• Research team determines #COVID-19 #infection_fatality_rate
    https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-team-covid-infection-fatality.html

    Le test sérologique utilisé a un taux de faux positif de 1%.

    In Gangelt, the IFR after the #SARS-CoV-2 outbreak is 0.37 percent," says lead investigator Prof. Dr. Hendrik Streeck, Director of the Institute for Virology at the University Hospital Bonn.

    Based on the #IFR and the number of deaths, estimations about the total number of infections in similar demographic areas with different infection rates can be made. Comparing this number with the number of officially reported infections leads to an estimate of unreported cases. In Gangelt, this figure is about 5 times higher than the official number of people tested positively. With an extrapolation based on 6,700 SARS-CoV-2 associated deaths in Germany, a total of 1.8 million infections can be assumed. This number of unreported cases is about 10 times higher than the officially reported cases (162,496 on May 3rd, 2020).

    #Allemagne #sérologie #séroprévalence #CFR

    • For the first time, our data enables us to estimate how many people have been infected after the superspreading event. Approximately 15 percent of Gangelt had been infected. The total number of infections allows us to determine the infection fatality rate. In Gangelt, the IFR after the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak is 0.37 percent,” says lead investigator Prof. Dr. Hendrik Streeck, Director of the Institute for Virology at the University Hospital Bonn.
      […]
      Preliminary studies showed that the ELISA test is false positive in about one percent of the cases. “However, with such high frequency of infections in Gangelt [ie, 15%], a one percent false positive rate is not critical,” Hartmann explains. For studies planned to take place across Germany with an estimated infection rate of approximately one to two percent a one percent false positive rate pose rather a problem.

      [puisque, selon la prévalence dans la population entre un tiers [pour un taux de 2%] et la moitié [taux de 1%] des positifs seraient de faux positifs]