• Free exchange - How to think about moral hazard during a pandemic | Finance and economics | The Economist
    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/04/25/how-to-think-about-moral-hazard-during-a-pandemic

    Economists are rightly relaxed about the risks for now

    Covid-19 confronts humanity with a host of testing moral decisions. When hospital capacity is limited, which patients should get access to life-saving equipment? For how long should virus-limiting restrictions on public activity remain in place, given the immense cost of such measures? To this list, some add another: how generous should public assistance to struggling households and firms be, when such aid could encourage the abuse of state-provided safety-nets? Worries like these, concerning what social scientists call #moral_hazard, have been relatively muted during the pandemic, and appropriately so. But hard questions about risk and responsibility cannot be put off for ever.

    #risque #aléa_moral et #pandémie, mais aussi #changement_climatique

    ping @freakonometrics

  • Covid in the camps - Migrant workers in cramped Gulf dorms fear infection | Middle East and Africa | The Economist
    #Covid-19#Qatar#Golfe#travail#migrant#migration

    https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/04/23/migrant-workers-in-cramped-gulf-dorms-fear-infection

    FOR WELL-OFF foreigners in Qatar, as in other Gulf states, social distancing is almost a way of life. Comfortable salaries pay for suburban villas or seaside flats; private cars are ubiquitous. For the labourers who make up the bulk of Qatar’s 2.8m people, though, it is all but impossible. In the Industrial Area, a working-class district south-west of Doha, the capital, some residents sleep eight to a room, with scores of men sharing bathrooms and kitchens. Such living conditions are the perfect environment for a virus to spread.

    The six members of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) acted early to contain the novel coronavirus. By mid-March most had begun to impose restrictions on movement and travel. But after weeks of slow growth, new cases are rising quickly. Confirmed infections in Saudi Arabia more than doubled in the week from April 14th. Qatar has more cases than Ukraine, which is 16 times more populous. Although GCC governments do not release data on the nationalities of those infected, anecdotal evidence suggests that the virus is spreading fastest among labourers.

    Qatar has received most attention. On March 11th it reported 238 cases of the virus in a single residential compound in the Industrial Area, home to more than 360,000 people. It sealed off dozens of streets, an area of nine square kilometres (3.5 square miles). Workers, put on leave, were allowed out only to buy food or other essentials.

    State media in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which have been in a diplomatic spat with Qatar since 2017, enthusiastically covered the outbreak as proof of Qatari callousness. But the situation is the same in other Gulf states. The Saudi health ministry said on April 5th that 53% of confirmed cases involved foreigners. The share is probably higher now: migrants account for about four in five recent cases. The holy city of Mecca, with a large population of foreigners, has more confirmed infections than Riyadh, a city three times the size. Doctors in the UAE report a similar trend among migrants.

    Governments have taken some laudable steps. Testing is free for labourers, and health ministries have been serious about expanding it. Qatar has carried out 70,000 tests. The UAE is doing more than 25,000 a day. Most countries have also pledged to pay for covid-19 treatment regardless of the patient’s nationality. But they have done far less about the teeming environments in which millions of migrants live and work.

    Almost everything in Dubai is closed. Anyone leaving home must apply for a permit granted for a few essential purposes. Only one family member may travel; speed cameras on the highways are used to catch outlaws. Construction workers are exempted from the lockdown, however. They pile onto buses to and from job sites. Contractors have limited the number of passengers, but it is hard to keep two metres apart. Workers on Qatar’s football World Cup stadiums and Dubai’s World Expo facilities have been diagnosed with the virus.

    Other workers have the opposite problem. Entire sectors of the economy, from hospitality to retail, are closed. Thousands of employees have already been dismissed or furloughed. Their numbers will grow: migrants are the first to lose their jobs during a downturn. The IMF’s latest forecast is a 2% contraction in Saudi Arabia this year and 4% in Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE. It was released before the recent meltdown in oil markets, so even those numbers may prove too rosy. Charities are already answering calls from migrants who struggle to afford food.

    Gulf states would like to send the newly unemployed home. But their home countries are not always eager to take back (and quarantine) thousands of jobless citizens. India, which supplies millions of workers to the Gulf, went into lockdown on March 25th and halted all commercial flights. It says it cannot bring back all its citizens until the measures end, no earlier than May 3rd. The UAE’s labour ministry has threatened to limit the number of future work visas for countries that “have not been responsive” about repatriating their citizens. Ethiopia is quietly grumbling about a wave of deportations from Saudi Arabia.

    State media have tried to downplay any discrimination. One gauzy ad from the UAE tells foreigners that they are part of a “family” of 10m. But some prominent figures have denounced migrants as a vector for disease. Hayat al-Fahad, a Kuwaiti actress, said in a television interview that the country was “fed up” with the foreigners who make up two-thirds of the population and suggested putting them in the desert. An Emirati social-media personality defended her comments by explaining that she only meant Asian labourers: “Do you expect that we…equate a Bengali worker with an Egyptian worker? God forbid!” (Many Gulf citizens criticised both their remarks.)

    The social contract in the GCC has always been transactional. Foreigners are paid more than they would earn in their home countries. Even unskilled labourers toiling in the heat make enough to send back remittances. In return they accept a state of permanent transience. Residency is tied to employment: no matter how long you work in the Gulf, you will probably have to leave once you cease being useful. Even wealthy expats are being reminded that they are outsiders. Many of those who happened to be travelling when the lockdown began now cannot get back to their homes in Qatar or Dubai. Some are separated from spouses or parents. Far from bringing people together, the virus underscores how far apart they are. ■

  • A pandemic of power grabs - Autocrats see opportunity in disaster | Leaders | The Economist
    https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/04/23/autocrats-see-opportunity-in-disaster?fsrc=newsletter

    The world is distracted and the public need saving. It is a strongman’s dream ALL THE world’s attention is on covid-19. Perhaps it was a coincidence that China chose this moment to tighten its control around disputed reefs in the South China Sea, arrest the most prominent democrats in Hong Kong and tear a hole in Hong Kong’s Basic Law (see article). But perhaps not. Rulers everywhere have realised that now is the perfect time to do outrageous things, safe in the knowledge that the rest of the (...)

    #activisme #surveillance #santé #pauvreté #COVID-19 #domination #manipulation #journalisme #censure (...)

    ##santé ##pauvreté ##algorithme

  • Regulating the internet giants - The world’s most valuable resource is no longer oil, but data | Leaders | The Economist
    https://www.economist.com/leaders/2017/05/06/the-worlds-most-valuable-resource-is-no-longer-oil-but-data

    The data economy demands a new approach to antitrust rules A NEW commodity spawns a lucrative, fast-growing industry, prompting antitrust regulators to step in to restrain those who control its flow. A century ago, the resource in question was oil. Now similar concerns are being raised by the giants that deal in data, the oil of the digital era. These titans—Alphabet (Google’s parent company), Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft—look unstoppable. They are the five most valuable listed firms (...)

    #Alphabet #publicité #marketing #consommation #BigData #prédiction #métadonnées #géolocalisation #smartphone #Aadhaar #algorithme #WhatsApp #Facebook #Amazon #GE_Capital #Tesla #Nokia_Siemens #Microsoft #Google (...)

    ##publicité ##Apple

  • Creating the coronopticon - Countries are using apps and data networks to keep tabs on the pandemic | Briefing | The Economist
    https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/03/26/countries-are-using-apps-and-data-networks-to-keep-tabs-on-the-pandemic?f

    And also, in the process, their citizens HAVING BEEN quarantined at his parents’ house in the Hebei province in northern China for a month, Elvis Liu arrived back home in Hong Kong on February 23rd. Border officials told him to add their office’s number to his WhatsApp contacts and to fix the app’s location-sharing setting to “always on”, which would let them see where his phone was at all times. They then told him to get home within two hours, close the door and stay there for two weeks. His (...)

    #ByteDance #Deutsche_Telekom #Google #ShinBet #Tencent #Facebook #GoogleMaps #WeChat #WhatsApp #algorithme #Alipay #Android #Bluetooth #QRcode #smartphone #TraceTogether #géolocalisation #BigData #santé (...)

    ##santé ##surveillance
    https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20200328_FBD001_0.jpg

  • America’s nightmare - Bernie Sanders, nominee | The Economist
    https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/02/27/bernie-sanders-nominee

    (…) If Mr Sanders becomes the Democratic nominee, America will have to choose in November between a corrupt, divisive, right-wing populist, who scorns the rule of law and the constitution, and a sanctimonious, divisive, left-wing populist, who blames a cabal of billionaires and businesses for everything that is wrong with the world. All this when the country is as peaceful and prosperous as at any time in its history. It is hard to think of a worse choice. Wake up, America!

  • Bolivia Crisis Shows the Blurry Line Between Coup and Uprising
    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/12/world/americas/bolivia-evo-morales-coup.html

    Often, they are one and the same: mass public uprisings alongside military defections that compel the resignation or removal of a country’s leader.

    But the overlapping terms often carry moral connotations that could not be more divergent: Coups, in today’s understanding, are to be condemned; revolts are to be championed.

    “People who get hung up on whether or not something is a coup or a revolution are missing the point,” said Naunihal Singh, a leading scholar of power transitions and coups. “The question is what happens next.”

    That has opened space for a kind of linguistic warfare, in which a political takeover can be portrayed as legitimate by labeling it a revolt, or illegitimate by terming it a coup.

    The narrative-building “has consequences” for what kind of government comes next, Mr. Singh said. Transitions like Bolivia’s tend to be fluid and unpredictable. The perception of legitimacy, or a lack thereof, can be decisive.

    • C’est assez largement du flan, cette idée que la proximité entre « coup » et « soulèvement » serait nouvelle. Ça a toujours été comme ça, et ça fait partie de mode d’emploi des coups soutenus par les Américains.

      Relire les prémices du renversement d’Allende au Chili :
      https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%89tat_du_11_septembre_1973_au_Chili
      Le coup fait suite à des mois et des mois de crise, avec beaucoup de manifestations et de blocages. Et une bonne partie des médias occidentaux (j’ai vu passer une copie de The Economist d’époque, récemment, à ce sujet – quasiment les mêmes fadaises qu’aujourd’hui), en ont profité pour mettre la responsabilité du coup sur Allende, en présentant son renversement comme le fruit d’un authentique soulèvement populaire.

      Rien de nouveau sous le soleil. À part que le NY Times n’a guère d’autre choix que de faire semblant de s’interroger (s’agit-il un peu d’un coup, ou un peu d’un soulèvement populaire ?).

    • Merci @Nidal, je ne savais pas comment le prendre : « le NYT fait semblant de s’interroger », c’est parfait.

      The Economist ne fait pas semblant.

      Was there a coup in Bolivia ? - The end of Evo Morales
      https://www.economist.com/leaders/2019/11/16/was-there-a-coup-in-bolivia

      Evo Morales (…) resigned on November 10th, fleeing into exile in Mexico. This prompted a chorus of denunciations of a coup from the Latin American left and even some European social democrats. This time, at least, the critics are wrong.

      True, Mr Morales’s term was not due to end until January. His fall followed violent protests and a mutiny by the police, who failed to suppress them. The final straw came when the head of the armed forces “suggested” that he quit. But that is to tell only a fraction of the story.

      Mr Morales, who is of Aymara indigenous descent, long enjoyed broad popular support. He imposed a new constitution, which limited presidents to two terms. Thanks to the commodity boom and his pragmatic economic policy, poverty fell sharply. He created a more inclusive society.

      But he also commandeered the courts and the electoral authority and was often ruthless with opponents. In his determination to remain in power he made the classic strongman’s mistake of losing touch with the street. In 2016 he narrowly lost a referendum to abolish presidential term limits. He got the constitutional court to say he could run for a third term anyway. He then claimed victory in a dubious election last month. That triggered the uprising. An outside audit upheld the opposition’s claims of widespread irregularities. His offer to re-run the election came too late.

      Mr Morales was thus the casualty of a counter-revolution aimed at defending democracy and the constitution against electoral fraud and his own illegal candidacy. The army withdrew its support because it was not prepared to fire on people in order to sustain him in power. How these events will come to be viewed depends in part on what happens now. An opposition leader has taken over as interim president and called for a fresh election to be held in a matter of weeks. There are two big risks in this. One is that ultras in the opposition try to erase the good things Mr Morales stood for as well as the bad. The other is that his supporters seek to destabilise the interim government and boycott the election. It may take outside help to ensure a fair contest.

      That the army had to play a role is indeed troubling. But the issue at stake in Bolivia was what should happen, in extremis, when an elected president deploys the power of the state against the constitution. In Mr Morales’s resignation and the army’s forcing of it, Bolivia has set an example for Venezuela and Nicaragua, though it is one that is unlikely to be heeded. In the past it was right-wing strongmen who refused to leave power when legally obliged to do so. Now it is often those on the left. Their constant invocation of coups tends to be a smokescreen for their own flouting of the rules. It should be examined with care.

      The Economist avait aussi approuvé sans aucun état d’âme les conquêtes coloniales les plus sanglantes de l’Empire britannique. À lire dans le @mdiplo de novembre (en accès libre). https://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/2019/11/ZEVIN/60958

  • Free exchange - A scholar of inequality ponders the future of capitalism | Finance and economics | The Economist

    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/10/31/a-scholar-of-inequality-ponders-the-future-of-capitalism

    Fin d’époque. SI même The Economist se met à douter du capitalisme et du libre-échange à outrance, où va-t-on ?

    WHEN COMMUNISM fell, that was supposed to be that. History would continue, but arguments about how to organise society seemed to have been settled. Yet even as capitalism has strengthened its hold on the global economy, history’s verdict has come to seem less final. In a new book, “Capitalism, Alone”, Branko Milanovic of the Stone Centre on Socioeconomic Inequality at the City University of New York argues that this unification of humankind under a single social system lends support to the view of history as a march towards progress. But the belief that liberal capitalism will prove to be the destination has been weakened by financial and political dysfunction in the rich world, and by the rise of China. Its triumph cannot be taken for granted.

  • A massive money-laundering scandal stains the image of Nordic banks - Northern blights
    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/10/17/a-massive-money-laundering-scandal-stains-the-image-of-nordic-banks

    The money-laundering crisis is the most damaging yet for Danske, and for other Nordic banks allegedly involved. Last year the Organised Crime and Corruption Reporting Project, a group of investigative journalists, gave Danske its “Corrupt Actor of the Year” award.

    #blanchiment #banques #Danemark #pays_nordiques #air_du_temps