The World Might Actually Run Out of People — John Ibbitson & Darrell Bricker (WIRED)
the UN forecasting model inputs three things: fertility rates, migration rates, and death rates. It doesn’t take into account the expansion of education for females or the speed of urbanization
(…) adding one new variable to the forecast: the level of improvement in female education. (…) if you change how someone thinks about reproduction, you change everything.
(…) We polled 26 countries asking women how many kids they want, and no matter where you go the answer tends to be around two. The external forces that used to dictate people having bigger families are disappearing everywhere. And that’s happening fastest in developing countries. In the Philippines, for example, fertility rates dropped from 3.7 percent to 2.7 percent from 2003 to 2018.