Holder : We’ve Droned 4 Americans, 3 by Accident. Oops.
http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2013/05/4-americans-drone
In an extraordinary admission, Attorney General Eric Holder has told Congress that U.S. drone strikes since 2009 have killed four Americans — three of whom were “not specifically targeted.”
Ça laisse imaginer combien de non-Américains sont tués par erreur ...
#drones #exécutions #
AG: State fails to handle construction violations in settlements - Israel News, Ynetnews
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4382804,00.html
Yehuda Weinstein urges defense minister to ensure criminal enforcement of planning and construction violations in West Bank, which he says go largely unpunished
Attorney General Yehuda Weinstein sent a letter to Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon on Tuesday accusing the defense establishment of dragging its feet in relation to regulation over illegal construction in West Bank settlements, Yedioth Ahronoth reported.
“There is hardly any criminal enforcement of planning and construction violations in Judea and Samaria, this largely due to the lack of an investigative body charged with handling the issue,” Weinstein wrote.
He is demanding that Ya’alon ensure criminal enforcement of planning and construction violations in the West Bank without delay.
In his letter, Weinstein noted that last year the State had testified in the High Court of Justice that defense forces are working on reinforcing its inspection unit in the Civil Administration.
Supreme Court orders Israel’s AG to explain law allowing confiscation of Palestinian land in Jerusalem - National Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper
http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/supreme-court-orders-israel-s-ag-to-explain-law-allowing-confiscation-of-pa
The Supreme Court on Monday discussed a controversial law that allows the state to confiscate “absentee” property in Israel, a ruling which critics say allows the state to appropriate land and buildings belonging to Palestinian residents of Jerusalem who were unlucky enough to live on the wrong side of the municipal boundaries following the Six-Day War.
At least two attorneys general and a district court judge have over the years come out against the law. The hearing on Monday came after the state appealed to the Supreme Court to vacate a district court’s ruling that the law not be applied in Jerusalem.
In an unusual step, an expanded bench of seven justices headed by Supreme Court President Asher Grunis asked Attorney General Yehuda Weinstein to appear personally to explain the state’s position.
Attorney Avigdor Feldman said during the hearing that according to the letter of the law, even an Israeli settler who lives in the West Bank and has property in Israel is considered an absentee and so has to worry about the state confiscating his property.
The purpose of the Absentee Property Law, passed in 1950, was to take possession of property in Israel that belonged to Palestinian refugees. According to the law, any person present in an enemy country or outside Israel is considered an absentee, and his property goes to the Custodian of Absentee Property, today a body within the Justice Ministry.
After the Six-Day War, residents of the occupied territories who held property in Jerusalem found they had been deemed absentees without ever leaving their homes. The Iyad family from Abu Dis, for example, owned the Cliff Hotel, which is 200 meters from their home. Because the municipal boundary runs between their home and the hotel, the custodian in 2003 declared them absentees and transferred the hotel to the state’s ownership. The hotel now stands deserted.
In another example, a family, represented in Monday’s hearing by attorney Sami Arshid, lives in an older part of the Beit Hanina neighborhood, located in the West Bank, but owns property in a newer part of the neighborhood, only a few hundred meters away, within Jerusalem’s boundaries. The family’s Jerusalem home was taken by the state.
Over the years, the Absentee Property Law has become a tool for right-wing groups seeking to increase the Jewish presence in East Jerusalem. These groups ask the custodian to expropriate houses whose residents are in the West Bank and then rent the premises from the custodian, usually for a nominal fee. That is how many of the Jewish settlements in Palestinian neighborhoods in Jerusalem came into being.
Many judicial officials view the application of this law in Jerusalem as morally and legally problematic, because unlike Palestinians who fled the country during war to countries at war with Israel, the Palestinian property owners in these and many other cases are under Israeli military rule in the West Bank and sometimes live only a few meters from the home that has been taken from them.
Although in 1968, then-Attorney General Meir Shamgar ordered that the law not be applied to East Jerusalem, with the establishment of the Likud government in 1977, the law came back into force. The pendulum swung back again in 1992, under then-Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, but in 1997, restrictions on the law’s application were once again loosened, and in 2004, under then-Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, the cabinet decided, against the advice of the attorney general, to restore all the custodian’s powers with regard to property in Jerusalem.
In 2005, then-Attorney General Menahem Mazuz ordered that the law not be applied due to “its many legal difficulties” involving “the obligations of the State of Israel to international judicial rules and customs.”
In 2006, then-District Court Judge Boaz Okun also ordered the law not be applied in Jerusalem, but at the end of that year, the state appealed Okun’s ruling. Among the state’s claims was that the Palestinian Authority is a foreign political entity and therefore residents of the territories are absentees.
At Monday’s hearing, the justices suggested to representatives of the Palestinian families whose property had been taken that they apply to the custodian’s committee to have the expropriations reversed. The representatives refused, saying that doing so would recognize the legality of the custodian’s actions.
The justices are to make a ruling at a later date.
Outsourcing Lethality - By Micah Zenko | Foreign Policy
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/05/07/outsourcing_lethality?page=full
En matière de (non-)respect des vies civiles, le problème de l’administration Obama n’est pas seulement son refus de clarifier les critères qui guident ses frappes de #drones, mais aussi son emploi de l’"#outsourcing",
Quand il y a un doigt étranger sur la gâchette , Washington reste-t-il le responsable lorsque des innocents meurent ?
(...)
… si vous êtes préoccupés par les politiques d’assassinat ciblé de l’administration Obama, ne négligez pas les attaques similaires menées par les alliés et les partenaires qui reçoivent de l’argent, des armes ou des renseignements américains.
Lorsque les États-Unis fournissent à d’autres États ou à des acteurs non-étatiques des capacités qui permettent des opérations meurtrières - sans lesquelles elles ne pourraient avoir lieu - ils sont les premiers responsables du résultat. Quelle que soit la réforme sur les frappes de drones qu’offrirait la Maison Blanche, ou les audiences supplémentaires du Congrès qui pourraient être tenues, elles doivent prendre en compte le rôle troublant de l’Amérique dans les assassinats ciblés des états-client. Songez à certains des exemples récents les plus flagrants que les États-Unis ont directement encouragés :
Somalie . À partir de 2002, un petit nombre d’agents de la CIA et de forces du Commandement des opérations spéciales (JSOC) met en place un groupe de travail qui a tenté de capturer ou de tuer environ 20 agents de la cellule d’Al-Qaïda en Afrique de l’Est. La stratégie pour atteindre cet objectif à court terme a été le "recours à des « partenaires de liaison non-traditionnels » (c.-à-d., des chefs de milice), comme un câble diplomatique divulgué de l’ambassade américaine à Nairobi, au Kenya, l’a décrit plus tard. Pour son incomparable histoire des opérations antiterroristes américaines, « Dirty Wars : The World Is a Battlefield », Jeremy Scahill a interviewé un de ces partenaires de liaison, le chef de guerre Mohamed Afrah Qanyare. Comme l’écrit Scahill, en échange de 100.000 $ à 150.000 $ par mois offerts par ses contacts de la CIA, « Qanyare et ses camarades se sont engagés dans une campagne tous azimuts de meurtre et de capture contre n’importe qui - Somaliens ou étrangers - qu’ils soupçonnaient d’êtreun partisan du n’importe quel mouvement islamique. » Une source du renseignement a dit plus tard au journaliste Sean Naylor que les seigneurs de la guerre ont aidé la CIA à capturer peut-être « sept ou huit » figures d’Al-Qaïda en Somalie.
...
L’analyse prédictive et le partage de données soulèvent des inquiétudes pour les libertés civiles - O’Reilly Radar
http://radar.oreilly.com/2013/04/predictive-big-data-analytics-privacy.html
Le Centre de contre-terrorisme américain a désormais le droit d’utiliser les données des citoyens américains détenus par l’administration pour un comportement criminel possible même s’il n’y a aucune raison de les soupçonner. La police de la pensée est en marche ! Tags : internetactu2net fing internetactu #bigdata (...)
Noam Chomsky: Obama’s Attack on Civil Liberties Has Gone Way Beyond Imagination | Alternet
http://www.alternet.org/civil-liberties/noam-chomsky-obamas-attack-civil-liberties-has-gone-way-beyond-imagination
It’s interesting to see the way in which due process is being reinterpreted by Obama’s Justice Department in regards to the drone killings. Attorney General Eric Holder was asked why the administration was killing people without due process. Well, there was due process, he said, because they discuss it within the executive branch. King John in the 13th century would have loved that.
In two years, we’re going to get to the 800th anniversary of Magna Carta, and it’ll be a funeral.
Shin Bet can continue to access tourists’ emails upon arrival at Ben-Gurion, AG says - Diplomacy & Defense - Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper
http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/shin-bet-can-continue-to-access-tourists-emails-upon-arrival-at-ben-gurion-
Responding to petition filed by the Association for Civil Rights in Israel, Attorney General Yehuda Weinstein chooses not to interfere with security procedure, stating it’s ’performed only in exceptional instances, after other relevant incriminating indications are found.’
C’est aussi à Gaza que la chevelure de Samson fut coupée, sur une intrigue de Dalila, pour qu’il perde sa force et devienne un « homme ordinaire ».
PCHR Palestinian Centre for Human Rights Strongly Condemns the Arbitrary Detention of Young Men and Cutting of their Hair by the Palestinian Police in Gaza
Sunday, April 7, 2013 9:48
“PCHR Strongly Condemns the Arbitrary Detention of Young Men and Cutting of their Hair by the Palestinian Police in Gaza.
The Palestinian Centre for Human Rights (PCHR) strongly condemns the arbitrary detention of a number of young men and the cutting of their hair over the past days, by the Palestinian police in Gaza. The police has detained and attacked several men over the past days, stating that the hairstyle of these men was indecent. PCHR calls upon the Attorney General in Gaza to open investigations into these attacks, cases of arbitrary detention, and violation of civil rights of citizens. PCHR also calls upon the government in Gaza to respect citizens’ liberties, which are guaranteed under international human rights law.
According to investigations conducted by PCHR, over the three past days, the Palestinian police stopped a number of young men, who were walking in different areas in the Gaza Strip, and took them to police stations under the pretext that their hairstyle was “indecent”. The hair of the men was cut while they were in detention. Some of the men also beaten while in detention. Finally, the detainees were forced to sign a statement declaring they would not grow long hair or have a strange hairstyle, or wear “low-waisted trousers” again.” (…)
Le département de la Justice (du Obama qui est très différent du Bush) renonce finalement à obtenir les emails des citoyens américains plus facilement : Justice Dept. drops fight against tougher rules to access e-mail
http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-03-19/world/37845664_1_mail-warrant-requirement-providers
The Justice Department has dropped its long-standing objection to proposed changes that would require law enforcement to get a warrant before obtaining e-mail from service providers, regardless of how old an e-mail is or whether it has been read.
This is how corporate ‘democracy’ works — War in Context
http://warincontext.org/2013/03/28/this-is-how-corporate-democracy-works
And perhaps when Breuer’s former boss Attorney General Eric Holder steps down, he too will return to his former employer, Covington, and there, along with servicing the interests of Wall Street, they can assist the law firm’s other famous clients like Xe Services (Blackwater), Phillip Morris, and Halliburton.
If you’re not familiar with Breuer, watch The Untouchables to learn about his role in letting Wall Street off the hook following the 2008 financial crisis:
Egypt vigilantes hang 2 thieves in public
Ce n’est donc pas un fake...
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/journalists-accuse-egypts-brotherhood-assault
The lynchings came a week after the attorney general’s office encouraged civilians to arrest lawbreakers and hand them over to police.
It was one of the most extreme cases of vigilantism in two years of sharp deterioration in security following Egypt’s 2011 uprising. The worsening security coupled with a police strike prompted the attorney general’s call for citizen arrests last week.
The scene was emblematic of the chaos that is sweeping the country, mired in protests over a range of social, economic and political problems and with security breaking down to frightening proportions.
Partner of deceased Internet activist Aaron Swartz denounces US attorney general - World Socialist Web Site
http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2013/03/15/swar-m15.html
Partner of deceased Internet activist Aaron Swartz denounces US attorney general
By Kevin Reed
15 March 2013
Taren Stinebrickner-Kauffman, the partner of deceased Internet activist Aaron Swartz, issued a statement on March 10 denouncing the Senate testimony of US Attorney General Eric Holder regarding the Justice Department’s prosecution of Swartz. She also accused the US attorney’s office in Massachusetts of multiple acts of prosecutorial misconduct in its handling of the case.
Google admits its VP8/WebM codec infringes MPEG H.264 patents
http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/03/07/google-admits-its-vp8webm-codec-infringes-mpeg-h264-patents
Almost three years after Google released its WebM video encoding technology as a “free” and open alternative to the existing H.264 backed by Apple and others, it has admitted its position was wrong and that it would pay to license the patents WebM infringes.
Décidément, c’est le jour !
Tu vois, comme le dit le procureur général du Connecticut (dans http://seenthis.net/messages/121288 ) :
George Jepsen, the Connecticut attorney general who led the states’ investigation, said that he was hopeful the settlement would produce a new Google.
Je prendrais cet article avec de grosses pincettes, ils n’ont clairement qu’une idée très vague de ce qu’est la réalité objective et le monde des standards. C’est juste un article d’Apple fanboy, y a pas vraiment grand chose de sérieux dedans.
et voir aussi le framablog qui absout Google :
►http://www.framablog.org/index.php/post/2013/03/19/video-codecs-guerre
Silent on Saudi Arabia | Marc Lynch
http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/03/11/silent_on_saudi_arabia?fb_action_ids=10152624757705526
This is a mistake which will have enduring implications. I’ve been pointing to the problems caused by the “Saudi exception” in American foreign policy for a while now, and I had urged Secretary Kerry to not set aside human rights and democracy questions during his inaugural trip to the Gulf. By punting on these issues on this trip he sent a clear signal about American priorities, which do not include democracy or human rights in these Gulf countries. The sentences on Qahtani and Hamed have been months in the making, but it’s hard to not interpret the timing of their harsh sentence amidst these two high profile American visits as a clear signal of “message received.”
Ignoring these questions of reform, human rights in exchange for support on strategic issues probably seems prudent but I believe it reflects a real misreading of the evolution of Gulf politics. Bahrain isn’t over. The Saudi public sphere is rapidly transforming. Gulf-backed sectarianism is doing serious damage across the region. Do go read Omran’s essay http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/03/11/saudi_activists_silenced_and_the_us_is_silent on why this matters and how Saudi reformists are responding to this American silence.
Paul Woodward:
http://warincontext.org/2013/03/13/kerry-heaps-praise-on-saudi-dictators
It’s good Marc Lynch is drawing attention to this. It would be even better if he didn’t use euphemisms like “optics” but instead described U.S. diplomacy as a venal display of disgusting hypocrisy, or something like that.
Too-Big-to-Fail Banks Limit Prosecutor Options, Holder Says - Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-06/too-big-to-fail-banks-limit-prosecutor-options-holder-testifies.html
The size of the largest financial institutions has made it difficult for the U.S. Justice Department to bring criminal charges when there’s wrongdoing, Attorney General Eric Holder said.
Criminal charges against a bank — something that could threaten its existence — may also endanger the national or global economies in the case of the largest ones, because of their size and interconnectedness. That has “made it difficult for us to prosecute” some of those institutions, Holder said today at a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing.
Dean Baker: Big Bank Immunity: When Do We Crack Down on Wall Street?
http://www.cepr.net/index.php/op-eds-&-columns/op-eds-&-columns/big-bank-immunity-when-do-we-crack-down-on-wall-street
First off, we should not assume that just because the Justice Department says it is concerned about financial instability that this is the real reason that they are not prosecuting a big bank. There is precedent for being less than honest about such issues.
When Enron was about to collapse in 2002 as its illegal dealings became public, former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, who was at the time a top Citigroup executive, called a former aide at Treasury. He asked him to intervene with the bond rating agencies to get them to delay downgrading Enron’s debt. Citigroup owned several hundred million dollars in Enron debt at the time. If Rubin had gotten this delay Citigroup would have been able to dump much of this debt on suckers before the price collapsed.
The Treasury official refused. When the matter became public, Robert Rubin claimed that he was concerned about instability in financial markets.
It is entirely possible that the reluctance to prosecute big banks represents the same sort of fear of financial instability as motivated Robert Rubin. In other words, it is a pretext that the Justice Department is using to justify its failure to prosecute powerful friends on Wall Street. In Washington this possibility can never be ruled out.
Obama Administration Says President Can Use Lethal Force Against Americans on US Soil | Mother Jones
http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2013/03/obama-admin-says-it-can-use-lethal-force-against-americans-us-soil
Yes, the president does have the authority to use military force against American citizens on US soil—but only in “an extraordinary circumstance,” Attorney General Eric Holder said in a letter to Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) on Tuesday.
Attorney General orders a halt to Israel’s deportation of Eritrean migrants Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper
http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/attorney-general-orders-a-halt-to-israel-s-deportation-of-eritrean-migrants
Under no circumstances will Eritrean nationals in Israeli custody be sent “to any destination outside Israel’s borders” until Attorney General Yehuda Weinstein further clarifies the relevant legal issues, he declared Monday.
Weinstein, via his deputy, Dina Zilber, sent a letter to this effect to the director of the Interior Ministry’s Population, Immigration and Border Authority, Amnon Ben Ami.
Weinstein’s order was issued in response to a report Monday on Haaretz’s Hebrew website about the case of an Eritrean migrant whose “voluntary departure” from the country clearly went awry.
The man, T.H., had been given a choice by the Israeli authorities of “volunteering” to be sent to Uganda or spending three years in jail. But upon arrival in Uganda last Thursday he was refused entry, and the Ugandan authorities put him on a plane to Cairo. He was still being detained at Cairo International Airport Monday.
U.S. Accuses S.&P. of Fraud in Suit on Loan Bundles - NYTimes.com
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/02/04/u-s-and-states-prepare-to-sue-s-p-over-mortgage-ratings/?nl=todaysheadlines
The Justice Department filed civil fraud charges late on Monday against the nation’s largest credit-ratings agency, Standard & Poor’s, accusing the firm of inflating the ratings of mortgage investments and setting them up for a crash when the financial crisis struck.
FBI is increasing pressure on suspects in Stuxnet inquiry
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/fbi-is-increasing-pressure-on-suspects-in-stuxnet-inquiry/2013/01/26/f475095e-6733-11e2-93e1-475791032daf_story.html
The inquiry, which was started by Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr. last June, is examining leaks about a computer virus developed jointly by the United States and Israel that damaged nuclear centrifuges at Iran’s primary uranium enrichment plant. The U.S. code name for the operation was Olympic Games, but the wider world knew the mysterious computer worm as Stuxnet.
CIA drone strikes will get pass in counterterrorism ‘playbook,’ officials say
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/cia-drone-strikes-will-get-pass-in-counterterrorism-playbook-officials-say/2013/01/19/ca169a20-618d-11e2-9940-6fc488f3fecd_story.html
The Obama administration is nearing completion of a detailed counterterrorism manual that is designed to establish clear rules for targeted-killing operations but leaves open a major exemption for the CIA’s campaign of drone strikes in Pakistan, U.S. officials said.
The carve-out would allow the CIA to continue pounding al-Qaeda and Taliban targets for a year or more before the agency is forced to comply with more stringent rules spelled out in a classified document that officials have described as a counterterrorism “playbook.”
Obama and torture - World Socialist Web Site
http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2013/01/04/pers-j04.html
Obama et la question de la torture : analyse.
Obama and torture
4 January 2013
As the Obama administration prepares to begin its second term, with its liberal and “left” apologists speculating on prospects for progressive action, events have once again made clear that the Democratic president is continuing and deepening the crimes of his predecessor.
In his first four years in office, Obama and his attorney general, Eric Holder, worked aggressively to shut down all investigations into CIA torture and other crimes committed in the name of the “war on terrorism.” It intervened in case after case to quash lawsuits seeking to hold accountable those who had illegally abducted and tortured thousands of individuals. It sought dismissal of legal actions seeking to uncover information about these crimes by invoking state secrecy.
San Francisco-based Morrison & Foerster Identified as Suspect in Ongoing Attempts to Sabotage The Leslie Brodie Network In Matters Dealing with Exposure of Corruption In Re California Energy Crisis, Money Laundering, UC System; “No Longer Just SEO”
The Leslie Brodie Report’s technical team is looking into possibility that elements operating out San Francisco-based Morrison & Foerster are also responsible for the actual damage sustained by various platforms.
According to a knowledgeable source familiar with the situation, the recent attempts to compromise TLR “go far and beyond mere Search Engine Optimization.”
The source stated the unlawful conduct “requires advanced capabilities and are indicative of a high level of technical sophistication.”
Operating under the auspices of Diversity while hiding behind Asians and Africans, Morrison & Foerster and partner James Brosnahan were identified as potential wrongdoers in matters dealing with California Energy Crisis, Voice of OC, CaliforniaALL, as well as events surrounding various outfits maintained by the University of California.
For further reading about Morrison & Forester and James Brosnahan, please see @:
http://lesliebrodie.wordpress.com/category/james-brosnahan
AND @:
U.S. Terrorism Agency to Tap a Vast Database of Citizens - WSJ.com
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324478304578171623040640006.html
Top U.S. intelligence officials gathered in the White House Situation Room in March to debate a controversial proposal. Counterterrorism officials wanted to create a government dragnet, sweeping up millions of records about U.S. citizens—even people suspected of no crime.
Et l’article complet sur Youhou :
http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/u-terror-agency-tap-citizen-034700666.html
Tu as mis la version du 12/10.
Ce graphique est devenu « viral ». Son auteur, Matt Groff, a reçu beaucoup de questions à son sujet (notamment l’impossibilité de trouver les sources des chiffres qu’il utilise, ce que j’ai pu constater…). Il a donc refait, le 24/10, une nouvelle version, blindée.
http://www.mattgroff.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/DrugSpending.gif
C’est expliqué là : http://www.mattgroff.com/updating-the-1315-chart
Si je peux permettre d’ajouter une critique, montrer l’absence de corrélation entre les deux séries en choisissant une échelle inadaptée pour l’une des deux, c’est un peu limite…
(la zone occupée par la courbe bleue, la prévalence, occupe à peine 10% de l’espace que lui réserve son échelle)
Qu’est-ce qui laisse croire que le nombre de drogués n’aurait pas augmenté sans cette « guerre » ?
Note : je n’ai pas d’opinion (donc ne suis pas a priori favorable ou défavorable à cette « guerre »)
La pente avant 1975 laisse supposer que le nombre de drogués aurait pu continuer d’augmenter. Il y a vraisemblablement corrélation entre environ 75 et 86 (la « guerre » était alors efficace ?), mais même en ce cas rien ne permet de supposer qu’ensuite la « guerre » ne produit plus aucun résultat. Ou ai-je mal compris ?
@simplicimus : je n’ai pas compris l’histoire de la prévalence... et pas eu le temps de creuser
Mais comme le sujet m’intéresse je me permet un commentaire primaire : il est visible que l’accroissement drastique des moyens entre 86 et 92 n’est pas, de loin, proportionnel à la baisse de la courbe bleue des drogués. Et pas davantage après, où elle stagne, alors que les moyens eux continuent à augmenter.
Si tu te dis en plus que les « vendeurs » ont des accointances diverses avec les gouvernements en place, alors les uns et les autres ont financièrement intérêt à perpétuer cet afflux d’argent dans la guerre contre la drogue. Et les dindons de la farce sont les drogués, qui n’ont ni la prévention, ni les centres de soins, ni la drogue « saine » cultivée sous contrôle d’état (en cas de dépénalisation/légalisation) qui leur permettraient de décrocher ou au moins de se droguer en minimisant les risques d’en mourir. Mais est-ce qu’on veut protéger la vie des drogués ou celle des vendeurs ?
#prévention_pathologies_mortalité_liées_à_la_drogue
#intérêts_croisés
@chris1 : justement, la baisse de courbe bleue, on ne la voit pas car elle est écrasée par le choix de l’échelle bleue.
Le graphique de Matt Groff, réalisé à partir des données qu’il a compilées (énorme boulot !) et mises en lignes, documentées sur un tableur Google, là https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvG5QdXn37yydDQ1YTk3MEYzaHdsZ29Lc2t1Tm1aZWc#gid=0
http://i.imgur.com/RhkPo.jpg
(au passage, un certain nombre de points, sur les deux courbes, ne correspondent pas à des vraies données, soit parce qu’elles sont manquantes, soit parce qu’elles sont incomplètes (budgets fédéraux de 2004 à 2009), ils ont été interpolés)
L’incidence varie, sur la période en gros entre 5% et 20%. Mais il a choisi une échelle de 0% à 100%, d’où écrasement. Si j’adapte l’échelle à la plage de variation (et encore, je n’ai pas été extrémiste, je lui laisse 5% de marge en haut et en bas), ça donne ça :
http://i.imgur.com/ueTsW.jpg
Ce qui ne fait pas tout à fait la même impression…
PS : @fil : je ne connaissais pas imgur. C’est vraiment très pratique. Merci !
Le même graphique sans les points interpolés :
http://i.imgur.com/Lnh4o.jpg
Clairement, pour le budget fédéral, les points de 2004 à 2009 ont un gros problèmes. Et il a, semble-t-il considéré que ceux de 1994 à 1996 devaient être remplacés par des interpolations. Pour l’incidence, ça permet juste de visualiser où sont les données effectives ; sauf pour 2001, où il aurait été bien de savoir si la hausse s’était effectivement étalée sur deux ans, ou faite plus brusquement en 2000 ou en 2001…
@ simplissimus ah okay, merci, j’ai (presque) tout compris.
Mais sur le fond ça n’invalide pas ce que je disais sur ce sur quoi ils investissent
Une présentation plus adaptée des données permet de mieux décrire les choses et de poser quelques questions (je n’ai pas les réponses, je ne suis pas spécialiste de la drogue, je fait juste le boulot d’un statisticien).
• de 1978 à 1990, il y a une TRÈS forte décroissance de la consommation de drogue (telle que mesurée par l’enquête…) Comment s’explique-t-elle ? (cf. infra )
• et ce, avec un faible niveau de dépense fédérale, en faible progression.
• la dépense augmente très fortement entre 1986 et 1993, alors que la baisse de la consommation s’arrête vers 1988.
• après 1994, la dépense est à un niveau élevé et continue à croître lentement, la consommation est au niveau bas mais croît, elle aussi, lentement {mauvais_esprit}il y a donc corrélation entre dépense et consommation{/mauvais_esprit}. Sous réserve des (nombreux) points manquants (rappelons qu’en plus des pointillés ci-dessus, il faut ajouter les années 1994 à 1996)
Une idée toute bête (et classique chez le statisticien, mais quasiment totalement inconnue chez les autres) :
Q. : d’où vient l’information sur la consommation ?
R. : d’une enquête. Qui plus est, une enquête déclarative.
Ça veut dire quoi ? Qu’on a constitué un échantillon (rien à dire, en général, on sait faire et le supplément méthodologique de l’enquête est copieux (je ne l’ai pas survolé)). Et qu’aux individus sélectionnés, on posait des questions du genre de celle-ci :
M-5. On about how many different days did you use marijuana or hash during the past 30 days?
• if any, enter number in spaces for: _
• if none, circle ONE number for best answer:
-used marijuana or hash in your life but did NOT use any in the past 30 days: 93
-never used marijuana or hashish in your life: 91
Voili, voilà…
Par ailleurs, le 17 juin 1971, M. Richard M. Nixon déclare :
At a press conference Nixon names drug abuse as “public enemy number one in the United States.” (…) During the Nixon era, for the only time in the history of the war on drugs, the majority of funding goes towards treatment, rather than law enforcement.
ce qui lance officiellement la « Guerre à la drogue ».
La citation complète est la suivante (c’est la première phrase de son intervention après les préliminaires) :
America’s public enemy number one in the United States is drug abuse. In order to fight and defeat this enemy, it is necessary to wage a new, all-out offensive.
Dans les années suivantes, l’intensité de la répression pénale ne fait que croître. Par exemple :
• le 27 octobre 1986, Ronald W. Reagan introduit des peines plancher pour tout ce qui concerne les délits concernant la drogue
• le 8 novembre 1994, la Californie approuve (massivement) par référendum la proposition dite « Three Strikes » : au troisième délit, quel qu’il soit, peine plancher de 25 ans à perpétuité.
• le 7 novembre 2000, la Californie approuve (un peu moins massivement) qui modifie la décision précédente en autorisant la liberté conditionnelle sous l’obligation de traitement dans le cas de la simple détention de drogue.
Néanmoins, le résultat est tel, qu’en 2004, plus de la moitié des prisonniers fédéraux le sont pour des faits liés à la drogue. Et qu’un prisonnier sur huit l’est pour des affaires de marijuana :
In 2004, approximately 12.7% of state prisoners and 12.4% of Federal prisoners were serving time for a marijuana-related offense.
(dans Wikipédia, citant l’office spécialisé de la Maison Blanche.
Alors ? Et bien, vu tout ce contexte, il est littéralement délirant de considérer que l’enquête, malgré toutes les garanties de confidentialité qu’on pourra lui apporter, mesure réellement la consommation de drogue.
L’enquête mesure le comportement de déclaration de la consommation de drogue et ses évolutions ont de grandes chances de provenir des variations du biais déclaratif. Et, bien évidemment, l’effondrement de la consommation des années 80.
=======================
sources :
Richard Nixon : Remarks About an Intensified Program for Drug Abuse Prevention and Control , http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=3047
Thirty years of America’s Drug War , http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/drugs/cron
The Evolution of California’s Three Strikes Law , http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=114250301
A Primer : Three Strikes - The Impact After More Than a Decade , http://www.lao.ca.gov/2005/3_strikes/3_strikes_102005.htm
Sinon, sur le fond, j’ai plutôt tendance à penser que le tout-répressif ne résoud pas grand chose. Qu’il a conduit à élever le niveau de violence et, notamment, dans les pays voisins des États-Unis par lesquels passe la chaîne d’approvisionnement.
Voir, par exemple, la position mexicaine. À l’occasion de la prise de fonction du nouveau président, samedi dernier, Los Tiempos (parmi beaucoup d’autres…) 27/11/12, http://www.lostiempos.com/diario/opiniones/editorial/20121127/mexico-y-la-guerra-contra-las-drogas_193639_412281.html
No es fácil la tarea que le espera a Peña Nieto. Lo que está más allá de toda duda es que dar continuidad a la situación actual es lo que no se puede ni debe hacer.
(…)
Y al hacerlo, asumirá también la enorme responsabilidad de conducir a su país para salir del tenebroso laberinto al que lo ha conducido la fallida estrategia de “guerra contra las drogas”.
No es fácil el desafío que le espera a Peña Nieto, pues en pocos casos se aplica tan acertadamente la famosa frase de Napoleón según la que “es muy fácil iniciar una guerra, pero muy difícil terminarla”.
Et, oui, je suis d’accord avec toi, quand on a environ 400.000 personnes détenues pour des affaires liées à la marijuana, dont environ la moitié pour simple détention (en appliquant le pourcentage de la Californie…) on se demande où sont les priorités. (Au passage, les coûts correspondants à ces détentions ne sont pas comptés dans les coûts budgétaires totaux.)
Mais, dans l’air du temps, « yaka les foutr’en taule », ça passe mieux. Et pas que là-bas…
@simplissimus chapô et merci mucho pour la compil d’infos !
cqfd
j’ai envie d’ajouter « why the f... don’t they invest as much to prevent tranquilizers and psychotropic medics addiction ? »
et pour conclure ... on s’en fume un histoire de finir agréablement cette conversation ;-°
East of Center » Blog Archive » A Win for All Whistleblowers
http://eastofcenter.tol.org/2012/10/a-win-for-all-whistleblowers
Sur l’élection de Libor Michalek, sous la bannière du #parti_pirate, au Sénat tchèque.
#tchéquie