Do civilian casualties cause counterinsurgents to fail ?
▻https://warisboring.com/do-civilian-casualties-cause-counterinsurgents-to-fail #war #guerre #COIN #contre_insurrection #counterinsurgency
“All four studies that argue insurgent leaders make the decision on which side to support find that civilian killings had no substantial effect on outcomes.
However, the six studies that assume “civilian agency” in war produces mixed conclusions. Kocher and colleagues, Lyall and colleagues, and Condra and Shapiro find that civilian deaths are bad for counterinsurgents.
However, Lyall’s 2009 study of Russian artillery strikes in Chechnya finds that civilian deaths are actually helpful. However, his 2010 study of Russian/Chechen sweeping operations during the same war finds that intentional killings are only helpful for co-ethnic counterinsurgents and detrimental for foreign troops.
Finally, Kalyvas’ study on Germany’s recruitment efforts during the occupation of Greece finds that civilian killings had no real effect on outcomes.”