Forecasting s-curves is hard – Constance Crozier
▻https://constancecrozier.com/2020/04/16/forecasting-s-curves-is-hard
In this case, the s-curve model is a perfect fit – I have literally generated the data from an s-curve. This means that if there was zero error then we would only need three points to find the curve. All this to say, that this example is idealistic – in reality there is unlikely to be a curve that fits the data so well. Below is an animation showing the best fit s-curve (found using a least squares optimisation) as more data becomes available.