Abu Aardvark:
Domination and Tunisian Politics
▻http://abuaardvark.typepad.com November 15, 2014
I recently returned from a short trip to Tunis, where I had the chance to check in with a variety of folks about the current political scene. I met with senior members of both Nedaa Tounis and the Ennahda movement (including Rached Ghannouchi), along with a variety of journalists and civil society activists. I was particularly interested in exploring the role of the media in post-uprising Tunisia, for a paper I’ll be circulating soon (spoiler: like in Egypt, it’s played an extremely negative role).
But I was also keen to look for answers to a question which has been nagging at me ever since last month’s Nedaa Tounes victory in the Parliamentary elections: why doesn’t anyone seem to be as worried by the prospect of Nedaa Tounes “dominating” Tunisan politics as they were by the prospect of Ennahda “domination”? Or is that only for Islamists? Should Nedaa be looking to form an inclusive coalition rather than governing from one side of a polarized public? Should Ennahda be worried that an explicitly anti-Islamist government would try to crush it Ben Ali or Sisi-style?
After years of the world’s agonizing over the prospects of its domination, Ennahda chose to not field a candidate in the upcoming Presidential election (if only Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood had done the same), and surrendered the Prime Minister position in the face of an intense political crisis earlier this year. But Nedaa has done nothing of the sort. After winning the Parliamentary election, its candidate Beji Caid el-Sibsi is a shaky frontrunner to win the November 23 Presidential election. His victory would give Nedaa control over both the legislative and executive branches, with likely support for any sort of anti-Islamist agenda forthcoming from the unreformed judiciary. Shouldn’t everyone be worried about one side of a polarized political arena poised to potentially dominate all branches of government in a fragile democratic transition?
The most common answer I heard in my conversations was that nobody believed that Nedaa could hold itself together long enough to actually dominate. They pointed to the tensions between different parts of the Nedaa coalition, which includes both fervently anti-Islamist leftists and a neoliberal capitalist elites. Nedaa won only a narrow Parliamentary victory, and will have to form a coalition of some kind to govern. With only Sebsi and hatred of Ennahda holding Nedaa together, there would be no ideological consensus to impose upon Tunisia and numerous opportunities for the new party to fragment and turn upon itself. With Ennahda defeated, or if Sebsi passes from the scene, most seem to believe that the Nedaa coalition will fall apart and normal politics will ensue.❞