Endless Predictions of the Syrian Regime’s Collapse—Why Hasn’t It Happened? | Foreign Policy Journal
▻http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2015/07/06/endless-predictions-of-the-syrian-regimes-collapse-why-hasnt-i
BH: Why do such commentators and analysts consistently fail in their predictions on Syria?
KA: The so-called experts and analysts fail in their predictions because they think Syria was the same as Iraq, Yemen, Libya, Tunisia, and even Egypt. They failed to realize the ground realities of Syria and most experts have not even been to Syria. For instance, the same experts were defense advisers in Bosnia, Afghanistan, and Libya. They often begin their arguments by saying, ‘In Bosnia we did so and so.’ ‘In Afghanistan, we did the surge in the South.’ Really? If Afghanistan or Iraq are barometers for success, then one must look really hard in the mirror. Most strategic analysts are opportunists linked with media and defense companies who have vested interests and are definitely not bi-partisan. Without naming names, one of the key ‘experts’ was a DoD official who become the spokesperson for the Syrian National Council. How can an American defense official all of a sudden be a Syrian expert and spokesperson for the SNC? The only credible voices on Syria have been the late Patrick Seale, Henry Kissinger, Zbigniew Brzezinski and Joshua Landis.