Cornelius Roemer sur Twitter : “With 11 days more data, it is becoming quite clear that BQ.1.1 will drive a variant wave in Europe and North America before the end of November Its relative share has kept more than doubling every week It has taken just 19 days to grow 8-fold from 5 sequences to 200 sequences 1/ ▻https://t.co/NUpzCplcZB” / Twitter
▻https://twitter.com/CorneliusRoemer/status/1576716682512388096
With 11 days more data, it is becoming quite clear that BQ.1.1 will drive a variant wave in Europe and North America before the end of November
Its relative share has kept more than doubling every week
It has taken just 19 days to grow 8-fold from 5 sequences to 200 sequences 1/
A week ago, @TWenseleers
estimated a growth advantage of ~14% per day for BQ.1 over BA.5
This may be a slight overestimate. But note this was for BQ.1 not BQ.1.1 which has a few extra % pts
Evidence quite strong that BQ.1.1 will have >10%/day advantage. 2/
For comparison:
Alpha had ~7%/day growth advantage
Delta had ~11%/day over Alpha
BA.1 Omicron had ~20-25%/day over Delta
BA.2 had ~11%/day over BA.1
BA.4/5 had ~11%/day over BA.2
Looks like BQ.1.1 is less drastic than Omicron vs Delta but comparable to Delta, BA.2 & BA.4/5 waves
On se posait la question ces jours. BA.4.6 ou BA.2.75 ? Et surprise, ça sera peut-être bien plutôt BQ.1.1 !