• Europe Holds No Promise For the Middle East - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/02/europe-holds-no-promise-for-the-middle-east.html

    Last week, they were uttered publicly by a senior German politician, Hans-Gert Pöttering, one of those closest to Chancellor Angela Merkel. Pöttering, who served for many years as president of the European Parliament, spoke at a packed auditorium in the center of Brussels. “Were it not for the Holocaust, Germany would not have abstained at the UN vote on the recognition of Palestine as a non-member state,” said the man who was appointed last year to chair the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, named after the first post-World War II German chancellor who was responsible for the reparations agreement between Israel and Germany. “It would have voted in favor.” Pöttering did not attempt to conceal his hope that Avigdor Liberman — whose name (meaning “a beloved man” in German) does not suit him, he said — would not be coming back to Brussels as Israel’s foreign minister.
    He finished by saying that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict makes it hard for Europe to conduct a dialogue with the Muslim world. “Previously, the Israelis did not want European involvement, now you are also opposed to American involvement,” he lashed out.
    On the stage, to the left of the German speaker, sat Adm. (Res.) Ami Ayalon, who has served as a cabinet minister, head of the Shin Bet security service and commander of the navy, and Gilad Sher, a lawyer who was Prime Minister Ehud Barak’s chief of staff and policy coordinator. In the front row were philanthropist and peace activist Orni Petruschka, Ayalon and Sher’s partner in the leadership of Blue White Future, [a pro-peace movement] and the organization’s CEO, Dar Nadler. They came to the capital of the European Union at the instigation of the Hanns Seidel Foundation to persuade the Europeans to exert their influence on the Americans. Ayalon and Sher sought to equip the Europeans with their diplomatic blueprint, the gist of which is Israeli recognition of a Palestinian state and the launch of negotiations on a permanent agreement, based on the Arab Peace Initiative (peace and normalization of relations with members of the Arab League in return for Israeli withdrawal to the 1967 borders) and a declaration that Israel has no territorial claims on the eastern side of the security/separation fence.
    The leaders of Blue White Future warned that European inactivity until the end of negotiations on land exchanges, the division of Jerusalem and a solution to the Palestinian refugee problem would bring about the demise of a Jewish and democratic Israel. They presented senior EU officials with a plan for the immediate evacuation of all settlements east of the fence, including a precise mapping of vacant lands within the Green Line [the de facto 1967 border] on which the Israeli evacuees could be resettled. They recommended that everyone learn the lessons of the unilateral Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, which dropped the Strip like a ripe fruit into the hands of Hamas (Europe supported the disengagement from Gaza) and replace that totally unilateral action with coordinated unilateral steps.
    The Seidel Foundation invited me to join the fascinating three-day journey of the “Blue White Future” leadership through the endless corridors of the European Union. I participated in meetings with leading officials of the European Commission, with a senior official in the office of EU foreign secretary Catherine Ashton and with members of the European Parliament. I was exposed to the frustrations of the umbrella organization of 27 states, whose population is greater than that of the United States. Parliament member Ivo Vajgl, Slovenia’s former foreign minister, recounted how Israeli government ministers refused to meet the European Parliament delegation, which he headed, and Israeli members of Knesset [parliament] left them waiting a long time outside their meeting room. “Israel is humiliating us,” said Vajgl. 
    I was struck by the helplessness of the European Union, which was honored last year with the Nobel Peace Prize, regarding peacemaking between Israel and the Palestinians, an end to settlements and to the occupation.
    All the senior officials we met in Brussels, without exception, listened attentively to the guests’ plan, made remarks and at the end sent them to Berlin, Paris, London and Prague, too, which had voted at the UN against upgrading status of the Palestinian Authority. One journalist even asked angrily, “Why did you come here, anyway?” When Ayalon, Sher and Petruschka explained why economic sanctions would not jump-start the diplomatic process, the hosts said they were in complete agreement that there’s no chance the 27 countries represented in Brussels could reach agreement regarding punitive steps of any kind against Israel for its construction in the settlements.
    Past experience teaches us that the recommendations of the European consuls to take steps against Israel, such as imposing economic sanctions on the settlements — as published this week in the Haaretz newspaper — are gathering dust in the desk drawers of the European Union.
    On the other hand, they stressed that as long as Israel continues to expend settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, there’s not even a slim chance that members of the Union will arrive at a consensus regarding the upgrading of Israel’s position. In addition, a senior European official pointed with no small amount of embarrassment to the fact that the EU is incapable of agreeing to include Hezbollah in the list of terror organizations, even after the official Bulgarian government investigation concluded with certainty that the organization was responsible for the attack in which five Israeli tourists were murdered last year in a Bulgarian resort town.
    Europe is mostly busy with its own problems, the financial crises and the integration of new members (next in line is Croatia. For the information of reader Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — this was made possible after the Croatians met the EU’s demand to erase from their constitution the article stating that Croatia is the national home of the Croatian people). The Quartet, the mechanism established with the aim of advancing the diplomatic process, has turned into a joke. In answer to my question about former Prime Minister Tony Blair’s activity as the special envoy of the Quartet (the US, Russia, the European Union and the UN), the two officials sitting across from us exchanged meaningful looks and burst out laughing. They said the EU has decided to stop funding Blair, who has disappeared somewhere in East Jerusalem.
    Thus, the Europeans are directing their eyes westward, to the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize laureate, US President Barack Obama. So far, the Union’s special envoy to the Middle East, Andreas Reinicke, is the only bearer of good news. He says EU’s foreign policy chief, Lady Catherine Ashton, and Obama have set themselves a one-year deadline to bring about a permanent settlement, not an interim arrangement, not a Palestinian state within temporary borders, but rather the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state side-by-side with the state of Israel. The impression in Ashton’s office, on the other hand, is that Obama will focus his meeting with Netanyahu on the Iranian nuclear issue. We heard there that at his last meeting with Ashton, each time the European minister wished to raise the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Netanyahu said this was a marginal issue which deflects attention from the big Iranian threat. “If this is a marginal issue”, Ashton is said to have answered, “let’s get it out of our way so we can be free to deal with the main issue.” The prime minister, we were told, did not respond.
    Brussels hopes the next Israeli government will have a response. They are not holding their breath.

  • Peurs de la shiisation aux Emirats Arabes Unis

    Sources have revealed to Al-Monitor that authorities in the United Arab Emirates recently informed approximately 125 Lebanese citizens residing there on work permits that they must leave the country. The officials refrained from telling the deportees the reasons behind their deportation.

    This action is part of a growing campaign being conducted by the UAE against Lebanese nationals, especially Shiites, out of the fear that they may have ties to Hezbollah or the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

    Mais aussi en Libye

    Separately, Al-Monitor has learned that the September 11 attack on the US Consulate in Benghazi last year was almost replicated on the Iranian Embassy in the Libyan capital of Tripoli. Approximately three weeks ago, the Iranian Embassy in Tripoli was warned about unconfirmed information that Libyan Sunni Islamist militants were planning to storm the embassy, kill those inside, and set the premises ablaze. Embassy officials took the issue to Libyan government authorities, but were told that in the event of such an attack, the government would be powerless to protect the embassy given the Salafists sophisticated weaponry and popular support.
    The reason behind the planned attack can be traced to the widely held belief that the Iranian religious authorities have sent Lebanese and Iranians to spread the teachings of Shiite Islam in Libya, which is predominantly Sunni Muslim. Salafist sheikhs, led by the Association of Muslim Scholars, have been propagating these claims in Libyan newspapers and television programs. Sheikh Sadiq al-Ghariani, the mufti of Libya, has put his full weight behind the issue, having repeatedly warned in recent months of “a Shiite onslaught on Libyan minds.” He called this alleged campaign tashiiya`, which in Arabic means “Shiitization” (or “funeral”), and accused Iranian authorities for being “the group behind it all.” Iran’s ambassador to Libya, Hossein Akbari, is said to have recently scheduled an urgent meeting with Sheikh Ghariani to explain to him that the claims that Iran was conducting such a campaign in Libya were entirely baseless. He asked that he help defuse the charged atmosphere among Salafist in order to prevent an attack on the Tripoli embassy.

    Read more : http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/02/uae-deports-lebanese-expatriates.html#ixzz2MCayDHai

  • A high-level Syrian official has confirmed that the government in Damascus is open to dialogue initiatives to resolve the ongoing crisis, in particular because Moscow continues to advise Syrian authorities that they must respond to international initiatives in order to improve the regime’s image abroad and to provide their allies with something with which to endorse them. The Russians have also been emphasizing that the armed Syrian opposition faces a dilemma regarding whether to engage the regime in dialogue: agreeing to a compromise — thus forfeiting their call for toppling the regime and therefore possibly further dividing their ranks — or refusing to compromise, which could lose them diplomatic clout.

    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/02/obstacles-remain-syria-negotiations.html

  • LE Parti travailliste israélien, porte-parole de l’Autorité palestinienne ? Y a-t-il un véritable danger d’effrondrement de l’Autorité palestinienne ?

    PA Collapse Will Be ’Catastrophe,’ Says Knesset Labor Leader - Al-Monitor : the Pulse of the Middle East
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/02/isaac-herzog-we-must-aim-for-an-interim-agreement.html

    You met last week with Salam Fayyad, and came back very concerned
    “I was the first Israeli statesman to go to Ramallah after the elections. We had a very deep conversation. We had talked for a long time about meeting. We know each other a long time. During the election campaign, it was less convenient. I assume that he wanted to exchange views and make himself heard regarding one substantive issue, before any talk regarding a diplomatic process. That issue is: the collapse of the Palestinian Authority. He told me, clearly and unequivocally, that ‘If we continue to be dependent every single month on the decision of Israel’s prime minister to free up our tax funds — we will collapse. Because we have responsibility over the territory and over people and it’s impossible to build it from hand to mouth, they suffer from great budgetary suffocation and the systems are collapsing.”
    Herzog adds, “I tell everyone — the collapse of the Palestinian Authority will be a catastrophe not only to the Authority, but to the Israelis and the entire peace camp. True, the delay in payment stemmed, first and foremost, from the unilateral Palestinian move in the United Nations, but at the end of the day Israel must coolly calculate its own interests. Israel should continue to observe the Paris Protocol and transfer the funds to the Authority. This is a burning issue, even before the diplomatic process.”

    Did Salam Fayyad ask you to transmit any kind of message?
    “Of course. This was one of them — to sound the alarm regarding the Authority’s collapse. That was, first of all, the public message, and I also transmitted other required information to the relevant entities. But it’s not about me vis-à-vis the prime minister. The issue is immediate, in other words if you bring President Obama and talk about a process, we need to determine what kind of process is the right one to take place now."

  • J’avais repéré cet article d’Elie Hajj hier sur AL-Monitor, et je m’étais demandé ce que c’était que ce tissu de fadaises. Angry Arab confirme aujourd’hui qu’il s’agit d’une théorie du complot répandue par le bureau de presse Hariri. On a déjà vu cette théorie totalement loufoque hier dans L’Orient-Le Jour, évidemment reprise par le député Daher, et réfutée par l’armée et le Akhbar :
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/02/lebanon-sunnis-feel-threatened-arsal.html

    However what is transpiring behind the scenes is the most worrisome. Apparently there is a plan at work on the ground, in political corridors, and within the media designed to strike the Future Movement and Sunni hardliners in Lebanon, which is based on the following:

    Plotting the events in Arsal and provoking a response from the locals, which in turn allows them to claim that Arsal is a hotbed of fundamentalist jihadists, specifically from the Syrian Jabhat al-Nusra. The objective of all this is to seal off Arsal and prevent its people from supporting the rebels in Syria. It justifies Hezbollah’s weapons by saying that there are illegal hotbeds, which pose security threats outside the areas controlled by Hezbollah. This will require political action on the basis that there is targeted community in Lebanon.

    Residents of Arsal claim that the military patrol included Hezbollah personnel, citing evidence that others were killed aside from the sergeant and the captain. One of the dead could possibly be the man for whom Hezbollah held a funeral in Arabsalim in the south on Sunday, whom they claim died in Syria.

    They exaggerate the actions of Sheikh Ahmad al-Assir and his tourist convoy to the mountains of the Keserwan District a week ago to make him appear as if he speaks for the Sunnis when in reality he does not. In response they organize popular movements in support of the army and its leadership in Christian and Shiite areas, as happened after the killing of Sheik Abdul-Wahed in Akkar. They also launch a media campaign targeting and insulting a particular Lebanese group.

    Pour mémoire, chaque fois qu’il se passe quelque chose de grave au Liban, on trouvera un député du 14 Mars pour expliquer que c’est une provocation du Hezbollah pour humilier les sunnites ou les chrétiens. C’est une sorte d’automatisme.
    http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/future-movement%E2%80%99s-tripoli-rally-enduring-failure

    Kabbara scaled new heights in this regard when he charged that the murderer of the young girl Myriam al-Ashkar on the beach at Alma was an intelligence officer sent by Hezbollah and Syria to spy on the Maronite Church!

  • Lire absolument l’analyse de Jean Aziz sur la guerre ouverte des mouvements jihadistes (sunnites) contre l’armée libanaise : Syrian Jihadist Groups Take Conflict To Lebanon
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/02/sunni-awakening-lebanon.html

    On Friday, Feb. 1, the Lebanese army lost two soldiers, a sergeant and a captain, who were part of a strike force unit that belonged to Lebanese Army Intelligence. The two soldiers died during a clash between the army unit and armed Sunni fundamentalists in ​​Arsal, which is near the Syrian border in the Bekaa Valley. That incident has many political and security dimensions and it confirms, as Al-Monitor has been reporting, that Jabhat al-Nusra is now in Lebanon and that the group’s activities are about to become public.