La Russie, hors OPEP, souffre mais fait contre mauvaise fortune bon cœur. Après tout, politiquement ils pourront toujours dire c’est la faute aux sanctions.
Mais stratégiquement, la baisse de prix du pétrole est une arme économique qui se retourne contre les producteurs américains. Et là, on est en pleine guerre…
Igor Sechin, PDG de Rosneft, pas tout à fait n’importe qui…
• à court terme
“The crisis situation creates additional possibilities. Naturally, some companies will not be able to operate in conditions of low oil prices. The crisis will trigger a redistribution of the market. Due to non-traditional production in the United States, we are on the brink of a big repartition,” Sechin said.
• pas très différent de ce que dit (ou pense) l’Arabie séoudite, mais il voit nettement plus loin :
The oil market needs a council of oil producers, consumers and regulators rather than cartel-type organizations, Sechin said.
“It should be admitted that, regrettably, the existing structures, such as the International Energy Agency or the Energy Charter Secretariat, have failed to fulfill their functions. I think cartel-type organizations have no potential, the future belongs to a market council that is to embrace both oil producers, oil consumers and representatives of regulators,” he said.
Sechin noted that oil prices had been going down for five months in a row. “I thinks all market players will reckon with fundamental and situational factors that have triggered the current situation,” he said.
Et ça, ça ne devrait pas faire plaisir à l’Arabie séoudite : rien de moins qu’une nouvelle organisation du marché remplaçant le cartel OPEP…
D’ailleurs, n’est-ce pas aussi cela que disent les analystes de la SG quand ils disent (je sollicite à peine…) que le marché a eu raison du cartel ?
Source Sechin : Oil market on brink of big repartition - Rosneft CEO— ▻http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/764101
Alexander Novak, ministre de l’Énergie : pas grave, on va faire les ajustements nécessaires pour le budget 2015
As Ruble Tumbles, Russian Minister Says Budget Needs Rethink
▻http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-oil-prices-budget/26715547.html
Novak told reporters on November 28 the budget’s assumed benchmark price of crude oil at $100 per barrel would have to be changed by the Ministry of Economic Development.
Novak said the average price of oil would still amount to $98 or $99 per barrel this year due to high prices in the first half of 2014.
He said the situation was predictable and “absolutely not critical” and forecast the price per barrel would rise in the medium term to between $85 and $90.
Leonid Fedun, vice-président de Lukoil : ça me rappelle la bulle Internet, un peu de ménage fera du bien.
US shale boom is same as dotcom bubble, says Russian oil executive - Telegraph
▻http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/11259411/US-shale-boom-is-same-as-dotcom-bubble-says-Russian-oil-executive.html
The rise of US shale is similar to the dotcom boom of the late Nineties and will cause many companies to fail, one of Russia’s top oil executives has warned.
Leonid Fedun, vice-president of Lukoil, Russia’s second-largest oil producer, believes that with the price of Brent crude and WTI at multi-year lows, fracking companies will struggle to make fracking profitable.