The governance paradox: why polycentric systems fail to mitigate urban vulnerability in the global south
▻https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/sustainable-cities/articles/10.3389/frsc.2026.1857403/full
The global reliance on Polycentric Governance (PCG) for climate adaptation in rapidly urbanizing coastal cities frequently fails to achieve transformative outcomes, a paradox this research addresses by identifying institutional friction as the core impediment. Using a mixed-methods approach in Semarang, Indonesia, we combined Q-methodology with Cellular Automata–Markov chain (CA-Markov) LULC modeling to relate institutional dynamics to physical land-use outcomes. The Q-methodology analysis of 58 key stakeholders revealed a deep institutional rift characterized by an Adaptation Tempo Dilemma and Trust Deficit, with stakeholders divided between advocates of transformative change and a prevailing preference for incremental adaptation. In parallel, the CA-Markov modeling documented the (…)