New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury
▻http://www.pnas.org/content/110/13/E1191/1.full
Record lows in observed Arctic sea ice extent, together with climate model predictions of even greater ice declines in the future, have fueled speculations about new trans-Arctic shipping routes linking the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. However, little is known about how the projected geophysical changes in sea ice will impact the viability of ship navigation through the region.
To address this question, we applied numerical transportation analysis (1) to individual and ensemble-averaged datasets of projected sea ice thickness and concentration from seven respected general circulation models. This method allowed for an evaluation of peak-season (September) Arctic shipping potential for early- (2006–2015) and mid-21st century (2040–2059) and their comparison with past decades (1979–2005).