• Daily chart - Will the coronavirus lockdown lead to a baby boom? | Graphic detail | The Economist
    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/03/will-the-coronavirus-lockdown-lead-to-a-baby-boom

    Deadly epidemics seem to depress birth rates in the short term

    AS PEOPLE around the world distance themselves from one another to slow the spread of covid-19, many couples under lockdown find themselves closer than ever. The opportunity has not been lost on Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president. In a television appearance last month, Mr Zelensky, like most other world leaders, asked citizens to stay at home. He then called on his compatriots to take advantage of the enforced intimacy to boost the country’s shrinking population: by making babies.

    The notion that the world may witness a coronavirus “baby boom” in nine months time is not as far-fetched as it may seem. Such predictions are common after disasters, particularly those in which citizens are ordered to shelter in place. Extreme weather events are a prime example: spikes in births were anticipated after Hurricane Sandy (2013), snowstorms in New York state (2015) and hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria (2017). A paper published in 2008 found that hurricanes and tropical storms are indeed associated with increased birth rates after nine months.

    • Le papier (librement accessible, très technique, pas UN graphique pour représenter l’effet…)
      The fertility effect of catastrophe : U.S. hurricane births
      http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/hu/fertility_jpope2010.pdf

      Abstract Anecdotal evidence has suggested increased fertility rates resulting from catastrophic events in an area. In this paper, we measure this fertility effect using storm advisory data and fertility data for the Atlantic and Gulf- coast counties of the USA. We find that low-severity storm advisories are associated with a positive and significant fertility effect and that high-severity advisories have a significant negative fertility effect. As the type of advisory goes from least severe to most severe, the fertility effect of the specific advisory type decreases monotonically from positive to negative. We also find some other interesting demographic effects.