/2013

Political Islam Considers Arabism Its Enemy - Al-Monitor : the Pulse of the Middle East
▻http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2013/10/political-islam-brotherhood-arabism.html

Political Islam acted as if its first enemy in all Arab lands were nationalism and its second enemy Arabism, whether when directly applied or in its intellectual-political manifestation: Arab nationalism.

Point de vue discutable, ne serait-ce qu’en raison de la difficulté à s’accorder sur UNE forme d’islam politique. Il faut se souvenir aussi que certains évoquent, par exemple dans le cas du Hezbollah, l’idée d’un islamo-nationalisme...

Fatah Leader Open to Army Entering Lebanon’s Palestinian Camps - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East
▻http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2013/10/palestine-fatah-leader-interview-camps-lebanon.html

When asked about the real situation in the Palestinian camps, which are rumored to house terrorist cells and have been transformed into waypoints to gear up and carry out bomb attacks on Lebanese territories, Ahmad affirmed that “using camps to carry out terrorist acts is impermissible.” He pointed out that the Palestinian leadership, led by President Abbas, clearly and unequivocally stated that security in the camps be maintained in full coordination with the Lebanese army and official security institutions. “We will not allow a repeat of the Nahr al-Bared scenario, no matter what the cost.”

Fatah Ready for Reconciliation - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East
▻http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2013/09/hamas-fatah-reconciliation-gaza-rajoub.html

Regarding Egyptian patronage and Cairo’s role in sponsoring the Palestinian reconciliation, and in light of the current situation and the status quo in Egypt, Rajoub said, “We approve everything in the Egyptian agreement. However, the Egyptians have been embittered because Palestinians are messing with Egypt’s national security.” This was said in reference to the latest statements to Al-Hayat by the Egyptian Interior Minister Nabil Fahmy.

Est-ce qu’il existe des articles (notamment dans les médias arabes) qui relient le coup contre les ikhwan égyptiens ce soir et la destitution de l’Émir du Qatar la semaine dernière ?

France, Saudi Arabia Increase Syria Coordination Post-Qusair
▻http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2013/06/france-saudi-arabia-coordinate-syria-efforts-qusair-geneva.html

The battle for Aleppo, for which the Syrian army is preparing, has become a joint French-Saudi concern. Another concern that French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius shared yesterday [June 11] with Saudi intelligence chief Bandar bin Sultan and Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal was how to avoid turning the upcoming Geneva conference into a defeat of the Syrian opposition. That concern is reasonable in light of the current balance of power following the military victory by the Syrian army and Hezbollah in Qusair.

Il a donc été décidé que le Centaure de César, qui est super-haram, sera prochainement détruit par une foule de parisiens hystériques :

http://paris1900.lartnouveau.com/paris06/centaure/1cent4.JPG

Jordanie
La Jordanie en proie avec les conséquences de la guerre en Syrie au Nord et les violences tribales au Sud, notamment dans la ville de Maan.

More Problems Than Ever
By: Tamer al-Samadi Translated from Al-Hayat (Pan Arab)

▻http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2013/06/jordan-government-problems-ensour-syria.html

“To avoid the collapse of the economy, Jordanian Prime Minister Abdullah Ensour is likely to take harsh decisions in the coming period, starting by raising electricity prices, which would surely go beyond the gradual cancelation of subsidies on bread and other commodities. This is seen as an attempt to obtain a financial loan worth $2 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). However, these decisions that have yet to be announced reflect the deep trouble Ensour is likely to face in the coming period. Ensour has an economic mindset. He was educated in the United States and France and his reputation has yet to be tarnished with accusations of corruption.

The biggest challenge facing the government — mired in economic and political complexities — is the bloody violence that has been gripping the city of Maan in southern Jordan for four days”.

(…) Official circles revealed to Al-Hayat that the Syrian file’s successive developments “urged powerful leading figures within the state to demand the current government’s dismissal and the declaration of the war cabinet as soon as possible in order to counter the repercussions of the Syrian disaster, [as] anticipated by the Hashemite Kingdom.”

Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Courts Hezbollah
▻http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2013/04/saudi-arabia-ambassador-lebanon.html

Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to Lebanon, Ali Awad al-Asiri, has been the focus of attention lately as a result of remarkable political overtures toward internal factions that the kingdom, and its ambassador, had had frosty or nonexistent relations with, particularly the Free Patriotic Movement.

Qatar and the Five-Minute Summit – une traduction du Safir au sujet du sommet de la Ligue arabe.
▻http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2013/04/qatar-arab-league-summit-hegemony-syria-crisis.html

In comparison to the Libyan situation, this decision reflects a total lack of legal reasoning. When it was decided that the National Transitional Council should be granted Libya’s seat, this organization had already been recognized by the UN Security Council. The Libyan regime had already lost control of the capital city of Tripoli, as well as several other regions, all of which had been taken over by the armed opposition. Thus, all the elements of sovereign rule were in place.

The situation in Syria, however, is totally different. The regime is still present in Damascus, and many countries still recognize its legitimacy. Moreover, this regime remains the Syrian representative at the UN, and this is precisely what causes the glaring contradiction between the Arab League and the UN. Despite the fact that Qatar and its allies will act to expel the Syrian regime from the UN, there are nevertheless a number of countries which will stand in opposition to this move, for fear that the same thing could very well happen to them in the future.

Will (or when) will Egypt collapse ?

There are numerous warnings coming from multiple sources indicating that Egypt — both the state and the society — is sliding toward the unknown. The economic and political situation is going from bad to worse. Moreover, the new government is not seeing the gravity of this threat and is not dealing with this deterioration as if it were a crisis. Instead, it is making shallow justifications regarding internal and external plots against the Islamic project, all the while accusing the opposition and the media of receiving foreign funding and working according to the whims of foreign agendas and interests.

▻http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2013/04/egyptian-state-collapse.html

Syrie. Propos sans surprise de Haytham al-Manna, chef du Comité National de Coordination des Forces de Changement Démocratique en Syrie (CNCD) : une solution militaire ne résoudrait rien ; la Syrie doit choisir entre solution politique ou somalisation ; les opposants au régime n’ont pas la possibilité de l’emporter par des moyens militaires ; Assad ne s’est pas résolu à négocier ; le régime est capable de supporter encore deux années d’affrontement. Il est également convaincu que le départ d’Assad ne mettrait pas fin à la violence et que les Frères Musulmans ne renonceront pas à leurs privilèges.

Syrian Opposition: Assad’s Overthrow Wouldn’t End Violence

By: Mohammad al-Shazli Translated from Al-Hayat
Posted on : April 9 2013

▻http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2013/04/syria-violence-assad-departure.html

The head of the National Coordination Body for Democratic Change (NCC) in exile, Haytham al-Manna, said that the Syrian regime is seeking to “clone the Algerian solution” to solve the crisis in the country. He called on “friends” of the regime to pressure the regime for serious negotiations that can “rescue those whose hands haven’t been stained with the blood of Syrians.”

In an interview with Al-Hayat, Manna added that the conflict could not be solved militarily. He said, “We have the choice of either the somalization of the country or a political solution. We blame the regime for wanting to clone the Algerian solution; it will not succeed.” He added that the opposition “will not succeed in reaching a military solution.”

“Thus far, the regime has not made any progress toward serious negotiations," he said. “It is focusing on public relations and agreeing to anything it is offered. However, when it comes to implementation, there is no practical element to this approval.”

#Syrian_National_Coalition #somalization #Lakhdar_Brahimi #political_solution #transitional_government #Haytham_al_Manna #Muslim_Brotherhood #National_Coordination_Body_for_Democratic_Change

Arab Spring, Syria Crisis Were Key In Turkish-Israeli Rapprochement

By : Mustafa al-Labbad Translated from As-Safir (Lebanon)

First Published : March 26, 2013/ Posted on : March 31 2013
Translated by : Al-Monitor

▻http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2013/03/turkey-israel-rapprochement-arab-spring.html

Relations entre Ankara et Israël et perception de leurs intérêts réciproques :

Relations entre les deux pays
– Elles sont anciennes. Ankara a été le premier pays musulman de la région à reconnaître Israël et aura servi à limiter son isolement diplomatique. Cette relation s’est longtemps inscrite dans le cadre de la guerre froide.
– La doctrine stratégique des deux pays était alors articulée autour de menaces communes que constituaient les Etats arabes radicaux de la région : Egypte, Iraq et Syrie.
– La chute du régime soviétique a rapproché les deux pays.
– Après l’occupation de l’Iraq en 2003, la Turquie s’est rapprochée de la Syrie et de l’Iran : dès lors, elle n’avait plus de voisins hostiles et pouvait imaginer une diplomatie régionale plus ambitieuse.
– Les deux alliés ayant perdu leurs ennemis communs, la perception de leurs rôles respectifs dans la région s’en trouvait altérée et ouvrait la voie à une confrontation diplomatique.
– Cette confrontation s’est déclarée à la Conférence de Davos (2009) et aggravée avec l’affaire de la flotilla (2010).
– Le Printemps arabe, y compris la chute probable du régime d’Assad, ne pouvait qu’inciter la Turquie et Israël à réfléchir ensemble à l’avenir de la Syrie et de la région.

Perception israélienne
– Un accord global avec les Palestiniens ne pourra être trouvé que grâce à des mouvements politiques organisés pouvant influencer la rue arabe.
– Une explosion régionale provoquerait de graves difficultés économiques et sécuritaires pour Israël. La Turquie étant le premier soutien régional des Frères musulmans, un rapprochement ne peut qu’être bénéfique. La frontière israélo-syrienne s’en trouverait mieux sécurisée.

Perception turque.
– La diplomatie turque n’est désormais plus en mesure d’influencer Damas. Son « soft power » s’est érodé.
– Sa coordination avec Israël et son alliance avec le Qatar renforcent sa main face à l’Iran et ses alliés régionaux, facilitent la réconciliation avec ses citoyens kurdes et la place en bonne position dans la négociation sur les droits gaziers dans le cadre des récentes découvertes de gaz au large des côtes de Chypre.

Conclusion : Les relations entre la Turquie et Israël sont bonnes quand les intérêts de chacune des deux parties sont satisfaits, quand leurs préoccupations sécuritaires se rejoignent et quand leurs rivaux stratégiques sont les mêmes. C’est la situation actuelle qui explique les « excuses » d’Israël à Ankara. A contrario, leurs relations se dégradent quand leurs intérêts nationaux divergent et quand leurs ennemis communs se raréfient. En définitive, le Printemps arabe aura été le « liant » de la réconciliation entre les deux pays.

Summary : While the US has helped broker a rapprochement between Israel and Turkey, Mustafa al-Labbad argues that the relationship between the two countries is based on mutual interests and is directly tied to the events in Syria.
“The coordination between Ankara and Tel Aviv will soon put Damascus between the grips of a vise, minimizing the spillover effect of the civil war taking place within Syria upon Israel’s borders. Tel Aviv fears that, should Syria collapse, Israel’s northern border will be exposed to attacks by insurgents with radical Islamic affiliations. The regional balance of power in the Middle East changed after the phone conversation that took place several days ago [March 22] between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in which the former apologized to the latter for the killing of nine Turkish citizens in the incident involving the 2010 freedom flotilla and offered to pay compensation to their family members. After the 2010 event, the relationship between Ankara and Tel Aviv deteriorated to the extent of harming American interests in the region ; Israel and Turkey had historically depended on the relationship in order to construct diplomatic arrangements that effectively safeguarded their own interests.
Therefore, American President Barack Obama set out to repair Turkish-Israeli ties. During his visit to Israel, he encouraged Netanyahu to speak to Erdogan so that the door might be reopened to an improvement in relations. To be more precise, Netanyahu and Erdogan’s conversation highlighted developments in the Middle East in the wake of the Arab Spring, and the desire of both nations to cooperate in facing them.”

A Istanbul, le 19 mars, le Qatar impose la formation d’un « gouvernement provisoire » syrien et la nomination d’un « premier ministre », Ghassan Hitto (un citoyen américain), au détriment de celui qui avait été précédemment choisi par ce même Qatar et l’Arabie saoudite (Asaad Mustafa, ancien ministre de l’Agriculture syrien). La prochaine étape pourrait être l’admission de ce gouvernement provisoire au sein de la Ligue arabe (Réunion à Doha le 26 mars) au siège jadis occupé par la Syrie d’Assad. Ce « coup » diplomatique prend à contrepied l’Arabie saoudite, une partie de l’opposition syrienne qui a gelé sa participation aux travaux de la Coalition nationale des forces de la révolution et de l’opposition syrienne dont le président, Moaz Khatib, s’était résolu à favoriser une solution diplomatique plutôt que l’option militaire (le « moindre des deux maux »), les Frères musulmans qui ont fini par se rallier au choix qatari par crainte de voir revenir l’Accord de Genève (30 juin 2012) qui prévoit la participation du régime d’Assad à un gouvernement transitoire et Lakhdar Brahimi, Représentant spécial conjoint des Nations Unies et de la Ligue arabe pour la Syrie, qui militait pour que l’opposition syrienne accepte le maintien d’Assad pour quelque temps encore (2013, voire 2014).

Qatar Trumps Saudi Arabia On Syrian Opposition Leader

Mohammad Ballout Translated from As-Safir (Lebanese independent ’leftist’ newspaper)
▻http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2013/03/qatar-appoint-coalition-head-syria.html#ixzz2OFaCyaxb
A “temporary Syrian government” for the opposition ... a Qatari coup against Saudi Arabia in the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (NCR) ... and the sabotaging of the US-Russian understanding. The first fruit of the above is that 12 NCR members froze their memberships a few hours after provisional prime minister Ghassan Hitto presided over his new Syrian “government” in contravention of the deal that Qatar and Saudi brokered among the various wings in the NCR.

#Qatar #Saudi Arabia #National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces #Arab League #Ghassan Hitto #Asaad Mustafa #Moaz Khatib #US #Russia #Geneva Accord #Muslim Brotherhood #Syrian National Council #Mustafa al-Sabbagh #John Kerry #Sergei Lavrov #Lakhdar Brahimi

Le Safir revient sur le rapprochement entre Russe et Américains sur la question syrienne : John Kerry déclare vouloir des négociations entre (nommément) Assad et l’opposition : Kerry Backs Political Solution ; Khatib Faces Dissent. Quelqu’un a prévenu Laurent Fabius ?
▻http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2013/03/us-supports-negotiations-syria.html

This purpose of this conference was to clearly and unambiguously favor a negotiated settlement which converged with the Russian viewpoint and confirmed that the Russian-American rapprochement had been transformed into an agreement worth putting to the test.

In the joint news conference with his Norwegian counterpart yesterday, the American secretary of state listed a number of American and European objections concerning the role that President Bashar al-Assad might play in the transitional process. He called on the Syrian president by name to sit down with representatives of the opposition at the negotiation table, negating the previous demand that he be removed from office.

Kerry said, “We want to see Assad and the Syrian opposition sitting at the same table to establish a transitional government as laid out in the Geneva Accords.”

L’article original :
▻http://www.assafir.com/Article.aspx?EditionId=2411&articleId=1565&ChannelId=58005&Author=محمدبلوط

خلال ساعات فقط وبطريقة متزامنة، انفجر الخلاف داخل «الائتلاف» السوري المعارض حول دعوة رئيسه معاذ الخطيب إلى التفاوض مع النظام، مشيراً إلى بدء العدّ العكسي لإخراجه من زعامة «الائتلاف»، فيما كان الراعي الدولي الأول الأميركي لأكبر كتل المعارضة السورية تأثيراً، يحسم أمره في مؤتمر صحافي في واشنطن، ويعلن على لسان وزير خارجيته جون كيري انحيازه الواضح والصريح لحلّ تفاوضي يرجح الوجهة الروسية، ويؤكد أن التقارب الروسي ـ الأميركي أصبح تفاهماً يستحق الاختبار.

وأسقط وزير الخارجية الأميركي من مؤتمره الصحافي مع نظيره النروجي، ظهر أمس، دفعة واحدة كتلة من الاعتراضات الأميركية والأوروبية حول موقع الرئيس بشار الأسد في العملية الانتقالية، وذلك بتسميته الرئيس السوري بالاسم في الدعوة التي أطلقها إلى إجلاسه، بجانب ممثلين عن المعارضة، إلى طاولة حوار سياسي حول سوريا، بعد أن كان المطلب الأولي هو تنحيته.

وقال كيري «نريد أن يجلس الأسد والمعارضة السورية إلى طاولة المفاوضات، بغية تشكيل حكومة انتقالية ضمن الإطار التوافقي الذي تمّ التوصل إليه في جنيف».

Les menaces à peine voilées des pétromonarchies contre le Liban
▻http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2013/03/lebanon-gulf-relations.html

According to the same observers, those words meant that “these states had gone beyond feeling resentment, to tacitly warn of possible security-related consequences brought about by the incomplete compliance with the Baabda Declaration. There is a major question mark over the letter’s mention of the Lebanese people’s interests and safety; for everyone knows that there are close to 600,000 Lebanese who work in the Gulf states, and whose fate might be at risk if there were a breach in Lebanon’s neutrality in relation to its Arab milieu and more specifically to the Syrian crisis.”

A source knowledgeable about the letter described it as “unprecedented,” further adding that it “was brought about by the Gulf states’ feeling of resentment toward Lebanon’s stance vis-à-vis the events taking place in a number of Arab countries. Some positions espoused by [Lebanese] politicians had very negative repercussions and jeopardized the livelihoods of peaceful Lebanese working abroad in a manner that reversed the previously held perception that they were a peaceful and open people who only harbored goodwill towards their brothers.”

En réalité, ça fait des années que les ressortissants libanais (principalement chiites) subissent expulsions et vexations dans le Golfe, que les pétromonarchies organisent le boycott du tourisme au Liban.

Accessoirement, cela pose la question de l’économie de la dette instaurée par Rafic Hariri, et le poids politique de la dépendance du Liban à ses créanciers.

Hawks in Syrian Opposition Resist Dialogue Initiative - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East
▻http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2013/02/syrian-coalition-boycotting-conference.html

The National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (NCR) will not talk to the Russians, Americans or even the Friends of Syria Group, which will meet next Thursday [Feb. 28] in Rome.

Damascus Open to Dialogue With ‘Moderate Militants’ - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East
▻http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2013/03/russia-syria-dialogue-call.html

As a possible solution to the crisis, the Syrian regime might agree to the assimilation of some armed factions into the army, following a cease-fire that would precede work on a political resolution. The Syrian regime never abandons a sometimes surprising optimism in its ability to regain the political initiative, during the worst of circumstances.

Lebanon and the Arab Civil Wars: An Import-Export Business – Talal Salman
▻http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2013/02/lebanon-arab-civil-wars.html

When the Arabs “succeeded” in importing the worst aspects of the Lebanese regime of so-called “pluralist democracy,” designed to camouflage its confessional and sectarian nature, they added a touch of Salafist fundamentalism to it. And now here they are exporting the virtues of these organizations. Afterward they began to export to this small and beautiful country preachers and missionaries preaching of “the righteous faith” — as if they were the first to discover it, and had no choice but to spread it...among the believers.

Here the cancer of sectarianism and confessionalism is ravaging Syria, prompted by the transformation of a political conflict into a project for waging civil war. It is ravaging Iraq as well, spreading the dangers of partition through civil conflict. At the same time it is spreading a climate of confrontation among Egyptians, both Muslim and Copt, who have historically enjoyed exemplary bonds of patriotic kinship.

[…]

The sectarian arsenal is always ready for use in confronting the call to building a viable state in Lebanon. Just as it is always ready to sow discord in national unity, and instability in existing states, in countries throughout the region. It is happening [in Lebanon] now, just as it has been arranged to happen in Syria and Iraq. Regardless of the nature of the ruling regime or the degree to which it approximates democracy.

There are those who are ready to finance this arsenal and to strengthen it with weapons and political cover. It is of no concern to them that they rule their “flock” by the sword, deprive them of elections, forbid women from driving a car, and force them to cover themselves in veils from head to toe … and then they go out “to champion” democracy in other countries by kindling the flames of civil war and sectarian butchery.

It is unfortunate that certain political forces in Lebanon are avid players in the game of stoking civil war, supposing it to be a surefire source of popularity — even if it comes at the expense of the country, the unity of its people, and the stability of its state.

Version originale:
▻http://www.assafir.com/Article.aspx?EditionId=2389&ChannelId=57455&ArticleId=1685&Author=طلال

Egypt’s Iran Policy Linked To Brotherhood
▻http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2013/02/ahmadinejad-visit-egyptian-foreign-policy.html

Malgré l’accueil grandiose qu’ils ont fait à Ahmadinejad les Frères Musulmans égyptiens ne seraient pas intéressés par un rehaussement des relations avec l’Iran (qui leur coûterait trop cher) mais par l’utilisation de ce pays contre les pays du Golfe.

...

The grandiose airport reception that Ahmadinejad received from his Egyptian counterpart triggered speculation that relations between the two countries was about to resume and that a new regional axis that would break the existing regional balance is about to be born. But the Iranian president’s meeting with Al-Azhar Mosque’s Grand Sheikh poured cold water on Iranian dreams. What are the future Egyptian-Iranian relations after Ahmadinejad’s visit to Cairo? What are the shortcomings in Egypt’s new regional policy as revealed by the Iranian president’s visit? We will try to answer those questions below.

...

So it seems that President Morsi’s administration does not really wish to upgrade its relations with Iran but only use them against the Gulf states. In addition, it will be difficult for the Egyptian administration to go further in its relations with Iran because of the price Egypt would have to pay. To expand its relations with Egypt, Iran is only paying an internal price: the various Iranian political wings must agree with each other on the nature of these relations. But Egypt’s price would be much higher. The Muslim Brotherhood would have to pay both an internal and an external price. One, their Salafist ally will hinder any rapprochement with Iran. Two, the alliance between Turkey and Qatar will also hinder a rapprochement. So Egyptian-Iranian relations will show limited improvement in the next phase. There will be neither estrangement nor a regional partnership. The latter is not realistic in light of the current balance of forces nor with the way Morsi is managing the Iranian file.