BigGrizzly

Groumpf

  • Cornelius Roemer sur Twitter : “With 11 days more data, it is becoming quite clear that BQ.1.1 will drive a variant wave in Europe and North America before the end of November Its relative share has kept more than doubling every week It has taken just 19 days to grow 8-fold from 5 sequences to 200 sequences 1/ https://t.co/NUpzCplcZB” / Twitter
    https://twitter.com/CorneliusRoemer/status/1576716682512388096

    With 11 days more data, it is becoming quite clear that BQ.1.1 will drive a variant wave in Europe and North America before the end of November
    Its relative share has kept more than doubling every week
    It has taken just 19 days to grow 8-fold from 5 sequences to 200 sequences 1/

    A week ago, @TWenseleers
    estimated a growth advantage of ~14% per day for BQ.1 over BA.5
    This may be a slight overestimate. But note this was for BQ.1 not BQ.1.1 which has a few extra % pts
    Evidence quite strong that BQ.1.1 will have >10%/day advantage. 2/

    For comparison:
    Alpha had ~7%/day growth advantage
    Delta had ~11%/day over Alpha
    BA.1 Omicron had ~20-25%/day over Delta
    BA.2 had ~11%/day over BA.1
    BA.4/5 had ~11%/day over BA.2
    Looks like BQ.1.1 is less drastic than Omicron vs Delta but comparable to Delta, BA.2 & BA.4/5 waves

    On se posait la question ces jours. BA.4.6 ou BA.2.75 ? Et surprise, ça sera peut-être bien plutôt BQ.1.1 !

    • En France, on est peinard, on s’est crevé les deux yeux pour ne rien voir.
      La nièce, arrivée des USA mercredi, +++ samedi.
      Sa mère, une hache dans la tête ce matin  : TAG demain…
      Pour la 43 987e fois, tout le monde admet que j’avais raison et que ce voyage était une idée de merde. Puis, on va passer au 43 988e nawak avec des arguments claqués au sol.
      Ma fatigue est stratosphérique.