Maps of global polarization, based on UN General Assembly votes:
►http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2013/10/10/maps-of-global-polarization
#UN #geopolitics
Maps of global polarization, based on UN General Assembly votes:
►http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2013/10/10/maps-of-global-polarization
Long commutes makes political involvement less likely:
▻http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2013/11/19/long-commutes-are-making-americans-more-politically-apathetic
The U.S. is losing its hypocrisy advantage
▻http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2013/10/22/the-u-s-is-losing-its-hypocrisy-advantage
#Manning’s and #Snowden’s leaks mark the beginning of a new era in which the U.S. government can no longer count on keeping its secret behavior secret. Hundreds of thousands of Americans today have access to classified documents that would embarrass the country if they were publicly circulated. As the recent revelations show, in the age of the cellphone camera and the flash drive, even the most draconian laws and reprisals will not prevent this information from leaking out. As a result, Washington faces what can be described as an accelerating hypocrisy collapse — a dramatic narrowing of the country’s room to maneuver between its stated aspirations and its sometimes sordid pursuit of self-interest. The U.S. government, its friends, and its foes can no longer plausibly deny the dark side of U.S. foreign policy and will have to address it head-on.
#NSA (superbe titre)
Maps of global polarization
►http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2013/10/10/maps-of-global-polarization
the ideologies of states in 2012 as estimated from their votes in the U.N. General Assembly. (...)
The U.S. is very lonely. There are a few dark blue countries but you can barely see them because they are so small (Israel and a few Pacific islands). Moreover, as I showed in an earlier post, the situation has gradually gotten worse. This cannot just be blamed on President George W. Bush: Alienation from the U.S. started before him and the tide was not turned by President Obama.
#cartographie #idéologie #nations_unies via @francoisbriatte
How to reduce the gender gap in one (relatively) easy step
►http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2013/10/01/how-to-reduce-the-gender-gap-in-one-relatively-easy-step
So why not institute the norm of using initials in all our work so that the youngest and most at risk scholars will have a fighting chance to make it up the ranks? Perhaps then we’ll see fewer highly talented researchers drop out of the profession well before their prime.
Comment réduire le fossé du #genre ? - Washington Post
►http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2013/10/01/how-to-reduce-the-gender-gap-in-one-relatively-easy-step
Erik Voeten et ses collègues se sont intéressés aux citations des articles de recherches et ils ont remarqué, que parmi bien des facteurs, le genre était l’un des meilleurs prédicateur pour savoir si un article sera cité ou pas. Amis scientifiques, nonbstant la qualité de vos recherches, si vous êtes une femme vous serez beaucoup moins cité que si vous êtes un homme. Comment résoudre ce problème ? Et l’auteur d’inviter les chercheuses à plus citer de femmes plutôt que de subir le même biais... L’autre (...)
The U.S. is still lonely at the United Nations
▻http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2013/09/25/the-u-s-is-still-lonely-at-the-united-nations
The graph above plots the ideal points of the United States and the average ideal points of states in various regions of the world (as defined by the United Nations) based on their votes in the U.N. General Assembly. This is essentially the same thing as estimating how liberal or conservative senators are based on their votes in the Senate. The neat trick Michael Bailey, Anton Strezhnev and I used is that we incorporated information about change and stability in the content of the United Nations’ agenda to identify when countries actually change their positions on issues (for a bit more, see here and here).
#visualisation #nations_unies via @francoisbriatte
Nate Silver and Political #Data : Every One of His State-level Presidential #Predictions Proved True | Singularity Hub
►http://singularityhub.com/2012/11/08/nate-silver-and-big-data-every-one-of-his-state-level-presidential-p
A former baseball statistician, Silver has made his name by aggregating state level polling data, and predicting the likelihood of victory by adjusting for different factors that have historically influenced electoral performance. He consistently rejected the conventional wisdom that the race was tied, and for that, he was cast as a left-wing nut peddling bad science.
Nate Silver et la #prévision par les #statistiques
►http://www.lemonde.fr/elections-americaines/article/2012/11/02/nate-silver-le-statisticien-promu-gourou-de-la-prediction-politique_1784852_
Donc on parle beaucoup de ce statisticien venu du baseball, qui a eu tout bon comme Paul le poulpe naguère. On en tire des leçons scientifiques même comme relevé par @rezo : ►http://tomroud.cafe-sciences.org/2012/11/07/5-lecons-scientifiques-du-succes-de-nate-silver
Il y a eu un film récemment « Moneyball » sur les premiers statisticiens de ce sport à Oakland, dans l’équipe des A’s, pas mal (Brad Pitt dans le rôle de Billy Beane)
►http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moneyball:_The_Art_of_Winning_an_Unfair_Game #sport #élections #US #chiffres #démocratie
D’après Wired « Obama Wins Nerdiest Election Ever »
►http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/11/nerdiest-election-ever/all
Sujet déjà évoqué là : ►http://seenthis.net/messages/85122
pas grand chose à voir, sinon Oakland :) ►http://www.liberation.fr/economie/2012/11/04/oakland-fait-de-la-subsistance_858013
au rayon les geeks et Obama, une enquête : “When the nerds go marching in”
▻http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/11/when-the-nerds-go-marching-in/265325
et une autre de Mother Jones “Under the Hood of Team Obama’s Tech Operation” ▻http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/11/inside-obama-campaign-tech-operation
Nate Silver, data guru returns to sport
▻http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/285f77a0-f518-11e2-94e9-00144feabdc0.html
Latin America gets its own 538.com, and it beats the polls in Chile
▻http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2013/12/09/latin-america-gets-its-own-538-com-and-it-beats-the-polls-in-chile
With different methodologies, Linzer’s, Silver’s and Wang’s forecasts were more accurate than those of any given pollster. They proved that aggregating polls could be more useful than using a single poll to predict the results of an election.
This prompted us, at TresQuintos, to develop a model of our own. We tested it on the 2013 presidential election in Chile, which took place Nov. 17. While we followed the methods of the poll aggregators named above, our model is mainly informed by statistics and political science literature (e.g. Andrew Gelman and Simon Jackman). Our forecast, too, was more accurate than the prediction of any given pollster.