Nidal

“You know what I did? I left troops to take the oil. I took the oil. The only troops I have are taking the oil, they’re protecting the oil. I took over the oil.”

  • Tout juste la semaine dernière, les autorités israéliennes menaçaient le Liban (une fois de plus) de représailles sur ses infrastructures. Israël est le pays qui a le droit absolu de menacer ses voisins de crimes de guerre contre leur population civile, avec une régularité d’horloge, sans que ça indigne grand monde. In dramatic policy shift, Israel to hold Lebanon accountable for Hezbollah attack
    https://www.israelhayom.com/2020/07/31/in-dramatic-policy-shift-israel-to-hold-lebanon-accountable-for-hezboll

    “If [Hezbollah] tries perpetrating another attack, we will see an unusual response from the IDF against [the organization] and the country of Lebanon,” the official said.

    IDF tanks on the border with Lebanon this week (Eyal Margolin /JINI)
    Israel’s unequivocal threat that Lebanon will bear responsibility for any Hezbollah attack is meant to foment pressure against the terrorist group at home. Following the Second Lebanon War in 2006 – in which Israel did not destroy government infrastructure – Israel has emphasized that it will also target Lebanon in any future conflict with Hezbollah. And while this threat has only generally applied to a broad conflict with Hezbollah, Thursday’s order marked the first time Israel has officially declared it will harm Lebanon even in response to an isolated-tactical attack.

    In recent years Israel has tried implementing this deterrence strategy in other sectors as well. Throughout the Syrian civil war, Syrian infrastructure was hit every time a terrorist attack emanated from Syrian territory. In Gaza, too, Israel targets Hamas when terrorist attacks are carried out by other groups.

    Now, for the first time, Israel is applying this deterrence policy to Lebanon. This is a dramatic policy shift because in previous rounds of fighting between the IDF and Hezbollah, Israel has avoided bombing Lebanese infrastructure. Although the current Lebanese government is extremely weak and is effectively controlled by Hezbollah, the expectation in Israel is that the coronavirus pandemic and country’s dire economic straits – combined with the fear that an Israeli offensive would be devastating – will provide the impetus for heavy pressure on Hezbollah to call off another attack.

    IDF officials on Thursday assessed that Hezbollah is determined to carry out a successful attack, but one that incurs a minimal risk of an escalation.

    “The coming days will be critical,” a senior IDF official said. “The IDF is on high alert for an attack” and ready to execute a harsh response.