Al-Monitor Originals

/originals

  • Comment l’Iran perçoit le retrait partiel des forces russes de Syrie ?
    Selon cet article d’al-Monitor, assez sereinement, même si l’on se demande quel genre d’accord a pu être passé par les Russes avec les USA.
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/03/iran-reaction-russia-withdrawal-syria.html

    Mehdi Mohammadi, who was an adviser to the hard-line former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, believes that due to the high probability of the cease-fires being extended, Russia decided to pull some troops from Syria because of the costs of provisioning operational forces. He added that there are enough troops to carry out attacks against terrorist groups when needed.

    Mohammadi wrote in Tansim March 15 that Russia had informed both Damascus and Tehran of the details of the withdrawal. The main question, according to Mohammadi, is, “What concession has America and the opposition agreed to in exchange [for the Russian withdrawal]?” Mohammadi, without specifying to whom he might be referring, added, “Whatever it is, there is a great strategist standing behind these events.”

    • 1ère déclaration de Poutine depuis l’annonce du retrait partiel de Syrie : la Russie peut (ré)intensifier sa présence militaire en Syrie en quelques heures :
      http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-putin-idUSKCN0WJ1D4

      President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that Russia could scale up its military presence in Syria again within hours and would still bomb terrorist groups there despite a partial draw-down of forces ordered after military successes.
      Speaking in one of the Kremlin’s grandest halls three days after he ordered Russian forces to partially withdraw from Syria, the Russian leader said the smaller strike force he had left behind was big enough to help forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad keep advancing.
      “I’m sure that we will see new and serious successes in the near future,” Putin told an audience of more than 700 members of the military at an awards ceremony. In particular, he said he hoped that the ancient city of Palmyra, which is held by Islamic State, would soon fall to Assad’s forces.

    • Les différences entre l’Iran et la Russie sur la Syrie par Elijah Magnier :
      https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/2016/03/18/the-difference-between-russia-and-iran-over-syria

      According high official present in Syria, Russia will withdraw the biggest of its air force from Hmaymeem airport in the coming days and will keep helicopters and jets, sufficient to protect the Russian naval base at Tartus, and support the war on Salafist Jihadists. This move coincides with an agreement between Washington and the Kremlin to impose the capitulation on all fighters without exception, excluding Jihadists. According to the agreement, the U.S will enforce on its regional Middle Eastern allies the cessation of the flow of weapons. Although Moscow doesn’t share the same view but aim for a general unconditional election, Washington and Saudi Arabia would be even happy for the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to select the candidate of his choice as long as he steps down. In this way, no party involved in the war in Syria can be defeated but all would come out as winners.

      What Washington and the Kremlin accept is unsuitable for Tehran. The person of Assad represents the “axis of the Resistance”. His fall leads to the shaking of the axis. As no one can guarantee the future and he is the person who has accepted to go to war to defend the doctrine and value of this axis he belongs to. Therefore, the removal of Assad is not on Iran’s agenda. For this, Iran and those within the “axis of Resistance” won’t abandon him. Otherwise, the death of thousands of those who helped Assad (Iranian IRGC forces, Hezbollah and Iraqi militia) and tens of thousands of Syrians who fought under his banner would be wasted.

  • Hamas drags feet on choosing between Iran, Saudi Arabia - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/03/hamas-silence-gulf-decision-hezbollah-terrorist.html

    “Hamas is in a difficult situation and it cannot express a position," Abdel Sattar Qassem, a political science professor at An-Najah University in Nablus, told Al-Monitor. "It is puzzled and cannot take a stance regarding the Arab decisions against Hezbollah, although around 100 Hezbollah members have died while trying to smuggle weapons to Hamas in the past 10 years, and this is why it should support Hezbollah.

    "Of course, the party did not ask Hamas to take a position that would harm it regionally, but it will keep observing Hamas’ positions. Should it side with Saudi Arabia, Iran could take a firm stance to completely stop providing support for the movement.”

    On March 6, some media outlets reported that Hamas quietly sent a message of support to Hezbollah, refusing to consider it a terrorist organization. However, a senior Hamas leader based in Qatar told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity that the reports were not true, saying, “Hamas expresses its positions through official statements and spokespersons, and those positions are published on the movement’s official website and distributed to the media by conventional means.”

    Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/03/hamas-silence-gulf-decision-hezbollah-terrorist.html#ixzz42YImKWlj

  • Another Hamas-Fatah reconciliation agreement bites the dust - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/03/palestinian-reconciliation-hamas-fatah-qatar-meeting.html#

    The repercussions of the Palestinian division have been plaguing the Palestinian scene since 2007. All previous agreements have failed to bridge the gap between the two conflicting parties, Fatah and Hamas. The first agreement was reached in Mecca in February 2007, and then in Yemen in August 2007, followed by the Cairo agreement in December 2011, the Doha agreement in February 2012 and finally the Beach Refugee Camp agreement in April 2014.

    Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/03/palestinian-reconciliation-hamas-fatah-qatar-meeting.html#ixzz4224rD93i

  • Raqqa/Deïr az-Zor : avec les préparatifs pour la bataille de Mossoul la course à la prise du contrôle du territoire syrien sous contrôle de Da’ich entre des alliances concurrentes se met en place doucement, mais sûrement.

    Selon Elijah Magnier, le régime et ses alliés ne lanceront pas la bataille sur Raqqa tant que la bataille de Mossoul ne sera pas lancée par les Américains et leurs alliés. D’abord parce que ce serait s’exposer à des déplacements de troupes de Da’ich d’Irak vers la Syrie, et ensuite parce que le principal danger reste al-Nousra qui dispose de soutiens extérieurs. En attendant cette bataille de Mossoul, ils se concentrent donc sur al-Nousra dans la province d’Idlib et essaient de se positionner pour reprendre 3 villes à Da’ich : Qaryatayn, Palmyre et Tabaqa
    https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/2016/03/01/the-raqqa-offensive-needs-mosul-first-and-the-iraqi-popular-mobi
    The Raqqa offensive needs Mosul first and The Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Force to Syria

    The Syrian “axis of resistance”, formed of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Lebanese “Hezbollah” Special Forces, Iraqi of the PMF, Pakistani and Afghan militias, all operating in Syria and backed by Russia, are preparing new military plans to advance on two main axes in the north of Syria: The first, in the northwest in Jisr al-Shughur, Idlib and rural areas of Aleppo to counter al-Qaeda in the Levant – Jahbat al Nusra and its allies. The second, is the attack against ISIS on three fronts: Qariyateyen, Palmyra, and Tabqa, without going too close to Raqqa. Both al-Qaeda and its Jihadist allies on one hand, and ISIS on the other, are not included in any cease-fire or deal related to a possible peace process or Cease-fire in Syria. While Russia and its allies prepare for their war in Syria, the U.S.A is gathering Iraqi forces and many American advisors around Mosul for the Iraqi J-Day.

    La reprise de Qaryatayn et Palmyre (Tadmor), qui sont encore loin d’être faites, permettrait d’attaquer ensuite non seulement Raqqa par le sud mais aussi de briser le siège de Deïr az-Zor. Quant à Tabaqa, sa prise permettrait de couper Raqqa de toute la rive ouest du lac Assad et d’un accès à la Turquie au nord.

    En tout cas, côté Irak, les préparatifs pour la bataille de Mossoul semblent se mettre en place. D’autant que le YPG a récemment progressé en prenant la ville de Shedadeh sur l’axe Hasakeh-Deïr az-Zor. Et les déclarations d’officiels américains sont assez ambigües pour laisser penser que la course vers Raqqa, au moins par l’Irak pour la coalition américaine, est lancée :
    http://www.defenseone.com/threats/2016/02/battle-mosul-has-begun/126304
    The Battle for Mosul Has Begun

    “We are focused on eliminating the enemy in Raqqa every single day. We’re doing airstrikes there constantly,” McGurk said. “We know more now than we ever did before, and we’re beginning to constrict [the coalition’s] hold on Raqqa.”
    Carter called Shadadi “a critical node for ISIL training and logistics, as well as for its oil enterprise. As our partners take control of Shadadi, I believe we will learn a great deal more about ISIL’s criminal networks, its criminal enterprise, and what it does to sustain them.”
    McGurk said the Mosul push will be guided from a new joint operations center in Makhmur, southwest of the Kurdish capital of Irbil. The coalition also has forces in Sinjar, Hit, and al-Assad Air Base to the south, a key special operations launching point which has remained under U.S. and Iraqi control.
    “Because of our strategy and our determination to accelerate our campaign, momentum is now on our side and not on ISIL’s,” Carter said.

    Al-Monitor s’intéresse lui aussi au sujet :
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/02/syria-regime-advance-raqqa.html#ixzz41f6V3BGR
    Is Syrian regime about to retake Raqqa ?

    Regarding the next steps, the same leader in Athriya said, “Our operations will continue along the Athriya-Raqqa axis, and our forces will secure the road from Athriya to Khanasir. The Russian air force will protect the two forces [on the Athriya-Khanasir and Athriya-Raqqa axes] against any attacks that might risk us losing the regions we retook.” The Syrian regime managed to regain control over the town of Khanasir on Feb. 25.
    Abdel Rahman Daoud, a political analyst close to the Syrian regime, told Al-Monitor, “The Syrian army will stand its ground in the Raqqa battle because regaining the province is an important step to eliminate the danger of division, and because the Russian leadership wants to block the way to any US attempt to control IS’ main stronghold amid the public field race between Russia and the United States.”
    The Raqqa battle is still relatively far away if we look at it from the perspective of distances that the Syrian army would have to cross. But from an ambitious perspective, it has become imminent. IS has blocked the road the Syrian regime would need to cross to reach the north of the country. This might make the regime’s ambitions harder to fulfill.

  • Women win big in Iran’s parliamentary elections - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/02/iran-parliamentary-elections-women-elected-double-mps.html#

    The Islamic Republic’s 10th parliamentary elections have yielded a significant victory not only for Reformists, but also for women pushing for change in Iranian society. While the final nationwide results are not expected until March 1; early numbers show twice the number of female members as in the previous parliament. Though ballots from many districts are still uncounted, it is clear that the number of women will reach at least 22. Thus far, 15 women have won seats in Parliament, and 14 of them are Reformists. These include all eight women on the Reformist-moderate “List of Hope” in Tehran, where the results are set to be finalized on Feb. 29.

  • Five years on, predictions by Gadhafi’s son come true - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/02/libya-gaddafi-son-predictions-chaos.html#

    (...) Among other things, he predicted Libyans would lack security, the country would descend into chaos and lawlessness, many Libyans would die, the West would intervene and the economy would collapse because the oil would "cease to flow.”

    He also warned Libyans against dividing the country and having fanatic Islamic organizations take over some areas, if not all of them. He said many Libyans would be displaced inside and outside their country, repeating the same pattern of 100 years ago when Italy occupied Libya in 1911, forcing thousands to migrate to neighboring countries.

    (...) The younger Gadhafi also talked about arms availability and its consequences. Libyan lawmaker Saleh Jaweida estimated that there are nearly 20 million weapons in the hands of the people, which could explain why the murder rate is rising and why small quarrels could easily turn into wars between tribes and gangs. However, accurate data is lacking.

    (...) The Libyan banking system is collapsing slowly under the heavy weight of corruption and embezzlement, and above all the lack of liquidity, making it difficult for people to access their own savings. Government salaries are usually paid three months late.

    (...) The younger Gadhafi further predicted that foreign intervention in Libyan affairs will make it difficult for Libyans to reconcile among themselves. Libya now is dominated by regional and international powers, particularly Qatar, Egypt, Turkey and, of course, the permanent UN Security Council members that dictate what should and should not happen in the country through resolutions that are hardly enforced. Much of the fighting that has erupted in Libya since the uprising in February 2011 has been proxy wars between other countries fought by Libyans on Libyan soil.

    Gadhafi also warned his countrymen that the West will not accept any form of Islamic emirates on Libyan shores very close to the southern European borders. Today, the West — particularly France — is preparing a new intervention in Libya to dislodge IS from Sirte and other cities.

    (...)

    #libye

  • Iraq begins construction on #Baghdad wall

    The Iraqi government has embarked on the construction of a wall around Baghdad to protect the capital from terror attacks that have been ongoing since 2003 and to isolate it from hotbeds in the northern and western parts of the country. Sunnis object to the move, fearing the wall will deepen internal divisions.

    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/files/live/sites/almonitor/files/images/almpics/2016/02/baghdadWall.png?t=thumbnail_570

    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/02/iraq-baghdad-wall-deepens-sectarian-division.html#
    #Irak #murs #barrières #Bagdad
    cc @reka @albertocampiphoto @marty @daphne @clemencel

  • What Hezbollah stands to gain from Iran’s nuclear deal - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/02/iran-nuclear-deal-hezbollah-support.html

    The Hezbollah official said Tehran has looked to enhance ties with Europe and China rather than Washington, which maintains a hostile stance toward the movement. This orientation, he believes, constitutes further evidence that Hezbollah has nothing to fear from Iran’s return to the global arena.

    “Iran wanted to reach the nuclear agreement to open up and enhance ties with international players other than Washington,” he said confidently, citing the Chinese president’s visit to Iran on Jan. 23 and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s European tour, which included Italy and France, that directly followed.

    Unlike Washington, Beijing has not designated Hezbollah a terrorist organization and hence is not restricted in communicating with the movement. The European Union designates Hezbollah’s “military wing” a terrorist organization while maintaining communication with what it calls the group’s “political wing.”

    Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/02/iran-nuclear-deal-hezbollah-support.html#ixzz415dBHAe5

  • Why Turkey is losing hope in Syrian border town of Azaz - Al-Monitor : the Pulse of the Middle East
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/02/turkey-syria-hopeless-azaz-battle.html#

    Who makes up Jaish al-Thuwar? Established in May 2015, some of its fighters were in the US-supported, but then disbanded, Hazm Movement and the Syrian Revolutionaries Front. Cephed al-Akrad (the Kurdish Front) — made up of Kurds who had not joined the YPG — is another unit of Jaish al-Thuwar. The Seljuks Brigade and Sultan Selim Brigade of Turkmens, which operate separately from the Turkish-supported Turkmen forces, are also part of Jaish al-Thuwar. An alliance of Arabs, Turkmens and Kurds, Jaish al-Thuwar joined the YPG-led Syrian Democratic Forces in October 2015. Most of the fighters hail from settlements on the Azaz-Marea line and areas of Menbic, al-Bab and Jarablus currently controlled by IS. It isn’t accurate to call Jaish al-Thuwar fighters outsiders.

    Si vous avez encore du temps et de l’énergie pour essayer de suivre les fils de l’écheveau syrien, cet article est plein d’informations.

    #syrie

  • How fighters are filtering across the Syrian-Turkish border - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/02/turkey-syria-civilians-militants-massed-at-turkish-border.html#

    According to information provided by the Turkish military and Kilis governorate, there are many foreign fighters among those trying to cross into Turkey. A well-placed security source at the border provided profiles of the refugees: civilians fleeing from the Aleppo-Azaz area, families of opposition fighters who used to live in the liberated areas, fighters supported by Turkey in the Bayirbucak and Aleppo-Azaz areas and foreign Islamic State (IS) militants.

    Et la conclusion est intéressante aussi :

    Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had bargained with EU officials Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk and agreed to keep the border under control in return for 3 billion euros ($3.4 billion). It has widely been reported that, according to alleged transcripts of a November meeting, Erdogan had unsuccessfully tried to double that amount by threatening, “We will open the Greek and Bulgarian borders and fill buses with refugees.”

    But the looming question is what Turkey will do with all those fighters who will flee across the border when the Syrian army recovers the area. This is certainly a serious worry — and not just for Turkey.

    #turquie #EI #réfugiés #migrants

  • Undeterred by closures, Hamas still boasts of tunnel advantage - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/02/gaza-hamas-strategic-weapon-tunnels-against-israel.html

    On Jan. 29, speaking to thousands of mourners at the Great Omari Mosque in Gaza City for the funeral of seven al-Qassam Brigades fighters killed, Ismail Haniyeh, the deputy chairman of Hamas’ political bureau, stated that the tunnels have become a strategic weapon.

    Haniyeh said in his speech, "The tunnels played a crucial role in our victory. It is from these tunnels that the mujahedeen carried out the Nahal Oz operation. From these tunnels, the mujahedeen captured Israeli soldier Oron Shaul and fought the Israeli occupation from ground zero. … The mujahedeen went behind enemy lines … and returned safely to their bases.”

    Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/02/gaza-hamas-strategic-weapon-tunnels-against-israel.html#ixzz3zf4kSB3j

  • Une bonne fête de l’OTAN n’est jamais totalement réussie sans nos amis fascistes : Turkey’s nationalist ’Gray Wolves’ enter Syrian fray
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/02/turkey-syria-grey-wolves-emerge-as-jihadists.html

    Turkish involvement in the Syrian war has been heavily dominated by Islamist fighters, but the conflict has also drawn in an unlikely quarter — Turkish nationalists. The far-right Nationalist Action Party (MHP) and its youth branch, the Idealist Hearths, have recently come into the spotlight with high-profile losses on the Syrian battlefield. The MHP is the main body of Turkey’s ultranationalist movement, also known as the Gray Wolves, whose hall of fame includes failed papal assassin Mehmet Ali Agca. The Alperen Hearths, the youth branch of the smaller Great Union Party, which represents the ultranationalist movement’s Islamist-leaning wing, are also visibly interested in the Syrian war.

  • Under pressure from Turkey, UN excludes PYD from Syria talks
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/01/turkey-usa-syria-talks-ankara-won-batlle-against-pyd.html

    That sentiment — that the United States sold out the Kurds — is not completely off-base. I arrived in Brussels on Jan. 25 to attend the European Parliament’s annual conference on the Kurds, organized by its leftist party bloc, which includes Nobel laureates Archbishop Desmond Tutu, Shirin Ebadi of Iran and Jose Ramos-Horta of East Timor, as well as controversial American scholar Noam Chomsky.

    I was a speaker on a panel with Selahattin Demirtas, Turkey’s popular pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) chairman, and Peter Galbraith, a former American ambassador considered a close friend of the Kurds because of the role he played in the struggles of Iraqi Kurds.

    PYD leader Salih Muslim was on the list of speakers for the second day of that conference. But when I arrived in Brussels, I was told Muslim had left for Geneva at the invitation of UN special envoy Staffan de Mistura. He would be back the next day and then would travel again to Geneva for the Geneva III talks, which were set for Jan. 29.

    Thanks to my Kurdish sources, who were in constant communication with Muslim, I learned that Galbraith had come to Brussels from Geneva, where he also had met with American officials working on the Geneva III talks. He had been told that the United States was keen on seeing the PYD at the table during the talks.

    On Jan. 26, before Muslim was back in Brussels, the news broke: De Mistura had issued invitation letters to the Arab members of the Syrian Democratic Council like Manna. It was assumed that Muslim would be returning to Brussels with his invitation letter in his bag.

    Instead, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, who was in Strasbourg, Germany, said Turkey would boycott the Geneva talks if the PYD was involved.

    Some hours earlier, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, in an interview with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour, had said Turkey objected to the PYD’s involvement because it is a terrorist organization, but would not object if it was included in the Syrian government’s delegation.

    Galbraith was texting with Muslim, who informed him that de Mistura had not issued an official invitation to the PYD.

    Manna announced that if their Kurdish allies would not be at the talks, the other members of the Syrian Democratic Council would not be participating, either.

    The Kurdish sources in Brussels who were in constant contact with Muslim told me the morning of Jan. 27 that they had just spoken to Muslim, who was at that moment in a meeting with the Americans and that the PYD representation was still pending. He said everything would be clear by noon.

    By evening, word came from Washington. US State Department deputy spokesman Mark Toner declared that the PYD will not be invited to Geneva.

  • Will Syrian regime’s advances on the ground strengthen their position in Geneva? - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/01/syria-latakia-offensive-ahead-geneva-3-hirbnafsah.html

    The Syrian regime’s offensive on the Latakia countryside, the Hama countryside and the Homs countryside — which seems to be the regime’s new destination, according to the military situation on the ground and the continued Russian support — and its previous offensive on the countryside of Daraa plus truces in Homs and Rif Dimashq seem to be an attempt by the regime to control vital areas in Syria and secure major cities in the country, from Daraa to Hama and all the way to the coast, in order to have the strongest voice at the negotiating table.

    Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/01/syria-latakia-offensive-ahead-geneva-3-hirbnafsah.html#ixzz3yj9Jja4P

    • Je n’ai rien contre l’idée que le régime syrien serait diablement machiavélique, mais que le but des avancées militaires soit de conforter sa position politique, est-ce que ce n’est pas le principe même de la guerre ? ?

    • C’est-à-dire que si tu regardes ce que font les États-Unis et les résultats qu’ils obtiennent, ce n’est pas si clair… un autre des principes de la guerre, c’est d’enrichir les marchands d’armes et leurs mignons politiques.

  • Why Hamas hopes to keep low profile in Saudi-Iranian tensions - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/01/palestine-hamas-saudi-iran-crisis.html

    For his part, Youssef Rizqa, former minister of information in the previous Hamas government, told Al-Monitor, “Despite the fact that [Hamas] has interests with both parties, it was not asked to mediate to reconcile them with each other. However … just like Iran asked Hamas for a position on the Syrian crisis, Saudi Arabia asked for a similar position on the Yemeni crisis, because Hamas is a resistance movement that has an influence on the Arab public opinion.”

  • Turkey grants Syrians the right to work, but is it too little, too late? - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/01/turkey-syrian-refugees-granted-right-to-work.html#

    Yet a large number of the more highly qualified Syrians are already among the hundreds of thousands of refugees who have made it to Europe. They are gone. By granting Syrians work permits, Turkey is trying to stop the remaining, more highly qualified Syrians from going to Europe, as Deputy Prime Minister Yalcin Akdogan recently said. In an interview with Haberturk television on Jan. 16, Akdogan said, “European countries ... admit Syrians who belong to certain categories [of] qualified labor. Turkey, too, has shortages in certain fields. There are also some other fields where a bit less qualified people can work. The Labor Agency makes announcements for open positions in certain fields but no one would apply. ... [Syrians] can be employed in various fields. If we hadn’t issued the work permits, the qualified labor force would have gone to other countries and we would have been left with a much different picture.”
    (...)
    In an intriguing column on Dec. 15, Saim Tut from the Dirilis Postasi daily offered firsthand accounts of how qualified Syrians were wasted. “What have we done to help educated and qualified Syrians who are trying to open a permanent room of life for themselves in this country, which they see as the closest to them? Nothing,” the columnist wrote. “Most recently, I helped a young pharmacist, a graduate of [Damascus’] Kalamoon University, to get a job as a footman at the restaurant of a benevolent friend of mine. … Yesterday, I went with a heavy heart to [Ankara’s] Esenboga Airport to see off my friend Firas, a nuclear engineer from Hama, to Germany. A few months ago I wrote an article titled ‘Wash the dirty dishes well, Syrian engineer!’ And yes, this had happened right before my eyes. Just how benevolent, how glorious we are!

    #migrants #turquie

  • Lebanon’s Christian foes become friends - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/01/lebanon-christian-leaders-aoun-geagea-meeting.html

    The minister told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, “More than 85% of the Christian public opinion is now with Aoun, after Geagea and his party granted him full support. If this quasi-Christian consensus proves to be unable to lead to the election of a president, things may then move toward radical developments. It will then be clear that the entire Lebanese political regime is no longer viable.”

    In other words, the miracle of Jan. 18 raised the following ultimatum: either Aoun is elected as president, or the Lebanese Republic will no longer be the same and will no longer have a president unless under a different political and constitutional system.

    It seems clear that what pushed Geagea to support Aoun’s candidacy is the fact that his ally, Hariri, backed his foe, Franjieh, without consulting him. But the recent rapprochement between the West and Tehran may have repercussions on the Lebanese political scene, as Hezbollah has supported the Geagea-Aoun meeting and is excited about Aoun’s chances of being elected president of Lebanon.

    Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/01/lebanon-christian-leaders-aoun-geagea-meeting.html#ixzz3xymPhik2

  • What’s next for the Syrian regime? - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/01/syria-regime-control-salma-turkey-borders.html
    A field commander in the pro-regime Baath Brigades engaged in the Latakia countryside battles told Al-Monitor in Latakia, on condition of anonymity, “By taking control over Salma, we destroyed the largest set of the militants’ field hospitals. The next phase of the military operations — which is what we call the post-Salma stage — is to expand in the north and northeastern parts of the town toward the town of Kinsabba. This will allow us to reach Jisr al-Shughur in the countryside of Idlib and then advance toward the north in order to launch deadly strikes against militants.”

    He stressed, “The success of the regime forces in controlling Salma and progressing beyond would not have been possible, had it not been for the Russian air cover,” which accompanies any progress on the ground on the part of the Syrian regime and its supporters.

    Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/01/syria-regime-control-salma-turkey-borders.html#ixzz3xylzrp90

  • Defections threaten Jordan’s Brotherhood - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/01/jordan-muslim-brotherhood-resignations.html

    The Brotherhood had boycotted legislative elections in Jordan, the most recent in 2013, in protest of the election law, which they saw as working against them. In addition, Zamzam participants accused the current leadership of the Brotherhood of intransigence and of loyalties that go beyond the borders of the kingdom. When their initiative was rebuffed, their leaders were ousted from the Brotherhood, but they remained in the IAF until they joined others in resigning on Dec. 28. Now those behind Zamzam are considering establishing their own political party.

    Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/01/jordan-muslim-brotherhood-resignations.html#ixzz3xKMbEB00

  • Lebanon feels aftershocks of Saudi-Iran crisis - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/01/iran-saudi-arabia-repercussions-lebanon-hariri-hezbollah.html

    The first possibility is that this Sunni-Shiite conflict — outside Lebanon’s borders between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and in the Lebanese arena between Hariri and Hezbollah — will lead to the rapprochement between the Christian forces. This would result in the main Christian parties (Lebanese Forces and the Free Patriotic Movement) agreeing on a single candidate for the presidency.

    This would significantly tip the balance of power of the presidential elections. It should be noted that such a hypothesis has been circulated within the political and media circles in Beirut in the first 10 days of 2016. Talks have been spreading about progress in negotiations between the leaders of the two largest Christian parliamentary blocs — Free Patriotic Movement leader Gen. Michel Aoun and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea — to reach a bilateral agreement approving Aoun’s candidacy for presidency.

    Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/01/iran-saudi-arabia-repercussions-lebanon-hariri-hezbollah.html#ixzz3xDci1