Saudi Arabia has no Lebanon endgame in sight - and it’s bound to backfire - Middle East News

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  • Saudi Arabia has no Lebanon endgame in sight - and it’s bound to backfire - Middle East News - Haaretz.com
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    But solely economic pressure may not be enough to force a change in government. According to the Lebanese constitution, the appointment of a prime minister is in the hands of the president, and current President Michel Aoun is an ally of Hezbollah. Tradition has always dictated that the prime minister’s appointment requires consultation with and agreement between all the sides. So even if the Hariri family and the Future Movement agree to bow to the Saudi pressure, Hezbollah and its allies in the government and the parliament can still stymie the appointment of Bahaa Hariri and trap Lebanon in a political and economic dead end.

    It is not clear what Saudi Arabia would gain from such a stalemate, particularly when Lebanese public opinion has begun to turn to outrage over the crude and unprecedented intervention in the country’s internal affairs. It is possible the kingdom is betting that the economic pressure will force Hezbollah to give up its political strongholds, damaging Iranian interests in the process, but at the same time Iran can replace Saudi Arabia as Lebanon’s economic sponsor and compensate for the economic damage caused by the Saudis.

    Saudi hints at a military option against Lebanon – hints that Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah has already used to declare that a military alliance exists between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and Israel will be the one who attacks Lebanon – cannot really impress anyone. The opening of another front in Lebanon, in addition to the failed war Saudi Arabia is running in Yemen, is a nightmare for the international community, too.

    Does Saudi Arabia have any endgame in mind for the process it has started in Lebanon? If it does, it has hidden it quite well.

    #arabie_saoudite #Liban