• Le « Y » syrien : Damas-Alep, Homs-Lattaquié par Juan Cole.
    Un résumé à ma sauce : pour assurer sa viabilité, l’Etat syrien ne doit pas perdre le contrôle de la dorsale : Damas-Homs-Hama-Alep et de la côte. Sans quoi, les jeux sont faits. L’intervention russe a permis, en partie, à l’armée syrienne de reprendre le contrôle de ce Y.
    Top 5 Ways Putin has won big in Syria and why Europe is embracing him
    http://www.juancole.com/2016/01/top-5-ways-putin-has-won-big-in-syria-and-is-being-embraced-by-europe.html

    So what has the Russian air force accomplished?
    1. It allowed the reopening of the road from Hama to West Aleppo, ending the siege of that regime-held part of the city and pushing back the rebels from it.
    2. It retook most of Latakia Province, safeguarding the port. Yesterday came the news that the major northern al-Qaeda-held town of Rabia had fallen to the government forces, meaning that Latakia is nearly 100% in government control. These advances into northern Latakia involved hitting Turkmen proxies of Turkey, which is why Turkey shot down a Russian plane last fall. Likely the next step will be to take back cities in Idlib like Jisr al-Shughour, which fell last spring to an al-Qaeda-led coalition, and which could be used as a launching pad for the taking of Latakia port.
    3. It strengthened regime control of Hama and Homs, ensuring the supply routes south to Damascus.
    4. It hit the Army of Islam as well as al-Qaeda and Daesh around Damascus, forcing the latter two to withdraw from part of the capital and killing Zahran Alloush, leader of the Army of Islam.
    5. It hit al-Qaeda and FSA forces in Deraa Province and yesterday the key town of al-Sheikh Miskin fell to the Syrian Arab Army. This is a Deraa crossroads and its loss affects the rebels ability to maneuver in this province.