A 3 °C global RCP8.5 emission trajectory cancels benefits of European emission reductions on air quality | Nature Communications
The benefits of European anthropogenic emission reductions would probably be annihilated over large regions of Europe with a global + 3 °C temperature increase, with #ozone background and maximum levels enhanced over Europe compared to the present day. This is due to global changes of climate and background atmospheric composition (with high methane concentrations associated with the RCP8.5 scenario). These results confirm that if European air quality is to be improved, global methane emissions should be regulated providing both positive effects on regional air quality but also on climate change7, 17. Also, the predicted CLE regional decrease for ozone precursors in the horizon 2050 remains crucial for European air quality, and particularly for the Southern European population. Over the Mediterranean Sea and adjacent areas, if current emissions were not reduced in a + 3 °C world under the RCP8.5 scenario, the number of ozone exceedance days could reach 100 per year. Considering the adverse effects of short-term exposure to daily ozone concentrations18, 19, this would strongly affect both human health and #vegetation.