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  • The new dotcom crash: collapsing ad markets threaten disaster for Big Tech - New Statesman

    Illustration by Anna Higgie

    On Thursday 3 February Meta Platforms, the company that owns Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, lost more than a quarter of a trillion dollars in market value — the largest one-day drop in history. Mark Zuckerberg, whose personal wealth fell by more than $30bn in a single day, appeared red-eyed and shaken (he claimed to have scratched his cornea) in a call with employees, whom he urged to concentrate on new products.

    The plunge was caused by an earnings report in which Facebook acknowledged that its daily users had begun to decline. Zuckerberg’s story is that this doesn’t matter in the long run, because Meta will replace the social media platforms of today with the internet of tomorrow: the metaverse. But for the technology author and researcher Tim Hwang, it points to a deeper crisis in the way internet companies make money — one that could have serious implications not just for Facebook, but for all of the tech giants and for the financial markets that have ballooned on their progress for more than a decade.

    It quickly became apparent, however, that the web would only grow at massive, world-changing speed if websites were free to use — and that the only people who were going to pay for that growth would be advertisers. This gave Google a problem to solve: an individual website could simply put a car ad on a page about cars, as newspapers and magazines had done for centuries. By 2005, however, Google was serving more than 100 billion searches a year on more than 64 million websites. The question was, “How do you deliver a relevant ad to someone, when on a given day someone might search for anything on Google?”

    When Facebook arrived in the mid-Noughties it had a similar problem, says Hwang. “How do you deliver millions, if not billions, of ads to lots and lots of different people looking for different things on the web?”

    Much has been written about the incentives this system has created for disinformation, populism and polarisation. For Hwang, however, the real question is: “What if this waterfall of money that we’ve discovered on the internet is actually not sustainable?”

    Hwang maintains there are good reasons to suspect that it isn’t. “The closer that you look at it, the more it appears that there’s large segments of this marketplace which are faulty — in effect, kind of a scam.”

    Swathes of internet traffic are useless to advertisers. More than a third of web-page views are from machines, and roughly a third of human web traffic is ad-free, thanks to ad blocking. The criteria for what the industry considers an “impression” are fantastically accommodating — an ad is considered viewable if half of it has been on screen for one second — but studies suggest that less than half of ads meet them.

    “We’ve been sold a vision,” Hwang says, “for a very long time that this system, on a fundamental level, really works.” But the effectiveness of programmatic advertising, and the amount advertisers will pay for an impression or a click, has been falling, forcing Big Tech to undermine its own products as they “force more and more ads into an experience, or into a social media channel, in order to make the same amount of money… and that has the perverse effect of squeezing people away from those platforms”.

    For Hwang, the real danger of these policies is not that they will stop ads from working, but that companies will lose access to tracking data “and it turns out the ads are pretty much as effective as they always were”. If Big Tech forfeits its powers to track and target, what should companies do — lose access to hundreds of millions of affluent EU consumers, or admit that the technology behind the multi-trillion-dollar industry of surveillance capitalism is about as effective as an ad in the local paper? “That,” Hwang said, “might really pop the bubble.”

    A second dotcom crash would not be confined to a handful of companies. Big Tech has been the driving force behind the longest bull run in history, a ten-year boom in innovation. By 2020 the five largest companies in the US were tech companies — Facebook, Apple, Tesla, Amazon and Microsoft — and accounted for 37 per cent of stock market returns.

    Big Tech’s rising tide has not only created a long boom in stocks but innovation across the global economy. “The advertising ecosystem has ended up subsidising a lot of things that we don’t really think about as connected,” from the growing AI industry to entertainment and journalism. “We have delegated so much basic R&D to these companies. For example, the progress of self-driving cars is almost entirely funded through advertising.”

    Forget the dotcom bubble. Could this be as big as the 2008 financial crash? Hwang accepts that Big Tech, inflated as it is, doesn’t compare in size to the mortgage market that brought down the global economy 14 years ago. But he feels the comparison is still valid: something obscure and complicated is about to become systemically important. In 2008, he says, “you had this financial asset… that we didn’t really think much about… but as soon as that market downturns it had these ripple effects throughout the economy”.

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