Moon of Alabama à propos de la démission de Saad Hariri (en gros : grosse destabilisation du Liban, qui échouera et finira par renforcer intérêts russes et iraniens) :
The resignation of Hariri is intended to provoke a constitutional crisis in Lebanon and to prevent new parliament elections. The further Saudi plan is likely to evolve around these elements:
– The Trump administration will announce new sanctions against Hizbullah and against Lebanon in general.
– The Saudi government will slip some of its al-Qaeda/ISIS proxy fighters from Syria and Iraq into Lebanon (possibly via Turkey by sea). It will finance local Lebanese terror operations.
– There will be new assassination attempts, terror attacks and general rioting by Sunni extremist elements against Christians and Shia in Lebanon.
– The U.S. will try to press the Lebanese army into a war against Hizbullah.
– Israel will try to provoke and divert Hizbullah’s attention by new shenanigans at the Lebanese and Syrian border. It will NOT start a war.
The plan is unlikely to succeed:
– The Lebanese people as a whole have no interest in a new civil war.
– The Lebanese army will not get involved on any specific side but will try to keep everyone calm.
– Sanctions against Hizbullah will hit all of Lebanon, including Sunni interests.
– A new Sunni prime minister will be found and installed, replacing the resigned Saudi puppet.
– Russian and Iranian economic interests will find a new market in Lebanon. Russian companies will engage in Lebanese gas and oil extraction in the Mediterranean and replace U.S. involvement.
The miscalculated Saudi/U.S./Israeli plan against Hizbullah can be understood as a helpless tantrum after their defeat in Syria and Iraq.
Je vois qu’il y a déjà une traduction en français :