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  • Polar bears and climate change: What does the science say?
    https://www.carbonbrief.org/polar-bears-and-climate-change-what-does-the-science-say

    Overall, the #IUCN estimates the total number of polar bears at 26,000, with only a 5% chance that it’s less than 22,000 or more than 31,000. But given several polar bear subpopulations are still unaccounted for and there is high uncertainty about the numbers that do exist, scientists are wary of trying to pinpoint the absolute size of the global polar bear population.

    [...] Scientists’ best estimate is that there’s a 70% chance the global population of polar bears will fall by more than a third within the next three generations.

    According to IUCN criteria, this qualifies polar bears as “vulnerable”, reflecting the potential for large reductions in the global population as climate change and sea-ice loss continue.

    [...] The IUCN assessment doesn’t look at the extinction risk for polar bears over a time-span of longer than about 35 years – or three generations of polar bears. But without action to tackle climate change, it is likely that many polar beat subpopulations will cross “tipping points” over the next century if sea-ice loss continues as forecasted, says Cator.

    #ours_blanc #arctique #biodiversité #climat