The Pulse of the Middle East

http://www.al-monitor.com

  • Will Iran’s most popular general enter politics?
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/06/qassem-soleimani-politics-iran-president-election.html#ixzz4BabEnQHb

    Since being one of the signatories to the letter warning Reformist Khatami in 1999 about the direction of the country, Soleimani has mostly stayed out of the politics. During the February parliament elections, Soleimani, while not explicitly endorsing traditional conservative candidate Ali Larijani, praised the parliament speaker just four days before the election. During the 2013 presidential election, Soleimani was believed to have supported conservative candidate Ghalibaf. At the time, the head of IRGC public relations was caught in a minor controversy when the Iranian media reported that he denied Soleimani’s endorsement. He later clarified that he never spoke about Soleimani but that the IRGC would not be endorsing a candidate.

    Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/06/qassem-soleimani-politics-iran-president-election.html#ixzz4BhKbEuGf

  • Le régime avance rapidement sur Da’ich et progresse chaque jour sur la route de Tabqa, base militaire stratégique dont ils ne sont plus qu’à 20km, dans la province de Raqqa (route Ithryah-Raqqa) : :


    Dans le même temps ses forces et celles de ses alliés ne cessent de reculer au sud d’Alep et d’y enchaîner les défaites face aux joyeux lurons de Jaych al-Fatah (route Ithryah-Alep)
    Cette double dynamique ne pourra pas durer éternellement et il n’y a pas de doute que l’on doit en discuter actuellement alors que les ministres de la défense syrien, russe et iranien sont réunis à Téhéran :
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/06/iran-syria-russia-defense-minister-tehran.html

  • Syria civil war: The message from Moscow
    http://www.aljazeera.com/blogs/middleeast/2016/06/syria-civil-war-message-moscow-nusra-160604163154005.html

    Russia has sent three messages over the past week or so about the situation in Syria.

    First, the al-Qaeda-linked al-Nusra Front is to be blamed for violating and jeopardising the truce.

    “The Nusra terrorist group is active in Aleppo and Idlib today and it is the main obstacle for the further extension of the cessation of hostilities,” the defence ministry said, accusing the group of exploiting the truce to rearm and regroup. 

    Second, the US is to be blamed for failing to separate the “moderate opposition units they control from terrorists. That is why further postponing by our American partners in that effort doesn’t only discredit the so called moderate opposition but leads to undermining the peace process”.

    Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned the deadline to back away from al-Nusra will expire this week.

    And third, the Turkey border is still being used to smuggle weapons to “terrorists” in Syria.

    “The number of heavy trucks moving from the Turkish-Syrian borders to the region of Azaz (Aleppo province) …and to the region of Darat Izza (Idlib province) has increased significantly,” the defence ministry said.

    • Russia to ’actively’ back Syria army around Aleppo
      http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2016/Jun-06/355603-russia-to-actively-back-syria-army-around-aleppo.ashx

      Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov vowed to “actively support” Syrian troops from the air around Aleppo Monday, after a weekend of fierce fighting left dozens dead in the divided city.

      Speaking in Moscow, Lavrov said Russia has waited long enough for Syria’s moderate opposition to leave areas controlled by extremist groups, and that air raids by Russia should “not be a surprise.”

      “What is happening in Aleppo and around it now, we warned the Americans about this in advance, and they know that we will be actively supporting the Syrian army from the air to prevent terrorists from seizing territory,” he told a press conference.

      Washington “is asking us and Syrian leadership to delay airstrikes” until opposition forces are separated from extremists of ISIS and Al-Qaeda-linked Nusra Front, he said.

      “We believe there has been more than enough time” for that, he said.

      “Everyone who has not left the terrorists now only have themselves to blame.”

      Et en version originale : Лавров : Россия будет активно помогать Сирии с воздуха
      http://rg.ru/2016/06/06/lavrov-rossiia-budet-aktivno-pomogat-sirii-s-vozduha.html

      Россия будет активно поддерживать с воздуха действия сирийской армии под Алеппо, чтобы не допустить захвата террористами территорий, заявил глава МИД РФ Сергей Лавров.

      «Что касается происходящего сейчас в Алеппо и вокруг него, и об этом заранее предупреждали американцев, мы будем самым активным образом поддерживать с воздуха сирийскую армию для того, чтобы не допустить захвата террористами территорий», - отметил Лавров.

      При этом министр подчеркнул, что Москва рассчитывает на честное сотрудничество с партнерами. В то же время Лавров отметил, что «те, кто не отмежевался от террористов, должны пенять на себя».

      «США не выполняют взятые на себя обязательства отмежевать лояльные им оппозиционные отряды от позиции»Джабхат ан-Нусры" (запрещена в РФ - «РГ») и прочих террористов, - сказал Лавров. - Не будучи способными это сделать, американцы ссылаются на то, что позиции хороших и плохих оппозиционеров перемешаны и просят нас и сирийское руководство повременить с ударами с воздуха".

  • Will Hamas abandon political Islam?
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/06/ennahda-decision-separate-religion-from-politics-tunisia.html

    Saleh al-Raqab, the former minister of religious affairs and endowments in the Hamas government and a prominent Sharia scholar, told Al-Monitor, “To evaluate Ennahda’s decision designed to separate politics from preaching, we must know the truth behind this step. If the movement means to separate religion and the state, it is catastrophic. But if this is just a matter of procedure, then it is possible. When Hamas ruled between 2007 and 2014, it decided that none of its ministers would be a member of its political bureau. But Ennahda’s decision is clearly due to the developments of the Muslim Brotherhood’s experience in Egypt and the subsequent Western pressure. It seems that Ennahda had to take this decision, not out of political conviction or intellectual progress. But Western states are not naive, and they will not believe that Ennahda’s decision came out of real progress rather than a tactical measure to overcome the pressure. The West wants them to give up everything ultimately.”

    A European diplomatic source commented on condition of anonymity on the latest Ennahda developments, saying that Ennahda’s decision to separate religious from political action was due to the lack of political meetings regarding cultural and religious issues. According to the source, Ennahda is obsessed with convincing the West that it is not the same as the Muslim Brotherhood.

    Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/06/ennahda-decision-separate-religion-from-politics-tunisia.html#ixzz4AexUY

  • Are Hamas, Egypt nearing reconciliation?
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/06/abu-zuhri-interview-al-monitor-hamas-egypt-ties.html

    However, the Hamas delegation’s March 12 visit to Cairo may have brought back some hope that a new page of bilateral relations between the two parties will be opened. In a May 17 statement by its spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri, Hamas welcomed the recent Egyptian statements about reconciliation with the movement and confirmed its readiness to deal with these efforts calling for ending the Palestinian division and opening a new page with Egypt.

    Al-Monitor spoke to Abu Zuhri, a native of Rafah and lecturer in the Department of History and Archaeology at Gaza’s Islamic University since 2000. He is currently an assistant professor in the department and holds a doctorate in Islamic history.

    Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/06/abu-zuhri-interview-al-monitor-hamas-egypt-ties.html#ixzz4AewHpApt

  • Ephraïm Halevy, ex-chef du Mossad (1998-2002), admet dans une interview sur al-Jazeera english avec Mehdi Hassan qu’Israël a consciemment apporté une assistance médicale à al-Nousra.
    C’est la première fois, à ma connaissance, qu’un type de ce niveau admet que l’aide apportée par Israël à al-Nousra n’était pas accidentelle mais a été faite en toute conscience et pour des raisons tactiques. Jusqu’ici le discours servi par Israël était que cela était peut-être arrivé mais seulement parce qu’Israël soignait, pour des raisons évidemment humanitaires, les rebelles modérés sur le Golan et que certains de Nousra se trouvaient peut-être parmi eux :
    Ex-Mossad head on Israel medical aid to al-Nusra Front
    http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/upfront/2016/05/mossad-head-israel-medical-aid-al-nusra-front-160531081744269.html

    The former head of Israel’s intelligence agency Mossad defends the country’s treatment of al-Nusra Front fighters on the Syrian border.
    In this web extra, Efraim Halevy tells Mehdi Hasan that he is not concerned that Israel had treated fighters in Syria from al-Nusra Front, which some say is al-Qaeda’s Syrian branch.
    “It’s always useful […] to deal with your enemies in a humane way,” Halevy says.
    When pressed on whether he believed the assistance was purely humanitarian, Halevy responds, “I didn’t say there’s no tactical [consideration]. I said the main consideration, the immediate consideration is humane.”
    Halevy also says he would not support the treatment of wounded Hezbollah fighters because Israel had been targeted by Hezbollah, but “not specifically targeted by al-Qaeda”.

    Bien sûr cet aveu demi-officiel est encore probablement loin de décrire l’étendue de cette coordination Israël/Nousra qui a probablement aussi consisté non seulement en des livraisons d’armes (caisses mystérieuses qui passent la ligne de démarcation dont ont témoigné des casques bleus de l’ONU dans un rapport au CS) mais aussi du renseignement et de la planification dans la détermination des cibles militaires (régime et ses alliés) selon le témoignage de rebelles :
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/01/syria-opposition-daraa-israel-communication-nusra.html

    • merci @stephane_m
      Egalement ici par J.D. Merchet :
      http://www.lopinion.fr/edition/international/golan-l-etrange-arrangement-entre-l-armee-israelienne-rebelles-syriens-1036

      « Il y a une cinquantaine de groupes rebelles, mais le plus grand et le plus puissant est al-Nosra », c’est-à-dire al-Qaïda, reconnaît un officier israélien. Les autres sont des milices locales impliquées dans l’autodéfense des villages, mais « tous sont religieux, il n’y a pas de laïcs », ajoute la même source.

      Free Army. C’est donc à partir d’une zone contrôlée par al-Nosra que les passages de blessés ont lieu. « Ceux qui nous les envoient ont de bonnes connections avec l’armée israélienne. Il faut de bonnes recommandations…, reconnaît un médecin de l’hôpital de Safed. Officiellement, les blessés sont issus de l’Armée syrienne libre », soutenue par les Occidentaux, mais pas d’al-Nosra. Les jeunes patients rencontrés le confirment : ils appartiennent à ce qu’ils nomment la « Free Army ». S’ils combattent Daech et Assad, ils reconnaissent être « alliés » d’al-Nosra, avec lequel ils se coordonnent sur le terrain et qu’ils jugent « peaceful » (pacifique)…

      Pour bénéficier d’un traitement médical en Israël, ils expliquent sans plus de détails qu’il faut passer par des « shebabs » (jeunes) d’une certaine « katiba » (brigade), sans avoir besoin de verser de bakchich. Après plus de 2000 passages, l’affaire semble bien organisée. Si elle se déroule sans une implication directe de la branche locale d’al-Qaïda – ce qui n’est pas prouvé – elle bénéficie au moins de son accord tacite. Imaginer que le groupe djihadiste radical qui tient une cinquantaine de kilomètres sur la frontière - en principe fermée - avec Israël laisserait aller et venir des combattants blessés sans s’en préoccuper relève de la fantaisie. Il n’est pas exclu que les Américains, installés en Jordanie pour y soutenir les groupes rebelles jouent un rôle dans ces transferts de blessés.

  • Turkey’s Islamists, nationalists both silent on Israeli weapons flow to Azerbaijan
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/05/turkey-pragmatism-triumphs-over-anti-israeli-sentiments.html

    Overall, as Azeri-Israeli strategic cooperation deepens, we are once more reminded that radical groups in Turkish society are still taking their cues from the government and are in sync with the state. Hence, it would be too soon to interpret the results of Kadir Has University’s research as a significant change in anti-Israel sentiment in Turkey. A more sober analysis would be that even the hatred for Israel can be controlled if it is in the interest of these groups.

    #Turquie

  • What’s next for Hezbollah in Syria? - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/05/hezbollah-mustapha-baderedine-mughniyeh-syria-war-resistance.html

    “He’s a combination of several elements — experience, charisma, military vision and shrewdness — that are hard to find in one person. He had them all in him. But this doesn’t mean Hezbollah’s men are going to be affected on the ground,” he told Al-Monitor. “Resistance bloc fighters execute plans and tactics that are drawn by the joint military command, so there’s no fear in this regard on field operations. But, yes, the command will miss his capabilities and broad vision.”

    The source added, “Hezbollah’s military today isn’t the same as a decade ago. Today they are more institutionalized. Several great commanders have fallen in the past couple of years, but this didn’t change the course of the war. … The best farewell to [Badreddine] is to continue this war until the victory that he was looking for [is achieved].”

    But in fact, the killing of Badreddine is going to have a deep effect on Hezbollah’s military command. For the first time in many years, there will be a new commander from outside the legend of Badreddine and his brother-in-law, commander Imad Mughniyeh.

    Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/05/hezbollah-mustapha-baderedine-mughniyeh-syria-war-resistance.html#ixzz49

  • Revealed: Saudi Arabia owns $117 billion of U.S. debt
    http://money.cnn.com/2016/05/16/investing/saudi-arabia-us-debt-ownership-revealed/index.html

    Unlike with most other major owners of U.S. debt, the Treasury Department kept Saudi Arabia’s precise holdings secret since the 1970s. Saudi’s holdings were lumped together with that of other oil exporting nations, including Venezuela and Iraq.

    But that policy ended on Monday as the Treasury Department disclosed precise holdings by specific countries that were previously grouped together. A Treasury official told CNNMoney the move was made following a review aimed at trying to provide more “comprehensive and transparent” data.

    • @nidal : oui j’avais fait le lien grâce à tes signalements (et ceux d’@kassem).

      Comme un vieux couple marié qui se déchire, la colère incite à révéler quelques secrets d’alcôve, à user du chantage, mais aussi à mentir effrontément, à mettre tous les torts sur l’autre, à se menacer et à se faire quelques vacheries. Scène de ménage géopolitique...
      En « conspirationniste prudent », j’espère que quelques bulles des noirs secrets que l’on peut soupçonner de cette entente viennent, à la faveur de cette dispute, éclater à la surface des eaux médiatiques.

      Une réflexion primesautière d’un ignorant en matière de droit : un truc me chiffonne quand même c’est que la possibilité pour les familles de victimes du 09.11 d’attaquer l’Etat saoudien devant les tribunaux américains pourrait renforcer une dynamique qui paraît faire du système judiciaire américain une justice internationale de fait, capable de sanctionner des Etats, ou de faire plier la législation d’autres pays, et ce sans accord politique et sans réciprocité. Ici comme sur d’autres questions : affaire du non-respect des sanctions unilatérales contre l’Iran, de l’évasion fiscale par HSBC, des fonds vautour en Argentine, voire dans les histoires de corruption de la FIFA...
      Avec l’avantage que cela fournit aux forces qui peuvent l’instrumentaliser.

    • @souriyam Il me semble qu’il y a quelques semaines, l’Iran a été condamné par un tribunal de New York à une somme totalement astronomique pour… sa responsabilité totalement farfelue dans les attentats du 11 Septembre. Alors du coup je ne sais pas bien quoi penser. (Peut-être une histoire de pénal/civil, mais je ne vois pas pourquoi les Séoudiens étaient protégés et par les Iraniens.)

    • Amusant, je viens juste de tomber sur un article d’al-Monitor qui traite du sujet, mais en insistant sur le fait que cette tendance constitue une menace pour la conduite de la politique étrangère américaine (ici l’accord sur le nucléaire iranien) et les investisseurs américains potentiels dans les pays ciblés, mais l’article fait aussi le lien avec d’autres affaires (non-respect des sanctions américaines par BNP ou les saoudiens et le 11 septembre) :
      How Supreme Court decision to freeze Iran assets undermines US foreign policy
      http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/05/us-supreme-court-iranian-asset-seizures-terror-victims.html#

      The concept that a nation is immune from lawsuits in the courts of another is accepted internationally, even in cases where the alleged harm is egregious. The United States enshrined state immunity as law through the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act (FSIA) of 1976. Since its enactment, FSIA has gone through transformations resulting in exceptions to the law that include the right of victims of terrorism to sue states listed as “state sponsors of terrorism.” This list includes Iran, but not US allies such as Saudi Arabia. Recent actions under the FSIA exceptions include the US Supreme Court’s decision to uphold the seizing of $2 billion of Iranian assets to compensate victims of the 1983 Marine barracks bombing in Beirut, a lawsuit against Iran filed by former Marine and prisoner Amir Hekmati and a widely mocked decision by a federal court that found Iran liable for the Sept. 11 attacks. The United States seems to be moving forward with the aggressive use of FSIA exceptions to account for past Iranian actions, but the further weakening of state immunity will have unintended consequences that are likely to backfire.

    • L’article parle surtout de la peine prononcée conte l’Iran au sujet de morts de militaires américains du temps de la guerre au Liban, mais aussi de ce que tu écris plus haut sur les plaintes au sujet du 11.09 contre l’Iran et les Saoudiens :

      While plaintiffs seek redress for foreign states’ actions through judicial actions, their desires may not necessarily square with US foreign policy interests — especially when there are doubts as to the defendant’s culpability.
      A prominent example of such a conflict is the recent court order for Iran to pay $10 billion to families of victims who died in the Sept. 11 attacks. The same court cleared Saudi Arabia of any responsibility for the attacks. The decision left foreign policy experts dumbfounded and the White House struggling to explain the judgment. The damage to American credibility would be unimaginable if sanctions violators were used to fund such a farcical judgment.

      Il me semble qui plus est que quelqu’un a signalé ici cette condamnation assez invraisemblable de l’Iran pour le 11.09 dont tu parles.

  • Article très intéressant d’Elijah Magnier sur les divergences actuelles entre Damas, Téhéran et le Hezbollah d’un côté et la Russie de l’autre quant à la cessation des hostilités :
    Russia equivocates in Syria, Iran is confused and al-Qaeda takes the initiative
    https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/2016/05/11/russia-equivocates-in-syria-iran-is-confused-and-al-qaeda-takes-
    Morceaux choisis :

    The Damascus and Moscow alliance faced with the cooperation of the Middle Eastern regional countries and the United States in Syria is failing at the moment. Al-Qaeda in al-Sham (Jabhat al-Nusra) although excluded from the Cease-fire, grabbed the initiative on the ground and counter attacked south of Aleppo with many allies: Ahrar al-Sham, Jund al-Aqsa, Jaish al-Sunnah and the Turkestan forces (all not excluded from the Cease-fire) fighting within the ranks of Jaish al-Fateh, the “army of conquest,” which includes more jihadist organizations and others more moderate.[...]
    Now that over 97 cities and towns are engaged in the cessation of hostilities (COH), the Russian President Vladimir Putin needs a strong case to return to the Syrian arena in full force. Today, Moscow has placed itself alongside flexible American diplomacy, which in Syria changes according to developments and is unwilling to re-initiate a military campaign that could be considered aggressive to various countries in the Middle East. Such a flexible Russian attitude has angered Tehran and Damascus and their proxy allies, forcing them to alter plans of deployment.[...]
    Decision makers in Syria say “Moscow gave the time for rebels to regroup and reorganise their offensives. There is no point in fighting and dying in areas we don’t need to hold on to. Before the Russian intervention, we were defending the main cities and no force could have managed to break in. Now we are on several fronts without serious coordination between all forces. It is time to change tactics and reduce military deployment”.[...]
    “Countries in the region are prepared to wait seven more months for a new U.S. President who would interact with Assad more aggressively than President Barack Obama. These countries will continue supporting the rebels in the next 7 months, sending money and weapons so they are prepared for another confrontation. The allies of Damascus consider Russia has repeated what the late President of Egypt Anwar al-Sadat did in 1973 when he stopped the war suddenly and gave Israel the opportunity to regroup its forces, returning to regain the initiative and overcome the Egyptian third army, all of which resulted in the Camp David agreement”.[...]
    It is therefore expected that Hezbollah, a strong and effective ally of Damascus, will modify its deployment plans on the battlefield to mitigate the human losses as long as there is an unclear horizon and that Russian politics in Syria are unclear, say the sources. Six months ago, Damascus and its allies decided to retreat to the main cities and abandon distant and rural areas, difficult to supply logistically and considered less strategic. Today, Hezbollah refuses to engage in all on-going battles when military plans are drawn up but not implemented, even with limited officers. If Russia is willing to hit only ISIS in the East of Syria and refrain from hitting al-Nusra and other jihadists spread in vast area around Aleppo, Hezbollah is not willing to lose more men to keep a status quo. There will be no withdrawal from Syria but redeployment and reduce participation in many forthcoming battles, according to sources on the ground.
    A fuzzy future is overwhelming Syria. It seems that the appeasing Russian policy of appeasement with regard to Jahbat al-Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham and other jihadists will negatively affect the Syrian army provided that there are no other changes in the Syrian dynamic. The war in Syria is not expected to end soon.

    Article original en arabe dans le journal koweïtien al-Raï ici : http://www.alraimedia.com/ar/article/special-reports/2016/05/10/678502/nr/syria

    • Un article d’al-Monitor rapportait l’agacement des Iraniens quant à la cessation des hostilités qui privait Damas d’initiative tout en permettant à Jaysh al-Fatah (dont al-Nousra et le TIP exclus de la Cessation des hostilités) de faire des avancées importantes au sud d’Alep, dont récemment à Khan Touman :
      http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/05/iran-syria-heavy-losses-khan-tuman.html

      The Khan Tuman attack took place one day after the United States and Russia announced a cease-fire in Aleppo province. Kowsari denounced the cease-fire as simply being another method for the United States to achieve its goals in Syria, and he accused the United States of working with opposition groups to violate the cease-fires.

      According to Entekhab website, quoting Lebanon’s As-Safir newspaper, during a May 7 meeting between Assad and Ali Akbar Velayati, foreign policy adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iranian officials had reportedly conveyed their concern about Russia’s proposals for a political solution at a time when armed opposition groups are increasing their forces traveling through Turkey. The Iranians reportedly believe that the political solutions would limit Russia’s military involvement before having established dominance over the armed fighters and this would cause a change in the battles.

  • Erdogan suggests name change for Arab League - Al-Monitor : the Pulse of the Middle East
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/05/turkey-erdogan-accuses-arab-league-of-splitting-islam.html

    Ce n’est pas un gag, Erdogan suggère, dans une conférence relativement mineure il est vrai, de changer la Ligue arabe en Ligue musulmane... (Il s’en verrait d’ailleurs assez bien le patron alors que pour la Ligue arabe, ce n’est pas gagné et la place est déjà prise de toute manière !)

    “We always talk about Turks and Arabs. I am saddened by this. They talk about the Arab League. So does this mean we should put a Turkish League in front of this?” Erdogan said. “You talk about Islamic cooperation on the one hand and about an Arab League on the other. What kind of business is this? Why don’t we just call it the ’Islamic League’ instead of the Arab League?”

    #arabisme

  • Four reasons Sisi won’t turn against Iran - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/05/iran-saudi-egypt-sisi-rapprochment-salman-visit.html

    Avoiding confrontation: Does Egypt even want to confront Iran? There is no clear cut answer to this question, although its regional policy and strategic choices toward Middle Eastern hotspots — such as Syria and Yemen — show a tendency for rivalry with Riyadh and especially Ankara rather than any sort of inclination to confront Tehran. Although there is no such thing as regional cooperation between Egypt and Iran, confronting Iran is not on Sisi’s agenda. The Egyptians are reflecting Riyadh’s rhetoric toward Iran obviously for economic reasons, but the economic dimension has its limits in shaping politics, especially when it comes to strategic choices.
    Limited potential: What can Egypt add to Saudi’s regional effort against Iran? The answer is “not much.” In fact, Egypt’s strategic potential in the Middle East is so limited that it couldn’t stop Qatar from backing the Egyptian opposition. Although having Cairo within its anti-Iran camp would have some political ramifications, Riyadh is putting a lot of effort into getting more than just political backing from Sisi. Faced with a lack of a much-needed strategic — and effective — ally, Riyadh is struggling to create one out of Egypt. Yet on a cost-benefit analysis, Egypt is perhaps too much of a cost for Saudi Arabia to raise any concern in Tehran.

    Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/05/iran-saudi-egypt-sisi-rapprochment-salman-visit.html#ixzz47gNYqyef

  • Why ex-minister’s return to prison may ease Lebanon’s political deadlock - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/04/michel-samaha-hariri-military-court-sectarian-strife.html

    the voices that once supported Samaha are muffled. Even Jamil al-Sayyed, one of the most hard-line figures in the Axis of Resistance — the anti-West alliance between Hezbollah, Iran and Syria — and within the ranks of the March 8 Alliance, has nothing good to say. Sayyed tweeted Jan. 15, a day after Samaha’s release, “Michel Samaha betrayed my trust and erred against me when he accompanied me from Damascus with him knowing what he was hiding in his car.” Sayyed reaffirmed that stance in another Twitter posting April 8, the day the court handed Samaha his prison term.

    It appears that the irreversible decision came against the backdrop of uninterrupted bilateral dialogue sessions between the Future Movement Party (part of the March 14 Alliance) and Hezbollah (part of the March 8 Alliance) that started in December 2014. The dialogue has been ongoing despite the political sparring between Future Movement and Hezbollah over the war in Syria and the emerging crisis with Saudi Arabia; the next session is scheduled for May 10. Two items on the agenda are easing sectarian tensions and finding a solution to the two-year presidential vacuum.

    One of the outcomes of this dialogue so far is Minister of Interior and Municipalities Nouhad al-Machnouk’s rejection of the Arab Interior Ministers’ decision March 2 to brand Hezbollah a terrorist organization.

    Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/04/michel-samaha-hariri-military-court-sectarian-strife.html#ixzz47gLuCpHy

  • Why Merkel’s criticism only strengthens Netanyahu - Al-Monitor | Mazal Mualem | Posted May 2, 2016
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/05/israel-netanyahu-germany-merkel-settlements-frustration.html#

    The diplomatic uproar over the Der Spiegel report about German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s despair over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and of the ongoing construction in the settlements is not damaging Netanyahu politically. On the contrary. However, anyone who has spoken with senior German officials over the past two years knows that the claims that Germany is less inclined to unconditionally support Israel, which has since been denied (at least partially) by sources close to the chancellor, is a reliable reflection of reality. Germany, Israel’s most important ally in Europe, feels Netanyahu is leading it by the nose and taking it for granted while he keeps boosting the settlement enterprise.

  • Is Hamas on the offensive or defensive? - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/04/israel-gaza-war-idf-deterrence-defensive-rocket-project.html

    Within the movement itself, there is an enormous power struggle underway between the military wing and a divided political wing. The same senior officer from the Southern Command came up with an original way to explain it. He said that Hamas’ military commander Mohammed al-Deif turned people such as senior Hamas official and former Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh into preachers who have no influence in the mosques.

    The same internal power struggle existed in the time of Jabari, who threatened the movement’s leaders whenever they did something that he didn’t like.

    Beyond all that, Hamas is also preparing for the “Day of Judgment,” when the movement is forced to break the siege on Gaza, after Israel or Egypt decides to tighten it.

    Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/04/israel-gaza-war-idf-deterrence-defensive-rocket-project.html#ixzz46HTBYz

  • Underground war between Israel, Hamas heats up - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/04/israel-gaza-tunnels-hamas-deterrence-weapon-new-technology.html

    Hamas understands that it is decisively outflanked by the IDF in land, sea and air. The only advantage that Deif succeeded in achieving for his fighters is in the subterranean space, where the IDF is not accustomed to fighting and cannot actualize its superiority. That is the reason Hamas invests all its energies in reconstructing the tunnels. Past experience has shown that the only way to bring Israel to its knees is to abduct an Israeli soldier, a la Gilad Shalit, who was captured in 2006 and released in 2011.

    In order to carry out such a kidnapping, Hamas needs a tunnel that will penetrate the Israeli homefront and allow its “Nokhba” fighters, Hamas’ elite unit, to carry out a surprise attack on the IDF and drag one or two live Israeli soldiers into the Strip. Israel, on its side, understands the situation and invests all its energies in attempts to neutralize the tunnel challenge.

    Simultaneously, acute political struggles are being waged within Hamas, and also among decision-makers in Israel. Amos Gilad, director of the Political-Military Affairs Bureau at Israel’s Defense Ministry, said April 13 that there is a conflict in Gaza between two echelons. “The diplomatic echelon [in Gaza] has seniority and priority over the terror echelon,” Gilad said. “But Mohammed Deif couldn’t care less about diplomatic policy, he does what he feels like and all his people follow him accordingly. … Therefore, there are, in effect, two entities [of Hamas in Gaza]. One works with Iran and one works ‘as if’ diplomatically. It conducts negotiations with Egypt and [also] cooperates with Islamic State."

    Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/04/israel-gaza-tunnels-hamas-deterrence-weapon-new-technology.html#ixzz46HS

  • Is Israel forming an alliance with Egypt and Saudi Arabia? - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/04/israel-al-sisi-egypt-saudi-arabia-islands-transfer-alliance.html#

    According to a senior security official, who spoke to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, Ya’alon emphasized to his associates that security cooperation between Israel and Egypt had reached an all-time high. The security systems of the two countries share the same interests. Egyptians, for instance, help Israel contain and cordon off Hamas in Gaza.

    The recent move — the transfer of the two islands to Saudi Arabia — reveals part of the dialogue that has been developing between Israel and its Sunni neighbors. A highly placed Israeli security official, who spoke to Al-Monitor anonymously, added some details: Israel’s relationships in the region are deep and important. The moderate Arab countries have not forgotten the Ottoman period, and are very worried about the growing strength and enlargement of the two non-Arab empires of the past: Iran and Turkey. On this background, many regional players realize that Israel is not the problem, but the solution. Israel’s dialogue with the large, important Sunni countries remains mainly under the radar, but it deepens all the time and it bears fruit.

    Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s action has aroused sharp public criticism in Egypt. The president’s opponents argue that under the Egyptian Constitution he has no authority to give up Egyptian territory, but Sisi rightly warded off this criticism: These islands originally belonged to Saudi Arabia, which transferred them to Egypt in 1950 as part of the effort to strangle Israel from the south, and prevent the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) from taking control of them. Israel embarked on two wars (the Sinai War in 1956 and the Six Day War in 1967) for navigation rights in the Red Sea. It took over these islands twice, but then returned them to Egypt both times. Now events have come full circle, and the Egyptians are returning the islands to their original owner, Saudi Arabia. This is a goodwill gesture from Sisi to King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud, after the Saudis committed themselves to the economic solvency of the Egyptian regime for the next five years. The Saudis are making massive investments in Egypt and providing financial support to save the Egyptian economy from collapse.

    There is another aspect to the Egyptian transfer of the islands to Saudi Arabia: In the past, several proposals were raised regarding regional land swaps, with the goal of resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The framework is, in principle, simple: Egypt would enlarge Gaza southward and allow the Gaza Strip’s Palestinians more open space and breathing room. In exchange for this territory, Egypt would receive from Israel a narrow strip the length of the borderline between the two countries, the Israeli Negev desert region from Egyptian Sinai. The Palestinians, in contrast, would transfer the West Bank settlement blocs to Israel. Jordan could also join such an initiative; it could contribute territories of its own and receive others in exchange. To date, this approach was categorically disqualified by the Egyptians in the Hosni Mubarak era. Now that it seems that territorial transfer has become a viable possibility under the new conditions of the Middle East, the idea of Israeli-Egyptian territorial swaps are also reopened; in the past, these land swap possibilities fired the imaginations of many in the region. In his day, former head of Israel’s National Security Council Maj. Gen. Giora Eiland led a regional initiative on the subject. But he was stymied by Egypt.

    #Israël #Egypte #Arabie_Saoudite #Turquie

  • Who is to blame for Beirut’s airport security gap?
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/04/lebanon-international-airport-security-gap-seaiter-machnouk.html

    With the trash crisis still pending, having tainted Lebanon’s image around the world and exposed its government’s division and incompetence when it comes to performing a basic duty like waste collection, another crisis looms on the horizon: Lebanon’s airport security and its compliance with international safety standards are now called into question.

  • L’offensive rebello-alQaïdesque contre Da’ich et appuyée par la Turquie (et discrètement les USA) n’est pas franchement une réussite : http://seenthis.net/messages/479876
    First Turkey-backed operation against IS becomes a fiasco
    al Monitor
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/04/turkey-syria-first-isis-operation-becomes-fiasco.html

    In line with the road map Cavusoglu spoke about, Turkey gave artillery support to the operation that began April 7, and coalition planes from Incirlik Air Base provided air support. A local source at Elbeyli, on the Turkish side of the strip of land controlled by IS, told Al-Monitor about military activities.
    “For a while every evening, people were seen being transported to the border area in buses. … We also saw trucks laden with earth-moving equipment and 4x4 vehicles," the source said. “This was done at night, and because some of the trucks were covered with tarpaulins, we couldn’t see their loads. Clashes escalated Saturday night. They brought about 20 wounded to Kilis. Two of them were IS men.”
    Pro-government media in Turkey reported the developments as a victory of Turkmens, while organizations such as Ahrar al-Sham released their own combat photographs. This move added credibility to Ankara’s view that the area can be cleaned of IS without the Kurds.
    Turkish media lauded the al-Rai victory as “a success of opposition forces toward establishment of a safe zone,” as Turkey has been advocating. After taking al-Rai, the opposition groups were expected to advance 60 kilometers (37 miles) to Jarablus, which is the most significant logistics hub on Turkey’s border.
    The euphoria lasted four days — until IS returned with 11 explosive-laden vehicles and routed Turkey’s allies.

  • Le régime syrien annonce une offensive soutenue par la Russie pour prendre tout Alep , où dans le sud une contre-offensive du régime et de ses alliés tente déjà de récupérer le terrain perdu ces derniers jours face à l’offensive récente d’une coalition comprenant al-Nousra, des groupes salafistes et d’autres affiliés à l’ASL.
    Syrian PM says Russia to back new Aleppo attack ; opposition says truce near collapse
    Reuters / 10.04.16
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-idUSKCN0X70GE

    Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halaki told a delegation of visiting Russian lawmakers of preparations to “liberate” Aleppo, Syria’s biggest city and commercial hub before the conflict that erupted in 2011. Aleppo is divided into areas controlled separately by the government and opposition.
    “We, together with our Russian partners, are preparing for an operation to liberate Aleppo and to block all illegal armed groups which have not joined or have broken the ceasefire deal,” he was quoted as saying by TASS news agency.
    Dmitry Sablin, a member of Russia’s upper house of parliament and a member of the delegation, told RIA news agency “Russian aviation will help the Syrian army’s ground offensive operation”.

    L’opposition de Ryadh déclare que la cessation des hostilités est sur le point de s’effondrer :

    A member of the main opposition council said the last 10 days had “witnessed a serious deterioration, to the point where the ceasefire is about to collapse”. Bassma Kodmani of the High Negotiations Committee also told Journal du Dimanche that a U.S.-Russian ceasefire monitoring mission was “powerless”.
    The army says groups that had agreed to the cessation of hostilities had taken part in Nusra Front attacks on government-held positions south of Aleppo. Free Syrian Army groups meanwhile blame the fighting on government violations.
    “The air strikes are now roughly back to what they were,” said Mohamed Rasheed, head of the media office with the Jaysh al-Nasr rebel group. A Syrian military source said: “The battles are raging because ... armed groups that were part of the (truce) joined Nusra in the attack.”

    Tandis qu’on annonce l’arrivée de renforts nombreux pour le régime du côté d’Alep, tout semble en place pour une confrontation majeure du côté de Lattaquieh (frontière turque) et à Alep. Les Russes, les Iraniens et le régime semblent vouloir infliger une leçon à tous les groupes qui se sont alliés à al-Nousra, non seulement en récupérant le terrain perdu récemment, mais en réalisant des faits nouveaux sur le terrain.
    Qu’en pensent les Américains ? Jusqu’où va leur entente avec les Russes ?

    • Selon al-Monitor, à la suite de la déclaration fracassante du premier ministre syrien Wael al-Halaki sur la vaste contre-offensive prévue à Alep et qui serait soutenue par les Russes, des officiels russes auraient dit aux Américains : ne l’écoutez pas, il est irrationnel :
      http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/04/us-russia-ceasefire-syria-kerry-lavrov-nusra-aleppo-geneva.html#

      Russian officials have told the Americans that they are committed to sustaining the cessation of hostilities. Indeed, after Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halqi was cited telling a visiting delegation of Russian lawmakers April 9 that a Russian-backed Syrian army operation was soon to get underway to liberate Aleppo, the Russians told the Americans don’t listen to him, he’s “irrational,” a Syrian opposition contact in touch with US officials working on Syria told Al-Monitor.
      Notably, after the US expressed concern about how a major operation against Jabhat al-Nusra near Aleppo could affect the cease-fire ahead of new talks, Russia did not provide air support to Iranian special forces involved in intense clashes against Jabhat al-Nusra in Al-Eis, near Aleppo, on April 11-12, an Iranian and a British journalist near Aleppo said.