• Why Saudi Arabia is taking a risk by backing the Egyptian coup | David Hearst | Comment is free | theguardian.com

    Why has the kingdom, famed for its caution on the diplomatic stage, put all its eggs in one basket, which, considering the volatility in Egypt, remains fragile and unpredictable. Who knows which side in Egypt will prevail, and if that is so, why back the coup leader General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi so publicly ? Sisi thanked the kingdom in fulsome terms. He said that the Saudi intervention was unprecedented since the Yom Kippur 1973 war with Israel. Praise indeed.

    For Dr Maha Azzam, associate fellow of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House, the kingdom’s fire-breathing support for the coup comes as little surprise. Not only had they been astonished by Washington’s abandonment of the kingdom’s closest regional ally in Hosni Mubarak, a point they made very clear during his trial. They had seen him replaced, at the polls, by the Brotherhood, which challenged the kingdom’s claim to be the protector of Islam.

    Azzam said: “What they had was a lethal equation, democracy plus Islamism, albeit under the Muslim Brotherhood. That was a lethal concoction in undermining the kingdom’s own legitimacy in the long run. They know full well they do not want democracy, but to have another group representing Islam was intolerable.”

    King Abdullah has good reason to fear the Brotherhood, which has been getting unprecedented support in Saudi Arabia since the 3 July coup. Sympathy for Mohamed Morsi has filled Twitter feeds in the country. Support for Morsi on social media has its own emblem, a four-fingered salute, known as the sign of Rabaa.

    It is one thing to upset the middle class and the intelligentsia, but quite another to have the country’s religious scholars denounce you. A group of 56 of them did so, by issuing a statement describing the events of 3 July as “unquestionably a military coup and an unlawful and illicit criminal act”. The king has also been attacked in a sermon by a sheikh at the al-Masjid al-Nabawi mosque in Medina, Islam’s second holiest site.

    The royal family have responded to the campaign they are facing on social media by sacking a Kuwaiti TV preacher with Brotherhood links. Tareq al-Suwaidan, who has more than 1.9 million Twitter followers, was told that there is no place for those who carry deviant thoughts at the Al Resalah channel.

    But this is a dangerous strategy. As president, Morsi resisted calling his regional enemies out for the money and support they gave to Egyptian opposition politicians, parties and private television channels for good reason. Up to 2 million Egyptians are employed as guest workers in the kingdom and their remittances were important for an economy on its knees. He feared that the Saudis would kick them out if he accused them of undermining his presidency. However today, Egyptian ex-pats are not the Brotherhood’s problem or responsibility. What could well follow is an unrestrained campaign by its members to destabilise the Saudi and UAE regimes.

    Azzam said : “For the US and EU, there is very little grey area. Either you have authoritarian regimes, including Assad or you have the Arab spring. The authoritarian regimes are saying: ’If we use enough force, we can quell the tide of democracy.’ For Washington it means that there is no regional player that can now mediate with the Egyptian military. No one that can play the role of good cop.”

    The battles lines have now been clearly drawn throughout the Arab world. The military coup in Egypt, and Saudi support for it, represents an attempt to turn the clock back, to halt the wave of democratisation heralded by the toppling of Arab dictators. It is unlikely to be the final word or battle in what promises to be an epic struggle .

    • Topo similaire dans le Washington Post: Backing Egypt’s generals, Saudi Arabia promises to fill financial void

      That Saudi Arabia is prepared to confront Washington over the crisis is an indicator of how deeply Saudi leaders were unsettled by the prospect of the Muslim Brotherhood consolidating its hold over the Arab world’s most populous nation, analysts say.

      “It’s not about expansionism,” said Gamal Soltan, a professor of political science at the American University of Cairo. “The Saudis are doing these things out of fear rather than greed.”

      But at a time when many Arabs are growing queasy at the high human cost of the crackdown, “this is an enormous gamble for the king,” said Christopher Davidson, professor of Middle East history at Durham University in England. “Saudi Arabia is putting itself in direct confrontation with the Muslim Brotherhood, which has broad regional sympathy across the region.”

    • Ça m’embête de le dire, mais je ne trouve pas ces articles très convaincants. Je manque de temps à l’instant, mais en gros : ils continuent à se focaliser sur le « coup » (“The military coup in Egypt, and Saudi support for it…”), alors que, s’il n’y avait eu que le coup, les États-Unis ne l’ont pas condamné et les Européens avaient seulement demandé une transition rapide, un dialogue incluant blah blah.

      Du coup, les Séoudiens (et les Israéliens) ne sont pas « isolés » du tout parce qu’ils soutiennent le coup (j’insiste : tout le monde a soutenu le renversement de Morsi, il n’y avait qu’à voir l’enthousiasme des chaînes d’information continue occidentales le jour même). Ils risquent d’être isolés parce qu’ils ont sapé les tentatives étatsuniennes et européennes d’accord entre Frères et militaires, et parce qu’ils soutiennent le massacre de 900 personnes.

      Et c’est bien cette option de déclencher une répression sanglante inutile qui est la question centrale, celle qui pose des questions « diplomatiques » difficiles. Et je trouve que ces articles passent totalement à côté.

    • Les américains sont prostrés suite à la crise NSA, les européens attendent de savoir ce qu’ils ont le droit de faire ou pas et ne voient rien venir du côté des US.
      Du coup, les officines de sécurité des uns et des autres bossent fort avec les divers proxys pour que le système se perpétue... D’où ce côté « en roue libre » des différents acteurs au Moyen Orient, Arabie, Qatar, Israël, tous alliés occidentaux de longue date... et où les pires manies ne sont plus contrariées par une direction politique plus ou moins soucieuse des formes (is it legal ? no ? not yet ? wait... ok, it’s legal right now, a special and secret and legal congress has decided that it’s legal for now, for the past and for the futur...)... ... ...

    • @nidal, tu as le point de vue de quelqu’un qui maîtrise le sujet :) Si ces articles sur l’Arabie Saoudite te paraissent peu convaincants, ils ont tout de même le mérite de rappeler des éléments qui te semblent évidents, mais qu’il faut dire.
      Un peu comme lorsque dans quelques temps, on aura des preuves tangibles que c’était un coup préparé avant le 30 juin (il y a déjà des éléments dispos), et que certains diront « On le savait ». Certes, on peut savoir/pressentir/soupçonner des choses mais qu’est-ce que cela représente quand on n’a pas de preuve ?
      Enfin, je faisais aussi allusion à d’autres articles quand j’ai écrit que j’avais trouvé de bons papiers, dont celui sur les Frères et l’art.