• China coronavirus : Death toll rises as disease spreads - BBC News
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51245680

    Earlier, when the death toll was 17, information from China’s National Health Commission said the youngest person who died from the virus was 48 and the oldest was 89.
    But 15 of the 17 were over 60, and more than half suffered from other chronic diseases including Parkinson’s and diabetes. Just four were women.

    Comme pour les épidémies précédentes (et la grippe saisonnière…) les décès concernent majoritairement des patients âgés pour lesquels le virus vient compliquer d’autres pathologies.

    Comme d’habitude également, la mortalité spécifique, ie le nombre de décès rapporté aux cas confirmés, est très largement surestimée le nombre de cas réels d’infection étant totalement impossible à connaître ; en particulier tout ceux ne provoquant que des symptômes bénins qui passent (et passeront) sous le radar.

    • Coronavirus : le bilan monte à 56 morts en Chine
      https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/01/26/coronavirus-le-bilan-monte-a-54-morts-en-chine_6027240_3244.html
      Le Monde avec AFP
      Publié le 26/01/20 à 01h24, mis à jour à 09h58

      L’inquiétude grimpe encore d’un cran en Chine. Quinze nouveaux décès dus à l’épidémie de pneumonie virale ont été enregistrés dimanche 26 janvier, portant le bilan à 56 morts, et 688 nouveaux cas d’infections au coronavirus ont été confirmés, soit un total de 1 975 dans le pays, a annoncé la commission nationale de la santé.

      L’épidémie a notamment fait un mort à Shanghai, a annoncé dimanche le gouvernement local dans un communiqué, la première victime dans la grande métropole financière de l’est du pays. La victime est un homme de 88 ans qui avait déjà des problèmes de santé avant.

    • et yapakmoakildi : le CDC -> #still_unclear

      Novel Coronavirus 2019 Situation Summary, Wuhan, China | CDC
      https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html

      Early on, many of the patients in the outbreak in Wuhan, China reportedly had some link to a large seafood and animal market, suggesting animal-to-person spread. However, a growing number of patients reportedly have not had exposure to animal markets, suggesting person-to-person spread is occurring. At this time, it’s unclear how easily or sustainably this virus is spreading between people.

      Both MERS and SARS have been known to cause severe illness in people. The situation with regard to 2019-nCoV is still unclear. While severe illness, including illness resulting in a number of deaths has been reported in China, other patients have had milder illness and been discharged.

    • As China reports a jump in coronavirus-related deaths — here’s how the illness has spread around the world so rapidly - MarketWatch
      https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-mysterious-coronavirus-from-china-has-spread-so-quickly-2020-01

      A new study in the Lancet said this new strain is similar to SARS-related coronaviruses found in Chinese horseshoe bats
      […]
      But more severe coronaviruses can become more serious and progress to pneumonia. “Human coronaviruses can sometimes cause lower-respiratory tract illnesses, such as pneumonia or bronchitis,” it added. “This is more common in people with cardiopulmonary disease, people with weakened immune systems, infants, and older adults. Two other human coronaviruses, MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV have been known to frequently cause severe symptoms.”
      […]
      A new study published in the Lancet looking at five of six family members with the virus said the it’s spreading from person to person, rather than exclusively from animals or infected food, and can be transmitted in social, family and even hospital environments. It also now being spread by people who have not been to Wuhan. “This is a novel coronavirus, which is closest to the bat severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-related coronaviruses found in Chinese horseshoe bats.”

    • A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster - The Lancet
      https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30154-9/abstract


      Figure 1 Chronology of symptom onset of the Shenzhen family cluster and their contacts in Wuhan
      Dates filled in red are the dates on which patients 1–6 had close contacts with their relatives (relatives 1–5). Dates filled in yellow are the dates on which patients 3–6 stayed with patient 7. The boxes with an internal red cross are the dates on which patients 1 and 3 or relatives 1, 2, and 3 had stayed overnight (white boxes) at or had visited (blue boxes) the hospital in which relative 1 was admitted for febrile pneumonia. The information of relatives 1–5 was provided by patient 3. No virological data were available.

      Summary
      Background
      An ongoing outbreak of pneumonia associated with a novel coronavirus was reported in Wuhan city, Hubei province, China. Affected patients were geographically linked with a local wet market as a potential source. No data on person-to-person or nosocomial transmission have been published to date.

      Methods
      In this study, we report the epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, radiological, and microbiological findings of five patients in a family cluster who presented with unexplained pneumonia after returning to Shenzhen, Guangdong province, China, after a visit to Wuhan, and an additional family member who did not travel to Wuhan. Phylogenetic analysis of genetic sequences from these patients were done.

      Findings
      From Jan 10, 2020, we enrolled a family of six patients who travelled to Wuhan from Shenzhen between Dec 29, 2019 and Jan 4, 2020. Of six family members who travelled to Wuhan, five were identified as infected with the novel coronavirus. Additionally, one family member, who did not travel to Wuhan, became infected with the virus after several days of contact with four of the family members. None of the family members had contacts with Wuhan markets or animals, although two had visited a Wuhan hospital. Five family members (aged 36–66 years) presented with fever, upper or lower respiratory tract symptoms, or diarrhoea, or a combination of these 3–6 days after exposure. They presented to our hospital (The University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen) 6–10 days after symptom onset. They and one asymptomatic child (aged 10 years) had radiological ground-glass lung opacities. Older patients (aged >60 years) had more systemic symptoms, extensive radiological ground-glass lung changes, lymphopenia, thrombocytopenia, and increased C-reactive protein and lactate dehydrogenase levels. The nasopharyngeal or throat swabs of these six patients were negative for known respiratory microbes by point-of-care multiplex RT-PCR, but five patients (four adults and the child) were RT-PCR positive for genes encoding the internal RNA-dependent RNA polymerase and surface Spike protein of this novel coronavirus, which were confirmed by Sanger sequencing. Phylogenetic analysis of these five patients’ RT-PCR amplicons and two full genomes by next-generation sequencing showed that this is a novel coronavirus, which is closest to the bat severe acute respiatory syndrome (SARS)-related coronaviruses found in Chinese horseshoe bats.

      Interpretation
      Our findings are consistent with person-to-person transmission of this novel coronavirus in hospital and family settings, and the reports of infected travellers in other geographical regions.

    • C’est un peu tôt, non ?

      À mon avis, pas grand chose à changer pour le moment. Sauf la bizarrerie coréenne sur la très forte surreprésentation des 20-29 ans dans les malades et les décès. Toujours une (très) grande incertitude sur les chiffres et donc sur la létalité.

    • Apparemment pas trop tôt pour blanchir la pauvre petite Buzyn et le général Macron :) L’écriture de l’histoire est en marche. D’où ce tag pour se souvenir de ce qu’on pensait déjà pouvoir dire avant le 14 février.