Chise ( ♏️ / ENFJ / Senior Scientist / Vaccine Development / VPL•VRC•NIAID•NIH…)
Let’s discuss the leaked slides out of the CDC. There is a lot of misinformation circulating, and I would like to clear that up. If you haven’t already, please read my previous thread on the lack of clarity out of the CDC regarding their assertion that vaccinated individuals can transmit Delta variant due to similar viral loads as unvaccinated individuals because you’re going to want that context. Trust me.
So what are the main points? Delta variant is an issue (we know this) and yes it is contagious. It is more transmissible than other variants (again, we knew this too). Vaccines prevent a VAST majority of infections, transmission, and NEARLY all hospitalizations, deaths, so yes, if you have not been vaccinated yet, please consider doing so. You can see why here. Next, let’s discuss vaccine efficacy, which is actually
very encouraging because what we see here falls in line with data out of other countries. We are currently looking at ~88% effective against symptomatic infection and ~90-95% effective against severe disease in regards to Delta, which is fantastic. This is what we like to hear.
But Chise, what about post-vaccination infections? Can vaccinated individuals with a post-vaccination infection transmit? Well, yes. We knew this. I have discussed this many times before. If you have a symptomatic post-vaccination infection, you can transmit. At that point, after vaccination, it becomes like any other virus. If you are experiencing symptoms, isolate until your infection clears. You do when you have the flu, right? Same applies here. Now, let’s get on to the point I take a HUGE issue with this briefing. Viral loads.
To answer your burning question of: “Did the CDC partially base their assertion that vaccinated individuals can transmit Delta variant due to similar viral load as unvaccinated individuals on a study out of India that not only utilized models but accounted for vaccines that are not currently approved in the United States and is still currently under review and previously did not pass peer-review and didn’t even compare viral loads between unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals but rather viral loads between variants?” Yes, yes it did.
It also based decisions off smaller breakthroughs that have occurred that give us barely any information at all concerning mean Ct values between the vaccinated and unvaccinated. So why do I take issue with this? Because these are viral loads, NOT ACTUAL EVIDENCE OF TRANSMISSION.
You CANNOT make an assumption off this. Why? Because frankly I don’t care how much viral RNA is in your nose (which may I remind everyone is LIKELY virus that is NOT viable due to the vaccine) when we have actual clinical data showing just one dose of vaccine HALVES your risk of transmitting once you’re infected?! To make it sound as it vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals are transmitting as the same rate is MISLEADING. Saying vaccinated individuals are superspreaders is MISLEADING. And news outlets have taken this and ran with it to make it come off this way without dissecting the information. From previous we know viral load is not enough to say there is comparable infectiousness (yes, this matters). Duration of viral shedding is important, and we know this is likely to be shorter in vaccinated individuals as they clear an infection faster. In addition, vaccines prevent symptomatic illness caused by Delta and we know those who have an asymptomatic infection do indeed transmit less due to lower viral loads. To hammer this point home take this study for example. Where low Ct values (high viral loads)
Twitter only allows you to have so many tweets before it breaks the thread so I continued this in the screens below. Conclusion. If you haven’t been vaccinated (or have no immunity) please consider doing so. I am open to discussion and any questions.https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E7jN6DgXEAUk_rP.jpg https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E7jN6FLWYAMYs_U.jpg https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E7jN6HPWQAEPwHi.jpg https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E7jN6JaWYAU8vLp.jpg