Disease modelers project a rapidly rising toll from Ebola | Science/AAAS | News
▻http://news.sciencemag.org/health/2014/08/disease-modelers-project-rapidly-rising-toll-ebola
▻http://news.sciencemag.org/sites/default/files/styles/thumb_article_l/public/West_africa_log-c_science2.jpg?itok=l8gO2guf
Extrapolating existing trends, the number of the sick and dying mounts rapidly from the current toll—more than 3000 cases and 1500 deaths—to around 10,000 cases by September 24, and hundreds of thousands in the months after that. “The numbers are really scary,” he says—although he stresses that the model assumes control efforts aren’t stepped up. “We all hope to see this NOT happening,” Vespigani writes in an e-mail.
(lire l’article complet pour des détails sur les paramètres de modélisation et les espoirs de les modifier)