• Assessment of epidemic projections using recent HIV survey data in South Africa: a validation analysis of ten mathematical models of HIV epidemiology in the antiretroviral therapy era - The Lancet Global Health

    Evidence before this study

    Many mathematical models have been developed to project the epidemiological and demographic effects of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on HIV epidemics and assess different policy options for the use of ART across sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere. However, testing of these predictions against external data had not been possible. With new data from a nationally representative household survey in South Africa, we have, for the first time, compared existing model projections with data about HIV prevalence, HIV incidence, and ART coverage.


    Implications of all the available evidence

    Our results suggest that existing projections for reductions in HIV incidence after the scale-up of ART might have been overly optimistic. Resources needed for future HIV treatment and prevention are probably greater than previously forecast.

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