Trump Thinks He Is Winning the Trade War. The Data Tell a Different Story | Fortune
▻https://fortune.com/2019/08/16/trump-china-trade-war-winner-data
Meanwhile, China too has paid a price—albeit a smaller one. The IMF predicts GDP expansion of just 6.2% this year, the lowest number since 1990, and 6.0% in 2020. But instead of slapping one-size-fits-all tariffs across vast categories of goods, Xi Jinping is targeting only products the country can’t buy at comparable cost elsewhere. For example, China has imposed a 28% levy on 100% of the $13.9 billion in soybeans it used to buy from the U.S. because it can acquire them at about the same price from Brazil and Argentina. But it can’t find good substitutes for American-made aircraft, drugs, or cars, so China has kept tariffs on those products near pre–trade war levels. Duties on U.S. pharmaceuticals and planes remain below 3%.
At the same time, China has lowered tariffs on every other country. So in most categories, U.S. exporters now face higher tariffs and tougher competition from Canadian, European, and Japanese suppliers.
Crunch the numbers, and it’s hard to come to any other conclusion: In the trade war that will chart America’s economic future, China is winning.