The continuing advances in Tunisia are fascinating and impressive, in the context of a country that has enjoyed just 32 months of relative freedom to shape its destiny following 54 years of nonstop one-party rule.
The most significant single aspect of events in Tunisia is the capacity of all major political actors, including the Islamist Ennahda Party that leads the ruling coalition, to dialogue, negotiate and compromise when necessary in order to maintain the transition toward a pluralistic democracy that allows all ideological groups to compete for power. This week Ennahda and a handful of smaller opposition parties agreed to launch a new national political dialogue to resolve a months-old political crisis. This agreement was spurred by the combined pressure and mediation of the leading trade union, the UGTT.
The dialogue participants will include all the parties represented in the National Constituent Assembly, which is responsible for drafting the new constitution and leading the way to parliamentary elections. The dialogue road map was drafted by the UGTT, the employers’ organization Utica, the Tunisian League for Human Rights, and the Tunisian bar association – which affirms the critical role that independent civil society groups can play in such historic transitions.
Egypt, in contrast, has suffered relatively more political violence, intervention of the armed forces and Islamist/non-Islamist polarization, largely because no credible indigenous group has been able to mediate between the two main organized forces in the country – the Muslim Brotherhood and the armed forces.
The current Tunisian government headed by Ennahda will step down, and within three weeks will be replaced by a Cabinet of independents. Within four weeks, a new electoral law will open the door to parliamentary elections and the subsequent approval of the new Tunisian constitution. Within a few months, we are likely to see the formal birth of a new, legitimate, democratic and pluralistic government formed on the basis of the consent of the governed. A major turning point in modern Arab history will have occurred.
Tunisia’s ability to forge this agreement is all the more impressive because it takes place in a highly charged political context that has included several assassinations of opposition figures, and widespread disappointment in the inability of the Ennahda-led government to improve socio-economic conditions. These stresses, similar to Egypt’s, finally led to the current transition, while in Egypt the armed forces and the Islamists continue to face off in an ugly confrontation that shows no sign of easing, partly because no credible Egyptians have stepped forward to mediate a solution. The likelihood is that some group or individuals will step forward. In the meantime, Tunisia continues to show the way in the Arab world.
