Tweets show how a stroll in the park can bring happiness | The Economist | 14.08.23
New research suggests that visiting green spaces improves the mood of stressed city-dwellers
27 Aug. 2019
(data : visits to parks in San Francisco, California, May-Aug 2016)
▻https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/08/27/tweets-show-how-a-stroll-in-the-park-can-bring-happiness
https://www.economist.com/img/b/650/600/80/www.economist.com/sites/default/files/20190831_WOC969.png #sans_dec ?!?
Thread by C_A_Gustave on Thread Reader App – Thread Reader App
►https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1619421520631300096.html
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L’INSEE a actualisé les données de mortalité, avec l’année 2022 complète.
Cela me permet de mettre à jour un précédent thread et de revoir les estimations faites...
►https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/6206305
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Les données de mortalité (et excès de mortalité) sont précieuses en cette période de pandémie car :
A) Aucun pays ne peut documenter la totalité de ses cas de CoVID, et donc des décès qui en découlent
B) Les définitions des décès CoVID varient+++ dans le temps et entre pays
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Il en résulte une SOUS-estimation importante de la mortalité réellement induite par la pandémie.
Le décompte officiel est à ~6,8 millions de décès depuis 2020, alors que l’excès de mortalité constaté sur la même période varie de 16,6 à 29,9 millions
economist.com/graphic-detail… Image
The pandemic’s true death toll
Our daily estimate of excess deaths around the world
▻https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates
4/41
Encore récemment, avec l’exemple de la Chine, l’OMS rappelait le handicap de définitions trop restrictives des décès CoVID, et l’importance de suivre l’excès de mortalité pour évaluer l’impact réel de cet aspect le plus sévère de la pandémie
bbc.com/news/world-asi… ImageImage
China Covid : WHO warns about under-representing Covid deaths
The health body says it is worried about the risk to life and again urges Beijing for better data.
▻https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-64167052
5/41
Ou encore plus récemment quand le directeur de l’OMS rappelait le bilan des 8 dernières semaines (>170000 décès recensés), en précisant que la réalité était très supérieure
who.int/publications/m… Image
Virtual Press conference on global health issues transcript - 24 January 2023
CL Christian Lindmeier TAG Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus HB Dr Hanan Balkhy JH Dr Joachim Hombach MK Dr Maria Van Kerkhove MR Dr Mike Ryan TA Dr Tim Armstrong BG Belisa Godinho HE Helen Bransw…
▻https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/virtual-press-conference-on-global-health-issues-transcript---24-january-2023
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A cela s’ajoute le débat sans fin sur « mort DU ou mort AVEC le CoVID ».
Exemple d’un patient diabétique (maladie chronique), qui contracte la CoVID, décompense son diabète (acidose sévère, coma hyperosmolaire, défaillance multiviscérale...), et décède...
7/41
Est-il mort « du CoVID » ou bien « avec le CoVID » ?
Il vivait avec son diabète depuis plusieurs années. Sa route n’a pris fin qu’au moment où il a rencontré SARS-CoV-2.
Certains diront « mais s’il n’était pas diabétique, il ne serait pas mort à ce moment »...
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Mais s’il n’avait pas rencontré SARS-CoV-2, il ne serait pas mort non plus à ce moment, et aurait continué à vivre avec son diabète, comme il le faisait depuis de nombreuses années...
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Il y a donc un choix à faire pour la cause du décès, et ce choix varie+++ d’un pays à l’autre, d’une période à l’autre, mais aussi d’un praticien à l’autre...
L’excès de mortalité est beaucoup moins subjectif et moins sujet aux biais de ce genre...
10/41
Cependant, d’autres problèmes se posent avec la méthode de l’excès de mortalité.
Tout d’abord, cet excès ne représente que ce qui dépasse d’un niveau de référence.
On peut donc sous-estimer la mortalité spécifique totale d’une cause de mortalité donnée
11/41
Ensuite, le niveau de référence peut varier++ selon les sources.
Parfois, mortalité observée durant l’année qui a précédé le début de la pandémie.
Parfois une moyenne sur plusieurs années précédentes +/- associée à une projection si les conditions restaient inchangées...
12/41
Parfois il inclut les années pandémiques.
Cas du UK 🇬🇧 qui inclut 2021 dans le niveau de référence de mortalité.
Ceci conduit à inclure une partie de la surmortalité++ de la pandémie, et donc à SOUS-estimer la surmortalité des années suivantes
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati… Image
▻https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/monthlymortalityanalysisenglandandwales/november2022#excess-mortality-in-england-and-wales
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En France, on a tout d’abord les données INSEE comparées à l’année 2019.
La comparaison « brute » ne tient pas compte de l’évolution démographique, et donc de l’évolution « attendue » des décès.
▻https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/6206305#graphique-figure2
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Sur les données consignées par l’INSEE, on remarque que 2020 🔴 a été associée à une surmortalité massive par rapport à 2019 🔵.
Mais on note que 2021 🟡 et 2022 🟣 suivent une tendance similaire et sont même > à 2020... ImageImage
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La répartition de cette surmortalité sur l’année 2022 est assez évocatrice, puisqu’elle est divisée en 5 vagues, qu’on peut superposer aux 5 vagues de CoVID de l’année 2022.
La concordance est indiscutable 🤷♂️ ImageImage
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Comme en 2021, on observe à nouveau une importante SURmortalité en 2022, avec des vagues d’excès parfaitement superposables aux vagues de CoVID.
Mais quelle est l’ampleur de cet excès ?
Il faut se pencher sur l’évolution ATTENDUE en l’absence de pandémie...
17/41
3 facteurs entrent notamment en jeu :
A) La démographie.
L’évolution de la répartition des âges (vieillissement de la population), ainsi que du nombre d’habitants, tend à faire ↗️ lentement la mortalité année après année, indépendamment de tout autre facteur...
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B) Les quotients de mortalité.
Ils tendent au contraire à ↘️ d’année en année, sous l’impulsion des progrès de la médecine, de l’hygiène, de niveau socio-économique...
Cela tend à faire ↘️ la mortalité attendue...
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C) « L’effet moisson ».
La pandémie induit des décès précoces. Or on ne meurt qu’une seule fois. Ces décès qui surviennent plus précocement en raison de la pandémie, son autant de décès qui ne surviendront pas au moment où ils étaient « attendus »...
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Il en résulte donc une évolution de mortalité « attendue » (hors pandémie), qu’on peut alors retrancher à la mortalité « observée », et en déduire l’excès de mortalité induit par la pandémie
insee.fr/fr/statistique… Image
►https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/6445335
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En l’occurrence pour 2020, l’INSEE avait calculé une ↗️ de mortalité ATTENDUE (hors pandémie) de +9000 décès :
+14000 par vieillissement de la population
+1600 pour le jour supplémentaire en février
–6900 par évolution des quotients de mortalité Image
22/41
Au lieu des +9000 décès attendus, nous avons observé, malgré la lutte contre la transmission de SARS-CoV-2, un excès de +46700 décès !
Ceci est < au total des décès CoVID car c’est uniquement ce qui « dépasse » du niveau habituel de mortalité... Image
23/41
En 2021, avec la même méthode, l’INSEE attendait un excès de +9300 décès par rapport à 2019 :
+23100 par vieillissement de la population
– 13800 par évolution des quotients de mortalité.
En réalité, on a observé un excès +39100 décès ! ImageImage
24/41
Pour l’anecdote, dans un précédent thread j’avais été un peu plus « optimiste » que l’INSEE, car avec la tendance des années AVANT pandémie, j’arrivais à un nombre de décès attendus en 2021 > à celui de l’INSEE, et donc un excès de mortalité < à celui de l’INSEE 🔽 ImageImage
25/41
Qu’en est-il pour 2022 ?
Les données 2022 ne sont pas encore consolidées.
De plus, l’analyse par l’INSEE ne sera pas publiée avant le printemps 2023 car elle nécessite une analyse démographique étendue pour calculer les décès attendus...
►https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/6445335
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Ce que je vais faire ci-après, est donc uniquement une estimation/approximation.
Comme évoqué précédemment, pour l’année 2021, mon estimation était un peu trop « optimiste » avec un excès de mortalité à ~+25000, quand le vrai excès INSEE était finalement à +39100 😅
27/41
Comment faire l’estimation pour 2022 ?
Tout d’abord, reprendre les données de mortalité cumulée pour 2022.
L’INSEE recense 673637 décès en 2022.
Il s’agit là des décès OBSERVÉS ; ceci inclut donc l’excès de mortalité 2022 dû à la pandémie (qu’on cherche à calculer)... Image
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On peut alors reporter ce cumul des décès observés en 2022 🔴, sur le graphe INSEE qui compare les décès observés 🔵, avec les décès attendus (hors pandémie) 🟢...
insee.fr/fr/statistique… Image
►https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/6445335
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Ensuite, il nous faut estimer les décès attendus pour 2022 (hors impact de la pandémie).
L’extrapolation linéaire à partir des données INSEE de 2010 à 2021 donne la tendance usuelle (hors pandémie), et aboutit à 628982 décès attendus en 2022.
Cf. point 🟢 foncé Image
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On peut donc estimer la surmortalité 2022 à :
673637 - 628982 = +44655 décès en excès !
C’est quasiment la même surmortalité qu’en 2020 !
Toujours nettement ↗️ par rapport à ce qu’on observerait sans la CoVID.
Cet écart est de plus apparu/persistant avec la pandémie 🤷♂️ Image
31/41
Pourquoi ?
Certains évoquent la canicule de l’été 2022.
Plusieurs problèmes avec cette hypothèse.
Tout d’abord, les autorités ne lui attribuent que 2800 décès en excès (2000 à 3500), ce qui
n’explique pas le gap majeur à +44655.
H/T @Panda31808732
Bulletin de santé publique canicule. Bilan été 2022.
Bulletin de santé publique canicule. Bilan été 2022.
▻https://www.santepubliquefrance.fr/determinants-de-sante/climat/fortes-chaleurs-canicule/documents/bulletin-national/bulletin-de-sante-publique-canicule.-bilan-ete-2022
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De plus, comment peut-on penser que la canicule de 2003, plus intense et plus durable, sans
« plan canicule », ait fait 19000 morts ; et que la canicule 2022, moins intense et moins
durable, avec un « plan canicule », puisse en faire >2x plus ? 🤷♂️
meteofrance.com/actualites-et-… Image
▻https://meteofrance.com/actualites-et-dossiers/actualites/canicule-intense-et-durable-de-juillet-2022-que-faut-il-retenir
33/41
On ne peut pas négliger l’impact de la CoVID durant l’été 2022, puisque la vague estivale
2022 (BA.5) est :
A) Synchrone avec la vague de surmortalité
B) Nettement plus massive que les vagues de 2020/2021 en termes de contaminations 🤷♂️
ImageImage
34/41
Ne pas oublier que si Delta pouvait avoir un « excès » de virulence par rapport au variant
originel, Omicron n’est pas devenu « non-virulent ».
Il a la même virulence que le SARS-CoV-2 qui a conduit le monde au confinement en 2020
Cf. tweets 20 à 23 🔽
Unroll available on Thread Reader
35/41
Or contrairement à 2020 ou 2021, l’année 2022 a été caractérisée par la diffusion du lignage
Omicron, doté d’un échappement immunitaire ↗, et associé à une transmissibilité ↗↗↗.
2022 a donc connu une prévalence d’infections 🟡 beaucoup plus élevée que 2020 ou 2021 Image
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Ainsi, la ↘↘ de létalité obtenue via la vaccination, a été +/- « rongée » par la ↗↗ des
contaminations.
Au bilan, il en résulte une mortalité qui ne change pas beaucoup. 🤷♂️
Sans compter que l’adhésion aux rappels vaccinaux a ↘↘ malgré leur nécessité.
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En clair, il faut bien plus d’infections pour atteindre le même nombre de morts. Cela permet
de rouvrir pleinement l’activité économique (fin des restrictions).
Par contre, comme on laisse les infections ↗↗↗, toujours autant de vies sont perdues
chaque année.
38/41
Le dépistage des infections par SARS-CoV-2 a ↘↘↘ en 2022, rendant le recensement des
décès induits par la CoVID beaucoup moins exhaustif.
Or sans test, il est impossible de classer un décès dans la catégorie CoVID (définition étiologique) 🤷♂️
39/41
C’est le « nouveau normal », qui va mécaniquement impacter l’espérance et qualité de vie dans
les pays similaires à la France.
Je rappelle que le titre du rapport 2022 de la DREES ne portait que sur les données allant
jusqu’à 2019 🤡
40/41
Il faut également bien comprendre que nous sommes actuellement dans une période
« favorable » ou « protégée » car :
A) Les primo-vaccinations sont encore +/- récentes
B) Pas encore de variant totalement résistant à l’immunité acquise
C) Pas de variant à virulence ↗↗
41/41
Le bilan de nette surmortalité qu’on observe toujours en 2022 est donc un résultat en
conditions « favorables » !
La pandémie est peut-être finie dans votre esprit car vous l’associez aux « restrictions », mais
son impact sur nos vies ne fait que commencer.
• • •
►https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1619421520631300096.html
▻https://twitter.com/C_A_Gustave/status/1619421520631300096
Europe’s freakish winter heatwave breaks records | The Economist
▻https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2023/01/12/europes-freakish-winter-heatwave-breaks-records
It is not a good season for Europe’s skiers.
The Economist’s daily chart
Europe’s Liveability Index : Back to Normal | The Economist | 19.09.22
▻https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/09/19/the-most-and-least-liveable-cities-in-europe
For many people in western Europe, the pandemic is a thing of the past. Mask-wearers are a small minority and lockdowns are a distant, if painful, memory. This return to normality is reflected in a survey of “liveable” cities compiled by the eiu, our corporate cousins. The index compares 172 cities around the world across five categories: culture and environment, education, health care, infrastructure, and stability. Many of the world’s most liveable cities in this year’s edition are in western Europe: Vienna took the top spot for the third time in five years. Two others, Copenhagen and Zurich, make it into the top five.
The reopening of cities across western Europe has returned the region’s average scores to something close to their pre-pandemic norms. That also makes it the most liveable region globally.
[...] the most liveable region globally. In the overall list, all but one of the ten biggest improvements in the year were made in western Europe (the exception, Los Angeles, climbed 18 spots). The top three movers were in Germany: Dusseldorf, Frankfurt and Hamburg improved their liveability thanks mainly to big leaps in their culture scores after covid measures were eased.
Not all corners of the continent have enjoyed the same improvements. By comparison, cities in eastern Europe are recovering from covid-era drops in liveability at a slower pace; the average score in the east is now 20 points lower than the west. Already-strained health-care systems have been hamstrung by slow vaccine rollouts; many cities remain rife with corruption. Istanbul, the only city in Turkey included in the ranking, had the lowest score in Europe. Increasingly authoritarian leadership under Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the country’s president, as well as eye-watering inflation have dampened the quality of life. Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan—one of the most corrupt countries in Europe according to Transparency International, an anti-corruption group—is the second-least liveable city in Europe, reckons the eiu.
Moscow and St Petersburg slipped as Vladimir Putin’s regime tilted further towards oppression. The unit’s analysts were unable to finish their survey for Kyiv after Mr Putin’s invasion earlier this year. Ukraine’s capital has come either last or second-to-last in the European rankings since 2014.
The fighting will continue to make its mark on much of Europe. Inflation has hit Europe particularly hard, given the dependency of many countries on Russian gas. Higher prices will make the joys of city life less attainable. And a looming recession will take the shine off post-lockdown living.
An effective new drug to treat covid-19 emerges from Merck | The Economist
▻https://www.economist.com/business/2021/11/04/an-effective-new-drug-to-treat-covid-19-emerges-from-merck
Thor, the Norse thunder-god, was reputed to carry a hammer known as Mjollnir—a tool for destroying enemies and blessing friends. The hammer has provided suitable inspiration for the name of a powerful new drug to fight covid-19: #molnupiravir. That drug has just been approved by Britain’s national medicines regulatory agency—the first in the world to do so. Molnupiravir, made by Merck, a big pharma firm, and a Florida-based biotech called Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, is the first oral antiviral medicine available to treat covid-19. The approval marks another milestone in the world’s fight against covid-19.
Other countries are also working quickly to approve the new medicine, which has provoked keen interest. Last month the interim results of a trial found that patients with a risk factor for covid-19 were 50% less likely to be hospitalised or die if the oral antibiotic was taken in the first five days after symptoms. Britain has secured 480,000 courses of molnupiravir, and sales of the drug are already brisk. America, Australia, Britain, the Philippines, Indonesia, Japan, New Zealand, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam are some of the countries that have secured deals, or are in the process of doing so.
le suivi du molnupiravir sur SeenThis :
►https://seenthis.net/messages/890206
Forum Bourse VALNEVA - 04/11/2021 12:26:41 - molnupiravir - AMM provisoire au UK - Boursorama
▻https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/forum/1rPVLA/detail/459289186
04 nov. 2021•12:26
La pilule a été homologuée pour les adultes de 18 ans et plus qui ont été testés positifs à la COVID-19 et qui présentent au moins un facteur de risque de développer une maladie grave, comme l’obésité ou une maladie cardiaque.
Le molnupiravir est également en attente d’examen par les organismes de réglementation aux États-Unis, dans l’Union européenne et ailleurs. La Food and Drug Administration des États-Unis a annoncé le mois dernier qu’elle convoquerait un groupe d’experts indépendants pour examiner l’innocuité et l’efficacité de la pilule à la fin du mois de novembre.
Les approvisionnements initiaux seront limités. Merck a déclaré qu’elle pouvait produire 10 millions de traitements jusqu’à la fin de l’année, mais une grande partie de cet approvisionnement a déjà été achetée par les gouvernements du monde entier.
An effective new drug to treat covid-19 emerges from Merck
The Economist | 2021-11-04
~
It hopes to make the drug available in poor countries as well as rich ones
~
Thor, the Norse thunder-god, was reputed to carry a hammer known as Mjollnir—a tool for destroying enemies and blessing friends. The hammer has provided suitable inspiration for the name of a powerful new drug to fight covid-19: molnupiravir. That drug has just been approved by Britain’s national medicines regulatory agency—the first in the world to do so. Molnupiravir, made by Merck, a big pharma firm, and a Florida-based biotech called Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, is the first oral antiviral medicine available to treat covid-19. The approval marks another milestone in the world’s fight against covid-19.
Other countries are also working quickly to approve the new medicine, which has provoked keen interest. Last month the interim results of a trial found that patients with a risk factor for covid-19 were 50% less likely to be hospitalised or die if the oral antibiotic was taken in the first five days after symptoms. Britain has secured 480,000 courses of molnupiravir, and sales of the drug are already brisk. America, Australia, Britain, the Philippines, Indonesia, Japan, New Zealand, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam are some of the countries that have secured deals, or are in the process of doing so.
Demand is likely to be very high. The drug will be used to treat patients who have not been vaccinated, or who remain at high risk despite having had a jab. Doctors now have a medicine to offer those most at risk from covid, which patients can take at home. The drug is also expected to be affordable globally. It is expected that rich countries will pay $700 a course for the drug, but low-income ones will pay something closer to $20—and maybe less as time goes on.
Given the difficulties that low- and middle-income countries have faced in obtaining vaccines this year, it is reasonable to wonder whether rich countries are going to hoard the supply of this new drug, or even prevent it from being exported from the countries in which it is made. That seems unlikely. Since the summer of last year when it bought the rights to the new molecule from Ridgeback, Merck has been looking for ways to make the drug widely available, such was its promise.
Known then as EIDD-2801 the molecule had been shown to inhibit the replication of RNA viruses including SARS-CoV-2 but had not yet been through trials in humans to test its efficacy. As part of its covid-19 response, Merck chose to work on two vaccines and two drugs. With the exception of molnupiravir all its other products failed during development.
Merck increased its own production and has licensed the drug to be made by others. It expects to produce 10m courses of treatment by the end of 2021 and hopes to be able to double manufacturing capacity next year. At the same time, five Indian manufacturers of low-cost generic drugs, including Cipla, Dr Reddy’s and Sun Pharmaceuticals have already signed deals to make generic versions of molnupiravir. Merck says it is also setting aside 3m courses of its own supply for low- and middle-income countries, to make sure not all early supplies are snaffled up by rich countries.
Another notable move came on October 27th. Merck signed a voluntary licensing agreement with the Medicine Patent Pool—a United Nations-backed organisation that negotiates drug licences on behalf of less wealthy countries. The agreement will allow many more firms around the world to manufacture generic versions of molnupiravir. (One lesson of the pandemic has been the need to have a global manufacturing footprint.)
Trevor Mundel, president of global health at the Gates Foundation, says that because many generic drug firms are waiting to gauge demand for molnupiravir in less wealthy countries, the foundation has made $120m available to get manufacturing going. This money will support guarantees to manufacturers that a certain volume of the new drug will be bought. The foundation says it is hoping to speed up production by generic manufacturers, some of which can make as many as 10m courses a month.
In the past year firms such as Pfizer and Moderna have been criticised for the lack of global access to their vaccines and their unwillingness to share the know-how to make them. Will Merck get much thanks for all its generosity? Mr Mundel thinks the speed and global breadth of the launch of molnupiravir will be without precedent in history. If so, that will mark a high-water mark in global health. Not everyone is happy. Médecins Sans Frontières, a humanitarian charity, says the Merck licence from the MPP does not go far enough. James Love, director of Knowledge Ecology International, a “social justice” non-profit, disagrees, saying that the agreement goes further than any other company has done during the pandemic.
Asked how much Merck had invested in its covid-19 research programme so far, the firm would only say “billions”. It is not likely to recoup this soon from low- and middle-income countries. There are also concerns about whether the drug will be safe for everyone to take. Its ability to cause mutations in viruses could also pose a risk to fetal development. Regulatory agencies may thus choose to limit the use of the drug to certain groups for these reasons. Nonetheless, countries struggling to beat down high numbers of covid hospitalisations and deaths, will find molnupiravir a powerful new hammer. ■
Dig deeper
All our stories relating to the pandemic can be found on our coronavirus hub [1]. You can also find trackers showing the global roll-out of vaccines [2], excess deaths by country [3] and the virus’s spread across Europe [4].
[1] ▻https://www.economist.com/news/2020/03/11/the-economists-coverage-of-the-coronavirus
[2] ▻https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/tracking-coronavirus-across-the-world
[3] ▻https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
[4] ▻https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/tracking-coronavirus-across-europe
India’s super-rich flee ’unimaginable horror’ - Asia Times
▻https://asiatimes.com/2021/04/indias-super-rich-flee-unimaginable-horror-in-private-jets
India’s super-rich flee ‘unimaginable horror’British Prime Minister Boris Johnson had to cancel state visit to India next week as a ’precautionary measure’. As the rich and super rich scramble to escape the horrors of the Covid-19 surge in India, airline fares have soared along with the number of private jet charters to foreign nations.According to a report in The London Times, at least eight private jets carrying India’s super wealthy landed in London ahead of the UK’s 4 am ban on travel from India.Both the UK and Canada added India to its “red list” of pandemic-stricken countries. As of Friday, any Britons returning from India must quarantine for 10 days in a government-approved hotel.All non-British or non-Irish citizens will be banned entirely from entering the country if they have been in India in the previous 10 days.According to a report in The Daily Beast, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson had to cancel his own state visit to India scheduled for next week as a “precautionary measure.”The last of the luxury airliners to arrive, VistaJet Bombardier Global 6000, which left Dubai Thursday to collect passengers in Mumbai, landed at 3:15 am, just 44 minutes before the restrictions took place.Meanwhile, the Canadian government has banned passenger flights from India and Pakistan for 30 days, CBC News reported.At a virtual press conference, Transport Minister Omar Alghabra said that because an increasing number of travellers from both countries have been arriving in Canada with Covid-19, all commercial and private passenger flights from those countries will be barred as of 11:30 pm Thursday night.Cargo flights will still be permitted in order to maintain shipments of essential supplies, such as vaccines and personal protective equipment, he said.Alghabra also said air passengers who depart from India or Pakistan but arrive in Canada via a third country will need to produce a negative result on a Covid-19 test taken at their last point of departure before being allowed to enter Canada. According to The Daily Beast, the private jet passengers were fleeing unimaginable horror back home.
At least 14 Covid-19 patients perished in a devastating fire that ripped through an ICU ward in one of India’s overcrowded hospitals about 70 miles outside Mumbai, the report said.Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says suspending incoming passenger flights from India and Pakistan for the next month must be done to keep Canadians safe.
Earlier in the week, an oxygen leak in Maharashtra state, near where the fire broke out, resulted in the death of 24 Covid-19 patients who were on ventilators, the report said.To make terrible matters even worse, India reported its highest one-day number of cases, recording 332,730 new infections in a 24-hour period. In the same period, 2,263 people died with Covid-19.India has been overwhelmed by new cases coupled with a critical shortage of oxygen, hospital beds, and now ventilators, the report said. Many desperate families have been forced to turn to black-market price gougers who have been able to buy hospital space from corrupt administrators.The spike in cases comes as political rallies are still being held and after a month-long religious ceremony continues to bring millions of people to the Ganges River.According to media reports, at least eight private jets carrying India’s super wealthy landed in London ahead of the UK’s 4 am ban on travel from India.
India Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been criticized for not calling a national lockdown to try to mitigate the spread and for hosting rallies ahead of elections in May.Meanwhile, All flights from the UAE to India — one of the world’s busiest air corridors — will be suspended from Sunday onward.
Price comparison websites showed one-way commercial flights from Mumbai to Dubai on Friday and Saturday costing as much as 80,000 rupees (US$1,000), around 10 times the usual rate.Tickets for the New Delhi to Dubai route were going for more than 50,000 rupees, five times the normal level.No tickets were on offer from Sunday when the 10-day flight suspension comes into force.For private jets, the amount of interest was “absolutely crazy,” a spokesman for charter company Air Charter Service India told Agence France-Presse.“We have 12 flights going to Dubai tomorrow and each flight is completely full,” the spokesman said.“I’ve fielded almost 80 enquiries for flying to Dubai today alone,” said a spokesman for Enthral Aviation, another provider.“We have requested more aircraft from abroad to meet the demand … It costs $38,000 to hire a 13-seater jet from Mumbai to Dubai, and $31,000 to hire a six-seater aircraft,” he told AFP.“People are making groups and arranging to share our jets just to get a seat … We’ve had some queries for Thailand but mostly the demand is for Dubai.”The UAE is home to roughly 3.3 million Indians who make up a third of the population — most of them in Dubai, one of the seven emirates that make up the federation. Seats on routes to the United States were still available but with prices substantially higher, in some cases almost double the normal fare.How much does a private jet travel cost?No-frills private travel can cost as little as US$4,000 on a business commuter jet or as much as US$40,000 to have a plane to yourself.Several variables determine how much flying privately costs, chiefly the size of the plane and the number of hours it’s used. A spokesman for Hong Kong-based APERTUS Aviation said renting an ultra long-range private aircraft from Mumbai to London, with a flight time of 09:15, would range from $US125,800 to $US148,600.As a benchmark, the US-based Air Charter Service provides these “hourly” rental estimates for airplane rental in September 2020. Light jet (4 to 6 passengers): $4,000 to $5,500 Medium jet (6 to 9 passengers): $5,500 to $9,500Heavy jet (16 to 19 passengers): $11,000 to $20,000
#Covid-19#migrant#migration#inde#canada#etatsunis#dubai#grandebretagne#sante#elite#circulationtherapeutique#frontiere#inegalite
#Mapping the #deforestation footprint of nations reveals growing threat to #tropical_forests | Nature Ecology & Evolution
▻https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-021-01417-z
▻https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/29/average-westerners-eating-habits-lead-to-loss-of-four-trees-every-year
Average westerner’s eating habits lead to loss of four #trees every year
Research links consumption of foods such as coffee and chocolate to global deforestation
▻https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/03/29/how-rich-countries-cause-deforestation-in-poor-ones
How rich countries cause deforestation in poor ones
Such losses cannot be offset by planting more trees at home
Jabs and jab-nots - There will be enough vaccines for all—if rich countries share | The Economist
▻https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/02/13/there-will-be-enough-vaccines-for-all-if-rich-countries-share
Half of the world’s supply has been reserved for just 15% of its population
Global democracy has a very bad year
La #France classée comme #démocratie_défaillante
... et au 24e rang mondial
... comme déjà pointé par @loutre
La France classée comme démocratie défaillante
Daily chart - Global democracy has a very bad year | Graphic detail | The Economist
►https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/02/02/global-democracy-has-a-very-bad-year
The pandemic caused an unprecedented rollback of democratic freedoms in 2020
Brèves de presse
@Brevesdepresse
🔴 🇲🇫 FLASH -L’indice de démocratie est en recul en #France selon l’étude annuelle de The Economist qui se base notamment sur le pluralisme, les libertés civiques & le fonctionnement du gouvernement. La France est désormais reléguée dans la catégorie des « démocraties défaillantes ».
Daily chart - The Trump administration takes grey wolves off the endangered list | Graphic detail | The Economist
▻https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/11/20/the-trump-administration-takes-grey-wolves-off-the-endangered-list
IT WAS NOT just human candidates such as Joe Biden and Donald Trump who were on the ballot on November 3rd: so were wolves. Coloradans narrowly approved a measure to reintroduce grey wolves to the state by 2023. This latest instalment in America’s wolf wars follows a decision by the Trump administration on October 29th to remove the grey wolf from the country’s endangered-species list. That sounds like a victory for conservation, signalling that wolves no longer need government help to thrive in the wild. Yet the decision has riled conservationists, and pitted them against the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), the agency responsible for enforcing the country’s Endangered Species Act (ESA), which protects vulnerable animals. Why has the decision raised hackles among scientists?
#états-unis #loups #biodiversité #environnement #écologie #endangered_species
Daily chart - The Greenland ice sheet has melted past the point of no return | Graphic detail | The Economist
▻https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/08/25/the-greenland-ice-sheet-has-melted-past-the-point-of-no-return
ANNUAL SNOWFALL can no longer replenish the melted ice that flows into the ocean from Greenland’s glaciers. That is the conclusion of a new analysis of almost 40 years’ satellite data by researchers at Ohio State University. The ice loss, they think, is now so great that it has triggered an irreversible feedback loop: the sheet will keep melting, even if all climate-warming emissions are miraculously curtailed. This is bad news for coastal cities, given that Greenland boasts the largest ice sheet on the planet after Antarctica. Since 2000 its melting ice has contributed about a millimetre a year to rising sea levels. The loss of the entire ice sheet would raise them by more than seven metres, enough to reconfigure the majority of the world’s coastlines.
The Greenland ice sheet has melted past the point of no return
Even if global warming stopped today, the ice would keep shrinking
Graphic detail
Aug 25th 2020
ANNUAL SNOWFALL can no longer replenish the melted ice that flows into the ocean from Greenland’s glaciers. That is the conclusion of a new analysis of almost 40 years’ satellite data by researchers at Ohio State University. The ice loss, they think, is now so great that it has triggered an irreversible feedback loop: the sheet will keep melting, even if all climate-warming emissions are miraculously curtailed. This is bad news for coastal cities, given that Greenland boasts the largest ice sheet on the planet after Antarctica. Since 2000 its melting ice has contributed about a millimetre a year to rising sea levels. The loss of the entire ice sheet would raise them by more than seven metres, enough to reconfigure the majority of the world’s coastlines.
Relevant content - Twitter’s algorithm does not seem to silence conservatives
▻https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/08/01/twitters-algorithm-does-not-seem-to-silence-conservatives
The platform’s recommendation engine appears to favour inflammatory tweets SINCE LAUNCHING a policy on “misleading information” in May, Twitter has clashed with President Donald Trump. When he described mail-in ballots as “substantially fraudulent”, the platform told users to “get the facts” and linked to articles that proved otherwise. After Mr Trump threatened looters with death—“when the looting starts, the shooting starts”—Twitter said his tweet broke its rules against “glorifying violence”. On (...)
#manipulation #algorithme #Twitter #violence #extrême-droite
Daily Chart - How long can the novel coronavirus survive on surfaces and in the air ? | Graphic detail | The Economist
▻https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/03/19/how-long-can-the-novel-coronavirus-survive-on-surfaces-and-in-the-air?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/dailycharthowlongcanthenovelcoronavirussurviveonsurfacesandintheairgraphi
#contamination
Je vais pas m’inscrire pour voir le reste.
A new study shows that SARS-CoV-2 can linger in the air for hours and on some materials for days
AT A TIME when many people have taken to washing hands and sanitising the objects they hold dear—frequently—a pesky question has loomed. How long does the SARS-CoV-2 virus stick around? A new paper in the New England Journal of Medicine, one of the first to examine the lifespan of the virus on common surfaces, offers some answers.
Like the common cold, covid-19 spreads through virus-laden droplets of moisture released when an infected person coughs, sneezes or merely exhales. A team of researchers, including scientists from America’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, simulated how an infected individual might spread the virus in the air and on plastic, cardboard, stainless steel and copper. They then measured how long the virus remained infectious in those environments.
They found that SARS-CoV-2 stays more stable on plastic and steel than on cardboard or copper. Traces of the virus were detected on plastic and steel up to three days after contamination. SARS-CoV-2 survived on cardboard for up to one day. On copper, the most hostile surface tested, it lasted just four hours (see chart). In the air, the team found that the virus can stick around for at least three hours. In the air, as elsewhere, the virus’s ability to infect people diminished sharply over time. In the air, for instance, its estimated median half-life—the time it takes for half of the virus particles to become inactive—was just over an hour. And the levels of the virus that do remain in the air are not high enough to pose a risk to most people who are not in the immediate vicinity of an infected person.
These findings are likely to assuage some fears. Homebound consumers worried about contagion from cardboard delivery boxes may have less to worry about the next time Amazon rings (unless they are used to same-day delivery). At the same time, the findings will amplify concerns about airborne transmission, which some experts had not considered possible. The research may change the way medical workers interact with infected patients, who with close contact may transmit the virus onto protective gear.
Why the virus can survive longer on some surfaces rather than others still remains something of a mystery. Maybe it has to do with the consistency of the object playing host to the virus. Cardboard, of course, is much more porous than steel, plastic or copper. But the authors noted that there was more variation in their experiment for cardboard than for other surfaces, and the results should be interpreted with caution. No doubt consumers are used to treating their surroundings that way by now.
Before their time - Would most covid-19 victims have died soon, without the virus? | The Economist
▻https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/05/02/would-most-covid-19-victims-have-died-soon-without-the-virus
“Sacrifice the weak”, urged a sign at a protest against Tennessee’s lockdown on April 20th—though whether the person holding it was trolling the other protesters is unknown. Some claim social distancing is pointless, since covid-19’s elderly victims would soon have died of other causes. In Britain many pundits have said that two-thirds of the country’s dead were already within a year of passing away. They cite an estimate made in March by Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London who advises the government.
Mr Ferguson notes that two-thirds was the upper bound of his estimate, and that the real fraction could be much lower. He says it is “very hard” to measure how ill covid-19’s victims were before catching it, and how long they might have lived otherwise. However, a study by researchers from a group of Scottish universities has attempted to do so. They found that the years of life lost (ylls) for the average Briton or Italian who passed away was probably around 11, meaning that few of covid-19’s victims would have died soon otherwise.
First the authors analysed data for 6,801 Italian victims, grouped by age and sex for confidentiality. About 40% of men were older than 80, as were 60% of women. (The virus has killed fewer women than men, perhaps because they have different immune responses.) The authors excluded the 1% of victims under 50. Then they calculated how much longer these cohorts would normally survive. Life expectancies for old people are surprisingly high, even when they have underlying conditions, because many of the unhealthiest have already passed away. For example, an average Italian 80-year-old will reach 90. The ylls from this method were 11.5 for Italian men and 10.9 for women.
Then the authors accounted for other illnesses the victims had, in case they were unusually frail for their age. For 710 Italians, they could see how many had a specific long-term condition, such as hypertension or cancer. The authors used a smaller Scottish sample to estimate how often each combination of diseases occurs among covid-19 victims. Finally, they analysed data for 850,000 Welsh people, to predict how long somebody with a given age and set of conditions would normally live.
Strikingly, the study shows that in this hybrid European model, people killed by covid-19 had only slightly higher rates of underlying illness than everyone else their age. When the authors adjusted for pre-existing conditions and then simulated deaths using normal Italian life expectancies, the ylls dropped just a little, to 11.1 for men and 10.2 for women. (They were slightly lower for Britons.) Fully 20% of the dead were reasonably healthy people in their 50s and 60s, who were expected to live for another 25 years on average.
The researchers warn that their data exclude people who died in care homes, who might have been especially sickly. Nor can they account for the severity of underlying illnesses. For example, covid-19 victims might have had particularly acute lung or heart conditions. More complete data could produce a lower estimate of ylls. Mr Ferguson also points out that tallies of all-cause mortality will contain clues. If the pandemic has merely hastened imminent deaths, there should be fewer than usual once covid-19 is under control.
Still, the available evidence suggests that many covid-19 victims were far from death’s door previously, and cut down at least a decade before their time. Allowing the virus to spread freely would sacrifice the strong as well as the weak. ■
Sources: “Covid-19 – exploring the implications of long-term condition type and extent of multimorbidity on years of life lost: a modelling study”, by P Hanlon, F Chadwick, A Shah et al., 2020; Istituto Superiore di Sanità (Italy); SAIL Databank (Wales); Public Health Scotland
This article appeared in the Graphic detail section of the print edition under the headline “Before their time”
Daily Chart - China’s data reveal a puzzling link between covid-19 cases and political events | Graphic detail | The Economist
▻https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/07/chinas-data-reveal-a-puzzling-link-between-covid-19-cases-and-political-e
Erratic infection numbers raise questions about the accuracy of the country’s statistics
EVER SINCE the new coronavirus started to spread beyond China’s borders, the country’s official tally of infections has served as a grim benchmark for the outbreaks that followed. On March 26th the count in China was surpassed by that in America, now the centre of the pandemic. Since then China’s total, now close to 83,000, has also been overtaken by those of Italy, Spain, Germany and France.
But there is growing suspicion that China’s official statistics on the covid-19 pandemic cannot be trusted. On March 24th China’s prime minister, Li Keqiang, came close to admitting that the numbers had been miscounted when he warned officials that “there must be no concealing or under-reporting.” Classified reports to Congress from American intelligence agencies have concluded that the numbers of both cases and deaths from the disease in China are much higher than the official government figures would suggest.
Such scepticism may be deserved. An analysis by The Economist of data reported by China’s National Health Commission reveals two peculiar features. First, the data are volatile. Across the nine Chinese provinces with serious outbreaks, we identified 15 episodes in which new cases of covid-19 jumped by more than 20% in a single day, before quickly returning to earlier levels. Although such spikes can occur in any dataset—because of erratic record-keeping, for example—we found that other countries and regions with covid-19 outbreaks, of a similar size to these provinces, have experienced fewer. Second, when spikes occur, they are often accompanied by important decisions by government officials. Of the 15 such episodes observed in the data, two-thirds appeared to occur within a day of the sacking of a provincial official or other significant political event.
Take Hubei, the province hit hardest by covid-19. On February 9th the region reported a 27% increase in new infections. On the next two days, new cases declined by 20% and 22%, respectively. Then on February 12th they surged by a whopping 742% to almost 14,000, before immediately falling back sharply. Chinese authorities say the spike was caused by revisions to the government’s methodology for counting cases. But these changes were introduced nearly a week earlier and were reversed seven days after the spike (see chart). An alternative explanation for the surge in new cases on February 12th was another event, announced the next day: the sacking of the party chiefs of both Hubei and its capital city, Wuhan.
Other spikes in new covid-19 cases have also coincided with changes in personnel or policy announcements. On January 27th officials in Zhejiang province held a press conference detailing the opening of 335 clinics and a 1,000-bed hospital to accommodate a surge of patients. The next day, new cases nearly tripled to 123, before declining sharply in the next few days. On February 20th authorities in Shandong province sacked the chief of the provincial justice department. That same day new covid-19 cases at a local prison jumped from two to 200, and then immediately returned to two the next day.
Although most of these episodes occurred independently of one another, we identified one day when cases jumped in several places. On February 3rd every Chinese province with a sizeable outbreak of covid-19—at least 50 new infections per day—suffered a big increase in new cases (the mean was 35%). This was the only day during the epidemic on which this happened. One possible explanation came two weeks later, when it was revealed that on the same day President Xi Jinping, in a speech to the Standing Committee of the Politburo, had called on authorities battling the virus to “face up to existing problems” and “release authoritative information in a timely manner”.
Do these data prove that China manipulated its covid-19 data, or that the country’s official tally of cases and deaths is lower than it should be? No. But the unusual spikes in new cases, and the curious way their timing matches political developments, are bound to raise questions about their accuracy.
Daily chart - Will the coronavirus lockdown lead to a baby boom? | Graphic detail | The Economist
▻https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/03/will-the-coronavirus-lockdown-lead-to-a-baby-boom
Deadly epidemics seem to depress birth rates in the short term
AS PEOPLE around the world distance themselves from one another to slow the spread of covid-19, many couples under lockdown find themselves closer than ever. The opportunity has not been lost on Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president. In a television appearance last month, Mr Zelensky, like most other world leaders, asked citizens to stay at home. He then called on his compatriots to take advantage of the enforced intimacy to boost the country’s shrinking population: by making babies.
The notion that the world may witness a coronavirus “baby boom” in nine months time is not as far-fetched as it may seem. Such predictions are common after disasters, particularly those in which citizens are ordered to shelter in place. Extreme weather events are a prime example: spikes in births were anticipated after Hurricane Sandy (2013), snowstorms in New York state (2015) and hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria (2017). A paper published in 2008 found that hurricanes and tropical storms are indeed associated with increased birth rates after nine months.
Le papier (librement accessible, très technique, pas UN graphique pour représenter l’effet…)
The fertility effect of catastrophe : U.S. hurricane births
▻http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/hu/fertility_jpope2010.pdf
Abstract Anecdotal evidence has suggested increased fertility rates resulting from catastrophic events in an area. In this paper, we measure this fertility effect using storm advisory data and fertility data for the Atlantic and Gulf- coast counties of the USA. We find that low-severity storm advisories are associated with a positive and significant fertility effect and that high-severity advisories have a significant negative fertility effect. As the type of advisory goes from least severe to most severe, the fertility effect of the specific advisory type decreases monotonically from positive to negative. We also find some other interesting demographic effects.
Daily chart - Diseases like covid-19 are deadlier in non-democracies | Graphic detail | The Economist
▻https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/02/18/diseases-like-covid-19-are-deadlier-in-non-democracies
de la régression log-log et de la classification binaire entre "démocraties et « non-démocraties », un cas d’école pour @simplicissimus
#coronavirus et #information
#merci !
joli exercice de régression. Si le résultat de l’exercice donne une différence entre les deux types de régime « hautement significative statistiquement », il y a vraiment beaucoup de choses à dire sur son utilisation « politique ».
Note : j’arrive à retrouver sans trop de problèmes les données en utilisant les deux sources mentionnées, ce qui donne un nuage de points a priori à peu près similaire (mais il faudrait voir dans le détail…) ; mais je ne dispose pas d’une classification des pays par année et par type de régime.
Apparemment, il s’agit de l’ensemble des désastres biologiques, soit les épidémies, celles-ci pouvant être bactériennes, parasitaires ou virales.
Entre 1960 et 2020, je trouve 1026 « désastres biologiques » ayant provoqué au moins 1 mort (il y en a 187 où le nombre de décès n’est pas renseigné) et quelques anomalies (ex. 523 morts pour 2 épidémies virales en Afghanistan en 2000 pour 11 personnes atteintes (affected) soit 4750% de mortalité… Il y a aussi 91 pays (dont la Martinique en 2010) pour lesquels le PNB/hab. n’est pas connu.
Le modèle utilisé établit donc un lien entre la mortalité de l’épidémie, donc une sorte de réponse sociale au désastre en fonction de la richesse du pays, en fait sa capacité à produire et son type de régime. Indépendamment donc du type de l’épidémie et de la létalité de l’agent pathogène. Avec un effet en niveau (il y a moins de morts dans les démocraties) et en pente (le surcroît de richesse diminue plus la mortalité dans les démocraties).
Je remarque, en premier, qu’il y a très probablement déjà un lien entre PNB/hab. et type de régime. Et qu’un facteur prépondérant de la réponse est la qualité du système de santé du pays (elle aussi, certainement corrélée au PNB/hab. ce qui fait que les auteurs pourraient affirmer que le PNB/hab. est un bon substitut, mais pour laquelle le lien avec le régime politique n’est pas forcément aussi clair).
Surtout, si la liaison statistique est hautement significative (les zones colorées nous montrent l’incertitude sur les droites de régression) la capacité prédictive du modèle est vraiment faible. Il n’y a qu’a voir la très grande dispersion des observations autour des 2 droites. De ce fait, les performances du modèle utilisé comme classificateur (prévoir le type de régime en fonction de la mortalité et de la richesse) seraient, me sembleraient, vraiment mauvaises. (calculs à faire…)
Enfin, il est probable que les pays à la plus forte richesse (> 30 000 $/hab.) soient déterminants (points influents) dans le résultat des deux régressions.
La variable année me semble aussi bizarrement absente du « modèle », alors qu’il me semble qu’un trait important de cette histoire est qu’à chaque épisode on apprend à mieux gérer, ce qui fonctionne et ne fonctionne pas.
En tout cas ça va à l’encontre de l’idée de la « bonne dictature », avec un effet présenté comme négatif (même si on peut argumenter sur la classification à priori et tout un tas d’autres choses).
C’est toujours binaire et tendancieux, la définition d’une dictature. #démocrature
Oui, le PNB/tête est aussi corrélé avec le temps (en gros, à quelques exceptions près, depuis 1960, ça croît) et donc, il y a confusion des facteurs et on ne peut pas isoler ce qui vient de l’avancement du temps (expérience accumulée) de ce qui vient de la « richesse » ou de l’amélioration (ou la meilleure préparation) du système de santé.
Daily chart - Donald Trump is appointing federal judges at a blistering pace | Graphic detail | The Economist
▻https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/02/14/donald-trump-is-appointing-federal-judges-at-a-blistering-pace
Comme on peut s’en douter, les amateurs de rap ont voté Obama, et les amateurs de country ont voté Trump. Mais, plus intéressant, ce sont les amateurs de hard rock qui ont fait pencher la balance, en votant Obama en 2012 et Trump en 2016 !
Why Obama-Trump swing voters like heavy metal
The Economist, le 16 novembre 2019
▻https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/11/16/why-obama-trump-swing-voters-like-heavy-metal
Ou sur twitter :
▻https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1195012997682487303
#Musique #Musique_et_politique #USA #Barack_Obama #Donald_Trump #rap #country #hard_rock #heavy_metal #élections #vote
