Turkiye’s ‘Blue Homeland’ reaches Syrian shores : A new flashpoint in the Eastern Med ?
▻https://thecradle.co/articles-id/30053
Où l’on voit pourquoi la Turquie et le Qatar aimaient tant les rebelles syriens...
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‘Blue Homeland’ arrives on the Syrian coast
The fall of the Syrian government on 8 December 2024 marked a major geopolitical inflection point in the region. Turkiye quickly moved to cement its influence, aligning with the new authorities in Damascus.
On 24 December, Turkiye’s Transport Minister Abdulkadir Oraloglu declared that Ankara intended to begin negotiations with Syria to demarcate maritime borders – stating that such an agreement could “change the entire balance” in the Eastern Mediterranean by enlarging the two states’ zones of influence in energy exploration.
Greek officials swiftly denounced the announcement, arguing that Turkiye lacks any legal standing to ink deals with what they view as a provisional and unrecognized Syrian authority. Athens framed the move as a direct challenge to its maritime sovereignty, particularly around Crete and Cyprus.
A Turkiye-Syria EEZ agreement could expand Ankara’s control by up to 1,500 square miles and significantly bolster its “Blue Homeland” doctrine – a maritime strategy that seeks to project Turkiye’s power across the Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean, and Black Seas.
This concept, originally articulated by retired Rear Admiral Cem Gurdeniz and further developed by Cihat Yayci, envisions Turkiye’s sovereignty over approximately 462,000 square kilometres of maritime space. Under this doctrine, Ankara contests Greek sovereignty over several Aegean islands, defends its Black Sea interests, and challenges Cypriot and Greek claims in the Mediterranean.
Despite longstanding ambitions – such as the shelved Turkiye-Qatari pipeline project blocked by ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in 2009 – Ankara’s core objective today is to establish control over Syria’s maritime zones. These lie adjacent to the restive Syrian coast, a region that has recently seen renewed violence and alleged ethnic cleansing under the new transitional authority.
While Turkiye’s direct role in these events remains unverified, Ankara’s overt support for the new government underscores its geopolitical calculus: securing the coast is essential for pushing through a maritime border agreement and ensuring its enforcement.
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Syria is becoming a central battleground in the contest over Eastern Mediterranean energy, with shifting power dynamics – especially along its coast – reshaping the regional balance.
While Israeli expansion in southern Syria continues to raise alarms in Ankara, Turkiye’s entrenchment in the north is viewed by Tel Aviv as a threat to its own regional interests. A Turkiye maritime accord with Syria’s new authorities would only sharpen this regional divide, raising the spectre of future confrontation.
Whether the Syrian theater fuels an eventual energy-driven conflict or becomes a platform for renewed diplomacy will depend on how deeply it becomes intertwined with the competing ambitions of the region’s major actors.
What remains certain is that the energy question in the Eastern Mediterranean is no longer just about pipelines and reserves—it is about control, influence, and the future shape of the region itself.