Quantifying the real-life impacts of vaccination on critical COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2 vaccines have individual prophylaxis effects. However, quantifying the overall vaccine impact on critical COVID-19 forms is difficult because it requires accounting for the reduction in community spread. Using a transmission model validated with hospital data, we investigated counterfactual scenarios with variable vaccine effects. We estimate a transmissibility reduction from vaccine breakthrough infections of 43% ([32 — 55]% 95%-likelihood interval) and that 39,100 critical care stays ([26,100 — 57,100] 95% confidence interval) and 47,400 ([36,200-62,800]) hospital deaths were prevented by the French vaccination campaign by August 20 2021, i.e. a 46% and 57% relative prevention of these outcomes. Despite the greater effectiveness of individual prophylaxis, the largest prevention of critical COVID-19 forms originated from the collective component of vaccine protection. These results are consistent with trends we identify in worldwide data and point towards a community benefit of achieving high vaccine coverages.
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