3 17 12 Performance | Signing Hands Across The Water
▻https://signinghandsacrossthewater.com/3-17-12-performance
merci à Julie (▻http://poetiquels.net) pour le lien
3 17 12 Performance | Signing Hands Across The Water
▻https://signinghandsacrossthewater.com/3-17-12-performance
merci à Julie (▻http://poetiquels.net) pour le lien
Kurds make game changing exchange in northern Aleppo to help rebel forces
▻https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/kurds-make-game-changing-exchange-northern-aleppo-help-rebel-forces
According to local activists in northern Aleppo, the Syrian Democratic Forces will hand-over the villages of Tal Rifa’at, Mennagh, Kafr Karmeen, Deir Jammal, Harbek, ‘Ayn Daqnah, and Mur’anez to the Free Syrian Army.
Initially, the Syrian Democratic Forces seized these villages from the Turkish-backed rebels; however, in some strange agreement recently, these sites will be handed back over.
These villages are located just north of the Syrian Arab Army’s (SAA) positions in the Al-Zahra’a Valley, which puts the latter in a rough situation as they prepare for their large-scale offensive in the ‘Anadan Plain.
La plaine d’Anadan se trouve à mi-chemin entre Alep et, en direction du nord-ouest, les très célèbres ruines de Saint-Siméon (sublime site mais aussi très stratégique). Les FDS sont des kurdes soutenus par les USA, tout comme l’ASL. On note juste que ces révolutionnaires ont l’amabilité de faire à peu près ce qui arrange leurs commanditaires.
Un point assez complet sur les combats actuels en Syrie et la pause dans les pourparlers :
Syrian rebels launch new assaults as opposition seeks peace talks ’pause’
MEE / 18.04.16
▻http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/rebels-launch-new-offensives-syrian-opposition-seeks-pause-peace-talk
Relevé des points saillants :
A Lattaquieh :
Among the groups involved in the Latakia offensive are Kataib Ansar al-Sham, the al-Qaeda-linked Turkistan Islamic Party, Ahrar al-Sham, Jaish al-Islam and the First Coastal Division.
A Hama :
There were also reports of a new opposition offensive against government targets in Hama.
According to the pro-Assad al-Masdar news site, fighters from the al-Qaeda splinter group Jund al-Aqsa launched a major assault on the al-Ghaab Plains near the Hama-Latakia axis, in an attempt to capture the village of Khirbat al-Naqous.
A Alep :
On Sunday, government jets carried out air strikes in Aleppo province that killed at least 11 civilians, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory of Human Rights.
Formation d’une nouvelle chambre d’opération commune Ahrar al-Cham/ Jaysh al-Islam et groupes labellisés ASL - sans qu’al-Nousra qui participe aux combats, avec d’autres organisations classées terroristes (Parti Islamique du Turkestan), n’en fassent formellement partie :
A number of groups, including the powerful Ahrar al-Sham group, also announced on Monday the “formation of a joint operations room to begin the battle...in response to violations by the army of Assad”.
Toujours la question d’Assad sur laquelle les négociations achoppent :
Negotiations between the opposition and the government have stalled over the government’s refusal to discuss the opposition’s call for Assad to step aside as part of any peace deal and some have suggested that rebels on the ground have pushed for the opposition negotiators to withdraw from talks altogether.
Les tweets de Mohammed Allouche, négociateur du HCN (opposition de Ryadh) appellant à frapper le régime partout - et donc à mettre fin à la cessation des hostilités :
On Sunday, Mohammed Alloush, senior negotiator for the HNC, called in a tweet for the resumption of attacks on Syrian government targets.
“Don’t trust the regime and don’t wait for their pity,” Alloush wrote on Twitter.
“Strike them at their necks [kill them]. Strike them everywhere,” he said, reciting a passage from the Quran dealing with war.
En bonus de jolies photos/vidéos récentes de rebelles avec des missiles anti-tanks américains TOW et des missiles sol-air portatifs (chinois)...
Pour mémoire ce regain des combats a commencé, dans un contexte d’accusations réciproques de non respect de la cessation des hostilités, par la grande offensive rebello-alQaïdesque au sud d’Alep, il y a plus de deux semaines : ►http://seenthis.net/messages/475842
Le régime syrien annonce une offensive soutenue par la Russie pour prendre tout Alep , où dans le sud une contre-offensive du régime et de ses alliés tente déjà de récupérer le terrain perdu ces derniers jours face à l’offensive récente d’une coalition comprenant al-Nousra, des groupes salafistes et d’autres affiliés à l’ASL.
Syrian PM says Russia to back new Aleppo attack ; opposition says truce near collapse
Reuters / 10.04.16
▻http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-idUSKCN0X70GE
Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halaki told a delegation of visiting Russian lawmakers of preparations to “liberate” Aleppo, Syria’s biggest city and commercial hub before the conflict that erupted in 2011. Aleppo is divided into areas controlled separately by the government and opposition.
“We, together with our Russian partners, are preparing for an operation to liberate Aleppo and to block all illegal armed groups which have not joined or have broken the ceasefire deal,” he was quoted as saying by TASS news agency.
Dmitry Sablin, a member of Russia’s upper house of parliament and a member of the delegation, told RIA news agency “Russian aviation will help the Syrian army’s ground offensive operation”.
L’opposition de Ryadh déclare que la cessation des hostilités est sur le point de s’effondrer :
A member of the main opposition council said the last 10 days had “witnessed a serious deterioration, to the point where the ceasefire is about to collapse”. Bassma Kodmani of the High Negotiations Committee also told Journal du Dimanche that a U.S.-Russian ceasefire monitoring mission was “powerless”.
The army says groups that had agreed to the cessation of hostilities had taken part in Nusra Front attacks on government-held positions south of Aleppo. Free Syrian Army groups meanwhile blame the fighting on government violations.
“The air strikes are now roughly back to what they were,” said Mohamed Rasheed, head of the media office with the Jaysh al-Nasr rebel group. A Syrian military source said: “The battles are raging because ... armed groups that were part of the (truce) joined Nusra in the attack.”
Tandis qu’on annonce l’arrivée de renforts nombreux pour le régime du côté d’Alep, tout semble en place pour une confrontation majeure du côté de Lattaquieh (frontière turque) et à Alep. Les Russes, les Iraniens et le régime semblent vouloir infliger une leçon à tous les groupes qui se sont alliés à al-Nousra, non seulement en récupérant le terrain perdu récemment, mais en réalisant des faits nouveaux sur le terrain.
Qu’en pensent les Américains ? Jusqu’où va leur entente avec les Russes ?
Selon al-Monitor, à la suite de la déclaration fracassante du premier ministre syrien Wael al-Halaki sur la vaste contre-offensive prévue à Alep et qui serait soutenue par les Russes, des officiels russes auraient dit aux Américains : ne l’écoutez pas, il est irrationnel :
▻http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/04/us-russia-ceasefire-syria-kerry-lavrov-nusra-aleppo-geneva.html#
Russian officials have told the Americans that they are committed to sustaining the cessation of hostilities. Indeed, after Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halqi was cited telling a visiting delegation of Russian lawmakers April 9 that a Russian-backed Syrian army operation was soon to get underway to liberate Aleppo, the Russians told the Americans don’t listen to him, he’s “irrational,” a Syrian opposition contact in touch with US officials working on Syria told Al-Monitor.
Notably, after the US expressed concern about how a major operation against Jabhat al-Nusra near Aleppo could affect the cease-fire ahead of new talks, Russia did not provide air support to Iranian special forces involved in intense clashes against Jabhat al-Nusra in Al-Eis, near Aleppo, on April 11-12, an Iranian and a British journalist near Aleppo said.
Il me semble que ça a déjà été référencé ici mais ne le trouvant plus...
Dans un reportage du Time de juillet 2012 où le journaliste a rencontré différents militants rebelles (d’al-Nousra à l’ASL) sont rapportés les propos d’un membre d’Ahrar al-Cham qui prétend que les cellules du groupes ont été formées bien avant le début de la « révolution » syrienne en mars à 2011 à Deraa et après la révolution égyptienne (soit entre décembre 2010 et février 2011) :
▻http://world.time.com/2012/07/26/time-exclusive-meet-the-islamist-militants-fighting-alongside-syrias-reb
In another town in northern Idlib, another jihadist — belonging to a different group — shared Ibrahim’s goal of an Islamic state. “Abu Zayd” is a 25-year-old Shari’a graduate who heads one of the founding brigades of Ahrar al-Sham, a group that adheres to the conservative Salafi interpretation of Sunni Islam. [...]
The Ahrar started working on forming brigades “after the Egyptian revolution,” Abu Zayd said, well before March 15, 2011, when the Syrian revolution kicked off with protests in the southern agricultural city of Dara’a. The group announced its presence about six months ago, he said. Abu Zayd denied the presence of foreigners, even though TIME saw a man in the group’s compound who possessed strong Central Asian features. “Maybe his mother is,” Abu Zayd said unconvincingly. “We are not short of men to need foreigners.”
Via Moon of Alabama
Escalade au sud d’Alep où un ensemble de groupes avec notamment les groupes salafistes al-Nousra, Ahrar al-Cham et Jound al-Aqsa attaquent plusieurs villages constituant des positions prises par l’armée syrienne fin 2015 lorsqu’elle avait, avec l’appui de l’aviation russe, établi une zone sécurisant l’autoroute Damas-Alep. Le village de Tall al-’Eiss vient semble-t-il d’être pris par al-Nousra. L’attaque est présentée par ces groupes comme une réponse aux violations du cessez-le-feu par le régime.
2 remarques sur cette escalade :
1° - al-Nousra pourrait être en train d’essayer d’entraîner plusieurs groupes à rendre caduque la cessation des hostilités - même si la zone concernée ne fait pas partie de cet accord. Voir ici l’analyse d’E.J. Magnier sur la menace que cet accord fait peser sur al-Nousra : ▻http://seenthis.net/messages/475052
Sujet déjà abordé à plusieurs reprises sur seen this (voir #liste_blanche / #liste_noire)
2° - la Division 13 (ASL), récemment boutée hors de son QG de Maraat al-Nouman par al-Nousra (voir : ▻http://seenthis.net/messages/469485), ce qui avait déclenché des manifestations pro-ASL et anti-alNousra dans la ville, combat désormais au cours de cette offensive aux côtés de cette branche syrienne d’al-Qaïda.
Ceci attesté sur son compte twitter où est publiée la photo d’un de ses combattants mort dans la bataille pour la prise du village de « Khalidyah dans le rif sud d’alep » : ▻https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ce-9m7KWQAAhLDC
Photo violente, ajouter .jpg au lien final pour ceux qui souhaitent consulter la photo du « martyre » de la division 13.
Pour l’ensemble des liens pour chacun des groupes : ▻https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/4cyneh/armed_groups_participating_in_the_rebel_spring
Dépêche Associated Press :
▻http://bigstory.ap.org/urn:publicid:ap.org:7d2db4bd879d49dea7048d7d9f0d0094
BEIRUT (AP) — Syria’s partial cease-fire is unravelling, as fierce fighting between government forces and opposition fighters, including members of the al-Qaida affiliated Nusra Front, erupted Saturday outside the country’s second largest city of Aleppo.
At least 25 pro-government fighters died in clashes south of Aleppo, where the Nusra Front and rebel militias captured a hill overlooking a major highway, a Britain-based monitoring group told The Associated Press.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said fighting continued throughout the day Saturday close to the village of Tel al-Ais, which overlooks the main road connecting Aleppo with the capital, Damascus.
The coordinated rebel and Nusra Front offensive follows weeks of air raids on opposition-held areas despite the partial cease-fire. The truce agreement, the first of its kind in Syria’s five year war, excludes the Nusra Front and the Islamic State group.
Une dépêche Reuters aussi :
▻http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-aleppo-idUSKCN0WZ0O5?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNew
Le tout dans le contexte où Ryad Hijab fait des déclarations fracassantes à Genève expliquant qu’il n’est pas optimiste sur les accords de Genève et critique le manque de volonté américain :
▻http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-opposition-idUSKCN0WZ0B5
The Syrian opposition is not optimistic about upcoming peace talks in Geneva because there is no international will for a political transition, opposition member Riad Hijab told Al Araby Al Jadid television late on Friday.
The Syrian opposition has consistently said that it wants a halt in attacks on civilians and for the Geneva talks to result in a transitional governing body for Syria that does not include President Bashar al-Assad.
“There is no international will, especially from the U.S. side, and I do not expect anything to come of the negotiations,” said Hijab , the coordinator for the Saudi-backed Higher Negotiation Committee (HNC), the main opposition bloc.
On serait un peu parano - mais je me soigne - on pourrait voir là un feu vert donné par l’Arabie saoudite à ce coup de canif dans la cessation des hostilités.
#ASL et #Israel
▻http://www.timesofisrael.com/the-curious-case-of-israels-syrian-patients
How did Faris get to Israel? After he was injured, he said, “the guys came and brought me to the border crossing. The Israeli army was waiting there for me and took me to the hospital.”
“The guys? Which guys?” this reporter asked.
Faris paused for a few seconds. “The Free Syrian Army brought me to the border,” he said.
It is possible, said Boms, that Israel had treated members of al-Nusra. Rebel fighters have been switching back and forth between FSA brigades and more Islamist groups. Perhaps, he explained, those al-Nusra members who came through were linked to more moderate groups with whom the IDF has connections.
That Israel remains ambiguous about the identity of those groups on the other side, he said, “is not divorced from logic.”
In a conflict where loyalties and realities on the ground are constantly shifting, concluded Boms, ambiguity and complexity can leave much needed room for maneuvering.
Un Mig-21 de l’armée syrienne a été abattu le 12 mars 2016 près de Kafr Nabudah (nord-ouest de Hama). Le pilote qui s’est éjecté a été abattu.
Accusations du régime syrien selon lesquelles des groupes rebelles syriens disposeraient désormais de « MANPAD » (missiles Sol-air portatifs = Option Stinger) :
▻http://www.pravdareport.com/news/hotspots/terror/14-03-2016/133805-syrian_aircraft-0
Rapport du ministre de la défense russe qui fait écho à cette accusation et dénégation des groupes rebelles (notamment ici de l’ASL)/ Dépêche Reuters 13.03.2016 :
▻http://news.yahoo.com/syrian-rebels-deny-missile-used-shoot-down-warplane-163802317.html
BEIRUT (Reuters) - Syrian rebels on Sunday denied a Russian Defence Ministry report that an anti-aircraft missile had been used to shoot down a Syrian warplane in Hama province on Saturday.
Officials in three rebel groups contacted by Reuters reiterated previous statements that it had been shot down with anti-aircraft guns.
Fares al-Bayoush, head of a Free Syrian Army rebel group operating in the Hama area, said the Russian statement might be aimed at “accusing some states of supplying the opposition with anti-aircraft missiles”.
Voir ici les vidéos des uns et des autres censées étayer l’accusation et les dénégations :
▻https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/NewsReports/566736-syria-jet-purportedly-downed-by-surface-to-air-missile
al-Nousra vient d’attaquer et de prendre le QG de la division 13 de l’ASL (groupe soutenu par la CIA) à Idlib, sur fond de manifestations pro-opposition réprimées par al-Nousra : ▻http://seenthis.net/messages/468132
Accusations réciproques sur qui a attaqué l’autre en premier :
Combats rapportés également entre les deux groupes à Maarat al-Nouman qui ont tourné à l’avantage d’al-Nousra.
Via twitter Hassan Ridha
▻https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/708794171830571009
L’occasion de rappeler l’article fouillé et récent de Balanche sur la présence écrasante d’al-Nousra au nord-ouest en Syrie :
►http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/how-to-prevent-al-qaeda-from-seizing-a-safe-zone-in-northwester
Et l’article de Moon of alabama sur les combats Division13/JAN : ▻http://www.moonofalabama.org/2016/03/syria-another-cia-supplied-group-hands-its-weapons-to-al-qaeda.html
Dépêche Reuters sur ces combats :
▻http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-nusra-idUSKCN0WF0AS
Al Qaeda in Syria seizes bases, weapons of Western-backed group: monitor
The al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front seized bases and weapons from a Western-backed rebel group in overnight fighting in northwestern Syria, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said on Sunday.
Rami Abdulrahman, director of the Observatory, said the Nusra Front had also detained dozens of members of the 13th Division rebel group, one of the factions that has received foreign military aid, capturing U.S.-made anti-tank missiles.
The 13th Division, which is led by the prominent rebel commander Ahmed al-Seoud and fights under the banner of the Free Syrian Army, said on Twitter that Nusra Front fighters attacked its bases and seized weapons, but gave no further details.
Nusra Front accused the rebel fighters of launching surprise attacks on its own bases in the town of Maarat al-Numan in Idlib province in northwest Syria. It said some Nusra fighters had been captured.
al-Nousra aurait aussi attaqué une base du groupe Faylaq al-Sham à Tall Tuqan (sud d’Alep) :
▻https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/708995223574024192
via twitter Hassan Ridha
La rétrospective des combats qui ont opposé al-Nousra avec les groupes armés soutenus soit par la CIA, soit par le Pentagone :
▻http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2016/03/al-nusrah-front-raids-rebel-groups-headquarters-in-idlib-province-se
L’article rappelle par ailleurs, comme la dépêche Reuters, que la Division 13 a reçu des TOW qui pourraient donc tomber dans les mains d’al-Nousra...
Avec ce rappel savoureux
▻http://news.antiwar.com/2016/03/13/syrian-al-qaeda-seizes-us-made-missiles-in-fight
The US has expressed concern about Russian airstrikes against Idlib, even if targeting al-Qaeda, on the grounds they threaten American allies.
Dans un article du WINEP sur les motivations supposées de Da’ich dans l’attentat à Istanbul l’auteur soutient qu’il y aurait un plan américano-turc pour reprendre le contrôle de la frontière turco-syrienne d’Azaz à Jarabulus, plan que selon lui Da’ich aurait visé à contrecarrer en commettant cet attentat :
▻http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/what-is-behind-the-istanbul-attack
Second, by bringing the war to Turkey’s largest city, IS aims to undercut the planned U.S.-Turkish campaign against its forces in Syria, which is reportedly scheduled to begin in a matter of weeks following Vice President Joe Biden’s January 23 visit to Ankara. The apparent goal of the joint plan is to capture the sixty-mile-long Jarabulus-Azaz corridor along the Syrian border, most of which is currently held by IS. If successful, the campaign would effectively plug the group’s last overland conduit from Syria into Turkey and Europe. The IS leadership is well aware that such a development would hurt its finances, recruitment efforts, and prestige, so it appears to have acted preemptively in the hope that Turkey will stand down or at least not escalate its military efforts.
L’article ne mentionne pas que, de fait, pour la partie tenue par Jaysh al-Fatah, le corridor d’Azaz est largement menacé de tomber sous les efforts distincts de l’Armée syrienne et des forces kurdes du YPG dans le canton d’Afrin, soutenus tous deux par l’aviation russe. La route Azaz-Alep étant d’ores et déjà coupée sur une petite partie par l’armée syrienne.
D’autre part, à l’est d’Alep, dans la zone tenue par Da’ich, d’un côté les kurdes du YPG, adjoints de quelques groupes de l’ASL au sein des SDF et soutenus par l’aviation américaine, ont déjà passé la « ligne rouge » turque de l’Euphrate et pourrait se diriger vers Manbij, tandis que de l’autre côté l’armée syrienne progresse depuis sa reprise de l’aéroport militaire de Kuweires en direction de la ville d’al-Bab.
Ce plan serait-il une manière de réagir à ces évolutions inquiétantes pour la Turquie tout en actant la fin de son soutien de fait à Da’ich et en s’intégrant à un éventuel plan américain pour en pas rester sur la touche ?
Si quelqu’un à des lumières particulières ou d’autres sources évoquant cet hypothétique plan américano-turc...
Une carte - au code couleur étrange : violet pour le régime et mauve pour Da’ich ! - pour comprendre un peu la situation militaire au nord de la Syrie, tirée du dernier article de Balanche sur le site du WINEP (hum !) :
A lire également, l’article approfondi de Balanche qu’accompagne la carte, qui présente de manière exhaustive la situation complexe au nord de la Syrie :
▻https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/the-die-is-cast-the-kurds-cross-the-euphrates
As the PYD and its allies seized Abu Qilqil, several sources indicated that IS might abandon Manbij, mainly because it faces major local hostility there and would be unable to defend the town against a Kurdish advance. On November 12, Manbij civilians protested the forced recruitment of young men to fight with IS on the Azaz front line. And on December 19, the group executed fourteen civilians out of fear that an uprising might be brewing.
Meanwhile, the PYD offensive has been supported by coalition airstrikes, indicating that the move was at least partly coordinated with the United States and was not a unilateral PYD decision. From that perspective, the advance toward Manbij could be part of a strategy to win back Raqqa. If Manbij falls, the capital of the “caliphate” could eventually become isolated from the rest of IS territory in Syria. All of the Euphrates bridges from the Turkish border south to Assad Lake have been destroyed or are controlled by the Kurds. If the PYD moves further south and the Syrian army launches an offensive toward al-Bab or Assad Lake, many IS personnel would be trapped in east Aleppo province.
WHO WOULD BENEFIT MOST?
To the west, the rebel groups controlling the Azaz corridor are currently on the defensive against IS, which has seized several villages in the area since September and is slowly progressing toward Azaz. The priority of the Saudi/Turkish-backed Jaish al-Fatah is to defend the supply road to eastern Aleppo against the Kurds in the west and the Syrian army in the south. Yet Russian aircraft are multiplying their raids on the corridor and weakening the rebel defenses, especially near the border crossing of Bab al-Salam, and losing this road would leave rebel units in the eastern districts almost completely surrounded by regime forces. Some assistance would still flow from the western Bab al-Hawa border crossing, but the Syrian army’s progress around Aleppo threatens that route as well.
L’Assemblée des turkmènes syriens (▻https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Turkmen_Assembly) s’est réunie à Gaziantep (Turquie) pour décider que les différents groupes de combattants turkmènes qui opèrent sous la bannière de l’ASL, en étroite coordination avec les militaires turcs, soient unifiés au sein d’un commandement militaire unique visant à combattre et refouler les kurdes du YPG (beaucoup) et éventuellement Da3ich (un peu, si les Turcs s’entendent avec les Américains) :
▻https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/NewsReports/565547-syria-turkmen-move-to-form-anti-kurd-army
Syrian Turkmen military and political officials, who are close to Turkey, have been moving to form a unified army in northern Syria capable of confronting the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), which Ankara views as a terror group.
“Turkmen fighting groups in Syria have taken the decision to offer greater support to each other and work to create a Turkmen army if conditions permit,” Syrian Turkmen Assembly chief Abdel Rahman Mustafa told Turkish Anadolu news on Monday.
The Turkmen official’s comments came as the Syrian Turkmen Assembly held a meeting in southern Turkey’s Gaziantep that brought together Turkmen representatives from Aleppo, Tal Abyad, Jarabulus, Latakia, Idlib, Raqqa and the Golan.
Alaraby Aljadeed reported that the Turkmen military and civilian officials in the meeting decided to form a military council which reports to the Syrian Turkmen Assembly, a pro-opposition group with ties to the Turkish government.
The decision to form the council comes after calls emerged from Turkmen military formations to fight both ISIS and the Kurdish Democratic Union Party that controls the YPG, the London-based daily added.
Syrian Turkmen have already armed themselves in a series of brigades throughout Syria that are loosely affiliated with each other and count on about 10,000 armed men in total, with the largest fighting units operating in the Aleppo province.
Turkey’s security institutions maintain close links with the Turkmen units in Syria, providing special forces training to the brigades, which are affiliated with the Free Syrian Army and have taken part in operations in Aleppo, Idlib and outside Latakia.
Erdogan tente-t-il une voie médiane pour peser sur les évènements au Nord et éviter un contrôle par la milice kurde des routes d’approvisionnement de Da3ich et des rebelles d’Ansar al-Chariah (al-Nusra, Ahrar al-Cham et les débris de l’ASL) sans avoir à recourir à une intervention militaire directe qui rencontre l’hostilité de certains militaires turcs et des States ?
Toujours est-il que deux envoyés militaires américains ont rencontré aujourd’hui des officiels turcs pour discuter de la Syrie selon l’AFP :
▻http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/contents/afp/2015/07/syria-conflict-turkey-us-military-diplomacy.html
The US special envoy for the coalition against the Islamic State (IS) group was in Ankara on Tuesday to meet Turkish officials, after speculation Turkey could launch a military intervention inside Syria, sources told AFP.
“General John Allen will hold talks in Ankara today,” a Turkish official told AFP on condition of anonymity, adding that the talks were “naturally” expected to focus on the fight against IS.
Accompanied by US Undersecretary of Defence for Policy Christine Wormuth and military officials, Allen is expected to meet with Feridun Sinirlioglu, the Turkish undersecretary of the foreign ministry as well as military chiefs, the source said.
Turkey has reinforced its military presence on the volatile border over the past week, deploying tanks and anti-aircraft missiles there as well as additional troops.
The moves come as fighting between Islamist-led groups an
d Syrian regime forces in the northern city of Aleppo has intensified.
A lire sur al-monitor, une très intéressante tentative de prospective sur l’avenir de la politique turque vis à vis de la Syrie à l’aune des changements des rapports de force politiques suite aux résultats des récentes élections législatives :
The future of Turkey’s Syria policy
▻http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/06/turkey-qatar-syria-saudi-arabia-remain-alone-in-syria.html#
Selon l’analyse de l’auteur la plupart des partis autres que l’AKP sont sceptiques voire très critiques vis à vis de la politique choisie par l’ex-tandem Erdogan-Davutoglu et donc susceptible de profondes révisions. Les doutes se feraient sentir au sein même de l’AKP. Selon l’auteur, quelle que soit la coalition qui formera le nouveau gouvernement turc, Jaysh al-Fatah au Nord (coalition groupant al-Nusra Ahrar al-Cham et les débris de l’ASL) devrait voir l’appui turco-qataro-saoudien s’amoindrir - même si au sud les opérations dirigées depuis une chambre d’opérations à Amman (groupant Qatar, AS, Turquie et pays occidentaux [et aussi très probablement Israël]) et s’appuyant sur le Front Révolutionnaire du Sud ne devraient pas être affectées :
As Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed with Saudi King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud in their Riyadh meeting, the new addresses for weapons assistance were al-Qaeda’s Syrian branch of Jabhat al-Nusra and the Army of Conquest (Jaish al-Fateh), led by Ahrar al-Sham, set up by former al-Qaeda affiliates.
After the shipment of weapons via Turkey, the Army of Conquest captured Idlib, Jisr al-Shughour, Ariha and Mastume. The Syrian army also lost some locations in the south. In the latest development, the 52nd Brigade, which was 100 kilometers (62 miles) south of Damascus, had to abandon its base.
On the northern front, the objective of the Army of Conquest is to capture Aleppo and Latakia after Idlib and then move toward Damascus. Before Turkey’s elections, there were reports that Turkey was about to send troops to Syria along with Saudi Arabia to set up a buffer zone. The second prong of the strategy developed by the Turkey-Saudi-Qatari alliance is to devise a new approach in the south. The south front, commanded from an operations room in Amman, Jordan, in the presence of Western intelligence officials, will hopefully be reorganized under the leadership of Zahran Alloush, commander of the Army of Conquest.
Reports say that Alloush was in Istanbul last month to meet with opposition representatives and then in Amman to meet with Gulf and Western intelligence services.
The scenarios for government change in Turkey will not affect support for the opposition from Amman, but the future of the northern front will depend mostly on Ankara’s new attitude. If the new government in Ankara does not agree to continue with the Turkey-Qatar-Saudi Arabia partnership, then the flow of weapons via Turkey will cease. In such a case, it won’t be easy for the Army of Conquest to hold on to the territory it has captured in Idlib and the vicinity.
The Syrian army is now massing around Idlib and preparing for a major offensive. According to journalist Mehmet Serim, who is reporting from Damascus, Assad’s regime was waiting for the Turkish elections for its major offensive.
Selon des déclarations faites à l’agence de presse iranienne IRNA et rapportées par Newsweek, le général Qassem Suleimani promet une grosse surprise en Syrie :
▻http://europe.newsweek.com/iranian-military-mastermind-soleimani-vows-surprise-world-syria-328
“The world will be surprised by what we and the Syrian military leadership are preparing for the coming days,” Iran’s official IRNA state news agency quoted the general as saying.
The agency added that it “takes no responsibility for the information”.
Une source sécuritaire syrienne anonyme aurait par ailleurs rapporté à l’AFP qu’environ 7000 combattants irakiens et iraniens seraient arrivés en renfort de l’armée syrienne d’abord pour sécuriser Damas, ensuite pour reprendre le noeud stratégique de Jisr al-Choughour à Jaysh al-Fatah (al-Nusra, Ahrar al-Cham et consorts de l’ASL) :
“Around 7,000 Iranian and Iraqi fighters have arrived in Syria over the past few weeks and their first priority is the defence of the capital. The larger contingent is Iraqi,” the Syrian security source, speaking on condition of anonymity, told AFP news agency.
“The goal is to reach 10,000 men to support the Syrian army and pro-government militias, firstly in Damascus, and then to retake Jisr al-Shughur because it is key to the Mediterranean coast and the Hama region,” the source added.
Informations de l’AFP déjà évoquées ici par @gonzo : ▻http://seenthis.net/messages/377121
Chez Now Hariri, ils sont terrorisés. Avant hier, ils ont commencé à se demander ce qu’était cette « surprise » : Iran’s Soleimani vows Syria “surprise”
▻https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/NewsReports/565369-irans-soleimani-vows-syria-surprise
Iranian Revolutionary Guards Quds Force chief Qassem Soleimani has vowed that upcoming developments in Syria will soon “surprise” the world, Al-Quds al-Arabi reported.
“The world will be surprised by what we and the Syrian military leadership are preparing for the coming days,” the state Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) quoted Soleimani as saying, according to the London-based daily.
et aujourd’hui, c’est carrément la panique : Pro-Assad daily : Iran preparing Idlib offensive
▻https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/NewsReports/565378-pro-assad-daily-iran-preparing-idlib-offensive
“During the last [few] days, and through a joint Syrian-Iranian-Iraqi decision, more than 20,000 Iranian, Iraqi, and Lebanese fighters have poured into the Idlib area,” As-Safir reported in a dramatic article published Tuesday.
The report said that the new troops had been sent to the regime’s front lines in the northern Hama province village of Jourin and areas in the southern part of the Idlib province, which rebels seized last week following months of sweeping advances.
As-Safir mentioned Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani’s visit to the area, saying that the famed general was “accompanied by units that took part in fighting in Iraq, and in the recapturing of [the country’s] Salaheddine [province].”
According to As-Safir, “the mobilization in northern Syria is unprecedented [with regard to] Iranian and Iraqi presence in Syria since the outbreak of the war on [the country] four years ago.”
“A mobilization of this size registers as a break from the undeclared Iranian-Turkish understanding, that direct and exposed confrontation between the two countries in Syria is to be avoided.”
Un truc me turlipine. Pourquoi claironner une surprise ?
– Pour tordre le bras aux tenants d’une autre ligne à Téhéran qui voudraient prendre leur distance ou tout au moins convaincre Assad d’abandonner l’espoir de reconquérir Alep, comme on a pu le lire récemment ?
– Pour faire diversion avant d’attaquer ailleurs ?
– Pour remonter le moral des troupes syriennes ?
– Ou bien pour envoyer un message à certaines puissances étrangères afin de les inciter à se désengager du terrain avant qu’une offensive n’ait lieu qui pourrait, sinon, amener à des morts que l’on regretterait de part et d’autre ?
En tout cas la panique de « Now Hariri » sera mon plaisir de ce soir...
Ça peut aussi être du flan. Si le Safir est la seule source, je prends en général avec une pincée de sel.
Confirmation :
Syrie : 10 000 volontaires rejoignent Damas pour soutenir le régime
►https://www.facebook.com/index.php
▻http://www.rfi.fr/moyen-orient/20150604-syrie-10000-volontaires-soutien-regime-sauver-damas-bachar
Iran denies troops deployed in Syria | News , Middle East | THE DAILY STAR
▻http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2015/Jun-10/301425-iran-denies-troops-deployed-in-syria.ashx
Quelqu’un a vu passer des confirmations/reprises/réfutations de ceci ? Free Syrian Army abandons Aleppo, leader flees to Turkey
▻http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/free-syrian-army-abandons-aleppo-leader-flees-to-turkey.aspx?page
The Free Syrian Army (FSA), the recognized armed opposition group against the Bashar al-Assad in Syria, has ceased its resistance in Aleppo, Syria’s second biggest city, withdrawing its 14,000 militia from the city, a ranking Turkish security source told the Hürriyet Daily News on Nov. 17.
“Its leader Jamal Marouf has fled to Turkey,” confirmed the source, who asked not to be named. “He is currently being hosted and protected by the Turkish state.”
The source did not give an exact date of the escape but said it was within the last two weeks, that is, the first half of November. The source declined to give Marouf’s whereabouts in Turkey.
Dans Al Akhbar d’hier qui dresse le bilan des groupes armés à Alep, l’ASL n’est mentionnée qu’à la fin pour dire que sa présence est symbolique. Le chiffre de 14000 semble chimérique.
خريطة النفوذ الإقليمي والدولي في حلب | الأخبار
►http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/219887
Oui, c’est ce que j’avais aussi indiqué il y a quelques temps.
Sinon, l’article du Akhbar est disponible en anglais aujourd’hui :
▻http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/map-regional-and-international-influence-aleppo
Dans Al Akhbar d’hier qui dresse le bilan des groupe armés à Alep, l’ASL n’est mentionnée qu’à la fin pour dire que sa présence est symbolique. Le chiffre de 14000 semble chimérique.
خريطة النفوذ الإقليمي والدولي في حلب | الأخبار
►http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/219887
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Portrait du général syrien Salim Idriss, par Claude Guibal
▻http://www.franceculture.fr/emission-trait-pour-trait-le-general-syrien-salim-idriss-2013-06-13
Analysts : Foreign militant Islamists streaming into Syria to face Hezbollah | McClatchy
▻http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/06/07/193368/analysts-foreign-militant-islamists.html
Enfin, quand on lit l’article il ne s’agirait pas que de combattre le Hezbollah mais tous ceux qui ne partagent pas leurs vues, y compris au sein de l’"ASL".
Foreign Islamist extremists are streaming into Syria, apparently in response to the Shiite militant group Hezbollah’s more visible backing of Syrian President Bashar Assad, a development that analysts say is likely to lead to a major power struggle between foreign jihadists and Syrian rebels should the regime collapse.
Researchers who monitor the conflict said this week that they’ve detected the influx of foreigners in firsthand observations on the battlefield, spotting them in rebel videos posted on the Internet, observing a recent spike in reported deaths of foreign fighters and studying their postings on social media sites.
And while many foreign fighters have been absorbed into established Syrian rebel groups, there are signs now that an increasing number are remaining in free-standing units that operate independently and are willing to clash with other rebels and Syrian communities to implement their own rigid vision of Islamist governance.
“The numbers are increasing, with more radical groups inside now,” said Salman Shaikh, director of the Brookings Institution’s Doha Center in Qatar.
Elizabeth O’Bagy, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War who just returned from a two-week research trip to study rebels inside Syria, said that “without a doubt” she saw far more foreign fighters than on her previous trip two months ago, including foreigner-only fighting groups in northern Idlib province, near the border with Turkey.
“There were substantial groups of foreign fighters that we came across, way more than I remembered,” O’Bagy said. “And we heard a lot of commanders complaining about foreign fighters coming in and not working with other opposition groups.”
...
Immediately after Nasrallah’s speech, Sunni clerics across the region issued a chorus of sectarian-tinged calls for men to head to Syria to help their Sunni brethren against the Shiite “Party of Satan” – a play on Hezbollah’s name, which means “Party of God” – and Assad’s minority Alawite sect.
The most prominent was Sheikh Youssef al Qaradawi, a Qatar-based cleric with a millions-strong following and close ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. News reports quoted him as telling a rally in Doha that “every Muslim trained to fight and capable of doing that” should make himself available for jihad against Assad and Hezbollah.
...
Charles Lister, an analyst at the Terrorism and Insurgency Center of IHS Jane’s, a defense research firm, said at least eight other clerics have issued similar appeals, and the impact can already be seen.
...