Was ‘Beirut’ a Botched Act of Deterrence? — Russia in Global Affairs
▻https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/articles/beirut-botched-act
The ‘pattern’: The pattern from 2005 onwards is quite explicit: Repeated and ongoing attempts to ‘cancel’ Hizbullah. And today’s context, too, is plain: From the ongoing Israeli attacks into Syria, from the heightened pressures on Iraq, from the knee on the financial throat of Lebanon, and to the siege of Iran — everywhere, events speak to US and Israeli escalation in pursuit of weakening Hizballah and Iran. The appointment of Elliot Abrams is an additional, obvious signal. And to link this escalation to the fast-closing ‘window of opportunity’ in the run-up to the November US elections is an obvious connection for the ‘Axis of Resistance’ to make.
The point here is that, ‘the Axis’ is like a wiry, nimble boxer in the ring, facing a burly, hulking opponent: He will not let the heavier man land, a first mighty punch – else, taking an early blow, this might foreclose on his having the stamina to go the full eight rounds — by which time the wiry one will hope the hulk to have exhausted himself chasing around his dancing, taunting opponent. Hizbullah will not be Pavlovian: It understands provocation, and understands the American political timetable.
And so, back to Dr Rubin. Effectively he was writing that the September Abqaiq attack had exposed Israel’s lack of deterrence on the Iranian front – as well as what was already well-known on its northern front.
What to do? Was this act initially intended to send a message to Iran and Hizbullah that Israel still possesses deterrence, but that the messaging-act somehow was botched — and that the pressure blast radius from the explosion was not fully anticipated?
If instead, a solitary deep crater had appeared in the Beirut port, just out at sea, off Beirut, (without casualties, as was the case in Abqaiq), this would, of course, have constituted a very compelling message. Just speculation, naturally … As it is – irrespective of the findings – the explosion is a major geo-political event. Trump and Esper may be trying to distance the US from any potential fall-out, but can the US and Europeans really hold aloof, given the massive damage and casualties incurred? Killing Hizbullah fighters or “Shi’i militia” in Syria may be within the rules of the game, but destroying a third of Beirut, and killing and injuring thousands, is quite another.