#H7N9 38 dont 10
China’s new bird flu sickens 38, kills 10
▻http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/04/11/38-sick-10-dead-chinese-bird-flu/2074711
After China reported 38 cases of a new, highly virulent flu strain that has killed 10 people, U.S. health agencies are moving into high gear to combat it.
This week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention activated its Emergency Operations Center at Level II, the second-highest level of alert. The last time that happened was during the Fukushima nuclear disaster after the Japanese tsunami in 2011.
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A vial of H7N9 flu virus from China was delivered by courier to a CDC laboratory Thursday afternoon. Up until now, researchers had used a model of the virus they built themselves from off-the-shelf DNA fragments available commercially, using the H7N9 genome information the Chinese posted online, Frieden said. Now that they have the live virus, a rapid test for H7N9 should be developed within a week, he said.
The H7N9 strain is very virulent, causing rapid pneumonia, respiratory failure, septic shock, multiple organ failures and swelling of the brain. However, three things make the strain less of a threat, Frieden said.
Tout va bien, mais le niveau de préoccupation augmente sensiblement.
There are also three things that worry health officials. H7N9 appears to be a very severe flu that kills at least 26% of those who get it, but the number of cases could be artificially low because Chinese health authorities are testing only people who are severely ill.
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In some ways, H7N9 is more worrisome than H1N1 was, said Nancy Cox, head of the CDC’s influenza division and one of the paper’s authors. “The fact that we are hearing about an additional two to five cases per day being identified in China raises the level of concern.”
Another problem is that this H7N9 virus doesn’t appear to sicken birds that are infected with it, making it hard to spot. It could lead to a silent, widespread epidemic among birds, Cox said. The virus has been found in chickens, ducks, pigeons and quail in China.
Finally, genetic analysis of the virus suggests it may be more able to adapt to humans and other mammals than a purely bird-based virus. That could make it more easily mutate to a person-to-person form.
La sous-estimation du nombre de porteurs de virus et donc la surestimation de la mortalité est un problème récurrent. Elle a d’ailleurs été utilisée pour faire monter le niveau d’angoisse lors de l’épisode #H1N1 de 2009-10.
see the infamous L’épidémie de grippe A pourrait tuer 30 000 personnes en France, d’A. Flahaut 12/05/09… ▻http://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2009/05/12/l-epidemie-de-grippe-a-pourrait-tuer-30-000-personnes-en-france_1191803_3244