Is Bahrain Next?
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As their counterparts in North Africa did, in these early days Bahrainis are facing a vicious attempt by state security forces to crush them. The violent gambit is a pathetic one, but it is also coldly calculated. And there are several reasons to think it may work. The most important is the nature of police and military power and its role in domestic politics. Where the Tunisian and Egyptian armies proved the ultimate power brokers in the revolutions there, there is no military to save the day in Bahrain. The means of violence are wholly controlled by the state and its security forces. The latter are thoroughly beholden to the royal family and not just willing, but eager to do its bidding. Where the Egyptian army was viewed by many Egyptians as a reflection of Egyptian society, the Bahraini domestic security apparatus is composed almost entirely of foreign mercenaries brought in to serve and destroy precisely because they have no local sympathies. There is no counterpart to the domestic security force, no alternative center of power that can challenge it or its masters. It has no rival. Bahrainis will have to endure the worst the police can mete out in order to carry the day.