s full support. Fear of fracturing the army had probably also prevented then LAF Commander Sleiman from taking any drastic decision between 2005 and 2008, Mikati said.

[...]

Mikati, speaking as a “statesman,” argued Lebanon could not survive with a Hizballah mini-state. Regardless of his personal views on the group, Mikati said he was expecting Hizballah to bring Lebanon to a “sad ending.” He assessed that Hizballah was just like a tumor that, whether benign or malignant, must be removed.

[...]

On Hizballah’s goals in Lebanon, Mikati assessed Iran was using the group to create a military base on the Mediterranean. Ayatollah Khomeini’s goal to export the Islamic revolution to the west required a launching point, which, according to Mikati, is Lebanon. This goal will take time but Hizballah is patient, he said. DAS Hale told Mikati that peace with Israel was the most direct way to counter such intentions. Mikati agreed that peace with Israel would be a “happy ending,” but questioned whether Syria would make an agreement without Iranian permission.

[...]

Mikati argued that neutralizing Syria would enable the GOL to “gain time” on Hizballah.

[...]

Talking with the Ambassador before DAS Hale’s arrival, Mikati described the Russian gift of MIG-29 fighter planes – which received extensive local media coverage in recent days – as “strange.” He questioned whether Defense Minister Murr asked specifically for the planes or if the Russians had chosen independently to offer them. Mikati said the planes would be “impossible” to maintain and small helicopters would have been more useful for the LAF.

Comment: Mikati clearly was presenting himself for our benefit as a foe of Hizballah, as he is looking forward to potential opportunities to return to the Prime Ministry. End comment.

Lebanon’s new PM is not Hezbollah and not Iran - Haaretz
►http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/lebanon-s-new-pm-is-not-hezbollah-and-not-iran-1.339218

The incoming Lebanese prime minister, Najib Mikati, is not a representative of Hezbollah and certainly not of Iran. He is a close personal friend of Syrian President Bashar Assad, and even Saudi Arabia - the patron of the outgoing prime minister - hasn’t spoken out against Mikati, a 55-year-old Sunni native of Tripoli.

France also proposed Mikati for the premiership, after it became clear that the compromise prime minister suggested by Saudi Arabia and Syria had been rejected. If Mikati has the support of Saudi Arabia, Syria and France, the United States will have a hard time opposing him.

#Mikati #Liban

Mikati officiellement désigné par le chef d’Etat libanais 25/01/2011
►http://www.almanar.com.lb/newssite/NewsDetails.aspx?id=171270&language=fr

Selon un décompte des consultations de mardi, c’est Mikati, milliardaire sunnite et ancien Premier ministre, qui vient en tête avec 68 élus, contre 60 pour Hariri.

A la fin de ces consultations, le chef d’Etat libanais, Michel Souleimane a officiellement désigné M.Mikati, qui s’est adressé aux journalistes accrédités au Palais présidentiel. 

#Liban

Selon L’Orient-Le Jour, Mikati a reçu l’aval de Paris, Riyad, Doha et Damas :
►http://www.lorientlejour.com/category/Liban/article/686394/Mikati_adopterait_le_document_d%27entente_%3C%3C+accepte_par_Hariri+%

Les contacts extérieurs, auxquels ont pris part Paris, Riyad, Doha et Damas, se sont alors multipliés pour soutenir ce choix comme étant la seule issue plausible que l’opposition, à l’exception d’un de ses piliers, a avalisée. Les contacts se sont surtout intensifiés la nuit de dimanche et se sont conclus par le cautionnement de Mikati. Celui-ci a accepté après avoir exigé que l’opposition ne lui pose pas des conditions rédhibitoires, affirmant qu’il acceptera ce que Saad Hariri avait accepté, à savoir le document d’entente dont la teneur avait été révélée par Walid Joumblatt.

#Liban #Mikati

Tout en exigeant que l’« opposition » respecte « la majorité parlementaire et du rôle des institutions constitutionnelles » (oubliant que, si le prochainement gouvernement libanais est mené par l’« opposition », ce sera parce que cette opposition aura obtenu le soutien de la « majorité » des députés élus), L’Orient le Jour donne ses arguments pour un gouvernement représentatif des électeurs libanais :

Les tractations portaient principalement en soirée sur celle de M. Mikati, à laquelle l’Arabie saoudite s’oppose cependant. Pour Riyad, mais aussi pour l’Égypte, c’est le Premier ministre sortant qui doit être reconduit à la tête du cabinet. L’appui égyptien à M. Hariri transparaît d’ailleurs dans la déclaration du chef de la diplomatie, Ahmad Aboul Gheit, qui, après avoir qualifié la situation dans le pays de dangereuse, a mis l’accent sur le fait que « les musulmans sunnites ont des droits au #Liban qu’ils doivent protéger ». Au niveau local, le Conseil supérieur sunnite chérié et le Conseil des muftis sunnites ont exprimé leur appui à M. Hariri et appelé au respect de la majorité sunnite et parlementaire.

►http://www.lorientlejour.com/category/Liban/article/686241/Le_Hezbollah_et_la_Syrie_optent_pour_la_candidature_de_Mikati.html