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    The pandemic’s shadow harvest - Will the economic and psychological costs of covid-19 increase suicides? | International | The Economist
    ▻https://www.economist.com/international/2020/10/05/will-the-economic-and-psychological-costs-of-covid-19-increase-suicides

    It is too early to say, but the signs are ominous

    WHEN AMERICA’S Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) carried out a survey this summer, it found that one in ten of the 5,400 respondents had seriously considered suicide in the previous month—about twice as many who had thought of taking their lives in 2018. For young adults, aged 18 to 24, the proportion was an astonishing one in four.

    The survey, published in August, was one of a growing number of warnings about the toll that the pandemic is taking on the mental health of people. For legions, the coronavirus has upended or outright eliminated work, schooling and religious services. On top of that, lockdowns and other types of social distancing have aggravated loneliness and depression for many.

    But are people acting on suicidal thoughts? It is too early to be sure. Almost all countries publish suicide statistics with a lag of a year or two; and in recent years, suicide has been declining in most, with America a notable exception. Information from police, hospitals, coroners, courts and others must be collected and carefully studied, in part because some families report events selectively, or untruthfully, in the hope that a loved one’s probable suicide will be ruled a natural or accidental death. A comprehensive picture of suicide in the time of covid-19 has therefore yet to emerge. But experts have reasons to fear the worst.

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  • @simplicissimus
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    A covid-struck, confused and polarised poll - Donald Trump is very likely to challenge the results of the US election | Briefing | The Economist
    ▻https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/09/03/donald-trump-is-very-likely-to-challenge-the-results-of-the-us-election

    If he does so it will be bad, quite possibly very bad indeed

    Outre les perspectives de contestation, une longue description des nombreux problèmes d’un processus électoral sous-financé et objet d’une lutte ouverte et farouche pour compliquer l’accès aux votes de celles et ceux sensés mal voter…

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  • @etraces
    e-traces ART LIBRE

    Relevant content - Twitter’s algorithm does not seem to silence conservatives
    ▻https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/08/01/twitters-algorithm-does-not-seem-to-silence-conservatives

    The platform’s recommendation engine appears to favour inflammatory tweets SINCE LAUNCHING a policy on “misleading information” in May, Twitter has clashed with President Donald Trump. When he described mail-in ballots as “substantially fraudulent”, the platform told users to “get the facts” and linked to articles that proved otherwise. After Mr Trump threatened looters with death—“when the looting starts, the shooting starts”—Twitter said his tweet broke its rules against “glorifying violence”. On (...)

    #manipulation #algorithme #Twitter #violence #extrême-droite

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  • @tony_rublon
    CEPED-MIGRINTER-IC MIGRATIONS-Moyen-Orient

    The Middle East is fighting a second wave of covid-19 - The economist

    ACROSS THE Middle East months of closures are giving way to an almost carefree normal. Bars and restaurants in Tel Aviv are packed, with barely a nod to social distancing. Shisha cafés in Jordan’s capital, Amman, among the first businesses shut in March because of their perceived health risks, are full of patrons puffing away. Mask-wearing in Beirut has noticeably dropped since the government imposed a $33 fine for going barefaced. From Tehran to Tunis, many people seem to have declared the covid-19 pandemic finished.

    But the pandemic is not finished with them. Several countries have seen, if not yet a second wave, at least a worrying resurgence of cases. Infections and deaths have jumped in Iran, where authorities thought they had tamed one of the world’s worst outbreaks. Schools have become a vector for infection in Israel.

    #Covid-19#Moyen-Orient#Rapport#Seconde_vague#Santé#économie#migrant#migration

    ▻https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/06/13/the-middle-east-is-fighting-a-second-wave-of-covid-19

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  • @antonin1
    Antonin CC BY-NC-SA
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    @jurisquetout
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      A new study shows that SARS-CoV-2 can linger in the air for hours and on some materials for days

      AT A TIME when many people have taken to washing hands and sanitising the objects they hold dear—frequently—a pesky question has loomed. How long does the SARS-CoV-2 virus stick around? A new paper in the New England Journal of Medicine, one of the first to examine the lifespan of the virus on common surfaces, offers some answers.
      Like the common cold, covid-19 spreads through virus-laden droplets of moisture released when an infected person coughs, sneezes or merely exhales. A team of researchers, including scientists from America’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, simulated how an infected individual might spread the virus in the air and on plastic, cardboard, stainless steel and copper. They then measured how long the virus remained infectious in those environments.

      They found that SARS-CoV-2 stays more stable on plastic and steel than on cardboard or copper. Traces of the virus were detected on plastic and steel up to three days after contamination. SARS-CoV-2 survived on cardboard for up to one day. On copper, the most hostile surface tested, it lasted just four hours (see chart). In the air, the team found that the virus can stick around for at least three hours. In the air, as elsewhere, the virus’s ability to infect people diminished sharply over time. In the air, for instance, its estimated median half-life—the time it takes for half of the virus particles to become inactive—was just over an hour. And the levels of the virus that do remain in the air are not high enough to pose a risk to most people who are not in the immediate vicinity of an infected person.

      These findings are likely to assuage some fears. Homebound consumers worried about contagion from cardboard delivery boxes may have less to worry about the next time Amazon rings (unless they are used to same-day delivery). At the same time, the findings will amplify concerns about airborne transmission, which some experts had not considered possible. The research may change the way medical workers interact with infected patients, who with close contact may transmit the virus onto protective gear.

      Why the virus can survive longer on some surfaces rather than others still remains something of a mystery. Maybe it has to do with the consistency of the object playing host to the virus. Cardboard, of course, is much more porous than steel, plastic or copper. But the authors noted that there was more variation in their experiment for cardboard than for other surfaces, and the results should be interpreted with caution. No doubt consumers are used to treating their surroundings that way by now.

      ►https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973

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    • @jurisquetout
      jurisquetout

      “Sacrifice the weak”, urged a sign at a protest against Tennessee’s lockdown on April 20th—though whether the person holding it was trolling the other protesters is unknown. Some claim social distancing is pointless, since covid-19’s elderly victims would soon have died of other causes. In Britain many pundits have said that two-thirds of the country’s dead were already within a year of passing away. They cite an estimate made in March by Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London who advises the government.

      Mr Ferguson notes that two-thirds was the upper bound of his estimate, and that the real fraction could be much lower. He says it is “very hard” to measure how ill covid-19’s victims were before catching it, and how long they might have lived otherwise. However, a study by researchers from a group of Scottish universities has attempted to do so. They found that the years of life lost (ylls) for the average Briton or Italian who passed away was probably around 11, meaning that few of covid-19’s victims would have died soon otherwise.

      First the authors analysed data for 6,801 Italian victims, grouped by age and sex for confidentiality. About 40% of men were older than 80, as were 60% of women. (The virus has killed fewer women than men, perhaps because they have different immune responses.) The authors excluded the 1% of victims under 50. Then they calculated how much longer these cohorts would normally survive. Life expectancies for old people are surprisingly high, even when they have underlying conditions, because many of the unhealthiest have already passed away. For example, an average Italian 80-year-old will reach 90. The ylls from this method were 11.5 for Italian men and 10.9 for women.

      Then the authors accounted for other illnesses the victims had, in case they were unusually frail for their age. For 710 Italians, they could see how many had a specific long-term condition, such as hypertension or cancer. The authors used a smaller Scottish sample to estimate how often each combination of diseases occurs among covid-19 victims. Finally, they analysed data for 850,000 Welsh people, to predict how long somebody with a given age and set of conditions would normally live.

      Strikingly, the study shows that in this hybrid European model, people killed by covid-19 had only slightly higher rates of underlying illness than everyone else their age. When the authors adjusted for pre-existing conditions and then simulated deaths using normal Italian life expectancies, the ylls dropped just a little, to 11.1 for men and 10.2 for women. (They were slightly lower for Britons.) Fully 20% of the dead were reasonably healthy people in their 50s and 60s, who were expected to live for another 25 years on average.

      The researchers warn that their data exclude people who died in care homes, who might have been especially sickly. Nor can they account for the severity of underlying illnesses. For example, covid-19 victims might have had particularly acute lung or heart conditions. More complete data could produce a lower estimate of ylls. Mr Ferguson also points out that tallies of all-cause mortality will contain clues. If the pandemic has merely hastened imminent deaths, there should be fewer than usual once covid-19 is under control.

      Still, the available evidence suggests that many covid-19 victims were far from death’s door previously, and cut down at least a decade before their time. Allowing the virus to spread freely would sacrifice the strong as well as the weak. ■

      Sources: “Covid-19 – exploring the implications of long-term condition type and extent of multimorbidity on years of life lost: a modelling study”, by P Hanlon, F Chadwick, A Shah et al., 2020; Istituto Superiore di Sanità (Italy); SAIL Databank (Wales); Public Health Scotland
      This article appeared in the Graphic detail section of the print edition under the headline “Before their time”

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  • @albertocampiphoto
    albertocampiphoto CC BY-NC-SA
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    Water torture - If China won’t build fewer dams, it could at least share information | Leaders | The Economist
    ▻https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/05/14/if-china-wont-build-fewer-dams-it-could-at-least-share-information

    If China won’t build fewer dams, it could at least share information

    Its secrecy means that farmers and fisherman in downstream countries cannot plan
    Leaders
    May 14th 2020 edition
    May 14th 2020

    RIVERS FLOW downhill, which in much of Asia means they start on the Tibetan plateau before cascading away to the east, west and south. Those steep descents provide the ideal setting for hydropower projects. And since Tibet is part of China, Chinese engineers have been making the most of that potential. They have built big dams not only on rivers like the Yellow and the Yangzi, which flow across China to the Pacific, but also on others, like the Brahmaputra and the #Mekong, which pass through several more countries on their way to the sea.

    China has every right to do so. Countries lucky enough to control the sources of big rivers often make use of the water for hydropower or irrigation before it sloshes away across a border. Their neighbours downstream, however, are naturally twitchy. If the countries nearest the source suck up too much of the flow, or even simply stop silt flowing down or fish swimming up by building dams, the consequences in the lower reaches of the river can be grim: parched crops, collapsed fisheries, salty farmland. In the best cases, the various riparian countries sign treaties setting out ho

    #chine #barrage #eau @cdb_77

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  • @simplicissimus
    Simplicissimus
    @freakonometrics

    Free exchange - How to think about moral hazard during a pandemic | Finance and economics | The Economist
    ▻https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/04/25/how-to-think-about-moral-hazard-during-a-pandemic

    https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20200425_FND000_1.jpg

    Economists are rightly relaxed about the risks for now

    Covid-19 confronts humanity with a host of testing moral decisions. When hospital capacity is limited, which patients should get access to life-saving equipment? For how long should virus-limiting restrictions on public activity remain in place, given the immense cost of such measures? To this list, some add another: how generous should public assistance to struggling households and firms be, when such aid could encourage the abuse of state-provided safety-nets? Worries like these, concerning what social scientists call #moral_hazard, have been relatively muted during the pandemic, and appropriately so. But hard questions about risk and responsibility cannot be put off for ever.

    #risque #aléa_moral et #pandémie, mais aussi #changement_climatique

    ping @freakonometrics

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  • @thomas_lacroix
    CEPED-MIGRINTER-IC MIGRATIONS-MFO-Monde

    Covid in the camps - Migrant workers in cramped Gulf dorms fear infection | Middle East and Africa | The Economist
    #Covid-19#Qatar#Golfe#travail#migrant#migration

    ▻https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/04/23/migrant-workers-in-cramped-gulf-dorms-fear-infection

    https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20200425_MAP002_0.jpg

    FOR WELL-OFF foreigners in Qatar, as in other Gulf states, social distancing is almost a way of life. Comfortable salaries pay for suburban villas or seaside flats; private cars are ubiquitous. For the labourers who make up the bulk of Qatar’s 2.8m people, though, it is all but impossible. In the Industrial Area, a working-class district south-west of Doha, the capital, some residents sleep eight to a room, with scores of men sharing bathrooms and kitchens. Such living conditions are the perfect environment for a virus to spread.

    The six members of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) acted early to contain the novel coronavirus. By mid-March most had begun to impose restrictions on movement and travel. But after weeks of slow growth, new cases are rising quickly. Confirmed infections in Saudi Arabia more than doubled in the week from April 14th. Qatar has more cases than Ukraine, which is 16 times more populous. Although GCC governments do not release data on the nationalities of those infected, anecdotal evidence suggests that the virus is spreading fastest among labourers.

    Qatar has received most attention. On March 11th it reported 238 cases of the virus in a single residential compound in the Industrial Area, home to more than 360,000 people. It sealed off dozens of streets, an area of nine square kilometres (3.5 square miles). Workers, put on leave, were allowed out only to buy food or other essentials.

    State media in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which have been in a diplomatic spat with Qatar since 2017, enthusiastically covered the outbreak as proof of Qatari callousness. But the situation is the same in other Gulf states. The Saudi health ministry said on April 5th that 53% of confirmed cases involved foreigners. The share is probably higher now: migrants account for about four in five recent cases. The holy city of Mecca, with a large population of foreigners, has more confirmed infections than Riyadh, a city three times the size. Doctors in the UAE report a similar trend among migrants.

    Governments have taken some laudable steps. Testing is free for labourers, and health ministries have been serious about expanding it. Qatar has carried out 70,000 tests. The UAE is doing more than 25,000 a day. Most countries have also pledged to pay for covid-19 treatment regardless of the patient’s nationality. But they have done far less about the teeming environments in which millions of migrants live and work.

    Almost everything in Dubai is closed. Anyone leaving home must apply for a permit granted for a few essential purposes. Only one family member may travel; speed cameras on the highways are used to catch outlaws. Construction workers are exempted from the lockdown, however. They pile onto buses to and from job sites. Contractors have limited the number of passengers, but it is hard to keep two metres apart. Workers on Qatar’s football World Cup stadiums and Dubai’s World Expo facilities have been diagnosed with the virus.

    Other workers have the opposite problem. Entire sectors of the economy, from hospitality to retail, are closed. Thousands of employees have already been dismissed or furloughed. Their numbers will grow: migrants are the first to lose their jobs during a downturn. The IMF’s latest forecast is a 2% contraction in Saudi Arabia this year and 4% in Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE. It was released before the recent meltdown in oil markets, so even those numbers may prove too rosy. Charities are already answering calls from migrants who struggle to afford food.

    Gulf states would like to send the newly unemployed home. But their home countries are not always eager to take back (and quarantine) thousands of jobless citizens. India, which supplies millions of workers to the Gulf, went into lockdown on March 25th and halted all commercial flights. It says it cannot bring back all its citizens until the measures end, no earlier than May 3rd. The UAE’s labour ministry has threatened to limit the number of future work visas for countries that “have not been responsive” about repatriating their citizens. Ethiopia is quietly grumbling about a wave of deportations from Saudi Arabia.

    State media have tried to downplay any discrimination. One gauzy ad from the UAE tells foreigners that they are part of a “family” of 10m. But some prominent figures have denounced migrants as a vector for disease. Hayat al-Fahad, a Kuwaiti actress, said in a television interview that the country was “fed up” with the foreigners who make up two-thirds of the population and suggested putting them in the desert. An Emirati social-media personality defended her comments by explaining that she only meant Asian labourers: “Do you expect that we…equate a Bengali worker with an Egyptian worker? God forbid!” (Many Gulf citizens criticised both their remarks.)

    The social contract in the GCC has always been transactional. Foreigners are paid more than they would earn in their home countries. Even unskilled labourers toiling in the heat make enough to send back remittances. In return they accept a state of permanent transience. Residency is tied to employment: no matter how long you work in the Gulf, you will probably have to leave once you cease being useful. Even wealthy expats are being reminded that they are outsiders. Many of those who happened to be travelling when the lockdown began now cannot get back to their homes in Qatar or Dubai. Some are separated from spouses or parents. Far from bringing people together, the virus underscores how far apart they are. ■

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  • @etraces
    e-traces ART LIBRE

    A pandemic of power grabs - Autocrats see opportunity in disaster | Leaders | The Economist
    ▻https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/04/23/autocrats-see-opportunity-in-disaster?fsrc=newsletter

    The world is distracted and the public need saving. It is a strongman’s dream ALL THE world’s attention is on covid-19. Perhaps it was a coincidence that China chose this moment to tighten its control around disputed reefs in the South China Sea, arrest the most prominent democrats in Hong Kong and tear a hole in Hong Kong’s Basic Law (see article). But perhaps not. Rulers everywhere have realised that now is the perfect time to do outrageous things, safe in the knowledge that the rest of the (...)

    #activisme #surveillance #santé #pauvreté #COVID-19 #domination #manipulation #journalisme #censure (...)

    ##santé ##pauvreté ##algorithme

    https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20200425_LDD002_0.jpg

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  • @simplicissimus
    Simplicissimus

    The Economist this week – Highlights from the latest issue
    ▻https://view.e.economist.com/?qs=848ca2a68e4e79b600b07cf246fb78a9cd6ffb2fdc33acd04444d68722bf3f

    We have two covers this week.

    https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/print-cover-full/print-covers/20200425_ceu1280.jpg

    In our Asian and European editions, we look at a pandemic power grab. All the world’s attention is on covid-19. Perhaps it was a coincidence that China chose this moment to arrest the most prominent democrats in Hong Kong. More likely, as with autocrats and would-be autocrats all around the world, it spied an unprecedented opportunity. This is an emergency like no other. Governments need extra tools to cope with it. No fewer than 84 have enacted emergency laws vesting extra authority in the executive. In some cases these powers are necessary to fight the pandemic and will be relinquished when it is over. But in many cases they are not, and won’t be. Unscrupulous autocrats are exploiting the pandemic to do what they always do: grab power at the expense of the people they govern.

    https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/print-cover-full/print-covers/20200425_cna1280.jpg

    In our American and British editions we analyse the looming problem of government debt. As the economy falls into ruins, governments are writing millions of cheques to households and firms. At the same time tax revenues are collapsing. America’s government is set to run a deficit of 15% of GDP this year. Across the rich world, the IMF says gross government debt will rise by $6trn, to $66trn at the end of this year, from 105% of GDP to 122%. Long after the covid-19 wards have emptied, countries will be living with the consequences. What should they do?

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  • @etraces
    e-traces ART LIBRE

    Regulating the internet giants - The world’s most valuable resource is no longer oil, but data | Leaders | The Economist
    ▻https://www.economist.com/leaders/2017/05/06/the-worlds-most-valuable-resource-is-no-longer-oil-but-data

    The data economy demands a new approach to antitrust rules A NEW commodity spawns a lucrative, fast-growing industry, prompting antitrust regulators to step in to restrain those who control its flow. A century ago, the resource in question was oil. Now similar concerns are being raised by the giants that deal in data, the oil of the digital era. These titans—Alphabet (Google’s parent company), Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft—look unstoppable. They are the five most valuable listed firms (...)

    #Alphabet #publicité #marketing #consommation #BigData #prédiction #métadonnées #géolocalisation #smartphone #Aadhaar #algorithme #WhatsApp #Facebook #Amazon #GE_Capital #Tesla #Nokia_Siemens #Microsoft #Google (...)

    ##publicité ##Apple

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  • @simplicissimus
    Simplicissimus

    Thanking big brother - China’s post-covid propaganda push | China | The Economist
    ▻https://www.economist.com/china/2020/04/16/chinas-post-covid-propaganda-push

    https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/20200418_CNP002.jpg

    хвала брате си
    Louange au frère Xi
    (pas trouvé d’indication d’origine de la photo)
    EDIT : photo prise à Belgrade

    juste les images…

    https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/1394/85/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20200418_CNC256_0.png

    Net contributions to the UN regular budget

    https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/1394/85/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20200418_CNC259_0.png

    Chinese loans to Africa, $bn

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  • @simplicissimus
    Simplicissimus
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    @touti
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    Daily Chart - China’s data reveal a puzzling link between covid-19 cases and political events | Graphic detail | The Economist
    ▻https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/07/chinas-data-reveal-a-puzzling-link-between-covid-19-cases-and-political-e

    https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/20200411_WOC100.png

    Erratic infection numbers raise questions about the accuracy of the country’s statistics

    EVER SINCE the new coronavirus started to spread beyond China’s borders, the country’s official tally of infections has served as a grim benchmark for the outbreaks that followed. On March 26th the count in China was surpassed by that in America, now the centre of the pandemic. Since then China’s total, now close to 83,000, has also been overtaken by those of Italy, Spain, Germany and France.

    But there is growing suspicion that China’s official statistics on the covid-19 pandemic cannot be trusted. On March 24th China’s prime minister, Li Keqiang, came close to admitting that the numbers had been miscounted when he warned officials that “there must be no concealing or under-reporting.” Classified reports to Congress from American intelligence agencies have concluded that the numbers of both cases and deaths from the disease in China are much higher than the official government figures would suggest.

    Such scepticism may be deserved. An analysis by The Economist of data reported by China’s National Health Commission reveals two peculiar features. First, the data are volatile. Across the nine Chinese provinces with serious outbreaks, we identified 15 episodes in which new cases of covid-19 jumped by more than 20% in a single day, before quickly returning to earlier levels. Although such spikes can occur in any dataset—because of erratic record-keeping, for example—we found that other countries and regions with covid-19 outbreaks, of a similar size to these provinces, have experienced fewer. Second, when spikes occur, they are often accompanied by important decisions by government officials. Of the 15 such episodes observed in the data, two-thirds appeared to occur within a day of the sacking of a provincial official or other significant political event.

    Take Hubei, the province hit hardest by covid-19. On February 9th the region reported a 27% increase in new infections. On the next two days, new cases declined by 20% and 22%, respectively. Then on February 12th they surged by a whopping 742% to almost 14,000, before immediately falling back sharply. Chinese authorities say the spike was caused by revisions to the government’s methodology for counting cases. But these changes were introduced nearly a week earlier and were reversed seven days after the spike (see chart). An alternative explanation for the surge in new cases on February 12th was another event, announced the next day: the sacking of the party chiefs of both Hubei and its capital city, Wuhan.

    Other spikes in new covid-19 cases have also coincided with changes in personnel or policy announcements. On January 27th officials in Zhejiang province held a press conference detailing the opening of 335 clinics and a 1,000-bed hospital to accommodate a surge of patients. The next day, new cases nearly tripled to 123, before declining sharply in the next few days. On February 20th authorities in Shandong province sacked the chief of the provincial justice department. That same day new covid-19 cases at a local prison jumped from two to 200, and then immediately returned to two the next day.

    Although most of these episodes occurred independently of one another, we identified one day when cases jumped in several places. On February 3rd every Chinese province with a sizeable outbreak of covid-19—at least 50 new infections per day—suffered a big increase in new cases (the mean was 35%). This was the only day during the epidemic on which this happened. One possible explanation came two weeks later, when it was revealed that on the same day President Xi Jinping, in a speech to the Standing Committee of the Politburo, had called on authorities battling the virus to “face up to existing problems” and “release authoritative information in a timely manner”.

    Do these data prove that China manipulated its covid-19 data, or that the country’s official tally of cases and deaths is lower than it should be? No. But the unusual spikes in new cases, and the curious way their timing matches political developments, are bound to raise questions about their accuracy.

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  • @simplicissimus
    Simplicissimus

    Daily chart - Will the coronavirus lockdown lead to a baby boom? | Graphic detail | The Economist
    ▻https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/03/will-the-coronavirus-lockdown-lead-to-a-baby-boom

    https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/20200404_WOC053.png

    Deadly epidemics seem to depress birth rates in the short term

    AS PEOPLE around the world distance themselves from one another to slow the spread of covid-19, many couples under lockdown find themselves closer than ever. The opportunity has not been lost on Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president. In a television appearance last month, Mr Zelensky, like most other world leaders, asked citizens to stay at home. He then called on his compatriots to take advantage of the enforced intimacy to boost the country’s shrinking population: by making babies.

    The notion that the world may witness a coronavirus “baby boom” in nine months time is not as far-fetched as it may seem. Such predictions are common after disasters, particularly those in which citizens are ordered to shelter in place. Extreme weather events are a prime example: spikes in births were anticipated after Hurricane Sandy (2013), snowstorms in New York state (2015) and hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria (2017). A paper published in 2008 found that hurricanes and tropical storms are indeed associated with increased birth rates after nine months.

    Simplicissimus
    • @simplicissimus
      Simplicissimus

      Le papier (librement accessible, très technique, pas UN graphique pour représenter l’effet…)
      The fertility effect of catastrophe : U.S. hurricane births
      ▻http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/hu/fertility_jpope2010.pdf

      Abstract Anecdotal evidence has suggested increased fertility rates resulting from catastrophic events in an area. In this paper, we measure this fertility effect using storm advisory data and fertility data for the Atlantic and Gulf- coast counties of the USA. We find that low-severity storm advisories are associated with a positive and significant fertility effect and that high-severity advisories have a significant negative fertility effect. As the type of advisory goes from least severe to most severe, the fertility effect of the specific advisory type decreases monotonically from positive to negative. We also find some other interesting demographic effects.

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  • @simplicissimus
    Simplicissimus
    5
    @kassem
    @ericw
    @mad_meg
    @biggrizzly
    @touti
    5

    ’Sailors do not need to die,’ warns captain of coronavirus-hit U.S. aircraft carrier - Reuters
    ▻https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-navy-idUSKBN21I2SV

    https://s2.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20200331&t=2&i=1510699154&w=1200&r=LYNXMPEG2U243#.jpg

    The captain of the U.S. aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt, in a blunt letter, has called on Navy leadership for stronger measures to save the lives of his sailors and stop the spread of the coronavirus aboard the huge ship.

    The four-page letter, the contents of which were confirmed by U.S. officials to Reuters on Tuesday, described a bleak situation onboard the nuclear-powered carrier as more sailors test positive for the virus.

    The Navy puts the ship’s complement at 5,000, the equivalent of a small American town.

    The letter was first reported by the San Francisco Chronicle.

    Captain Brett Crozier, the ship’s commanding officer, wrote that the carrier lacked enough quarantine and isolation facilities and warned the current strategy would slow but fail to eradicate the highly contagious respiratory virus.

    In the letter dated Monday, he called for “decisive action” and removing over 4,000 sailors from the ship and isolating them. Along with the ship’s crew, naval aviators and others serve aboard the Roosevelt.

    “We are not at war. Sailors do not need to die. If we do not act now, we are failing to properly take care of our most trusted asset - our sailors,” Crozier wrote.

    U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters that nearly 80 people aboard the ship had tested positive for the coronavirus, a number likely to increase as all personnel on the ship are tested.

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    • @kassem
      Kassem CC BY-NC-SA

       » Mais l’#honneur de la marine nationale étant en jeu... »| Euronews
      ▻https://fr.euronews.com/2020/04/02/en-infectant-le-porte-avions-roosevelt-le-coronavirus-affaiblit-la-puis

      https://static.euronews.com/articles/stories/04/60/43/60/1000x563_cmsv2_a3778fb7-2aec-52b1-8d9b-5f5d09c1ea6b-4604360.jpg

      Mais l’honneur de la marine nationale étant en jeu, le ministre américain de la Défense, Mark Esper, refusant toute évacuation, avait aussitôt rétorqué :

      « Nous avons une mission : notre mission est de protéger les Etats-Unis et notre peuple (...) Nous vivons dans des quartiers étroits, que ce soit à bord d’un porte-avions, d’un sous-marin, d’un char ou d’un bombardier, c’est comme ça ! »

      #etats-unis

      Kassem CC BY-NC-SA
    • @kassem
      Kassem CC BY-NC-SA

      Navy relieves captain who raised alarm about coronavirus outbreak on aircraft carrier
      ▻https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/navy-expected-relieve-captain-who-raised-alarm-about-covid-19-n1175351

      https://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/newscms/2020_13/3284881/200326-uss-theodore-roosevelt-ew-203p_3917c8607fff625be0c3fb29084acd20.jpg

      Capt. Brett Crozier, who commands the Roosevelt, an aircraft carrier with a crew of nearly 5,000, was relieved of his command on Thursday, but he will keep his rank and remain in the Navy.

      On ne tue pas comme en Chine, on laisse les gens se suicider.

      Kassem CC BY-NC-SA
    • @kassem
      Kassem CC BY-NC-SA

      Le commandant du Roosevelt limogé après avoir alerté sur la COVID-19 à bord
      ▻https://www.lapresse.ca/international/etats-unis/202004/02/01-5267704-le-commandant-du-roosevelt-limoge-apres-avoir-alerte-sur-la-covi

      https://mobile-img.lpcdn.ca/lpca/924x/r3996/1b501ca6/2587f4ba-752a-11ea-b33c-02fe89184577.jpg

      Le secrétaire à l’US Navy a souligné que ce n’était pas le fait que le commandant du porte-avions ait lancé une alerte qui méritait son limogeage, mais le fait qu’il ait envoyé un courriel aussi alarmiste au commandement régional avec une trentaine de personnes en copie.

      C’est ce qui a apparemment permis que la lettre soit parvenue au San Francisco Chronicle, a-t-il ajouté sans accuser directement le commandant de l’avoir fait fuiter lui-même.

      Kassem CC BY-NC-SA
    • @simplicissimus
      Simplicissimus

      Exclusive: Navy probe to decide future of fired U.S. carrier commander - Reuters
      ▻https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-navy-exclusive-idUSKBN21L28Q

      https://s4.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20200403&t=2&i=1512009741&w=1200&r=LYNXMPEG321JX#.jpg

      Reuters

      Even as he is hailed as a hero by his crew, the fired commander of a coronavirus-stricken U.S. aircraft carrier is being reassigned while investigators consider whether he should face disciplinary action, acting U.S. Navy Secretary Thomas Modly told Reuters on Friday.

      Captain Brett Crozier was relieved of his command of the Theodore Roosevelt on Thursday after a scathing letter in which he called on the Navy for stronger action to halt the spread of the virus aboard the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier was leaked to the media.

      Modly said in an interview that the letter was shared too widely and leaked before even he could see it.

      But the backlash to Modly’s decision to fire Crozier has been intense. In videos posted online, sailors on the Theodore Roosevelt applauded Crozier and hailed him as a hero, out to defend his crew - even at great personal cost to his career.

      “And that’s how you send out one of the greatest captains you ever had,” exclaimed one sailor in a video post, amid thunderous applause and cheering for Crozier as he left the carrier and its 5,000 crew members in Guam.

      Modly did not suggest that Crozier’s career was over, saying he thought everyone deserved a chance at “redemption.”

      “He’ll get reassigned, he’s not thrown out of the Navy,” Modly said.

      But Modly said he did not know if Crozier would face disciplinary action, telling Reuters it would be up to a probe that will look into issues surrounding “communications” and the chain of command that led to the incident.

      “I’m not going to direct them to do anything (other) than to investigate the facts to the best of their ability. I cannot exercise undue command influence over that investigation,” he said. Crozier’s firing has become a lightning-rod political issue at a time when the Trump administration is facing intense criticism over its handling of a coronavirus outbreak that has killed more than 6,000 people across the country, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University.

      Democratic presidential front-runner Joe Biden accused the Trump administration of poor judgment and said Modly “shot the messenger.”

      A group of prominent Democratic senators formally requested on Friday that the Pentagon’s independent Inspector General investigate the firing.

      The dismissal, two days after the captain’s letter leaked, demonstrated how the coronavirus has challenged all manner of U.S. institutions, even those accustomed to dangerous and complex missions such as the military.

      Crozier’s removal could have a chilling effect on others in the Navy seeking to draw attention to difficulties surrounding coronavirus outbreaks at a time when the Pentagon is withholding some detailed data about infections to avoid undermining the perception of U.S. military readiness for a crisis or conflict.

      Reuters first reported last week that the U.S. armed forces would start keeping from the public some data about infections within its ranks.

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    • @simplicissimus
      Simplicissimus
      @dedefensa

      Le commandant Crozier est positif au covid-19…
      … suivi du détail des tensions internes à la Maison Blanche et avec les forces armées autour de cette affaire.
      (Trump veut la peau de Crozier, Crozier a le soutien de la quasi-totalité de ce qui porte un uniforme…)

      Fired aircraft carrier commander has COVID-19 - World Socialist Web Site
      ▻https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/04/06/mili-a06.html

      The aircraft carrier commander who urged the evacuation of his ship because of widespread COVID-19 infection has himself tested positive for coronavirus, it was reported Sunday afternoon.
      […]
      Another columnist with close ties to the military, onetime Iraq War cheerleader Max Boot, wrote a scathing denunciation of the firing of Crozier from the standpoint of aggrieved military officers.
      “The damage that was done to the military by Trump’s decision to pardon suspected war criminals will be compounded by Thursday’s decision to fire the skipper of the Theodore Roosevelt,” he wrote. “The message that the administration is sending to the armed forces is that committing war crimes is acceptable but telling the truth and protecting the personnel under your command is not.”

      war crimes : référence à l’affaire E. Gallagher, peu évoquée sur ST p. ex. ►https://seenthis.net/messages/820749

      via @dedefensa ▻https://seenthis.net/messages/839605

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    • @simplicissimus
      Simplicissimus

      Le 6 avril, le secrétaire à la marine (par intérim) déblatère sur le réseau de communication interne du porte-avions en critiquant et se moquant du commandant Crozier…
      (décidément, ils font tout ce qu’il faut pour se retrouver enduits de goudrons et de plumes #tar_and_feathers)

      Suit une description de l’état de la marine états-unienne rappelant les abordages récents où l’on apprend que sur l’un des bâtiments (non nommé) les canonniers ne sont pas capables de savoir où ils tirent…

      Seasickness - Covid-19 takes out a warship. The US Navy shoots the messenger | United States | The Economist
      ▻https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/04/06/covid-19-takes-out-a-warship-the-us-navy-shoots-the-messenger

      HUNDREDS OF CHEERING sailors thronged the cavernous belly of the USS Theodore Roosevelt, a 100,000-tonne nuclear-powered aircraft-carrier, crowding around neatly parked jets. “Captain Crozier! Captain Crozier!” they chanted, as the commanding officer, Brett Crozier, walked forlornly down the gangway into a warm Guam evening on April 3rd, bidding farewell to his warship. “Now that’s how you send out one of the greatest captains you ever had,” remarked a sailor in the crowd. The result is the latest civil-military calamity of the Trump administration.

      In mid-March the Roosevelt was exercising in the South China Sea, fresh from a visit to Vietnam. Then covid-19 struck. On March 24th three infected sailors were flown off. Three days later the ship docked in Guam, with at least 23 cases. From there, on March 30th, as the virus raged through a crew of over 5,000, Captain Crozier sent an imploring four-page letter to his colleagues. The spread of the disease was “ongoing and accelerating”, he warned. The warship’s confined spaces did not allow for effective quarantine. “We are not at war,” he urged. “Sailors do not need to die.”

      At first navy leaders expressed support, insisting that Captain Crozier would not face retaliation for sounding the alarm. A day later he was removed. Thomas Modly, America’s acting secretary of the navy, offered a jumble of reasons. The captain had “undermined the chain of command” and “created...panic on the ship” by copying 20-30 people on his letter. He had created “the perception that the Navy is not on the job, the government’s not on the job.” And he might also have “emboldened our adversaries to seek advantage”.

      Then, in an intemperate and rambling speech aboard the Roosevelt on April 6th, Mr Modly told its crew that Captain Crozier had either deliberately leaked the letter to the media, or was “too naive or too stupid to be a commanding officer”. Mr Modly mockingly called the captain—who remains a serving officer—a “martyr” and accused him of “betrayal”. He complained that “it’s now become a big controversy in Washington, DC” and told sailors, who are supposed to remain non-partisan, that “the media has an agenda”.

      Mr Modly’s remarks, which were piped over the ship’s intercom and, ironically, promptly leaked to the media, were met with incredulity on the ship. They came a day after Captain Crozier was reported to have tested positive for covid-19 and reinforced the sense that his offence was to have embarrassed the administration rather than violated protocol or undermined readiness. The decision “smacks of politics rather than military discipline,” says Jim Golby, an expert on civil-military relations and a serving army officer. “It’s notable that the military officers in the chain of command appear to have recommended against his removal.”

      Even before this episode, it was clear that America’s globe-girdling navy was not in tip-top shape. In January the Pentagon’s Inspector General scrutinised a dozen destroyers and found deficiencies with training. In one case it concluded that “the ship will not be able to conduct gunnery support”—including trifling matters “such as identifying where the ship is shooting”. That came on top of several troubled years for the navy.

      Shoddy seamanship in the Seventh Fleet, based in Japan, resulted in two warship collisions that killed 17 people in 2017. “The navy selectively punished people,” says a former admiral. “The people at the very top who made the most egregious decisions got promoted or moved to new jobs.” The Seventh Fleet was also rocked by a separate corruption scandal, leading to reprimands for at least ten captains and admirals, and the first-ever conviction of a serving admiral for a federal crime.

      The fleet is also ageing: 57% of ships are more than 20 years old. Crumbling shipyards and the relentless pace of operations have made it harder to maintain them. The navy is also short of more than 6,000 sailors—with recruitment, retention and morale unlikely to be helped by the sacking of officers who stand up for sick sailors. “Without increased and sustained funding...the readiness of the Navy’s fleet will remain compromised,” concluded a report by the Heritage Foundation, a think-tank, last year.

      Then came covid-19. Though the Pentagon has stopped publishing infection numbers for individual ships, the disease has spread on several vessels. Cramped quarters on board make social distancing impractical. “It is a Petri dish of virus,” says a former carrier strike group commander. Sailors aboard the USS Ronald Reagan, a carrier moored in Japan, have also tested positive. That does not mean America’s fleet would be paralysed in a crisis—warships can lose much of their crew and remain viable in wartime—but it may keep many in port.

      Mr Modly himself is only in charge of the navy because of the last mess. In November his predecessor, Richard Spencer, was fired after resisting what he called Donald Trump’s “shocking and unprecedented intervention” in the case of a Navy Seal who had been accused of war crimes. In a parting letter to the president, Mr Spencer said that this meddling had put at risk “good order and discipline”. War crimes, it turns out, can be smoothed over. Causing a stir in Washington is another matter.■

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    • @simplicissimus
      Simplicissimus

      Bon, c’est bien ce qu’a dit Thomas Modly, mais il pense (et a toujours pensé) le contraire…

      Navy chief apologizes for slamming carrier captain as ’naive’ and ’stupid’ - SFChronicle.com
      ▻https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Navy-chief-blasts-air-carrier-captain-as-too-15181872.php

      https://s.hdnux.com/photos/01/11/37/44/19265844/7/rawImage.jpg

      Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images 2019

      Acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly denounced the former commanding officer of the aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt Monday as either “too naive or too stupid” to be at the helm, according to a recording of the speech to the ship’s crew obtained by The Chronicle.

      Then, after a daylong torrent of criticism over the recorded remarks that included congressional calls for his resignation, Modly flip-flopped and apologized Monday night.

      “Let me be clear, I do not think Captain Brett Crozier is naive nor stupid. I think, and always believed him to be the opposite,” Modly said in a statement. He apologized to the Navy, Crozier, “his family, and the entire crew of the Theodore Roosevelt for any pain my remarks may have caused.”

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    • @simplicissimus
      Simplicissimus

      Le secrétaire à la marine (par intérim) Modly est viré…
      … pardon, démissionne.

      ’I own it :’ U.S. Navy secretary resigns over handling of coronavirus-hit carrier - Reuters
      ▻https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-navy-idUSKBN21P333

      Acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly resigned on Tuesday after he faced mounting backlash for firing and ridiculing the commander of a U.S. aircraft carrier who pleaded for help stemming a coronavirus outbreak onboard.

      Modly’s resignation highlighted the U.S. military’s struggle to meet increasingly competing priorities: maintaining readiness for conflict and safeguarding servicemembers as the virus spreads globally.

      The episode deepened upheaval in Navy leadership. The Navy’s last secretary was fired in November over his handling of the case of a Navy SEAL convicted of battlefield misconduct. The Navy SEAL had won the support of President Donald Trump.

      U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper announced Modly’s resignation on Twitter, saying the Navy’s top civilian had “resigned of his own accord.” Trump concurred, saying it was a selfless act and adding he had nothing to do with it.

      “The whole thing was … very unfortunate,” Trump said at the White House.

      Modly’s resignation occurred only after mounting pressure from Congress and a backlash from the crew, and followed Trump’s own suggestion on Monday that he might get involved in the crisis — saying the Navy captain whom Modly fired was also a good man.

      “I briefed President Trump after my conversation with Secretary Modly,” Esper said, as he named an Army Undersecretary Jim McPherson to replace Modly as acting Navy secretary.

      In a note to sailors, Modly said he took responsibility for events over the past few days.

      “It is not just missiles that can take us down, words can do it too, if we aren’t careful with how and when we use them,” Modly said.

      “It’s my fault. I own it.”

      Captain Brett Crozier, whom Modly relieved of command last week, favored more dramatic steps to safeguard his sailors aboard the Theodore Roosevelt in a four-page letter that leaked to the public last week.

      When Modly fired him over the leak, his crew hailed Crozier as a hero and gave him a rousing sendoff captured on video, apparently upsetting Modly and leading the Navy’s top civilian to fly to Guam to castigate the captain in a speech to the crew on Monday.

      Modly questioned Crozier’s character, saying at one point he was either “stupid” or “naive.” After audio of his speech leaked, including expletives, Modly initially stood by his remarks. But later, at Esper’s request, he issued an apology.

      Trump appeared to take Modly’s side, saying Crozier had erred with the letter.

      “The captain should not have written a letter. He didn’t have to be Ernest Hemingway. He made a mistake, but he had a bad day,” Trump told a news briefing.

      ‘NOBODY IS GOING TO FORGET’
      But the apology was not enough to satisfy critics, who were calling for his resignation.

      U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi added her voice to calls for Modly’s removal.

      “Sadly, Acting Secretary Modly’s actions and words demonstrate his failure to prioritize the force protection of our troops,” Pelosi said in a statement.

      A fellow Democrat, House Armed Services Committee Chairman Adam Smith, had already called for Modly’s removal.

      Modly’s apology also did little to mollify the crew on the carrier.

      “He said what he said and nobody is going to forget it,” a sailor on the carrier told Reuters.

      Modly made the trip to Guam against the advice of his aides, doubling down on his decision to fire Crozier despite warnings that his trip might make the situation worse.

      As of Tuesday, 230 of about 5,000 personnel on the Theodore Roosevelt have tested positive for the coronavirus. Navy officials say that sailors on a number of other ships have tested positive too.

      The crisis is the biggest facing Navy leadership since two crashes in the Asia Pacific region in 2017 that killed 17 sailors. Those incidents raised questions about Navy training and the pace of operations, prompting a congressional hearing and the removal of a number of officers.

      The Republican who leads the Senate Armed Service Committee, Senator Jim Inhofe, said he was concerned about the turmoil in the Navy.

      “In this difficult time, the Navy needs leaders now more than ever who can provide continuity and steady, insightful leadership,” he said.

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    • @simplicissimus
      Simplicissimus

      Premier mort du Theodore Roosevelt

      U.S. sailor from coronavirus-hit aircraft carrier dies after contracting virus - Reuters
      ▻https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-navy-idUSKCN21V19F
      ▻https://s4.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20200413&t=2&i=1514898832&w=1200&r=LYNXNPEG3C0XW

      A U.S. Navy sailor died on Monday after contracting the coronavirus, marking the first death of a sailor assigned to the coronavirus-stricken aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt.
      […]
      So far, about 585 sailors aboard the nuclear-powered carrier have tested positive for the coronavirus. About 4,000 sailors have been moved from the carrier to facilities in Guam, where the ship has been docked after the number of cases started increasing.
      […]
      This marks the first death of a sailor in the Navy, which so far has had almost 900 sailors test positive for the virus. The sailor is also the first active-duty U.S. service member to die from the virus.

      A U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that four additional sailors from the carrier had been taken to the hospital to be monitored. The officials said the sailors were in stable condition.

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  • @etraces
    e-traces ART LIBRE

    A crystal ball for the NHS - Palantir, a data firm loved by spooks, teams up with Britain’s health service | Britain | The Economist
    ▻https://www.economist.com/britain/2020/03/26/palantir-a-data-firm-loved-by-spooks-teams-up-with-britains-health-servic

    The contract to help stem covid-19 will cause a stir. But if the work is done in the open, it could be a boon PALANTIR TAKES its name from crystal ball-like artefacts in the “Lord of the Rings” novels. The secretive Silicon Valley data-analysis company is used to working with governments. It carries out vital-but-dull digital plumbing for the most sensitive sorts of data—those collected by spy and security agencies. It merges datasets, cleans them and plugs holes, and provides tools which (...)

    #Fujitsu #Oracle #Palantir #CIA #algorithme #BigData #santé #NHS

    ##santé

    https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/20200328_BRP506.jpg

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    e-traces ART LIBRE
    1
    @erratic
    1

    Creating the coronopticon - Countries are using apps and data networks to keep tabs on the pandemic | Briefing | The Economist
    ▻https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/03/26/countries-are-using-apps-and-data-networks-to-keep-tabs-on-the-pandemic?f

    And also, in the process, their citizens HAVING BEEN quarantined at his parents’ house in the Hebei province in northern China for a month, Elvis Liu arrived back home in Hong Kong on February 23rd. Border officials told him to add their office’s number to his WhatsApp contacts and to fix the app’s location-sharing setting to “always on”, which would let them see where his phone was at all times. They then told him to get home within two hours, close the door and stay there for two weeks. His (...)

    #ByteDance #Deutsche_Telekom #Google #ShinBet #Tencent #Facebook #GoogleMaps #WeChat #WhatsApp #algorithme #Alipay #Android #Bluetooth #QRcode #smartphone #TraceTogether #géolocalisation #BigData #santé (...)

    ##santé ##surveillance
    ▻https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20200328_FBD001_0.jpg

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  • @thibnton
    tbn PUBLIC DOMAIN

    America’s nightmare - Bernie Sanders, nominee | The Economist
    ▻https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/02/27/bernie-sanders-nominee

    https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20200229_LDD002_0.jpg

    (…) If Mr Sanders becomes the Democratic nominee, America will have to choose in November between a corrupt, divisive, right-wing populist, who scorns the rule of law and the constitution, and a sanctimonious, divisive, left-wing populist, who blames a cabal of billionaires and businesses for everything that is wrong with the world. All this when the country is as peaceful and prosperous as at any time in its history. It is hard to think of a worse choice. Wake up, America!

    tbn PUBLIC DOMAIN
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